Keeper Advise

[MR ROURKE]

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB - being kept
2. Drew Brees, NO - being kept
3. Peyton Manning, IND - maybe
4. Phillip Rivers, SD - being kept
5. Tom Brady, NE
6. Tony Romo, DAL - being kept
7. Matt Schaub, HOU
8. Matt Ryan, ATL
9. Eli Manning, NYG
10. Brett Favre, MIN
11. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
12. Jay Cutler, CHI


4 QB's are almost GUARANTEED to be kept

the top 12 here do not even include guys like Kolb, Henne, Alex Smith or Flacco all potential top 12 options this year..so thats 11 quality QB's (if you minus Favre) among 8 teams.....nobody is spending a 2nd round pick on a backup QB....so Schaub should fall to the 2nd and if not then a QB just as good will fall to the 2nd if not even the 3rd, or 4th. QB's are less of a luxury no matter how many points per TD pass - unless you begin to include bonuses, and points per completion, the demand is still not as high because the supply is always high.

And as far as drafting is concerned its usually better to do the OPPOSITE of what everyone else is doing in order to strategically outmaneuver other managers....so 4 teams are going to let go of decent RB's and WR's to keep a QB.....make them pay for that by drafting one of those RB's or WR's in the 1st and 2nd and then a QB in the 3rd guys like Kolb, Henne, Flacco should still be there, guaranteed.

There's the drop off. Schaub is a tier above the players that should be there at his position, which give a weekly advantage. Ture that QB's are not worth keeping if passing TD's are 4 points each, but there are many who call the leagues that are all TD's 6 pts QB heavy for a reason. It makes a difference of 4 or more points per week over you opponent at that positioon who is starting BigBen or M.Ryan. That could mean multiple victories over the year.

[princevincexoxo]

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB - being kept
2. Drew Brees, NO - being kept
3. Peyton Manning, IND - maybe
4. Phillip Rivers, SD - being kept
5. Tom Brady, NE
6. Tony Romo, DAL - being kept
7. Matt Schaub, HOU
8. Matt Ryan, ATL
9. Eli Manning, NYG
10. Brett Favre, MIN
11. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
12. Jay Cutler, CHI


4 QB's are almost GUARANTEED to be kept

the top 12 here do not even include guys like Kolb, Henne, Alex Smith or Flacco all potential top 12 options this year..so thats 11 quality QB's (if you minus Favre) among 8 teams.....nobody is spending a 2nd round pick on a backup QB....so Schaub should fall to the 2nd and if not then a QB just as good will fall to the 2nd if not even the 3rd, or 4th. QB's are less of a luxury no matter how many points per TD pass - unless you begin to include bonuses, and points per completion, the demand is still not as high because the supply is always high.

And as far as drafting is concerned its usually better to do the OPPOSITE of what everyone else is doing in order to strategically outmaneuver other managers....so 4 teams are going to let go of decent RB's and WR's to keep a QB.....make them pay for that by drafting one of those RB's or WR's in the 1st and 2nd and then a QB in the 3rd guys like Kolb, Henne, Flacco should still be there, guaranteed.

There's the drop off. Schaub is a tier above the players that should be there at his position, which give a weekly advantage. Ture that QB's are not worth keeping if passing TD's are 4 points each, but there are many who call the leagues that are all TD's 6 pts QB heavy for a reason. It makes a difference of 4 or more points per week over you opponent at that positioon who is starting BigBen or M.Ryan. That could mean multiple victories over the year.

