Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[Anteaters]

Gotta disagree with Ant on target %of catches being applicable here. Arthur Smith was an ignoramus of epic proportions using Pitts as clear out deep ball guy so much while creating ways to get the ball in the hands of Jonnu Smith in easier / higher percentage routes. Didn't watch all of the games but of those I did it was mind boggling the ways he used .

Catch percentage should go up close to 10% just based on that alone even without a Cousins addition as an accurate passer.

We'll see.

However, even WRs (who most often run deeper routes than TEs) have better catch rates than Pitts. Puka caught 65.6% last year. AJB caught 67%. Chase caught 69%. ARSB caught 72.6%.

This isn't all about the QB, nor all about coaches, nor all about the routes he's been assigned to run. At some point, we have to stop making excuses for Pitts.

I'm not saying he definitely will not improve. I'm simply saying a lot of the process of him producing better stats starts with him. And that we should not automatically assume he will improve in the areas critical for him to produce better stats. Hopefully, he will.

Something else to consider: Pitts could become a great player for Atlanta in real life, but never become a fantasy stud. There's no shame in that. If he helps his NFL team win games, that's what his job is. Not necessarily to catch 90--00 passes a year. It may be that in the new Atlanta offense, London because a super alpha receiver and Pitts plays more of a ... Jonnu Smith role?

[Jigga94]

So many stats being misused and abused

[CGW]

Not real sure why we are comparing apples and oranges. Pitts and Smith were not even playing the same position last year. They were both listed as "TEs", but that's where the similarities end. One was a hybrid TE running screens and short dump offs and inline stuff(adot of 6.1) while the other was running primarily down field option routes and clear out routes as the flex TE(adot of 11.4). Pretty sure the catch rates listed above for these two clearly points to usage and how bad the QB was down field more than anything else.

It remains to be seen how the new system will feature Pitts, but I'm pretty optimistic that his catch rate will go up when he starts seeing more accurate/catchable passes from an actual QB, on top of running more friendly routes. I'd find it very difficult to believe he isn't in for a big bounce back when you factor in the departure of Jonnu Smith, upgrade at head coach, and the massive upgrade at QB.

[murphysxm]

So many stats being misused and abused

Prime example of you can always use statistics to prove your point

[CGW]

So many stats being misused and abused

Prime example of you can always use statistics to prove your point

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

[Sriracha]

So many stats being misused and abused

To be fair, Marcus Mariota has been very good throwing to TEs throughout his career. Pitts' abysmal catch percentage with him does lend creedence to the idea that he may have been more responsible for that number than people are giving him credit for.

When a pass is wildly off target people tend to blame the QBs but it could easily be the receiver misdiagnosing the route he's supposed to run, running imprecise routes or making poor adjustments.

This past year Pitts did not look good, at all but a lot of that can probably attributed to him gutting through an injury the entire year.

[trc]

So many stats being misused and abused

To be fair, Marcus Mariota has been very good throwing to TEs throughout his career. Pitts' abysmal catch percentage with him does lend creedence to the idea that he may have been more responsible for that number than people are giving him credit for.

When a pass is wildly off target people tend to blame the QBs but it could easily be the receiver misdiagnosing the route he's supposed to run, running imprecise routes or making poor adjustments.

This past year Pitts did not look good, at all but a lot of that can probably attributed to him gutting through an injury the entire year.

As someone mentioned above. Pitts aDOT for the season was the highest for all TE, sans 2 TE's that combined for 4 targets the entire season.
He was basically playing WR (same aDOT as Drake), I don't think Mariota's history with TE's is relevant for Pitts.

[Sriracha]

So many stats being misused and abused

To be fair, Marcus Mariota has been very good throwing to TEs throughout his career. Pitts' abysmal catch percentage with him does lend creedence to the idea that he may have been more responsible for that number than people are giving him credit for.

When a pass is wildly off target people tend to blame the QBs but it could easily be the receiver misdiagnosing the route he's supposed to run, running imprecise routes or making poor adjustments.

This past year Pitts did not look good, at all but a lot of that can probably attributed to him gutting through an injury the entire year.

