Chris Ivory in 2013: What does the future hold?

[Chris_R]

It's just tough for me to get excited for any RB there not named Sproles, at least until they leave. Talent wise, I like all of Pierre, Ingram, and Ivory. If I tried to rank them talent wise not taking anything else into consideration it'd probably be Pierre, Ivory, Ingram, but I do have them all close. But in terms of relying on a guy in terms of fantasy, sign me up for whoever has the easiest chance of not returning. It could be a very ideal situation for a RB to be in but with the usage and roles up in the air it's a mess.

[ninotoreS]

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

Ivory is a restricted FA this coming offseason. Any team can sign him to an offer sheet. The Saints will have a period of time to match it. As I understand it, if they don't, they get a pick in return. Since he was originally undrafted, the pick would be low- like a 7th rounder.

Actually, no. As I've already posted here, since Ivory was originally undrafted, if they offer Ivory the lowest tender offer sheet (which would still double his current salary), they will get no picks for him should another team beat their offer.

If the Saints want a guaranteed pick for Ivory should a team beat their offer, they have no choice but to jump up to putting a second-round tender on him, which would quadruple Ivory's current salary (and would make him better paid than Ingram and paid almost the same as Thomas).

So as I said in a previous post, the question becomes whether or not the Saints really want to give Ivory a big raise just to be 4th on their depth chart.

Is Ivory worth the money, in and of itself? Absolutely. Is he worth that money just to keep him inactive every week because they still have three other RBs ahead of him?

I cant speak for Mickey Loomis, but that seems like a giant waste of money to me, and especially so for a team that's already right up against the cap and soon to be staring an enormous Jimmy Graham contract in the face.

I'm sure the Saints truly love Ivory. But it just doesn't make any fiscal sense at all for them to keep him unless they're gonna get rid of either Thomas or Ingram.

[ninotoreS]

So everyone wondering why NO didn't just trade him for a 6th is seeing why. He's far too valuable, and I doubt anyone was offering a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He would be so appealing on teams who could use him consistently, for now he's a stash that you have to be patient with. NO is in no rush to trade any of those backs. Ingram still isn't going anywhere, Sproles isn't, and neither is Pierre. So he's got to leave to see his value inflate otherwise he's a talented player that you won't be able to use in fantasy leagues.

You're assuming any team even offered a 6th or 7th round pick for Ivory at the deadline.

I suspect no team did. And I suspect if they had, the Saints would have traded Ivory (I don't care what Vitt said to the press, Loomis calls those shots, not him).

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

Obviously nobody has any concrete evidence of whether any offers were sent, but I highly doubt nobody sent over an offer of a late round pick. Ivory has been in trade rumors for what seems like forever now, with all the teams having RB depth issues you mean to tell me nobody offered at least a 7th round pick for a guy who has been in every trade rumor? Doubt that. NO just wasn't about to help a team like Detroit(who they are battling for a wild card spot) with a huge on the field advantage for a 7th rounder. NFL teams know about a guy like Ivory by now, and if he was available for a 6th/7th rounder he would have been traded a long time ago.


He's also not a UFA, so it's not like they can just freely sign him. NO knows what they have in him, and all those teams who need RB help I'm sure called to gauge interest or availability. You mean to tell me a team like the Cardinals had a chance to get Ivory for a 7th rounder and decided to pass? Again, that's just not likely to me. I can't remember the last time a guy with talent enough to be a starter was available for a 7th round pick and nobody budged. NO saying they weren't trading Ivory to me just meant they weren't giving him away for free to help a team make a playoff push, especially a NFC team.

Okay, guys, go back up to my first post in this thread, and read it, please.

What I'm telling you is that teams interested in Ivory are probably expecting the Saints to offer him the lowest tender value in 2013, since a second-round tender offer (i.e. the next lowest tender value) just wouldn't make any sense for them to extend to a guy they plan to keep buried on the depth chart; it would end up paying Ivory more than Ingram and nearly the same as Thomas.