Lets define the tiers and actually break down what it statistically MEANS to be a tier

Schaub 4800 yards
PManning 4500 yards
Romo 4500 yards
Rodgers 4400 yards
Brady 4400 yards
Brees 4400 yards
Big Ben 4300 yards
Rivers 4300 yards
EManning 4000 yards
Orton 3800 yards
Cutler 3700 yards
Flacco 3600 yards

Brees 34 TD's
PManning 33 TD's
Rodgers 30 TD's
Schaub 29 TD's
Brady 28 TD's
Rivers 28 TD's
EManning 27 TD's
Cutler 27 TD's
Big Ben 26 TD's
Romo 26 TD's

Now look at all of your "1st tier" guys...Schaub is definitely in there but then look at guys like Big Ben, Eli Manning, Cutler, then think of guys like Flacco, and Kolb who are all capable of putting up 4000 yards and 25+ TD's that can be had light years after Schaub. Nobody is arguing whether or not Schaub is a top 5 guy....the debate is the QB's value vs RB and WR value.


Lets say of the top 48 players
4-6 QB's are kept
4 TE's are kept
38-40 RB's/WR's are kept

if he lets VJax/Colston/Moreno go along with Matthews and Dez Bryant being there who is it going to be harder to replace? Schaub..or a young RB/WR2???? And what production will be easier to replace via draft?

Answer to question 1) RB/WR2
Answer to question 2) QB

if 4-6 managers are going to keep their QB's...thats only 6-8 managers that are going to be drafting QB's as a priority and trust me they all WONT go early (I can almost bet Schaub falls to 4 and guys like Eli Manning, Cutler Kolb, Flacco etc...drop into the 2nd/3rd round). EVERYBODY ELSE though meanwhile is going to be drafting WR's, RB's, and TE's. And all the managers that held onto their QB's are going to be in trouble because they are going to take huge hits at WR and RB.

[MR ROURKE]

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB - being kept
2. Drew Brees, NO - being kept
3. Peyton Manning, IND - maybe
4. Phillip Rivers, SD - being kept
5. Tom Brady, NE
6. Tony Romo, DAL - being kept
7. Matt Schaub, HOU
8. Matt Ryan, ATL
9. Eli Manning, NYG
10. Brett Favre, MIN
11. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
12. Jay Cutler, CHI


4 QB's are almost GUARANTEED to be kept

the top 12 here do not even include guys like Kolb, Henne, Alex Smith or Flacco all potential top 12 options this year..so thats 11 quality QB's (if you minus Favre) among 8 teams.....nobody is spending a 2nd round pick on a backup QB....so Schaub should fall to the 2nd and if not then a QB just as good will fall to the 2nd if not even the 3rd, or 4th. QB's are less of a luxury no matter how many points per TD pass - unless you begin to include bonuses, and points per completion, the demand is still not as high because the supply is always high.

And as far as drafting is concerned its usually better to do the OPPOSITE of what everyone else is doing in order to strategically outmaneuver other managers....so 4 teams are going to let go of decent RB's and WR's to keep a QB.....make them pay for that by drafting one of those RB's or WR's in the 1st and 2nd and then a QB in the 3rd guys like Kolb, Henne, Flacco should still be there, guaranteed.

There's the drop off. Schaub is a tier above the players that should be there at his position, which give a weekly advantage. Ture that QB's are not worth keeping if passing TD's are 4 points each, but there are many who call the leagues that are all TD's 6 pts QB heavy for a reason. It makes a difference of 4 or more points per week over you opponent at that positioon who is starting BigBen or M.Ryan. That could mean multiple victories over the year.

Lets define the tiers and actually break down what it statistically MEANS to be a tier

Schaub 4800 yards
PManning 4500 yards
Romo 4500 yards
Rodgers 4400 yards
Brady 4400 yards
Brees 4400 yards
Big Ben 4300 yards
Rivers 4300 yards
EManning 4000 yards
Orton 3800 yards
Cutler 3700 yards
Flacco 3600 yards

Brees 34 TD's
PManning 33 TD's
Rodgers 30 TD's
Schaub 29 TD's
Brady 28 TD's
Rivers 28 TD's
EManning 27 TD's
Cutler 27 TD's
Big Ben 26 TD's
Romo 26 TD's

Now look at all of your "1st tier" guys...Schaub is definitely in there but then look at guys like Big Ben, Eli Manning, Cutler, then think of guys like Flacco, and Kolb who are all capable of putting up 4000 yards and 25+ TD's that can be had light years after Schaub. Nobody is arguing whether or not Schaub is a top 5 guy....the debate is the QB's value vs RB and WR value.


