Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[TheTroll]

So long as we're talking about Drake Maye for a second...

I wonder if he's going to be a good locker room guy?

I think so, unless none of his teammates attended his 21sy birthday party.

[Hankybro21]

I’ve been in on Caleb for forever like everyone else but I think you’ve swayed me

Not everybody else, but I will acknowledge that the perception of him right now attaches massive value.

And the value piece was kinda what I was getting. I'm sitting on a tradeback from Caleb, where I'd get Daniels or Maye and pick up an early 25 1 and a mid 25 1 on top. Excited to see if the draft helps sort this all out a bit better

[mild]

via Albert Breer:

An NFC pass-game coordinator on Daniels: “I love this kid, I think he’s really special. … This guy plays fast, he’s a problem in the run game, and he has the arm to rip it down the field. His accuracy will improve as he keeps working on his base. The debate between him and Drake Maye to me is not a debate. He’s so much better.”

[Valhalla]

So long as we're talking about Drake Maye for a second...

I wonder if he's going to be a good locker room guy?

I think so, unless none of his teammates attended his 21sy birthday party.

You know, it’s not something he’s very proud of, but he can’t remember a single thing from that night.

[tstafford]

I’ve been in on Caleb for forever like everyone else but I think you’ve swayed me

Not everybody else, but I will acknowledge that the perception of him right now attaches massive value.

And the value piece was kinda what I was getting. I'm sitting on a tradeback from Caleb, where I'd get Daniels or Maye and pick up an early 25 1 and a mid 25 1 on top. Excited to see if the draft helps sort this all out a bit better

Does the trade down give you the choice of Maye or Daniels? Or will it yield you the 3rd QB? Asking because I'd for sure do a deal that got me the choice of the QB2 in return for those picks. That's a ton of value. Obviously CW is a terrific prospect but I don't believe the gap for FF is two first round picks. I'd for sure take it if I got to choose b/w Maye/Daniels (and the option for a WR as well). The top of this draft is so good.

[TheTroll]

Not everybody else, but I will acknowledge that the perception of him right now attaches massive value.

And the value piece was kinda what I was getting. I'm sitting on a tradeback from Caleb, where I'd get Daniels or Maye and pick up an early 25 1 and a mid 25 1 on top. Excited to see if the draft helps sort this all out a bit better

Does the trade down give you the choice of Maye or Daniels? Or will it yield you the 3rd QB? Asking because I'd for sure do a deal that got me the choice of the QB2 in return for those picks. That's a ton of value. Obviously CW is a terrific prospect but I don't believe the gap for FF is two first round picks. I'd for sure take it if I got to choose b/w Maye/Daniels (and the option for a WR as well). The top of this draft is so good.

Darn he beat me to it. The only thing that scares me about Maye is being stuck on NEP. That offense as currently constructed feels very Carolina like with talent around the QB.

EDIT: just for clarification I’m not comparing the two organizations but just the current talent

[tstafford]

The raging debate about Nabers vs. Wilson got me thinking about rookie inflation so I did a quick look at prior ADP. I'd argue that rookie hype is at an all time high. Some interesting data from historical DLF SF Start-up ADP.

June 2021: Chase was overall pick #48 (he's 100% the prospect that MHJR is and there's no way MHJR drops to #48 in June start-ups)
June 2020: Burrow was overall pick #39 (he and Daniels are similar in some ways, again Daniels isn't dropping to #39 and won't be the NFL 1.01. Note: if we compare Burrow to CW the gap is even bigger. But I think people will argue CW is a better prospect so I went with Daniels

2022 is a special case because it was awful for SF. No QBs unless you count Pickett. Hall was going off at #24 (starting to see some inflation) but London was buried at #59 (zero chance a WR drafted #8 in the NFL drops like that these days).

2023 the hype had set in Bijan at #11, AR at #13, BY at #18 and Stroud at #23. JSN at overall #45 had a higher start-up ADP than JaMarr Chase had as a rookie.

I'm not saying this shift is right or wrong. But I do think it's a highly noteworthy change in our game. It's more or less inarguable that top tier rookies are valued much higher today than just a few years ago. It's trends like this that savvy dynasty managers use to capture value.

[Anteaters]

via Albert Breer:

An NFC pass-game coordinator on Daniels: “I love this kid, I think he’s really special. … This guy plays fast, he’s a problem in the run game, and he has the arm to rip it down the field. His accuracy will improve as he keeps working on his base. The debate between him and Drake Maye to me is not a debate. He’s so much better.”

I have no shot at him in SF, but in 1QB leagues, I'm definitely thinking of taking him "early for a QB". If he hits, he's going to be huge. If he misses, the cost in 1QB makes it inconsequential to my team(s)

[BabyChark23]

The raging debate about Nabers vs. Wilson got me thinking about rookie inflation so I did a quick look at prior ADP. I'd argue that rookie hype is at an all time high. Some interesting data from historical DLF SF Start-up ADP.