And the thing about the lowest tender value is that it carries a compensatory pick payment of whatever round the player was drafted in. But Ivory wasn't drafted. So there would be no compensatory pick in his case.

So basically, the Saints are in a weak position to try and resign Ivory in 2013, and other teams surely know it. Interested suitors simply have to wait a few more months to get the best possible price for him. Making a bid for him at the deadline just would've been wastefully throwing away a pick, and even 7th round picks are valuable to NFL teams.

[holy_stromboli]

I can't imagine the Saints tendering him a 2nr round and bumping his salary that high. I could see them tendering a 4th rd pick perhaps and hope that some team ponies up on that. Maybe I'm crazy in thinking that, but the Saints potentially get a mid round pick back and don't lose Ivory outright, because no NFL team will pay a 2nd rd. And if no one matches their 4th rd tender, then they didn't have to ante up as much to keep Ivory.

This is going to sound weird, but I suddenly see PT as the odd man out. The Saints O has looked vastly improved with Ingram and Ivory running full steam. They still have Sproles and Cadet to play hybrid roles. PT doesn't have an absurd contract as far as I recall, so he is plenty tradeable. He does have the bigger contract than Ivory, so Saints can trade PT, shed some salary, get a pick, and still have a lot of weapons in the backfield. So commandeth the armchair GM!

To answer the thread, Ivory stays stuck in RBBC in NO in 2013. My prediction.

[ninotoreS]

From what I understand, there are three baseline tender amounts that can be offered to RFAs in the NFL.

* $2.7 million minimum one-year salary, and a 1st-round pick compensation.

* $1.9 million minimum one-year salary, and a 2nd-round pick compensation

* $1.3 million minimum one-year salary, and a compensatory pick determined by what round the RFA was drafted in. If the RFA was undrafted, there is no compensatory pick payment.

Note: Ivory is being paid 500 grand in 2012. Ingram will be paid 1 million in 2013. Thomas will be paid 2.1 million in 2013. Sproles will get 2.9 million in 2013.


If the Saints offer Ivory the 1.3 million tender amount, it will be very inviting for another team to out-bid them, because doing so will carry no compensatory pick payment.

if the Saints offer Ivory the $1.9 million tender amount, I expect he would remain a Saint, because I have trouble seeing another team willing to give up a 2nd-round pick for him. But the thing is, that would be grossly overpaying a 4th-stringer. It just wouldn't make sense. Throw in that the Saints also don't have cap room to spare, and it would be simply absurd.

[holy_stromboli]

Allow me to add one more purely ridiculous scenario:

The Panthers cut DWill, and trade for Ivory; thus further enraging JStew owners worldwide.

[WZA]

Allow me to add one more purely ridiculous scenario:

The Panthers cut DWill, and trade for Ivory; thus further enraging JStew owners worldwide.

LMAO...awesome.

Although, I like Ivory and I wouldn't want to see the poor guy fall into that scenario.

[voiceofunreason]

You're assuming any team even offered a 6th or 7th round pick for Ivory at the deadline.

I suspect no team did. And I suspect if they had, the Saints would have traded Ivory (I don't care what Vitt said to the press, Loomis calls those shots, not him).

Surely front-offices around the league realize they can probably make a play for Ivory this off-season without giving up any picks at all for him.

Obviously nobody has any concrete evidence of whether any offers were sent, but I highly doubt nobody sent over an offer of a late round pick. Ivory has been in trade rumors for what seems like forever now, with all the teams having RB depth issues you mean to tell me nobody offered at least a 7th round pick for a guy who has been in every trade rumor? Doubt that. NO just wasn't about to help a team like Detroit(who they are battling for a wild card spot) with a huge on the field advantage for a 7th rounder. NFL teams know about a guy like Ivory by now, and if he was available for a 6th/7th rounder he would have been traded a long time ago.


