George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[TheTroll]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

It’s not all pluses. He’s also going to draw opponent’s best cover guy, and I’m pretty convinced Pickens is not talented enough to win a game long battle with any shut down corners he’ll face. Being a team’s WR1 is only a plus when the guy is a legit alpha.

This is how I kinda feel too. I think his best chance is Fields under center and scrambling making the defense worry about him more than Pickens.

[Cameron Giles]

Pittsburgh's offseason:

- Signed a veteran QB, who's probably cooked as a high volume passer
- Traded for a young QB, who has question marks as a high volume passer
- Traded their best route runner and separator, and didn't replace him with anyone comparable
- Used 3 of their first 4 draft picks on offensive lineman
- Drafted a solid WR who has a rep for being a good blocker, but is unproven as a volume receiver
- Currently sports one of the worst WR rooms in the league
- Cherry on top: Brought in an OC, who's never had a season with passing attempts higher than the league average (31st, 30th, 19th, 31st, 25th)

Everything they've done looks like an offense that I'd want to avoid if my goal is to win leagues. They're going to run the ball, pass miserably, and hope their defense can put the offense in a position to not have to go far to score.

Pickens is the WR1 by far. He'll probably have a 1000 yards by the end of the season. But, as we've seen with Arthur Smith offenses....it's going to be ugly getting there. If people are paying breakout prices for him, I'd cash in.

[dynastyninja]

Pittsburgh's offseason:

- Signed a veteran QB, who's probably cooked as a high volume passer
- Traded for a young QB, who has question marks as a high volume passer
- Traded their best route runner and separator, and didn't replace him with anyone comparable
- Used 3 of their first 4 draft picks on offensive lineman
- Drafted a solid WR who has a rep for being a good blocker, but is unproven as a volume receiver
- Currently sports one of the worst WR rooms in the league
- Cherry on top: Brought in an OC, who's never had a season with passing attempts higher than the league average (31st, 30th, 19th, 31st, 25th)

This description of the Steelers offseason is as pessimistic as it could possibly be, so much so that I doubt you actually believe all of it.

I have no horse in the Pickens race, but I love the QB moves for PIT, they traded his primary target competition, and they invested heavily in protecting the QB (which will benefit him). They literally couldn't have drafted better for Pickens' benefit specifically.

[Cameron Giles]

Pittsburgh's offseason:

- Signed a veteran QB, who's probably cooked as a high volume passer
- Traded for a young QB, who has question marks as a high volume passer
- Traded their best route runner and separator, and didn't replace him with anyone comparable
- Used 3 of their first 4 draft picks on offensive lineman
- Drafted a solid WR who has a rep for being a good blocker, but is unproven as a volume receiver
- Currently sports one of the worst WR rooms in the league
- Cherry on top: Brought in an OC, who's never had a season with passing attempts higher than the league average (31st, 30th, 19th, 31st, 25th)

This description of the Steelers offseason is as pessimistic as it could possibly be, so much so that I doubt you actually believe all of it.

I have no horse in the Pickens race, but I love the QB moves for PIT, they traded his primary target competition, and they invested heavily in protecting the QB (which will benefit him). They literally couldn't have drafted better for Pickens' benefit specifically.

- Russell Wilson's 4th new offense in 4 seasons.
- His Y/A has gradually declined during that time.
- He's posted 3 of his 4 lowest QBR seasons during that time.

Sure, he's better than Pickett, but that's a low and useless bar.

Pickens got better last year, but can you think of a Steelers offense under Tomlin that's worked without a really good RB or an elite route runner? I can't.

Pickens will get volume, but it will be ugly and the offense is going to scrape for mediocrity. Maybe I'm wrong, but everything I'm looking at shows a bottom tier offense for Pittsburgh. Going from Canada to Smith is not ideal.

[mild]

Pittsburgh's offseason:

- Signed a veteran QB, who's probably cooked as a high volume passer
- Traded for a young QB, who has question marks as a high volume passer
- Traded their best route runner and separator, and didn't replace him with anyone comparable
- Used 3 of their first 4 draft picks on offensive lineman
- Drafted a solid WR who has a rep for being a good blocker, but is unproven as a volume receiver
- Currently sports one of the worst WR rooms in the league
- Cherry on top: Brought in an OC, who's never had a season with passing attempts higher than the league average (31st, 30th, 19th, 31st, 25th)

This description of the Steelers offseason is as pessimistic as it could possibly be, so much so that I doubt you actually believe all of it.

I have no horse in the Pickens race, but I love the QB moves for PIT, they traded his primary target competition, and they invested heavily in protecting the QB (which will benefit him). They literally couldn't have drafted better for Pickens' benefit specifically.

You say pessimistic, I would say "realistic".

I believe literally everything he wrote, because it's pretty much all just stats / truth.

The only exception would be that I like the Roman Wilson pick re. "worst WR room in the league" - but I agree that he is in no way ready to be Diontae Johnson straight out of the gate.

You should canvas Drake London (or even Courtland Sutton) owners from last year about how good it feels to be cheering for the #1 WR in a Arthur Smith (or modern Russ) offense.