As someone mentioned above. Pitts aDOT for the season was the highest for all TE, sans 2 TE's that combined for 4 targets the entire season.
He was basically playing WR (same aDOT as Drake), I don't think Mariota's history with TE's is relevant for Pitts.

In the last year Delanie Walker was healthy (2017) his ADoT was 10.1. Less than Pitts? Absolutely but you really want to tell me that 1 ADoT is supposed to account for a 20% delta in catch percentage?

Mariota is a flawed QB that struggles throwing the boundary (especially the left side) but he's legitimately a very good seam thrower -- which is a very important part of the field for downfield TEs to succeed in.

The sheer number of excuses people make up for Pitts just not playing well is mind boggling. You can still be high on his upside while acknowledging that he has thus far into his career not played up to his talent.

[mild]

The sheer number of excuses people make up for Pitts just not playing well is mind boggling. You can still be high on his upside while acknowledging that he has thus far into his career not played up to his talent.

(Except that one time when he had the dying ghost of a good QB and went for 1000 yards as a 21 year old rookie, sure, but shhhhhhhhh we don't talk about that...)

[Sriracha]

The sheer number of excuses people make up for Pitts just not playing well is mind boggling. You can still be high on his upside while acknowledging that he has thus far into his career not played up to his talent.

(Except that one time when he had the dying ghost of a good QB and went for 1000 yards as a 21 year old rookie, sure, but shhhhhhhhh we don't talk about that...)

Competing for targets with literally no one of note.

Evan Engram also looked great in a similar scenario

[trc]

To be fair, Marcus Mariota has been very good throwing to TEs throughout his career. Pitts' abysmal catch percentage with him does lend creedence to the idea that he may have been more responsible for that number than people are giving him credit for.

When a pass is wildly off target people tend to blame the QBs but it could easily be the receiver misdiagnosing the route he's supposed to run, running imprecise routes or making poor adjustments.

This past year Pitts did not look good, at all but a lot of that can probably attributed to him gutting through an injury the entire year.

As someone mentioned above. Pitts aDOT for the season was the highest for all TE, sans 2 TE's that combined for 4 targets the entire season.
He was basically playing WR (same aDOT as Drake), I don't think Mariota's history with TE's is relevant for Pitts.

In the last year Delanie Walker was healthy (2017) his ADoT was 10.1. Less than Pitts? Absolutely but you really want to tell me that 1 ADoT is supposed to account for a 20% delta in catch percentage?

Mariota is a flawed QB that struggles throwing the boundary (especially the left side) but he's legitimately a very good seam thrower -- which is a very important part of the field for downfield TEs to succeed in.

The sheer number of excuses people make up for Pitts just not playing well is mind boggling. You can still be high on his upside while acknowledging that he has thus far into his career not played up to his talent.

Pitts aDOt with Mariota was 13.7 (and partly Ridder).
Nonetheless I don't understand what 2017 Mariota has to do with 2022 Mariota. He wasn't the same player, he was horrendous in 2022. Just like Ridder was in 2023.

Would I have liked more from Pitts in 2023, sure. But I would also have liked more from Drake and Bijan. The entire offence was a dumpster fire. Acknowledgement goes both ways.

[kmbryant09]

For starters, Pitts has to be better than Engram and Njoku. I'm not sure Pitts can do that.

That 80 catches looks both reasonable and too much. Even in Pitts' "breakout" rookie season when he had 1000+ yards, he had only 68 receptions. Yeah, less than 1 extra catch per game for 17 games will put him over 80.

Little known fact: TJHockenson averaged more receptions per game in 2023 with other QBs than he did in the games Cousins played. Not by much, but the stat is real.

If you don't think he has more talent than Engram and Njoku... then this probably isn't the thread for you.

Little known fact:

TJ Hockensen targets in 2023: 127
Kyle Pitts targets in 2023: 90

It doesn't have to be a whole 30% increase in the amount, but anything where we bridge that gap is money in the bank.

TJHockenson is averaging about 72% catch percentage since arriving in Minnesota. Maybe the coaches/QBs in Atlanta would have targeted Pitts more if he caught passes as consistently as Hockenson? Why keep throwing to a guy who drops passes more frequently than the best of TEs? There is a reason why Jonnu got a lot of targets at TE last year and the reason is not because the coaches were stupid.