He's also not a UFA, so it's not like they can just freely sign him. NO knows what they have in him, and all those teams who need RB help I'm sure called to gauge interest or availability. You mean to tell me a team like the Cardinals had a chance to get Ivory for a 7th rounder and decided to pass? Again, that's just not likely to me. I can't remember the last time a guy with talent enough to be a starter was available for a 7th round pick and nobody budged. NO saying they weren't trading Ivory to me just meant they weren't giving him away for free to help a team make a playoff push, especially a NFC team.

Okay, guys, go back up to my first post in this thread, and read it, please.

What I'm telling you is that teams interested in Ivory are probably expecting the Saints to offer him the lowest tender value in 2013, since a second-round tender offer (i.e. the next lowest tender value) just wouldn't make any sense for them to extend to a guy they plan to keep buried on the depth chart; it would end up paying Ivory more than Ingram and nearly the same as Thomas.

And the thing about the lowest tender value is that it carries a compensatory pick payment of whatever round the player was drafted in. But Ivory wasn't drafted. So there would be no compensatory pick in his case.

So basically, the Saints are in a weak position to try and resign Ivory in 2013, and other teams surely know it. Interested suitors simply have to wait a few more months to get the best possible price for him. Making a bid for him at the deadline just would've been wastefully throwing away a pick, and even 7th round picks are valuable to NFL teams.

People aren't paying attention to what you say because a 7th round pick is nothing. If a team thinks a player can help them this year they aren't going to think for a second about waiting a year. They'd just give up the 7th rounder and move on.

[whatadai]

I can't imagine the Saints tendering him a 2nr round and bumping his salary that high. I could see them tendering a 4th rd pick perhaps and hope that some team ponies up on that.

LOLWUT?

[Chris_R]

So basically, the Saints are in a weak position to try and resign Ivory in 2013, and other teams surely know it. Interested suitors simply have to wait a few more months to get the best possible price for him. Making a bid for him at the deadline just would've been wastefully throwing away a pick, and even 7th round picks are valuable to NFL teams.

So I guess the Patriots wasted a 4th round pick on Aqib Talib right? Because he's scheduled to be a UFA so why waste the pick when they could have just gotten him in a few more months at the best possible price? Tampa Bay was in a weak position to re-sign him with all the money spent on the offensive line. Have you never noticed players getting traded in the last year of their contracts before? I'm not sure why your acting like this is so rare, it happens all the time. It's not "wasting" a pick because your getting help this year to make the playoffs and lets you re-sign him without a bidding war on the open market. It's really not anything similiar to wasting a pick, and do you honestly believe as talented as Ivory is nobody would be interested for a 7th?



As for Ivory, he was dropped in my league, so I'm going to hold onto him until next year, and if he goes back to NO he won't have any use to me. But he seems like the type of guy who'd get drafted next year in our rookie/FA draft after changing teams so all I can do is hope for a change of scenery.

[theimposter]

The Pats are a playoff team, though. I think the team that would have the bigger need for Ivory would be AZ, and they likely aren't. Detroit, GB, etc. all seem to have other options they feel comfortable with. Also, CB is a premium position, RB isn't. And the Talib trade might be a bad move for the Pats in the end, they traded a decent pick for a knucklehead because they are desperate. The reason it made sense are for the two reasons I gave, they're all but a guaranteed playoff team and CBs come at a premium.

I get the jist of what you're saying, but I think the Talib trade is hard to compare for a move for Ivory. I think Ivory is worth a 6th or 7th, but it'd make plenty of sense as to why any of the teams speculated about wouldn't bother.

[micmechanic]

I would love to see him to to the Falcons. He'd be gold there. The Rurner is fading for Turner.

[smudga55]

I would love to see him to to the Falcons. He'd be gold there. The Rurner is fading for Turner.

hasn't considered them tbh but now you say it they seem like a perfect partnership

[BRonIsBoss]

I would love to see him to to the Falcons. He'd be gold there. The Rurner is fading for Turner.

hasn't considered them tbh but now you say it they seem like a perfect partnership

Division rival? The plot thickens...