"Get ready to learn high efficiency, buddy!" (literally his only hope)

[FantasyFreak]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

It’s not all pluses. He’s also going to draw opponent’s best cover guy, and I’m pretty convinced Pickens is not talented enough to win a game long battle with any shut down corners he’ll face. Being a team’s WR1 is only a plus when the guy is a legit alpha.

Weeks 2 through 5 Diontae wasn't on the field.

Stat lines

4/127/1 vs Cleveland

4/75 vs Raiders

3/25 vs Texans

6/130/1 vs Ravens

That's not all that bad IMO.

That's 17/357/2 in a 4 game stretch as the "alpha".

Other than my Raiders, those are 3 good D's, too.

[Sriracha]

Pittsburgh's offseason:

- Signed a veteran QB, who's probably cooked as a high volume passer
- Traded for a young QB, who has question marks as a high volume passer
- Traded their best route runner and separator, and didn't replace him with anyone comparable
- Used 3 of their first 4 draft picks on offensive lineman
- Drafted a solid WR who has a rep for being a good blocker, but is unproven as a volume receiver
- Currently sports one of the worst WR rooms in the league
- Cherry on top: Brought in an OC, who's never had a season with passing attempts higher than the league average (31st, 30th, 19th, 31st, 25th)

This description of the Steelers offseason is as pessimistic as it could possibly be, so much so that I doubt you actually believe all of it.

I have no horse in the Pickens race, but I love the QB moves for PIT, they traded his primary target competition, and they invested heavily in protecting the QB (which will benefit him). They literally couldn't have drafted better for Pickens' benefit specifically.

You say pessimistic, I would say "realistic".

I believe literally everything he wrote, because it's pretty much all just stats / truth.

The only exception would be that I like the Roman Wilson pick re. "worst WR room in the league" - but I agree that he is in no way ready to be Diontae Johnson straight out of the gate.

You should canvas Drake London (or even Courtland Sutton) owners from last year about how good it feels to be cheering for the #1 WR in a Arthur Smith (or modern Russ) offense.

"Get ready to learn high efficiency, buddy!" (literally his only hope)

I have no idea how the Steelers routinely get these gems in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds.

Roman Wilson doesn’t even have the character concerns some of the other guys had — was just playing in Harbaugh’s offense.

I’d be surprised if Pickens is as much of a target hog as people are assuming in this thread

[FantasyFreak]

This description of the Steelers offseason is as pessimistic as it could possibly be, so much so that I doubt you actually believe all of it.

I have no horse in the Pickens race, but I love the QB moves for PIT, they traded his primary target competition, and they invested heavily in protecting the QB (which will benefit him). They literally couldn't have drafted better for Pickens' benefit specifically.

You say pessimistic, I would say "realistic".

I believe literally everything he wrote, because it's pretty much all just stats / truth.

The only exception would be that I like the Roman Wilson pick re. "worst WR room in the league" - but I agree that he is in no way ready to be Diontae Johnson straight out of the gate.

You should canvas Drake London (or even Courtland Sutton) owners from last year about how good it feels to be cheering for the #1 WR in a Arthur Smith (or modern Russ) offense.

"Get ready to learn high efficiency, buddy!" (literally his only hope)

I have no idea how the Steelers routinely get these gems in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds.

Roman Wilson doesn’t even have the character concerns some of the other guys had — was just playing in Harbaugh’s offense.

I’d be surprised if Pickens is as much of a target hog as people are assuming in this thread

Because of Roman, year 1? Roman isn't anything like Diontae, though. Roman's a downfield guy. He's Marvin Mims.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

You say pessimistic, I would say "realistic".

I believe literally everything he wrote, because it's pretty much all just stats / truth.

The only exception would be that I like the Roman Wilson pick re. "worst WR room in the league" - but I agree that he is in no way ready to be Diontae Johnson straight out of the gate.

You should canvas Drake London (or even Courtland Sutton) owners from last year about how good it feels to be cheering for the #1 WR in a Arthur Smith (or modern Russ) offense.

"Get ready to learn high efficiency, buddy!" (literally his only hope)

I have no idea how the Steelers routinely get these gems in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds.

Roman Wilson doesn’t even have the character concerns some of the other guys had — was just playing in Harbaugh’s offense.

I’d be surprised if Pickens is as much of a target hog as people are assuming in this thread

Because of Roman, year 1? Roman isn't anything like Diontae, though. Roman's a downfield guy. He's Marvin Mims.

I have not watched a ton of film but Mims was a very uninspiring downfield guy. I didn’t like him much at all last offseason. He could run straight down the field and track the ball well but that was about it. Wilson at least has some juice and route running wiggle, and was asked to do more than Mims. Just my 2 cents anyway

[FantasyFreak]

I have no idea how the Steelers routinely get these gems in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds.

Roman Wilson doesn’t even have the character concerns some of the other guys had — was just playing in Harbaugh’s offense.

I’d be surprised if Pickens is as much of a target hog as people are assuming in this thread

Because of Roman, year 1? Roman isn't anything like Diontae, though. Roman's a downfield guy. He's Marvin Mims.

