Where would you draft Gillislee in a rookie draft?

[RocketDr]

I don't think Gillislee will be as hard to predict as popular opinion appears to be. Blount wasn't that hard to predict last season. I think it is a different story for Rex and White tho. With that said, I would probably still wait till the 3rd round in a 10-team league.

[skip]

If I told you that Rookie RB 'X' were likely to have around 1,000 yards and 10 TDs -- as a floor -- for the next 2-4 seasons, you wouldn't give up a late-first round pick? Most of the guys drafted in rounds 2 or later will NEVER have 2-4 seasons with that kind of production.

You are operating under a big assumption on that production. Not only is that not his floor - I don't believe that's even his ceiling. His role in that offense is entirely speculative and coming from outside of the organization. I am certainly not expecting him to just walk in and produce like Blount...not even close. I'm figuring much closer to 800(ish) yards and 6-8 TDs in a good year and I expect at least one other back to have more total yards in that offense.

[Space Cowboy]

2.10.

How many times will people continue to fall for the NE RB scam?

[moishetreats]

If I told you that Rookie RB 'X' were likely to have around 1,000 yards and 10 TDs -- as a floor -- for the next 2-4 seasons, you wouldn't give up a late-first round pick? Most of the guys drafted in rounds 2 or later will NEVER have 2-4 seasons with that kind of production.

Are you saying that Gillislee has a floor of that for the next 2-4 seasons??
If so I think thats a bit crazy to come out and say given how crowded that backfield is.

You are operating under a big assumption on that production.

Yes I am.
And yes it is.
And I'm still saying it anyway.

Even if I were to tone it down, I'd say that I'm MUCH more confident that Gillislee will reach those numbers than any RB picked in round 2 or later.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

If I told you that Rookie RB 'X' were likely to have around 1,000 yards and 10 TDs -- as a floor -- for the next 2-4 seasons, you wouldn't give up a late-first round pick? Most of the guys drafted in rounds 2 or later will NEVER have 2-4 seasons with that kind of production.

Are you saying that Gillislee has a floor of that for the next 2-4 seasons??
If so I think thats a bit crazy to come out and say given how crowded that backfield is.

You are operating under a big assumption on that production.

Yes I am.
And yes it is.
And I'm still saying it anyway.

Even if I were to tone it down, I'd say that I'm MUCH more confident that Gillislee will reach those numbers than any RB picked in round 2 or later.

Gillislee is on essentially a 1 year deal, so I don't see how that is his floor for 2-4 years. It is a pretty optimistic floor for 1 year.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Blount 2015 or BJGE are the upper edge of outcomes for Gillislee, IMO. 2016 was a perfect storm for Blount, with the only other healthy RB being James White, who is not very good between the tackles, along with Brady missing 4 games to allow Blount to establish himself, and then the Pats losing their best red zone receiving threat in Gronk for most of the other games. Both Burkhead and Lewis are decent runners, and should get carries on a higher percentage of their snaps than White did. I think Gill is going to be the main 2 down back like Blount was, but I don't think it will be nearly as many carries for 1 guy as it was last season.

Best case is probably 200~220 carries, around 4 YPC (he is going to a 2-down role after being used in a COP role last year, so it will drop), and 8~10 TDs. Even if he does that, the Pats might cut him in 2018 in order to keep Jimmy G, since Gill has no guaranteed money after year 1.