Sleeper has this feature now. I used it last year just out of curiosity (though I didn't really follow up on how accurate it was at the end of the year). It was fairly accurate though if I remember correctly. I'm sure it's using similar calculations that Schritters lists aboveShcritters wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 4:19 pmEvery year in the preseason I create a spreadsheet and pull up predicted points for each anticipated starter on each roster. I then add up the points and rank the teams. With this strategy I’ve been able to predict pretty well… have regularly gotten a top 3 pick from one team the last 3 years.Jrblaha wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:35 pm I’m seeing a lot of posts where people are saying early, mid, late 2025 or even two years out (2026).
For the sake of this post we’ll define predicting good as getting the right tier (early, mid, late) over 50% of the time. We can adjust that later if needed, but seems like we need a starting point if we’re gonna discus doing this “good.”
Are there people out there guessing correctly the majority of the time with decent sample sizes? (year after year after year etc).
My longest league has been around maybe 10 years and I’ve predicted the correct champ like once. Sometimes they don’t even make the playoffs. There’s so many factors that go into how a team does, injuries, trades, facing high/low scoring teams, etc. The team that won it all for us this year, was predicted by myself and the team owner to be a non-playoff team.
My league is a classic 12 team league, division winners and then two best make the playoffs, byes for best two divisional winners, one game elimination playoff games. I get different setups possibly changing likelihood of predicting standings.
Outside of noticing an older team, with injury concerns, and lack of depth and draft capital to make changes, my predictions is off bad enough I’m not comfortable projecting beyond simply playoffs or not-playoffs, and even then, I’m not confident.
Anyone out there with factors that seem to give them good probability predicting final standings (and draft placement)?
KTC team ranker isn’t very reliable… they are more about total dynasty value rather than a one-year window.
Yes, it can be unpredictable, but I’d say I am able to guess early/mid/late a year in advance >50% of the time. But in that league it is pretty clear which teams are competing, which are rebuilding, and which are in the middle.
2 years out… different story. Good luck with that unless you have absolute killer or bottomed out teams.
It links to FantasyPros and gives you your league's power rankings for the current week, current year, and dynasty value.
Sometimes luck just derails any system you have though (in either direction).
I had a (keeper) team that had an extra 1st (ARSB) and was ranked the highest in power rankings all year. The team started 0-7. My friend won a (dynasty) championship last year with a team that featured Bailey Zappe in his SF position (out of necessity, not because he thought Zappe might be a good play).
I think killer_of_giants summed it up well - buy supposedly late 1sts at late 1st prices.
Hell, maybe actively pursue the cockiest manager in your league's 1st