Rookie Mock ADP

[TryingToWin]

Does anyone have the time to go through all of the rookie mocks and do an ADP?! I think its a great idea and we would all benefit, even if just a little, from the results.

I am no hero for proposing the idea and not doing it myself, so I apologize that I don't have the time to do this. Research, finals, work, family, etc has me bogged down for now.

[nicaragua]

It's not a bad idea. hmmmm....I might be willing to throw something together if someone else would be willing to link-to/list all of the mocks here. then just dump into a spreadsheet and avg.

only thing is that if we include both regular and IDP the numbers will skew a bit, especially in the later rounds no? I'm no statistician or anything...

[TryingToWin]

No IDP

[xGUACAMOLEx]

Got bored at work and actually did this. Took 4 non IDP rookie mock drafts from this forum, added all players drafted + their draft position. Started calculating ADP, got bored of it after the first round. Here's the ADP from the first 4 rounds:

Trent Richardson, RB (1.01)
Andrew Luck, QB (1.02)
Robert Griffin III (1.03)
Justin Blackmon (1.04)
Doug Martin (1.05)
Lamar Miller (1.06)
David Wilson (1.07)
Michael Floyd (1.08)
Kendall Wright (1.09)
Chris Polk (1.10)
Stephen Hill (1.11)
Mohamed Sanu (1.12)

Past the first round it got kind of hard, there were a lot of players that were only drafted in one of the mocks, but they were high, like at 2.05 or something. Maybe I'll finish it up later, maybe not. It'll all be moot in about 2 hours and 15 minutes once the actual draft starts.

[TryingToWin]

Got bored at work and actually did this. Took 4 non IDP rookie mock drafts from this forum, added all players drafted + their draft position. Started calculating ADP, got bored of it after the first round. Here's the ADP from the first 4 rounds:

Trent Richardson, RB (1.01)
Andrew Luck, QB (1.02)
Robert Griffin III (1.03)
Justin Blackmon (1.04)
Doug Martin (1.05)
Lamar Miller (1.06)
David Wilson (1.07)
Michael Floyd (1.08)
Kendall Wright (1.09)
Chris Polk (1.10)
Stephen Hill (1.11)
Mohamed Sanu (1.12)

Past the first round it got kind of hard, there were a lot of players that were only drafted in one of the mocks, but they were high, like at 2.05 or something. Maybe I'll finish it up later, maybe not. It'll all be moot in about 2 hours and 15 minutes once the actual draft starts.

Good work! Thanks a lot!

[Camperhead]

I've been keeping a spreadsheet of the monthly drafts in this forum (two in March) and just haven't been counting the IDPs. Seems that my data has only two drafts that include IDPs, and that only one defensive player was chosen in each of those. I've also separated the data to get pre- and post-NFL draft ADPs. So far, the only post-NFL draft one I have incorporated is the one featured on the DLF home page here: http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2012/t ... d-analysis

I've also been sure to note in how many drafts a player appears, so as to help identify outliers. Through six drafts logged, the top 20 (with ADP and number of drafts) are:

RB-Trent Richardson 1.17 (6)
QB-Andrew Luck 2.33 (6)
WR-Justin Blackmon 3.83 (6)
QB-Robert Griffin 4.50 (6)
RB-Doug Martin 5.17 (6)
RB-David Wilson 6.50 (6)
WR-Michael Floyd 7.00 (6)
RB-Lamar Miller 7.33 (6)
WR-Kendall Wright 9.83 (6)
WR Stephen Hill 11.50 (4)
WR-Alshon Jeffery 12.67 (6)
RB-Chris Polk 12.83 (6)
WR-Mohammad Sanu 13.33 (6)
WR-Jeff Fuller 15.00 (2)
WR Reuben Randle 15.40 (5)
RB-LaMichael James 15.67 (6)
QB-Ryan Tannehill 17.67 (6)
TE-Coby Fleener 18.00 (5)
QB-Kirk Cousins 18.00 (1)
RB-Isaiah Pead 18.50 (6)

Obviously, Fuller and Cousins are anomalies here. It'll be interesting to track the pre- and post-draft trends as well. As you can imagine, Miller and Polk are trending down (Miller was never later than 7th pre-draft and was 16th in the one post-draft dataset; Polk was never later than 13th, and went 28th in the most recent one). Conversely, Pead was never taken earlier than 15th pre-draft and went 8th in the one post-draft list. Ronnie Hillman had a pre-draft ADP of 30.67 and went 15th in the latest draft.

Of course, there are lots of factors that may render this relatively invalid, but I still think I can learn a thing or two from the exercise.