Antonio Brown vs Greg Little: Dynasty Showdown

[MARKinMI]

I'm going to take Brown here and i'm not really going to agonize over it. I thought Brown was under drafted coming out of Central Michigan where i watched alot of his games. He's just so fluid and looks like the real deal. I actually think he's a year away from being the target monster in Pittsburgh. I love Wallace too but Brown is a more complete WR and I love his long term potential in that offense. Ben already showed last season that he loves looking for him. I dont disagree that little's physically gifted but he's just too raw for anybody to say he's a lock for success. If he ever gets to the point where he doesnt look like he's fighting himself when he brings the ball in or runs a route I'll bump him up more but until then I'm going to take more naturally gifted WR not the more gifted athlete. Brown over Little......

[NJKV]

My evaluation is based on actual production. If your league scores potential take Little right after Ingram.

Isn't part of Dynasty FF to try to get the players with most potential? I think next year Brown outscores Little. Though, in the long run I will take Little. He didn't play his senior of college and with the lockout basically jumped right into the NFL with being away from football for a year and half. Little himself is an extremely raw talent and I think with a year learning the offense will take a giant leap. Now he isn't perfect. He needs to work out the drops. I think they are close but I do take Little in the long run.

[The GM]

It will come as no surprise that my selection is Greg Little. To put it in perspective, my top selection in the "overrated" thread was NOT Roy Helu but rather Antonio Brown. The problem is a simple one...owners will look at the 2011 stats and automatically say that Brown is better. That is the strategy that people are welcome to try to employ in redraft - though it certainly has its failures as well. So I will instead point to several other factors.

First, Antonio Brown was not a rookie but a 2nd year player. Do we really need to do a comparison here? Brown's rookie year was 16-167-0. What had he proven after his rookie season? If Little could be described as "nothing", then we can fairly describe Brown as "less than nothing" and summarily dismiss him as a total bum and bust in the NFL and no one we should ever hear from again.

This is only a valid comparison if both players possess equal playing time. Brown cannot help it that his franchise was not desperate enough to HAVE to start him in his first season. Please see your Fifth comment below where you state: "Little has no one in that entire offense with half his talent. He is the only viable NFL starter at WR right now that the Browns even have..." You think that says a lot about Little, I think that says a lot about the entire organization.

Second, let's consider how much time these guys have had to work with their teams coming into 2011. One of these guys has been with the club for well over a year. The other had 3-4 weeks.

I agree with this. The lack of an off season hurt last years rookie class.

Third, lets look at the ACTUAL 2011 numbers. Little caught 61 passes on 120 targets (51%). Brown caught 69 passes on 124 targets (56%). There was a thread talking about Denarius Moore a few days ago dismissing his 42% catch rate as close enough to Little's that it was negligible. So it only stands to reason that if a 9% difference is nothing then a 5% difference is nothing. So let's then look to the next number...TDs. Both of them scored 2 TDs on the year. The only difference here in the numbers is yardage.

I feel everybody has to take the 9% or 5% reception difference into account on their own. I personally wonder how many receptions Little made in garbage time?

Fourth, let's consider their QBs. Brown has Roethlisberger who had over 4000 passing yards and 21 TDs. Little had McCoy with 2733 passing yards and 14 TDs. Both WRs accounted for approximately the same percentage of the team's passing offense. Little accounted for a higher percentage of TDs. McCoy has a number of problems, most notably his inability to get the ball downfield. That hinders his yardage production as well as that of his WRs. Ben isn't going to be losing his job in Pittsburgh unless he retires. McCoy will be replaced. He is a serviceable backup but not an NFL starter.

See your next point where you state there is no one on the entire offense with half of Little's talent. So a person would have to believe that a QB change would be good for Little AND that the Brown's have learned how to evaluate offensive talent this offseason. I do not believe either.

Also not only is Roethlisberger a better QB than McCoy, he seems to trust Brown a LOT. I like that combo.

Fifth, the role on the team in 2011 was very different. Brown has a great WR running on the opposite side who draws double teams, allowing him to work in single coverage underneath. Little has no one in that entire offense with half his talent. He is the only viable NFL starter at WR right now that the Browns even have, drawing a lot more attention by opposing defenses. I see a lot of people dismissing the idea that Brown will see his role change or diminish. Prior to the 2011 season, Sanders was the favorite for that role but lost out on the job due to injury. Color me very skeptical that Brown approaches the same number of targets in 2012 that he enjoyed this season.

Antonio Brown was voted MVP by the players on his team. Players who practice with him. Players who play with him. Players who know how to win.

Finally, Little is a big, strong, physical WR who stands 6'2" and 220 lb. Brown is a smaller player at 5'10" and 186 lb. who does not possess the same physical dominance. Few WRs enjoy an extended period of success at Brown's size. On physique alone, Little possesses more upside with size and speed (both ran similar 40 times).