I have not watched a ton of film but Mims was a very uninspiring downfield guy. I didn’t like him much at all last offseason. He could run straight down the field and track the ball well but that was about it. Wilson at least has some juice and route running wiggle, and was asked to do more than Mims. Just my 2 cents anyway

I am talking more about how he's used, and what type of player he is. I'd agree he has a bit more wiggle, but there's little chance he's going to be a high target player this season. He's not going to be the reason Pickens isn't a "taget hog". Pickens will be the highest targeted player on this team, the question is, what does that mean? 120? 130? IDK. I'd almost guarantee it's more than the 106 he got last season.

Also, Mims wasn't asked to do much. He was running clearing routes a lot. The fact he's one of the leagues best punt returners would suggest, he can do something in the shorter areas at some point.

[mild]

I am talking more about how he's used, and what type of player he is. I'd agree he has a bit more wiggle, but there's little chance he's going to be a high target player this season. He's not going to be the reason Pickens isn't a "taget hog". Pickens will be the highest targeted player on this team, the question is, what does that mean? 120? 130? IDK. I'd almost guarantee it's more than the 106 he got last season.

Once again for the hard of hearing in the back:

How many targets is George Pickens getting this year?

I imagine somewhere between 2023 Courtland Sutton's 90 targets and 2023 Drake London's 110 targets.

2023's fantasy WR35 and WR39 salute you and thank you for your service.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Because of Roman, year 1? Roman isn't anything like Diontae, though. Roman's a downfield guy. He's Marvin Mims.

I have not watched a ton of film but Mims was a very uninspiring downfield guy. I didn’t like him much at all last offseason. He could run straight down the field and track the ball well but that was about it. Wilson at least has some juice and route running wiggle, and was asked to do more than Mims. Just my 2 cents anyway

I am talking more about how he's used, and what type of player he is. I'd agree he has a bit more wiggle, but there's little chance he's going to be a high target player this season. He's not going to be the reason Pickens isn't a "taget hog". Pickens will be the highest targeted player on this team, the question is, what does that mean? 120? 130? IDK. I'd almost guarantee it's more than the 106 he got last season.

Also, Mims wasn't asked to do much. He was running clearing routes a lot. The fact he's one of the leagues best punt returners would suggest, he can do something in the shorter areas at some point.

Yeah, I agree he shouldn’t affect Pickens much. Was just commenting on the Mims comp.

[FantasyFreak]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

It’s not all pluses. He’s also going to draw opponent’s best cover guy, and I’m pretty convinced Pickens is not talented enough to win a game long battle with any shut down corners he’ll face. Being a team’s WR1 is only a plus when the guy is a legit alpha.

This is how I kinda feel too. I think his best chance is Fields under center and scrambling making the defense worry about him more than Pickens.

Do either of you care to comment on the sample size we already saw last year, because he produced, against 2 very good D's, in this situation. (Browns/Ravens). We saw it for 4 games, and like I said, he put up 17/357/2 over that stretch, with no Diontae, including 2 big games vs the aforementioned team.

He was 22 years old, and he'll have another off season to improve his game, as a young player, so I am not sure exactly why you think he isn't capable. Personally, I see the 106 targets he got last year, as his floor, but IDK what the ceiling is, there. I suppose it will in part depend on how many games the Steelers are trailing by multiple scores in.

[FantasyFreak]

I have not watched a ton of film but Mims was a very uninspiring downfield guy. I didn’t like him much at all last offseason. He could run straight down the field and track the ball well but that was about it. Wilson at least has some juice and route running wiggle, and was asked to do more than Mims. Just my 2 cents anyway

I am talking more about how he's used, and what type of player he is. I'd agree he has a bit more wiggle, but there's little chance he's going to be a high target player this season. He's not going to be the reason Pickens isn't a "taget hog". Pickens will be the highest targeted player on this team, the question is, what does that mean? 120? 130? IDK. I'd almost guarantee it's more than the 106 he got last season.

Also, Mims wasn't asked to do much. He was running clearing routes a lot. The fact he's one of the leagues best punt returners would suggest, he can do something in the shorter areas at some point.

Yeah, I agree he shouldn’t affect Pickens much. Was just commenting on the Mims comp.

Fair. I am curious to see how Payton uses Mims this year, TBH, with Jeudy gone. I think he'll have an increased role, as he was running 9's almost exclusively last year.

I do think Roman is a bit more compact, and likely to be used a bit more over the middle of the field.

[Cameron Giles]

I don't have a concern that Pickens can't produce against a #1 corner. I think Mild's point is correct.

Go back and look at what the top WRs in an Arthur Smith offense have done. It's just so much inconsistency and passing volume is always way below the league average. That's the concern you should have with Pickens. Brown, Pitts, London....all of them struggled to get consistency with Smith, even if they all ended up getting 1000 or close to it at the end of the season. I think it's going to be more of the same.

You throw a Russell Wilson (not at his peak) or Justin Fields on top of it?

Everything this team did in the offseason on offense is tell you that they are going to run the ball hard and the passing is going to be volatile.