David Johnson - Code Red Panic? - Traded to Houston

[Dookmarriot]

I like Johnson, and can see myself drafting him if the price is right. His measurables are elite, and he's a fantastic pass catcher.

But as I've said elsewhere, he played in the Missouri Valley Conference. With the exception of one game against Iowa, it was a complete creampuff schedule. With his size, strength and speed, he should have been running over and bouncing off tacklers. When the buzz started to build I watched some games - what I saw was a runner who always attempts a cutback when he should let the block develop. He almost never punished a defender, despite clearly having the ability to do so. There's a hesitancy to him in the trenches. He really should have dominated, but he only showed elite production when he caught the ball in space. If he was tentative against soft defences and smaller, inferior athletes, how is he going to react playing so often in the NFC West? Even the 49ers, with their losses, have a hard hitting enough interior. That's the main red flag as far as I can see.

He's gonna have to learn to run inside and learn patience at the NFL level, or else he's going to be the latest combine wonder that didn't make the transfer. It's not the easiest thing. I think he still has a solid floor, especially in PPR, because he's so good as a receiver. It's on him whether he becomes more than the guy who gives Ellington a breather.

[maxhyde]

Love David Johnson and feel like the knocks on him are overblown.

X2
I wouldn't expect him to overcome all his weaker areas this year but his strengths play well into what AZ does and should get to see the field based on those. It will at least buy him time to see if he is able to adapt to become an improved inside runner. Even if he never does he should have a role within most offensive systems he can achieve some level of success for a fantasy team

[MEuRaH]

I've watch a ton of film on him before picking him up in my rookie draft. He's bid bodied and moves very quick. He has great hands and is superb in open space.

I would agree that he needs more work between the tackles, but that doesn't mean he can't do it. The Cardinals offensive line is arguably the 2nd best line in the league after Dallas. I think he's going to do very well simply because the blocking will be top notch.

[ninotoreS]

Personally, I thought he looked fantastic in the Senior Bowl.

[maxhyde]

Personally, I thought he looked fantastic in the Senior Bowl.

Agreed. Personally thought he was the most impressive RB in the game

[Dynasty DeLorean]

In reference to the OP, most David Johnson hate likely comes from one scout or football writers absolutely wrong analysis from many months ago and then everyone else just goes off what that one guy said. The more I listen to podcasts and read fantasy football sites, the more and more evident it is to me that the amount of research and tape watching these guys do themselves is NOT how much they want you to think it is. A big part of their analysis comes from what OTHER people say about a prospect. I have watched more tape on more people than the people who do very popular fantasy football podcasts, and I know that because very often you will hear them say "well i haven't seen any tape on this guy" or "hmmm maybe i'll have to watch more tape on him". The correct response SHOULD be "well I've watched all his tape and it's just not what I saw." I heard someone say that DeVante Parker is a straight-line guy with no wiggle after the catch, and that is hilariously wrong. These people aren't as smart as you think they are, and they don't watch as much tape as you think they do. Critiques on a player often start from one source (sometimes credible and accurate, other times not) and then become a long game of telephone to the rest of the fantasy football community.

For example, a long time ago I heard this ridiculous blurb about how David Johnson turns his back to contact, which is completely false because I saw with my own eyes that he doesn't. Then you see the same blurb pop up in numerous other sites and podcasts. They are not coming up with the same thing on their own because it simply didn't happen. They are saying it because someone else said it.

As for the big reason why David Johnson is overlooked, is because his offensive line was AWFUL. People keep bringing up his level of competition but that doesn't mean squat if your line can't block. It just doesn't. When Gurley and Gordon's line didn't block well, they looked bad too. I would say that David Johnson looked better than those players when their lines didn't block well. Gordon's blockers would hold their blocks for literally 5+ seconds while he tip toed past them. Gurley's line would give him a 20 foot hole to run through straight up the middle of the field sometimes for a long touchdown. David Johnson got none of that. I mentioned in another post that when he gets 5 yards upfield it looks like a scene from "The Birds", just being swarmed from every angle.

The bottom line to david johnson is that, NO he is not the most powerful runner, he is not Todd Gurley, but then again nobody is saying he is! But I think he does have decent power paired with excellent agility for his size. He also seems to have a crazy work ethic and seems very durable. Put him behind that o-line in Arizona and he's going to tear it up. He's going to look like a completely different player from his college tape i'm telling you.


/rant

[Dookmarriot]

Do NOT diss DJ or Latavius around Darkness!



I hear you about his line being awful...but there's a flipside. The defenses he was playing against weren't anything close to elite either. Again, the only D with any national import he played was Iowa (where, admittedly, he played very well, although again not in the trenches). I certainly think Johnson has all the tools to dominate, but when you're that fantastic an athlete, why wasn't he able to transcend his awful line while playing against powder puff defences?

Again, I like him. But the lack of success against inferior competition is something that makes me pump the brakes.

[iCantStop]

Haha.. I was waiting for Darkness on this one! (Fwiw, I used his "Metrics of Successful RBs in Recent Memory thread - page 4, I think? - to help me adjust with my pushes, where players were equal in my eyes)

To add on to the whole telephone bit, I would like to say that Georgia did not have one OL drafted this year, and in Peter King's article (link below), the Rams' GM, Les Snead, said "One of the things we looked at was the team around him. I’m not sure about this, but it’s possible there might not be an offensive lineman who blocked for him at Georgia who will start at the next level, or play at the next level. When we looked at him on tape, we saw him playing against a lot of seven- and eight-man fronts, which is what he’s going to be seeing when he lines up for us. We saw him playing against not a lot of air, which is what he’s going to be seeing when he plays for us. So that translates pretty well.”

