2020 Rookie Synopsis - The Wide Receivers

[Jigga94]

Per Ryan McDowell:

Jerry Jeudy has finished inside the top-30 FF WRs one time all season.

He’s been the WR40 or worse nine times.

Over the past month, he is the WR102.

Keelan Cole has had a better fantasy season.

Keelan. Cole.

Yuck.

Keelan Cole has been better than a lot of guys this year

[burntfire]

Per Ryan McDowell:

Jerry Jeudy has finished inside the top-30 FF WRs one time all season.

He’s been the WR40 or worse nine times.

Over the past month, he is the WR102.

Keelan Cole has had a better fantasy season.

Keelan. Cole.

Yuck.

Keelan Cole has been better than a lot of guys this year

This is wild. A bit upset I took him over Jefferson but I dunno.. I still have a lot of hope. It took Hopkins several year to turn into Hopkins.. in fact I would say he was downright not great when he started in Houston.

[StripesOfKC]

I wasn't Jeudy's biggest fan coming out and even recommended taking Akers over him everywhere but I'd be surprised if Jeudy doesn't at least hit WR2 numbers for a few years

If people are that down on him I'd be buying (as I did in one league)

[OhCruelestRanter]

I have no Jeudy. I took Swift, Akers, and Lamb ahead of him, and I traded off of him and ended up with Jefferson. So I’m by no means a big fan.

I’ll be looking to buy at a discount this off-season. He’s being used as a deep receiver for arguably the worst deep passer in football. I don’t think there are many meaningful conclusions to draw from this season.

[Sriracha]

This is wild. A bit upset I took him over Jefferson but I dunno.. I still have a lot of hope. It took Hopkins several year to turn into Hopkins.. in fact I would say he was downright not great when he started in Houston.

800 yards on 92 targets, with a 21% dominator playing alongside Andre Johnson was "downright not great".
1210 yards with a 35% dominator in year 2 is him still developing into Hopkins (he's currently at 37% without an elite 2nd option)...

Jeudy can still hit.. but Hopkins' career trajectory is not comparable.

[Cameron Giles]

I have no Jeudy. I took Swift, Akers, and Lamb ahead of him, and I traded off of him and ended up with Jefferson. So I’m by no means a big fan.

I’ll be looking to buy at a discount this off-season. He’s being used as a deep receiver for arguably the worst deep passer in football. I don’t think there are many meaningful conclusions to draw from this season.

This is what I've continued saying. Sure, there are absolutely things about Jeudy's game you can look at and critique, but there's simply not a huge chance for him to put up big numbers with the way Lock has played all year. Jeudy's been among the leaders in air yards all season, yet the production doesn't match and the % of bad throws and uncatchable passes are high. That's an accuracy issue.

[hoos89]

Yeah I'm holding him in the league I have him, and will probably kick the tires in the league I don't. That said I was recently offered him in exchange for Ekeler so if that's an indication of what it will take then I guess I'll be passing.

[Sriracha]

I have no Jeudy. I took Swift, Akers, and Lamb ahead of him, and I traded off of him and ended up with Jefferson. So I’m by no means a big fan.

I’ll be looking to buy at a discount this off-season. He’s being used as a deep receiver for arguably the worst deep passer in football. I don’t think there are many meaningful conclusions to draw from this season.

This is what I've continued saying. Sure, there are absolutely things about Jeudy's game you can look at and critique, but there's simply not a huge chance for him to put up big numbers with the way Lock has played all year. Jeudy's been among the leaders in air yards all season, yet the production doesn't match and the % of bad throws and uncatchable passes are high. That's an accuracy issue.

I get that Lock's been bad.. but he alone can not explain Jeudy's issues.

All of Lock's receivers have a high ADoT because he's been a mad bomber for most of the year: Jeudy 14, Patrick 14, KJ 12, DaeSean 12; but Jeudy's catch percentage is significantly worse than every other WR on the team: Tim Patrick 70%, KJ Hamler 77%, DaeSean Hamilton 72%... Jerry Jeudy 55% -- That's a Jeudy problem.

edit: just realized I was using Jeudy's catch rate, and not catchable target rate.

[burntfire]

This is wild. A bit upset I took him over Jefferson but I dunno.. I still have a lot of hope. It took Hopkins several year to turn into Hopkins.. in fact I would say he was downright not great when he started in Houston.

800 yards on 92 targets, with a 21% dominator playing alongside Andre Johnson was "downright not great".
1210 yards with a 35% dominator in year 2 is him still developing into Hopkins (he's currently at 37% without an elite 2nd option)...

Jeudy can still hit.. but Hopkins' career trajectory is not comparable.

I'm a Texans homer and have watched Hopkins since day 1. He had a very good Matt Schaub throwing him the ball and it still took him time to develop. What I was stating is Hopkins didn't come into the league and immediately dominate the way Jefferson is.. it took him several years.

Sometimes numbers don't tell the whole story.

[Cameron Giles]

I get that Lock's been bad.. but he alone can not explain Jeudy's issues.

All of Lock's receivers have a high ADoT because he's been a mad bomber for most of the year: Jeudy 14, Patrick 14, KJ 12, DaeSean 12; but Jeudy's catch percentage is significantly worse than every other WR on the team: Tim Patrick 70%, KJ Hamler 77%, DaeSean Hamilton 72%... Jerry Jeudy 45% -- That's a Jeudy problem.

I know, hence "there are absolutely things about Jeudy you can look at and critique." Bills game for example. Lock actually hung in under pressure and delivered a well-placed ball to Jeudy, who didn't reel it in and probably sensed a big hit coming.