Lets say of the top 48 players
4-6 QB's are kept
4 TE's are kept
38-40 RB's/WR's are kept

if he lets VJax/Colston/Moreno go along with Matthews and Dez Bryant being there who is it going to be harder to replace? Schaub..or a young RB/WR2???? And what production will be easier to replace via draft?

Answer to question 1) RB/WR2
Answer to question 2) QB

if 4-6 managers are going to keep their QB's...thats only 6-8 managers that are going to be drafting QB's as a priority and trust me they all WONT go early (I can almost bet Schaub falls to 4 and guys like Eli Manning, Cutler Kolb, Flacco etc...drop into the 2nd/3rd round). EVERYBODY ELSE though meanwhile is going to be drafting WR's, RB's, and TE's. And all the managers that held onto their QB's are going to be in trouble because they are going to take huge hits at WR and RB.

Well if the QB who threw for the most yards last season and the 4th most TD's isn't in your top tier, then I don't really think we are seeing the same statistics to debate or converse on this subject. He's clearly on the same par or better then Romo and Rivers in production unless you have different stats then the ones you posted that appear to prove my point.

[princevincexoxo]

did u read everything I wrote? Or can u not read?

"now look at all of your "1st tier" guys...Schaub is definitely in there"


yes I will call u out when i know u havent read everything I wrote. You missed my entire point because of it. I advise you actually do some READING, that might help you understand peoples points better. I dont type just to read and re-read my posts...even though I DO read and re-read my posts a lot just to make sure i am making sense.

[Steelersfan]

Two of the three teams ahead of me in the draft are keeping QB's (Brady, Rodgers) so there's a very good chance that I can get Schaub back in the draft if I choose. With that being said I doubt I will keep Schaub...

[Orca]

I'll save u the time

Colston Yearly Averages
14 games 71 catches 1020 yards 8 TD's
5 catches per game for 4 years
Career High 98 catches in 16 games (6.1 catches per game)
Career Low 47 catches in 11 games (4.25 catches per game=68 catches in 16 games)


You can tell me all about Vincent Jacksons averages highs and lows

this isn't a discussion of averages . Quite the opposite. It is a discussion of extremes...ceilings and floors. I have something in mind, but let me buy some fruits and vegetables first ok.

ok 98 catches
70 catches
70 catches
and a projected 68 catches

in comparison to
41 catches
59 catches
68 catches

ur fighting a losing battle my friend.....

I'm surprised that you only tell / see half the story here. Fantasy football is about analyzing player's performances and being able to correctly determine whether they are trending upward or trending downward. A perfect uninjured player's career would look like a bell curve. They start slowly while they learn...then continue to improve to a peak and then slowly reduce their output until they retire.

The secret of fantasy is to recognize these trends and catch the players just entering their upswing and selling the players just approaching the downswing. 41, 59, 68 catches is a pretty obvious upward trend. 70, 98, 40 (the season he was hurt that you conveniently ignored), and 70. Add in a microfracture surgery and the emergence of Meachum and you have yourself a compelling argument that that player is trending down. Vjax is just coming into his own.

Through the first 8 weeks of the 2010 season, the top 5 receivers looked like this:

Reggie Wayne............fpts - 155
Andre Johnson...........fpts - 140
Steve Smith (nyg)......fpts - 140
Roddy White...............fpts - 137
Vincent Jackson..........fpts - 133

Pretty impressive, I'd say. It's even more impressive if you consider that neither Andre Johnson nor Steve Smith had their bye weeks at that point of the season.