June 2021: Chase was overall pick #48 (he's 100% the prospect that MHJR is and there's no way MHJR drops to #48 in June start-ups)
June 2020: Burrow was overall pick #39 (he and Daniels are similar in some ways, again Daniels isn't dropping to #39 and won't be the NFL 1.01. Note: if we compare Burrow to CW the gap is even bigger. But I think people will argue CW is a better prospect so I went with Daniels

2022 is a special case because it was awful for SF. No QBs unless you count Pickett. Hall was going off at #24 (starting to see some inflation) but London was buried at #59 (zero chance a WR drafted #8 in the NFL drops like that these days).

2023 the hype had set in Bijan at #11, AR at #13, BY at #18 and Stroud at #23. JSN at overall #45 had a higher start-up ADP than JaMarr Chase had as a rookie.

I'm not saying this shift is right or wrong. But I do think it's a highly noteworthy change in our game. It's more or less inarguable that top tier rookies are valued much higher today than just a few years ago. It's trends like this that savvy dynasty managers use to capture value.

Not sure if that’s a global trend or specific to this class looking so special

[TheTroll]

The raging debate about Nabers vs. Wilson got me thinking about rookie inflation so I did a quick look at prior ADP. I'd argue that rookie hype is at an all time high. Some interesting data from historical DLF SF Start-up ADP.

June 2021: Chase was overall pick #48 (he's 100% the prospect that MHJR is and there's no way MHJR drops to #48 in June start-ups)
June 2020: Burrow was overall pick #39 (he and Daniels are similar in some ways, again Daniels isn't dropping to #39 and won't be the NFL 1.01. Note: if we compare Burrow to CW the gap is even bigger. But I think people will argue CW is a better prospect so I went with Daniels

2022 is a special case because it was awful for SF. No QBs unless you count Pickett. Hall was going off at #24 (starting to see some inflation) but London was buried at #59 (zero chance a WR drafted #8 in the NFL drops like that these days).

2023 the hype had set in Bijan at #11, AR at #13, BY at #18 and Stroud at #23. JSN at overall #45 had a higher start-up ADP than JaMarr Chase had as a rookie.

I'm not saying this shift is right or wrong. But I do think it's a highly noteworthy change in our game. It's more or less inarguable that top tier rookies are valued much higher today than just a few years ago. It's trends like this that savvy dynasty managers use to capture value.

Not sure if that’s a global trend or specific to this class looking so special

If you are in a full rebuild and collected many 1sts, every draft class feels mouthwatering. If you haven’t eaten in a week, even a PB&J feeling like filet mignon.

The combo of where you are at with your process and rookie fever matter a lot. I think this draft class is special and the ones with the rebuild in mind and collected the draft capital in advance will be happy.

[tstafford]

The raging debate about Nabers vs. Wilson got me thinking about rookie inflation so I did a quick look at prior ADP. I'd argue that rookie hype is at an all time high. Some interesting data from historical DLF SF Start-up ADP.

June 2021: Chase was overall pick #48 (he's 100% the prospect that MHJR is and there's no way MHJR drops to #48 in June start-ups)
June 2020: Burrow was overall pick #39 (he and Daniels are similar in some ways, again Daniels isn't dropping to #39 and won't be the NFL 1.01. Note: if we compare Burrow to CW the gap is even bigger. But I think people will argue CW is a better prospect so I went with Daniels

2022 is a special case because it was awful for SF. No QBs unless you count Pickett. Hall was going off at #24 (starting to see some inflation) but London was buried at #59 (zero chance a WR drafted #8 in the NFL drops like that these days).

2023 the hype had set in Bijan at #11, AR at #13, BY at #18 and Stroud at #23. JSN at overall #45 had a higher start-up ADP than JaMarr Chase had as a rookie.

I'm not saying this shift is right or wrong. But I do think it's a highly noteworthy change in our game. It's more or less inarguable that top tier rookies are valued much higher today than just a few years ago. It's trends like this that savvy dynasty managers use to capture value.

Not sure if that’s a global trend or specific to this class looking so special

It's not just this draft class. Look at the numbers for '23 vs. the prior years. I think the most telling example is in June '21 Chase had an ADP of #48, same time last year JSN was #45.

[Anteaters]

The raging debate about Nabers vs. Wilson got me thinking about rookie inflation so I did a quick look at prior ADP. I'd argue that rookie hype is at an all time high. Some interesting data from historical DLF SF Start-up ADP.

June 2021: Chase was overall pick #48 (he's 100% the prospect that MHJR is and there's no way MHJR drops to #48 in June start-ups)
June 2020: Burrow was overall pick #39 (he and Daniels are similar in some ways, again Daniels isn't dropping to #39 and won't be the NFL 1.01. Note: if we compare Burrow to CW the gap is even bigger. But I think people will argue CW is a better prospect so I went with Daniels

2022 is a special case because it was awful for SF. No QBs unless you count Pickett. Hall was going off at #24 (starting to see some inflation) but London was buried at #59 (zero chance a WR drafted #8 in the NFL drops like that these days).

2023 the hype had set in Bijan at #11, AR at #13, BY at #18 and Stroud at #23. JSN at overall #45 had a higher start-up ADP than JaMarr Chase had as a rookie.

