Give D Smith for Pickens + Pacheco

[Randomguess]

12 team, PPR, start 1 QB. 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 non QB flex.
Would you move Smith for those 2 guys? Pickens is a complete wild card. He's young but not confident in his QBs or OC at this point. By drafting MHJ and Nabers, it's unlikely I need Smith long term, but he's still a valuable piece. I like Pacheco a ton this season. Long-term we'll see. This is for team 1 below.

[Anteaters]

Smash accept for me.
But I'm a Pickens believer and think he will match or exceed Devonta's production in 2024 and going forward. They were basically even in 2023, and since the end of the season Pickens has gotten a better QB, a better OC, and been promoted to WR1 by his team.

For me, this is an upgrade at WR production, and getting Pacheco for free.

[Randomguess]

Smash accept for me.
But I'm a Pickens believer and think he will match or exceed Devonta's production in 2024 and going forward. They were basically even in 2023, and since the end of the season Pickens has gotten a better QB, a better OC, and been promoted to WR1 by his team.

For me, this is an upgrade at WR production, and getting Pacheco for free.

Thanks for the feedback. If the Steelers add DK, Aiyuk or Higgins, would you still make this move? That's one of my hesitations. Pickens is the #1 right now, but that could change.

[Anteaters]

Smash accept for me.
But I'm a Pickens believer and think he will match or exceed Devonta's production in 2024 and going forward. They were basically even in 2023, and since the end of the season Pickens has gotten a better QB, a better OC, and been promoted to WR1 by his team.

For me, this is an upgrade at WR production, and getting Pacheco for free.

Thanks for the feedback. If the Steelers add DK, Aiyuk or Higgins, would you still make this move? That's one of my hesitations. Pickens is the #1 right now, but that could change.

With a target hog playing with him in 2023 Pickens matched Devonta's production. Right now, we know Devonta has a true WR1 playing on his team and we know that's not going to change. Right now, we know Pickens is the WR1, but even if he gets competition for his WR1 role Pickens will be in the same situation he was in 2023 when he matched Devonta's production.

Even if Pittsburgh adds a WR (which I think is less than 49% likely) Pickens and Devonta would be basically even in projections. That still equals getting Pacheco for free.

I think this is a good deal to make in a vacuum. It's a great deal for a team that needs a RB.

[TheTroll]

Smash accept for me.
But I'm a Pickens believer and think he will match or exceed Devonta's production in 2024 and going forward. They were basically even in 2023, and since the end of the season Pickens has gotten a better QB, a better OC, and been promoted to WR1 by his team.

For me, this is an upgrade at WR production, and getting Pacheco for free.

Exact-a-mundo!

[Randomguess]

Smash accept for me.
But I'm a Pickens believer and think he will match or exceed Devonta's production in 2024 and going forward. They were basically even in 2023, and since the end of the season Pickens has gotten a better QB, a better OC, and been promoted to WR1 by his team.

For me, this is an upgrade at WR production, and getting Pacheco for free.

Thanks for the feedback. If the Steelers add DK, Aiyuk or Higgins, would you still make this move? That's one of my hesitations. Pickens is the #1 right now, but that could change.

With a target hog playing with him in 2023 Pickens matched Devonta's production. Right now, we know Devonta has a true WR1 playing on his team and we know that's not going to change. Right now, we know Pickens is the WR1, but even if he gets competition for his WR1 role Pickens will be in the same situation he was in 2023 when he matched Devonta's production.

Even if Pittsburgh adds a WR (which I think is less than 49% likely) Pickens and Devonta would be basically even in projections. That still equals getting Pacheco for free.

I think this is a good deal to make in a vacuum. It's a great deal for a team that needs a RB.

Cool, thank you

[moishetreats]

I think D Smith is reasonably higher than Pickens. They both have similar ceilings, but I trust D Smith for high floor production faaaaaaaar more. But adding Pacheco is definitely worth the floor risk, IMO, in most leagues.

And especially in yours. With a start 2WR + 1 flex format, I'm good giving up a higher floor on your 4th WR for a big add at RB, where attrition is far more likely.

TL;DR -- I'd accept pretty easily given your league format and team.

[blemly]

I think D Smith is reasonably higher than Pickens. They both have similar ceilings, but I trust D Smith for high floor production faaaaaaaar more.

Re: Pickens v Smith. I completely agree with your first sentence, at least from a current value perspective. Smith is firmly a 1.04-1.06 and Pickens is in that 1.08-1.12 range. That being said, I disagree that they have similar ceilings.
Pickens has achieved roughly 90% of the total production as Smith (albeit much more volatile) with a substantially worse situation. Smith is locked in as PHI WR2 now and Pickens gets a QB upgrade as the team’s undisputed WR1. He’s younger and has a higher ceiling.