Little known fact: While receiving passes from the same QBs as Pitts in 2023, Jonnu Smith caught 71.4% of passes that came his way.
Reminder: In 2023, Pitts caught 58.9% of passes that came his way.
That's why Pitts was not targeted more. Because the coaches and QBs trusted Jonnu more to complete the catch.

If Pitts improves his catch rate, I think he'll have a good chance at a more productive season. If Pitts remains around a 61% catch rate, Cousins will target Pitts less often than you'd want.

I guess you've never heard of average depth of target (aDot) and/or how it correlates to catch %, but you sure are confident in your take!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It’s debatable how accurate these stats are, but Per playerprofiler, Pitts “true catch rate” last year was 93%, good for #9 overall in that area.

[Anteaters]

It’s debatable how accurate these stats are, but Per playerprofiler, Pitts “true catch rate” last year was 93%, good for #9 overall in that area.

Interesting.

Can a non-subscriber view that list? If so, link please. I located Pitts' page with that reference, but I'd love to analyze the full list and, if offered, look under the hood at their methodology.

[Anteaters]

TJHockenson is averaging about 72% catch percentage since arriving in Minnesota. Maybe the coaches/QBs in Atlanta would have targeted Pitts more if he caught passes as consistently as Hockenson? Why keep throwing to a guy who drops passes more frequently than the best of TEs? There is a reason why Jonnu got a lot of targets at TE last year and the reason is not because the coaches were stupid.

Little known fact: While receiving passes from the same QBs as Pitts in 2023, Jonnu Smith caught 71.4% of passes that came his way.
Reminder: In 2023, Pitts caught 58.9% of passes that came his way.
That's why Pitts was not targeted more. Because the coaches and QBs trusted Jonnu more to complete the catch.

If Pitts improves his catch rate, I think he'll have a good chance at a more productive season. If Pitts remains around a 61% catch rate, Cousins will target Pitts less often than you'd want.

I guess you've never heard of average depth of target (aDot) and/or how it correlates to catch %, but you sure are confident in your take!

I'm confident in my take because it's ludicrous to think a TE who averages catching 58% will, during that season, produce a stellar fantasy season.

What most of the Pittsians here seem to miss is several times I have said "IF PITTS IMPROVES HIS CATCH PERCENTAGE HE CAN BE BETTER." Instead, all the Pittsians can't wait to jump in and make excuses for their hero, while also shooting the messenger. What I haven't seen is ONE PERSON here who says a TE can deliver a top fantasy season while catching less than 60% of the passes that come his way. No one argues that because it's a stupid argument. What's happening is people continue to repeat excuses. That's fine, but it admits the truth that Pitts has to perform better to be the fantasy asset many thought he was/is destined to be.

Whether we use statistical evidence or use excuses, we're both saying the same thing: Pitts' fantasy production, especially the last two seasons, has been far below what many people expected he would produce. We all agree that if his fantasy production does not improve, his career will be a huge disappointment. Or maybe I missed the posts where everyone is high-fiving everyone else saying "Pitts won me a championship last year!!!!!" No? Okay, we all agree Pitts stats have to improve before he is a must-have TE.

What we apparently disagree on is some people place 0% of the blame for Pitts unimpressive production on Pitts himself, while I place some of the blame on Pitts himself. Some people think Pitts is a perfect TE as is, and it was everything else that has kept him from being the next Kelce. I think Pitts has to look at the man in the mirror improve a few things in his game (as nearly every player must do) to be more productive.

I agree Pitts has a lot of positive athletic measurables. I agree that if he improves in a couple of key ways that he can be a TE I'd try to acquire. Where I disagree is that Pitts is an automatic slam dunk give-up-the-world-to-acquire TE. He has to show improvement to get to that level.

IF he improves, he can be very good. I hope he does. I have never said Pitts cannot or will not improve. I simply say he must improve if he is to become a must-own fantasy asset. I find it truly stunning that people are arguing against that opinion.