I'm not saying this shift is right or wrong. But I do think it's a highly noteworthy change in our game. It's more or less inarguable that top tier rookies are valued much higher today than just a few years ago. It's trends like this that savvy dynasty managers use to capture value.

It would be interesting to see statistics for the number of dynasty leagues active in each of the past 10 years or so. Also, the percentages dynasty leagues to the total number of all leagues over the past decade.

It could be that as dynasty's popularity grows, the newbies have a tendency to overvalue the "longer term" rostering of the 4th rookie WR over 3-4 more years of a 26 year old WR16 in his prime. A lot of these rookie valuations seem to focus only on the best-case-scenario for a rookie, and downplay the possibility that a rookie will end up with a more average career. 4 more years of DKM is obviously more valuable than 8 years of Jeudy/PCampbell/Bateman. I think the risk of a 1st round fantasy pick not being a top tier stud is not baked into the current valuations.

Also, something I've noticed from being a redraft commissioner for 20+ years is how much younger newbies value rookies. In my long-standing dynasty leagues, younger managers (age 20-25) seem to be more willing to draft rookies than older fantasy managers (age 40+). The youngest managers in my redraft leagues have been drafting rookies very high for the last four or five years. I wonder if that tendency carries over to dynasty managers in their early 20s? This is more anecdotal than hard statistics, but I'd love to see a survey that takes managers' ages into account.

Rookie fever can affect managers of all ages and experience, but it would be interesting to see surveys broken down by age and experience.

[TheTroll]

The raging debate about Nabers vs. Wilson got me thinking about rookie inflation so I did a quick look at prior ADP. I'd argue that rookie hype is at an all time high. Some interesting data from historical DLF SF Start-up ADP.

June 2021: Chase was overall pick #48 (he's 100% the prospect that MHJR is and there's no way MHJR drops to #48 in June start-ups)
June 2020: Burrow was overall pick #39 (he and Daniels are similar in some ways, again Daniels isn't dropping to #39 and won't be the NFL 1.01. Note: if we compare Burrow to CW the gap is even bigger. But I think people will argue CW is a better prospect so I went with Daniels

2022 is a special case because it was awful for SF. No QBs unless you count Pickett. Hall was going off at #24 (starting to see some inflation) but London was buried at #59 (zero chance a WR drafted #8 in the NFL drops like that these days).

2023 the hype had set in Bijan at #11, AR at #13, BY at #18 and Stroud at #23. JSN at overall #45 had a higher start-up ADP than JaMarr Chase had as a rookie.

I'm not saying this shift is right or wrong. But I do think it's a highly noteworthy change in our game. It's more or less inarguable that top tier rookies are valued much higher today than just a few years ago. It's trends like this that savvy dynasty managers use to capture value.

It would be interesting to see statistics for the number of dynasty leagues active in each of the past 10 years or so. Also, the percentages dynasty leagues to the total number of all leagues over the past decade.

It could be that as dynasty's popularity grows, the newbies have a tendency to overvalue the "longer term" rostering of the 4th rookie WR over 3-4 more years of a 26 year old WR16 in his prime. A lot of these rookie valuations seem to focus only on the best-case-scenario for a rookie, and downplay the possibility that a rookie will end up with a more average career. 4 more years of DKM is obviously more valuable than 8 years of Jeudy/PCampbell/Bateman. I think the risk of a 1st round fantasy pick not being a top tier stud is not baked into the current valuations.

Also, something I've noticed from being a redraft commissioner for 20+ years is how much younger newbies value rookies. In my long-standing dynasty leagues, younger managers (age 20-25) seem to be more willing to draft rookies than older fantasy managers (age 40+). The youngest managers in my redraft leagues have been drafting rookies very high for the last four or five years. I wonder if that tendency carries over to dynasty managers in their early 20s? This is more anecdotal than hard statistics, but I'd love to see a survey that takes managers' ages into account.

Rookie fever can affect managers of all ages and experience, but it would be interesting to see surveys broken down by age and experience.

There is a ton of solid advice/expert advice here from both Staff and The Eater of Ants. As a joke, us “older” owners want to win now. . Young guys love their generation. Over the years, I have seen a shift of what is considered over the hill by position. Abandon this or that player now, that is really in the peak of their career. That’s why we have them right?

[wickerkat1212]

Daniels or Maye, who do you like?

If Daniels WAS and Maye NEP, Daniels, right?
If Maye WAS and Daniels NEP, is it Maye?
Or do you like one better no matter what?

[tstafford]

Daniels or Maye, who do you like?

If Daniels WAS and Maye NEP, Daniels, right?
If Maye WAS and Daniels NEP, is it Maye?
Or do you like one better no matter what?

I'm still not convinced that NEP is such a horrible landing spot. Things change quickly in the NFL, the coaching staff is entirely different - particularly the OC. But dynasty has become a "what have you done for me lately" game w/ rookies. I'd prefer to take Daniels but I suppose it's silly to ignore landing spot.

If it does work out that Maye goes to NEP, I think the next question is him or Odunze at 1.05. That's a really tough one. But more and more I think the right call is usually going to be Maye.