Now you are going to say, "but 8 weeks doesn't add up to an entire season". You are correct, however, players that are breaking out, often go through streaks of high level success for periods of a season, before they put it all together for a whole year. He's already played half a year at the upper high echelon top 3 wide receiver in the league. Not 2 games, or 4 games, half a season. And once again he improved on all his numbers.

Next years is not going to show up as a breakout statistically because of the suspension, but getting Jackson will give you a player on the upward part of their bell curve, while getting colston will net you a player at the top of the roller coaster, looking downward.

[Steelersfan]

I love the feedback concerning Colston and VJax as that is probably my toughest decision.

ADP and AJ are no brainers, and I'm leaning Moreno over Benson as my third keeper as I want to keep 2 RB's.

One possibility is dealing away some of my depth for a better keeper but we don't have a real active league in the offseason. The team that picks right before me has some issues with their keepers IMO:

Ben

Rice
Brown/Williams

Calvin
Boldin
Crabtree

I had previously offered Benson and Colston for Rice but I never got a response...

BTW, all players traded in the offseason must be kept.

[princevincexoxo]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's

The problem with YOUR analysis is that your bets arent very safe ones. Colston will by default get more opportunity than VJax...so by default his ceiling is going to be consistently higher. Even in Colston worst year where he got injured and only played in 11 games he had 12 less catches on 12 less targets with 2 more TD's in 5 less games...come on man you can make of that trend whatever you wish but the fact is their talent levels are at about the same...but the situation in NO is pas heavier

oh and by the way...Vincent Jackon is a FA after this year i believe so you have to take that into consideration to regardless of whether u think he is trending up or down...

[Orca]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's

The problem with YOUR analysis is that your bets arent very safe ones. Colston will by default get more opportunity than VJax...so by default his ceiling is going to be consistently higher. Even in Colston worst year where he got injured and only played in 11 games he had 12 less catches on 12 less targets with 2 more TD's in 5 less games...come on man you can make of that trend whatever you wish but the fact is their talent levels are at about the same...but the situation in NO is pas heavier

oh and by the way...Vincent Jackon is a FA after this year i believe so you have to take that into consideration to regardless of whether u think he is trending up or down...

I find it very convenient you don't include yardage in any of your analysis...could it be because:

Vjax averages 18.17 ypc
Colston average 14.29 ypc

maybe?

if San Diego doesn't resign Vjax, I'll eat my hat.

(Mark - trade Moreno while he has value...throw in colston and go after another RB .)

[princevincexoxo]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's - 453 yards (16.8ypc)
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's - 623 yards (15.2 ypc)
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's - 1100 yards (18.6 ypc)
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's - 1170 yards (17.2 ypc)

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's - 1040 (14.8 ypc)
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's - 1200 (12.3 ypc)
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's - 760 (16.2 ypc) [projected: 68 catches 1100 yards and 9-10 TD's]
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's- 1075 (15.3 ypc)


we can throw in yards and it wouldnt change the fact that Colstons chances of getting more targets are higher......so unless VJax starts consistently getting more targets than Colston (which by the trends are unlikely to CONTINUE) then i doubt I would keep VJax over Colston.

This isnt a debate of talent...but more of a debate of situation....and Colstons situation is much more likely to be favorable

[Orca]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's - 453 yards (16.8ypc)
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's - 623 yards (15.2 ypc)
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's - 1100 yards (18.6 ypc)
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's - 1170 yards (17.2 ypc)

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's - 1040 (14.8 ypc)
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's - 1200 (12.3 ypc)
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's - 760 (16.2 ypc) [projected: 68 catches 1100 yards and 9-10 TD's]
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's- 1075 (15.3 ypc)


we can throw in yards and it wouldnt change the fact that Colstons chances of getting more targets are higher......so unless VJax starts consistently getting more targets than Colston (which by the trends are unlikely to CONTINUE) then i doubt I would keep VJax over Colston.

This isnt a debate of talent...but more of a debate of situation....and Colstons situation is much more likely to be favorable

Vjax 103, Colston 106....that looks pretty close to me???? I don't care how many times their QB's pass.