While I'm not a pro scout, and I haven't watched much of Nick Chubb's tape, I don't like the argument "Gurley (& Chubb) had a great OL to run behind." Because he didn't. He and Chubb are both very good RBs. If Chubb continues to progress, I would expect him to be another first rounder. But that's a couple years out....

As for David Johnson, his line at UNI did not look good to me. In his game against Iowa, he was hit (well) behind the LOS on at least half of his 13 carries, for which he had 34 yards. He did hang a 5-203-1 receiving line in the same game. From this game tape, I don't honestly think he could have been successful running the ball.

way late edit: I forgot to post the link to King's article: http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/26/todd-gurl ... ouis-rams/

[NYJ]

I think everyone was anticipating the Cardinals to draft a RB to take snaps on 1st and 2nd down and let Ellington become the pass catching/gadget back. David Johnson's biggest strength is no doubt his pass catching and ability to run routes at almost WR level (in college) which sort of clashes with Ellington at the moment. But they did take him in the 3rd round so ahve to imagine they will have a plan for him or get him some touches.

Overall, the consesus is that the fit isn't great and you can't pencil him in for the starter job and a load of carries like you would even if they drafted someone like David Cobb.

[TommyL31]

Do NOT diss DJ or Latavius around Darkness!



I hear you about his line being awful...but there's a flipside. The defenses he was playing against weren't anything close to elite either. Again, the only D with any national import he played was Iowa (where, admittedly, he played very well, although again not in the trenches). I certainly think Johnson has all the tools to dominate, but when you're that fantastic an athlete, why wasn't he able to transcend his awful line while playing against powder puff defences?

Again, I like him. But the lack of success against inferior competition is something that makes me pump the brakes.

Didn't have college success? He had the 4th highest college dominator ranking of RBs coming out this year behind only Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, and Zach Zenner (ie ahead of Gurley, Abdullah, Yeldon, Duke Johnson, etc.)

He had over 2100 yards and 19 TDs last year and 1600/14 the year before that. Was he supposed to go 3000/30?

[HawkeyeState]

Do NOT diss DJ or Latavius around Darkness!



I hear you about his line being awful...but there's a flipside. The defenses he was playing against weren't anything close to elite either. Again, the only D with any national import he played was Iowa (where, admittedly, he played very well, although again not in the trenches). I certainly think Johnson has all the tools to dominate, but when you're that fantastic an athlete, why wasn't he able to transcend his awful line while playing against powder puff defences?

Again, I like him. But the lack of success against inferior competition is something that makes me pump the brakes.

Didn't have college success? He had the 4th highest college dominator ranking of RBs coming out this year behind only Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, and Zach Zenner (ie ahead of Gurley, Abdullah, Yeldon, Duke Johnson, etc.)

He had over 2100 yards and 19 TDs last year and 1600/14 the year before that. Was he supposed to go 3000/30?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

In reference to Gurley's o-line, it may not have been amazing or anything but you can't deny they opened up HUGE holes a few times where he ran for a 50+ yard td or whatever it was, thoroughly padding Gurley's stats.

David Johnson does need to make improvements, nobody is saying he doesn't. I referenced this before but he looked like he was shell-shocked running behind his sieve-like o-line in college. He was constantly hit behind the line of scrimmage, swarmed by defenders at all levels of the defense, and never really knew if his lineman would hold a block as he was approaching them. I agree at times he did not look too confident (resulting in less power than you would think when combined with constantly behind harassed in the backfield and around the line of scrimmage) but imo a lot of that was because he never knew what the heck his linemen were going to do. I think all of this is going to go away once he's behind a line he can trust. Go watch Melvin Gordon's tape as his linemen hold their blocks as he confidently strolls past them at all levels of the defense to see the stark contrast.

[theone]

What I saw on tape. Terrific balance for a larger back. Really good vision. Patient, likes to use the hesitation skip cutback a lot which will not work as well at the NFL level. Not very quick in the running lane. Not explosive through the running lanes. Very good breakaway speed when in the open field. Great hands and routes as pass receiver. Good open field moves.

His role is undefined right now for AZ. His good traits mirror Ellington's only Johnson is bigger but with less quickness. He won't be the third down back. My best guess is he will spell Ellington for a couple of series during the game. And contrary to what some of the posters think, the AZ OL was horrific last year. The additions hopefully help but to suggest this is one of the better OLs is just not realistic. Arians may change the running scheme somewhat to avoid just pounding the ball up through the tackles.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

He won't be the third down back. My best guess is he will spell Ellington for a couple of series during the game.

Agree completely, i think they're going to rotate series and there won't necessarily be a "3rd down back". I think there was a blurb (who knows how accurate) about more no-huddle offense which means they'll keep the same rb on the field that's out there.

[Westy22]

I think the other thing to consider here is how often Ellington is nicked up. David Johnson imo is a good prospect because we can almost guarantee he will get his shot to shine and take the job away from Ellington. If he looks bad when that happens so be it.

FWIW I am a fan and think the negative press is overblown. All reports out of camp are very positive.