Too Much or Worth It for 1.06

[Bay City Original]

Thanks for all the opinions so far. I agree with most of what everyone on both sides says. I know, from the value perspective, I'm giving up "more." The bottom line is what my threshold for gambling is.

There's the gamble on my team... If I'm a playoff team, the deal (in a vacuum) is a win. If I miss the playoffs, the deal will be a loss. But even with that, everything will be moot if I make the move, and the player I get at 6 is a stud... the other gamble.

The one thing I did do, as a result of all the opinions, was go back to let the owner know that I'm holding firm on getting back 2025 2nd. So the deal would be 1.06 + 2025 2nd for 1.12 + my 2025 1st + Conner, which was the initial counter that he waivered on before we went down the negotiation rabbit hole.

[Bay City Original]

I'd take the deal in a SF league. This is cheap to me. Conner may take a hit to value and late firsts are overvalued in my opinion. Your 2025 first is not a random first, it's likely late. Your team could use both a young QB or wr which is what you will get at 1.06. no clue what you are gonna get at 1.12 but right now I'm pretty sure I only have 10 players with a first round grade for fantasy. That number could go up or down after the NFL draft.

IMO, this is another reason *not* to make the trade. Let's say that there end up being 10 players you have with a 1st-round grade. It's almost never the exact same 10 players as everyone else in the league. There'd be a damn good chance one (or even two) would be available with the 12th pick.

And, as you noted, there's a chance more -- even 12 -- could end up with a first-round grade.

Of course, fewer could, as well. That would certainly make it tough for one to fall to 12, and having 1.06 would be nice. I wouldn't make this trade now, as I mentioned before, and certainly not until after the draft (and, yes, you do run the risk of it not being available then).

Not all first round grades are the same. 1.06 guarantees a first round graded pick, 1.12 does not. I also believe there will be a significant drop off at either 1.07 or 1.08 depending on McCarthy

This was my thought as well for trying to make the move up. While there are no guarantees, the top 6 seem to have a greater chance of being impactful than who I might get at 12. I've tried with those holding the 7th and 8th picks and they are not willing to move.

[moishetreats]

Thanks for all the opinions so far. I agree with most of what everyone on both sides says. I know, from the value perspective, I'm giving up "more." The bottom line is what my threshold for gambling is.

There's the gamble on my team... If I'm a playoff team, the deal (in a vacuum) is a win. If I miss the playoffs, the deal will be a loss. But even with that, everything will be moot if I make the move, and the player I get at 6 is a stud... the other gamble.

The one thing I did do, as a result of all the opinions, was go back to let the owner know that I'm holding firm on getting back 2025 2nd. So the deal would be 1.06 + 2025 2nd for 1.12 + my 2025 1st + Conner, which was the initial counter that he waivered on before we went down the negotiation rabbit hole.

Makes sense.

I'll add one other consideration: As a contender, having your 2025 1st available is HUGE. You might need to plug a hole in-season, and that's the best way to do it.

[wickerkat1212]

In Superflex you want to be in the top eight for sure. 1.12 + 2025 1st feels fair. Conner seems like a lot. But you have the depth. I initially thought it was too much, but with your RB depth and the 1.01 I think giving up two late 1sts + Conner seems like a good deal. You want to get into the top six.

I also have the 1.02 and 1.06 in a SF TEP (2 total PPR) league and I'm hoping to come away with Harrison/Williams at 1.02 and Bowers at 1.06. You're probably looking at Harrison and JJM/Bowers/Odunze.

[BabyChark23]

Conner will almost certainly get competition in the draft given his injury history and looking at the Cardinals having 3 third round picks this year, in addition to 1.04, 1.27, and an early 2nd. After they plug the more glaring holes with their first 3 picks. I’m betting they draft someone in round 3.

[Bay City Original]

Conner will almost certainly get competition in the draft given his injury history and looking at the Cardinals having 3 third round picks this year, in addition to 1.04, 1.27, and an early 2nd. After they plug the more glaring holes with their first 3 picks. I’m betting they draft someone in round 3.

While he will still have some value, I agree with you about Conner. That's why I was willing to add him to a deal as a "sweetener" who's value is probably at its peak at this time.

[TheTroll]

Conner will almost certainly get competition in the draft given his injury history and looking at the Cardinals having 3 third round picks this year, in addition to 1.04, 1.27, and an early 2nd. After they plug the more glaring holes with their first 3 picks. I’m betting they draft someone in round 3.

While he will still have some value, I agree with you about Conner. That's why I was willing to add him to a deal as a "sweetener" who's value is probably at its peak at this time.

Agreed and Connor’s big competition is the blue medical tent first and foremost.

[kellysheroes]

I have 1.06 and 1.12 pus next yr isn't enough... the talent drop is too steep. You gotta throw in a mid player (better than Connor) or the 2.12

[Black Adam]

I have 1.06 and 1.12 pus next yr isn't enough... the talent drop is too steep. You gotta throw in a mid player (better than Connor) or the 2.12

Agreed.