[reality]Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers 5'9", 185 pounds, 32 years old.[/reality]

[MR ROURKE]

I'll take Little

[skip]

[reality]Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers 5'9", 185 pounds, 32 years old.[/reality]

Smith is a physical specimen at his size who has a LONG history of facing double & triple teams. There is zero comparison here to Brown apart from height and weight. Back to a comment earlier about Massaquoi and Robiskie...I would be hard pressed to find one person who believed either was ever viewed as a #1 WR or too many who even saw them as #2s. Both compare as well to Little as Brown does to Smith.

We can run around in circles here supporting "our guy" and like you said...we'll see.

[TheMalocchio]

It will come as no surprise that my selection is Greg Little. To put it in perspective, my top selection in the "overrated" thread was NOT Roy Helu but rather Antonio Brown. The problem is a simple one...owners will look at the 2011 stats and automatically say that Brown is better. That is the strategy that people are welcome to try to employ in redraft - though it certainly has its failures as well. So I will instead point to several other factors.

First, Antonio Brown was not a rookie but a 2nd year player. Do we really need to do a comparison here? Brown's rookie year was 16-167-0. What had he proven after his rookie season? If Little could be described as "nothing", then we can fairly describe Brown as "less than nothing" and summarily dismiss him as a total bum and bust in the NFL and no one we should ever hear from again.

Second, let's consider how much time these guys have had to work with their teams coming into 2011. One of these guys has been with the club for well over a year. The other had 3-4 weeks.

Third, lets look at the ACTUAL 2011 numbers. Little caught 61 passes on 120 targets (51%). Brown caught 69 passes on 124 targets (56%). There was a thread talking about Denarius Moore a few days ago dismissing his 42% catch rate as close enough to Little's that it was negligible. So it only stands to reason that if a 9% difference is nothing then a 5% difference is nothing. So let's then look to the next number...TDs. Both of them scored 2 TDs on the year. The only difference here in the numbers is yardage.

Fourth, let's consider their QBs. Brown has Roethlisberger who had over 4000 passing yards and 21 TDs. Little had McCoy with 2733 passing yards and 14 TDs. Both WRs accounted for approximately the same percentage of the team's passing offense. Little accounted for a higher percentage of TDs. McCoy has a number of problems, most notably his inability to get the ball downfield. That hinders his yardage production as well as that of his WRs. Ben isn't going to be losing his job in Pittsburgh unless he retires. McCoy will be replaced. He is a serviceable backup but not an NFL starter.

Fifth, the role on the team in 2011 was very different. Brown has a great WR running on the opposite side who draws double teams, allowing him to work in single coverage underneath. Little has no one in that entire offense with half his talent. He is the only viable NFL starter at WR right now that the Browns even have, drawing a lot more attention by opposing defenses. I see a lot of people dismissing the idea that Brown will see his role change or diminish. Prior to the 2011 season, Sanders was the favorite for that role but lost out on the job due to injury. Color me very skeptical that Brown approaches the same number of targets in 2012 that he enjoyed this season.

Finally, Little is a big, strong, physical WR who stands 6'2" and 220 lb. Brown is a smaller player at 5'10" and 186 lb. who does not possess the same physical dominance. Few WRs enjoy an extended period of success at Brown's size. On physique alone, Little possesses more upside with size and speed (both ran similar 40 times).

You make me feel just a little bit happier about owning Little every single day my friend

Same here....I'm excited about Little this year now!!

[BigB]

I picked Brown here, but it was very tough to pick between the 2. I do believe Little has yet to even begin to show his ceiling, and as Cleveland starts to put other pieces into that offense he becomes an ideal possession receiver and PPR guy. I expect the Browns to begin to put pieces in place this draft to have enough weapons available for whoever they draft to replace Colt next year(not high on Tannehill, so I think they're better to wait until 2013 to take a QB). Adding TRich and a speed receiver(Wright should be there at 22) immediately improves that offense and helps get some of the focus off of Little. Once he has an upgrade at QB I fully expect him to be a very solid receiver for a long time.

The reason I went with Brown in big part is I like his situation more. His QB is better now, and should have a good 4-5 years left at least. Regardless of this whole "back to Steeler football" line we keep getting fed, Arizona wasn't the biggest rushing team when Haley was the O Coordinator, and KC seemed to improve greatly in the passing game when Haley got there before everything fell apart last year. I have no doubt we should still see some big passing numbers from that offense, since that line is built more to pass block right now and they don't really have a running back that can consistently put up big numbers. Brown will also see less coverage because of their receiver depth. I expect Sanders to step into ward's role, and Brown to end up as the slot guy. Welker and Cruz have shown over the last few years the damage that can be done from that spot. And while I don't expect Brown to put up those numbers, I see no reason he can't be a consistent WR2, which is what I expect Little's ceiling to be. Of course, something like Wallace leaving or big changes to the O line could change my opinion. Brown also plays a part in the return game, so if you receive return yards or TDs in your scoring format that's also a plus.

