How does Trich's situation compare to the last 3 rookie rbs

[mullmania]

It seems that everyone is in love with Trich right now and reports are that talent wise he's probably the best back to enter the league since AP or CJ. If we are to put his talent on par with those backs I think it's fair to look at the team situations those backs entered into, which allowed them to succeed. It's relatively rare that rookie running backs succeed right out of the gate and, correct me if I'm wrong, but the best examples of recent rookie success are: AP, CJ and Forte.

That is the purpose of this thread. To kind of have a look back in history. Surely the talent is there but is the situation comparable, and equally important, does that matter?

My fantasy short term memory barely goes back to this time period so I did some very brief fact finding, mostly from Wiki, that gave me the team records and qb situations of those teams. I've posted those below.

Forte Rookie Year 2008:

Bears 2007, 'the Bears entered the 2007 season as the National Football Conference Champions and had hopes of returning to the Super Bowl,[2] but instead finished the season with a disappointing 7-9 record.'

Qbs: Griese, Grossman, Orton

Chris Johnson Rookie Year 2008:

Titans 2007, 10-6 Record, Lost Wildcard Playoff game

Qb: Vince Young

AP Rookie Year 2007:

Vikings 2006, 6-10 'The Vikings surrendered only 985 rushing yards in 2006, making Minnesota one of only two franchises in NFL history to allow fewer than 1,000 rushing yards in a 16-game season. (The other was the Super Bowl champion 2000 Baltimore Ravens.)'

QB: Brad Johnson


** If you are a fan of the teams in question or have anything to add on the 2006>2007 Vikings or 2007>2008 Bears or Titans please do.


In short it seems that the Bears had recently went to the Superbowl, the Titans were a playoff team that lost and Minnesota seemingly had one of the best rushing defenses in NFL history. All 3 had at least the QB from the prior year returning.

** My take away from this, is that Trichs situation is probably worse than all 3. He's going to be playing with a rookie qb, young skill positions all around, on a team coming off a 4-12 season, with an awful rushing defense.

Cleveland ranked 29th in total offense, 30th in PPG with 13.6, and while they surprisingly ranked 10th in total defense, they were 30th against the rush. If any division is known for defense in today's NFL its the NFC North with Pitt, Baltimore and Cinci.


I'm not down on Trich. I quite honestly won't have an opinion until I see him in preseason but with the way he keeps jumping up draft boards, with people seemingly expecting an AP/CJ/Forte like rookie year, I wanted to dig deeper into the team situations that allowed those rookies success, to see if Trent's was at all similar, and the conclusion I come to is that it isn't. That doesn't mean talent won't win out. I'm just giving another angle...and looking for opinions. Please chime in.

[tstafford]

Great post!

A couple of thoughts:
Moreno: I think (as much as it pains me to do so) Moreno sort of needs to be on this list too. He had just about 1200 total yards and 9 TDs as a rookie. Not bad. That was a pretty rough year for DEN - it was the season they dealt away Cutler and went with Orton for the whole year.

Titans: Remember that in CJ2Ks rookie year, Len Dale White was there as well. He actually had a fantasy relevant season with about 800 yards and a boatload of TDs. They split carries fairly evenly and the Titans ground the ball constantly. It was a defense oriented team and we didn't have a single receiver over 650 yards. For those who like the current NFL, the 2008 Titans were rather boring.

Your T.Rich Point : I think it has some merit, but one could also argue the opposite too. The following guys all were drafted highly in the NFL and rookie drafts and went to good situations. But that didn't equal immediate success: Ingram, Mathews, Donald Brown.

I agree with the assertion that T.Rich is probably being anointed a little early. He's been drafted ahead of Ray Ray Rice at times and I think that's ridiculous. But what people see is an opportunity for a guy to get 300+ carries with little competition on the depth chart. Sheer volume should make him a low end RB1 immediately.

As well, RB stinks right now in the NFL. It's really hard to get a bell cow for fantasy. This is why CJ2K still carries so much value even though he makes owner's nervous. Richardson (like Mathews, Moreno and Forte) entered the league to a terrific situation to get the full load. Combine that with his apparent talent and he's a pretty attractive asset.

[Scorp]

The offensive line isn't that bad in Cleveland. They're about in the middle of the pack. Peyton Hillis was the #2 total yardage rusher in 2010, but suffered from the Madden Curse (it is real) in 2011. It's rare that you see a runningback drafted in the first 5 picks of the NFL, and that alone tells you to be on the lookout. I read a statistic about a year ago here at DLF regarding the bust rate of runningbacks drafted in the first round compared to the second round, and statistically, Richardson should do pretty good. Just seeing the bulldozer's highlights while comparing him to Ingram last year seemed to flash Frank Gore to me. I'm probably wrong, but this guy reminds me of hall of fame potential, possibly as good as Emmit Smith.