[Shawn]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's - 453 yards (16.8ypc)
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's - 623 yards (15.2 ypc)
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's - 1100 yards (18.6 ypc)
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's - 1170 yards (17.2 ypc)

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's - 1040 (14.8 ypc)
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's - 1200 (12.3 ypc)
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's - 760 (16.2 ypc) [projected: 68 catches 1100 yards and 9-10 TD's]
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's- 1075 (15.3 ypc)


we can throw in yards and it wouldnt change the fact that Colstons chances of getting more targets are higher......so unless VJax starts consistently getting more targets than Colston (which by the trends are unlikely to CONTINUE) then i doubt I would keep VJax over Colston.

This isnt a debate of talent...but more of a debate of situation....and Colstons situation is much more likely to be favorable

Vjax 103, Colston 106....that looks pretty close to me???? I don't care how many times their QB's pass.

Why not settle this argument with some kind of a bet for 2010? V-Jax vs. Colston

[Steelersfan]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's - 453 yards (16.8ypc)
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's - 623 yards (15.2 ypc)
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's - 1100 yards (18.6 ypc)
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's - 1170 yards (17.2 ypc)

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's - 1040 (14.8 ypc)
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's - 1200 (12.3 ypc)
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's - 760 (16.2 ypc) [projected: 68 catches 1100 yards and 9-10 TD's]
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's- 1075 (15.3 ypc)


we can throw in yards and it wouldnt change the fact that Colstons chances of getting more targets are higher......so unless VJax starts consistently getting more targets than Colston (which by the trends are unlikely to CONTINUE) then i doubt I would keep VJax over Colston.

This isnt a debate of talent...but more of a debate of situation....and Colstons situation is much more likely to be favorable

Vjax 103, Colston 106....that looks pretty close to me???? I don't care how many times their QB's pass.

Why not settle this argument with some kind of a bet for 2010? V-Jax vs. Colston

There's not enough room in the sig for all of Gino's bets as it is, don't temp him...

[Orca]

Rivers / Jackson
2006: 460 attempts/27 catches (56 targets) and 6 TD's - 453 yards (16.8ypc)
2007: 460 attempts/41 catches (80 targets) and 3 TD's - 623 yards (15.2 ypc)
2008: 478 attempts/59 catches (100 targets) and 7 TD's - 1100 yards (18.6 ypc)
2009: 486 attempts/68 catches (103 targets) and 9 TD's - 1170 yards (17.2 ypc)

Brees/Colston
2006: 554 attempts/70 catches (115 targets) and 8 TD's - 1040 (14.8 ypc)
2007: 652 attempts/98 catches (143 targets) and 11 TD's - 1200 (12.3 ypc)
2008: 635 attempts/47 catches (88 targets) and 5 TD's - 760 (16.2 ypc) [projected: 68 catches 1100 yards and 9-10 TD's]
2009: 514 attempts/70 catches (106 targets) and 9 TD's- 1075 (15.3 ypc)


we can throw in yards and it wouldnt change the fact that Colstons chances of getting more targets are higher......so unless VJax starts consistently getting more targets than Colston (which by the trends are unlikely to CONTINUE) then i doubt I would keep VJax over Colston.

This isnt a debate of talent...but more of a debate of situation....and Colstons situation is much more likely to be favorable

Vjax 103, Colston 106....that looks pretty close to me???? I don't care how many times their QB's pass.

Why not settle this argument with some kind of a bet for 2010? V-Jax vs. Colston

I like the sound of this .

[princevincexoxo]

Well this is where the root of our debate stems from.....

Colston had 98 catches in 2007 for a reason.....Vincent Jackson hasnt broke 70 catches for a REASON....Colston has scored more TD's for A REASON.....and that REASON is one of the variables you neglect

I don't care how many times their QB's pass.

, despite it being a significant factor in determining the odds of the situation......