I don't think you can go wrong with either, just think Brown's situation will result in slightly better production for the next few years.

[Deuces]

Definitely Little for me!

[TheMalocchio]

I'm sitting here watching a mock draft they have on NFL network and they have Blackmon and Hill going to the Browns .....wtf?...I hope that bleep doesn't happen. It would mess up my whole plan. I have thr 1.2 plus Little already on my roster, I couldn't draft Blackmon if he's on the browns could I?....I say no, I couldn't.

[The GM]

I'm sitting here watching a mock draft they have on NFL network and they have Blackmon and Hill going to the Browns .....wtf?...I hope that bleep doesn't happen. It would mess up my whole plan. I have thr 1.2 plus Little already on my roster, I couldn't draft Blackmon if he's on the browns could I?....I say no, I couldn't.

Interesting. So Little could possibly not be a starter on his own team. Where have I heard that before?

[TheMalocchio]

theres no way he's not gonna be a starter...that would be stupid if they draft 2 WR's in the first round...but...the are the browns so you may be right.

[Warren]

I voted Little. It basically comes down to the fact that Little is a player I could see starting for my team (if I had him) in a couple of years and would hold onto him until his time came. Brown isn't. Little is a player I'd be buying and Brown isn't. In fact I'd be selling Brown if I had him. Good topic, especially due to the fact that it's a dead heat.

[GregOfTheDead]

It will come as no surprise that my selection is Greg Little. To put it in perspective, my top selection in the "overrated" thread was NOT Roy Helu but rather Antonio Brown. The problem is a simple one...owners will look at the 2011 stats and automatically say that Brown is better. That is the strategy that people are welcome to try to employ in redraft - though it certainly has its failures as well. So I will instead point to several other factors.

First, Antonio Brown was not a rookie but a 2nd year player. Do we really need to do a comparison here? Brown's rookie year was 16-167-0. What had he proven after his rookie season? If Little could be described as "nothing", then we can fairly describe Brown as "less than nothing" and summarily dismiss him as a total bum and bust in the NFL and no one we should ever hear from again.

Second, let's consider how much time these guys have had to work with their teams coming into 2011. One of these guys has been with the club for well over a year. The other had 3-4 weeks.

Third, lets look at the ACTUAL 2011 numbers. Little caught 61 passes on 120 targets (51%). Brown caught 69 passes on 124 targets (56%). There was a thread talking about Denarius Moore a few days ago dismissing his 42% catch rate as close enough to Little's that it was negligible. So it only stands to reason that if a 9% difference is nothing then a 5% difference is nothing. So let's then look to the next number...TDs. Both of them scored 2 TDs on the year. The only difference here in the numbers is yardage.

Fourth, let's consider their QBs. Brown has Roethlisberger who had over 4000 passing yards and 21 TDs. Little had McCoy with 2733 passing yards and 14 TDs. Both WRs accounted for approximately the same percentage of the team's passing offense. Little accounted for a higher percentage of TDs. McCoy has a number of problems, most notably his inability to get the ball downfield. That hinders his yardage production as well as that of his WRs. Ben isn't going to be losing his job in Pittsburgh unless he retires. McCoy will be replaced. He is a serviceable backup but not an NFL starter.

Fifth, the role on the team in 2011 was very different. Brown has a great WR running on the opposite side who draws double teams, allowing him to work in single coverage underneath. Little has no one in that entire offense with half his talent. He is the only viable NFL starter at WR right now that the Browns even have, drawing a lot more attention by opposing defenses. I see a lot of people dismissing the idea that Brown will see his role change or diminish. Prior to the 2011 season, Sanders was the favorite for that role but lost out on the job due to injury. Color me very skeptical that Brown approaches the same number of targets in 2012 that he enjoyed this season.

Finally, Little is a big, strong, physical WR who stands 6'2" and 220 lb. Brown is a smaller player at 5'10" and 186 lb. who does not possess the same physical dominance. Few WRs enjoy an extended period of success at Brown's size. On physique alone, Little possesses more upside with size and speed (both ran similar 40 times).

As a Greg Little owner who took him pretty early in last years rookie draft, I LOVE this post. makes me feel pretty darn optimistic about next year.

[??Droppedballs??]

hard one for me cause i love little but i think brown is under rated, i think his rec will still be there and people forget he only had like 2 tds last yr. I find it hard to beleive that wont go up.

i would lean towards brown, partly because you can get him cheaper and he does have last yrs #s that i beleive he can re-produce with a high probability of more tds