I don't see how you can compare catch rate here. Hamilton has 26 targets, Hamler has 59, Jeudy has 91, which is more than both combined. Patrick is closer and for whatever reason, him and Lock have a better connection.

I won't turn this into another Jeudy thread, I'll just keep it simple and say that you can't catch the ball if a high% of the passes are deemed uncatchable. If the passes are uncatchable because Jeudy is consistently in the wrong position to make a play, then that's different and you have to look at him. But, there's no evidence that's the case.

[Sriracha]

I get that Lock's been bad.. but he alone can not explain Jeudy's issues.

All of Lock's receivers have a high ADoT because he's been a mad bomber for most of the year: Jeudy 14, Patrick 14, KJ 12, DaeSean 12; but Jeudy's catch percentage is significantly worse than every other WR on the team: Tim Patrick 70%, KJ Hamler 77%, DaeSean Hamilton 72%... Jerry Jeudy 62% -- That's a Jeudy problem.

I know, hence "there are absolutely things about Jeudy you can look at and critique." Bills game for example. Lock actually hung in under pressure and delivered a well-placed ball to Jeudy, who didn't reel it in and probably sensed a big hit coming.

I don't see how you can compare catch rate here. Hamilton has 26 targets, Hamler has 59, Jeudy has 91, which is more than both combined. Patrick is closer and for whatever reason, him and Lock have a better connection.

I won't turn this into another Jeudy thread, I'll just keep it simple and say that you can't catch the ball if a high% of the passes are deemed uncatchable. If the passes are uncatchable because Jeudy is consistently in the wrong position to make a play, then that's different and you have to look at him. But, there's no evidence that's the case.

A 30% difference in catch rate is pretty huge any way you slice it... and there are absolutely plays that showcase Jeudy not being in the right place at the right time.
edit: compared the wrong stat. Carry on.

Just check out the double move people were salivating over vs CAR. Defensive coverage dictated an outside throw, but Jeudy turned inside and had to make a fantastic adjustment to the ball when Lock (correctly) threw it to the boundary. Stuff like this is not uncommon if you're looking at his play without rose colored glasses.

[Cameron Giles]

I get that Lock's been bad.. but he alone can not explain Jeudy's issues.

All of Lock's receivers have a high ADoT because he's been a mad bomber for most of the year: Jeudy 14, Patrick 14, KJ 12, DaeSean 12; but Jeudy's catch percentage is significantly worse than every other WR on the team: Tim Patrick 70%, KJ Hamler 77%, DaeSean Hamilton 72%... Jerry Jeudy 45% -- That's a Jeudy problem.

I know, hence "there are absolutely things about Jeudy you can look at and critique." Bills game for example. Lock actually hung in under pressure and delivered a well-placed ball to Jeudy, who didn't reel it in and probably sensed a big hit coming.

I don't see how you can compare catch rate here. Hamilton has 26 targets, Hamler has 59, Jeudy has 91, which is more than both combined. Patrick is closer and for whatever reason, him and Lock have a better connection.

I won't turn this into another Jeudy thread, I'll just keep it simple and say that you can't catch the ball if a high% of the passes are deemed uncatchable. If the passes are uncatchable because Jeudy is consistently in the wrong position to make a play, then that's different and you have to look at him. But, there's no evidence that's the case.

A 30% difference in catch rate is pretty huge any way you slice it... and there are absolutely plays that showcase Jeudy not being in the right place at the right time.

Just check out the double move people were salivating over vs CAR. Defensive coverage dictated an outside throw, but Jeudy turned inside and had to make a fantastic adjustment to the ball when Lock (correctly) threw it to the boundary. Stuff like this is not uncommon if you're looking at his play without rose colored glasses.

Drew Lock took the snap and turned to his right, lining up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in his sights. The play, which came midway through the second quarter of Broncos’ Week 14 win in Carolina, was designed to get the rookie wide receiver an easy catch and give him a chance to create in space.

But the opportunity never materialized. Lock’s throw bounced several feet in front of Jeudy, and the frustration for both players was evident afterward.

https://theathletic.com/2276503/2020/12 ... oon-after/

If you're attributing a large portion of those uncatchable passes to Jeudy being in the wrong spot, then you have a lot of explaining to do outside of 1 play, because that's easy to do.

I'm a believer in Jeudy's skill and talent, but I'll always call a spade a spade. There's fault on both sides and clearly no chemistry, but Lock's downfield accuracy, which consumes the bulk of Jeudy's usage this season, has been the worst in the league and no WR can do anything with that at high volume.

So, again you can absolutely criticize Jeudy, but tagging him with the bulk of the blame doesn't add up.

[Sriracha]

So, again you can absolutely criticize Jeudy, but tagging him with the bulk of the blame doesn't add up.

I'm more so assigning an equal amount of blame to his poor play as I am to Lock. Obviously Lock isn't playing well with or without Jeudy.

The catch rate speaks for itself. It's one of the worst catch rates in the history of the NFL and is significantly lower than the other WRs on the team.

[Chwf3rd]

This is wild. A bit upset I took him over Jefferson but I dunno.. I still have a lot of hope. It took Hopkins several year to turn into Hopkins.. in fact I would say he was downright not great when he started in Houston.

800 yards on 92 targets, with a 21% dominator playing alongside Andre Johnson was "downright not great".
1210 yards with a 35% dominator in year 2 is him still developing into Hopkins (he's currently at 37% without an elite 2nd option)...

Jeudy can still hit.. but Hopkins' career trajectory is not comparable.

Except for playing with a WR1, their rookie years are almost identical.

Hopkins: 91 targets, 52/802/2
Jeudy (removed Hinton game): 110 targets, 50/806/2