Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Bronco Billy]

I'm with Murph here.

Keenan Allen has played one full season out of his last four, and is 31 years old with a long history of soft-tissue injuries.

If Odunze landed in Chicago, I wouldn't be worried in the slightest, and I would enjoy buying any available dip.

The JSN comparison doesn't really hold water, for the simple fact: that Odunze is a far better prospect than JSN.

And I believe that will be proven out by Draft Capital in a month's time.

Bolded part is right. However if we rewound to draft time last year a significant portion of the FF community more or less ignored that JSN went in the 20's in the draft. For whatever reason that didn't seem to get integrated in to their assessment of JSN.

FWIW - My point is not about ]SN or Odunze but more that FF has become less patient as a whole. Immediate production at WR and TE is now the expectation.

Agreed, which is why even though Murph could be right for by end of the year, I think even in that scenario there’s a mid-year buy low opportunity for any of those 3 in Chicago (before they take over KA) for some impatient owners.

I must play in a league very different from a lot of the others here. If one of our owners burns a top 4/5 pick on a player they are not going to offer fire sale prices midseason of their rookie year regardless of how their year is going at that point. It’s going to require an overpay, sometimes a substantial one.

[BabyChark23]

Bolded part is right. However if we rewound to draft time last year a significant portion of the FF community more or less ignored that JSN went in the 20's in the draft. For whatever reason that didn't seem to get integrated in to their assessment of JSN.

FWIW - My point is not about ]SN or Odunze but more that FF has become less patient as a whole. Immediate production at WR and TE is now the expectation.

Agreed, which is why even though Murph could be right for by end of the year, I think even in that scenario there’s a mid-year buy low opportunity for any of those 3 in Chicago (before they take over KA) for some impatient owners.

I must play in a league very different from a lot of the others here. If one of our owners burns a top 4/5 pick on a player they are not going to offer fire sale prices midseason of their rookie year regardless of how their year is going at that point. It’s going to require an overpay, sometimes a substantial one.

Yeah, I offered one owner Nico for JSN a few weeks into the season with the slow start. I thought Nico’s production was unsustainable and he would turn back into a pumpkin. He declined. So glad he did.

[Jrblaha]

Bolded part is right. However if we rewound to draft time last year a significant portion of the FF community more or less ignored that JSN went in the 20's in the draft. For whatever reason that didn't seem to get integrated in to their assessment of JSN.

FWIW - My point is not about ]SN or Odunze but more that FF has become less patient as a whole. Immediate production at WR and TE is now the expectation.

Agreed, which is why even though Murph could be right for by end of the year, I think even in that scenario there’s a mid-year buy low opportunity for any of those 3 in Chicago (before they take over KA) for some impatient owners.

I must play in a league very different from a lot of the others here. If one of our owners burns a top 4/5 pick on a player they are not going to offer fire sale prices midseason of their rookie year regardless of how their year is going at that point. It’s going to require an overpay, sometimes a substantial one.

Depends on the league for me, I’m only in 3 but one has a few people are willing to throw people around quickly if they aren’t producing. Sometimes it works out for them, sometimes it doesn’t. I’d agree though, that in general, someone buys the Chicago rookie WR3, they won’t ship him out for a slow start. Def will happen in some leagues tho

[Jigga94]

Bolded part is right. However if we rewound to draft time last year a significant portion of the FF community more or less ignored that JSN went in the 20's in the draft. For whatever reason that didn't seem to get integrated in to their assessment of JSN.

FWIW - My point is not about ]SN or Odunze but more that FF has become less patient as a whole. Immediate production at WR and TE is now the expectation.

Agreed, which is why even though Murph could be right for by end of the year, I think even in that scenario there’s a mid-year buy low opportunity for any of those 3 in Chicago (before they take over KA) for some impatient owners.

I must play in a league very different from a lot of the others here. If one of our owners burns a top 4/5 pick on a player they are not going to offer fire sale prices midseason of their rookie year regardless of how their year is going at that point. It’s going to require an overpay, sometimes a substantial one.

My same thought

[DJB]

Everyone see the Keon Coleman reception perception chart? Matches what I see in film and what I’ve been saying for months


Hes a walking red flag

[YouMightDieTryin]

Everyone see the Keon Coleman reception perception chart? Matches what I see in film and what I’ve been saying for months


Hes a walking red flag

So he stands out?

[Hankybro21]

I've taken an extended break this off-season and haven't paid as much attention to this class as I usually do. I've got about 4 months of podcasts to catch up on!

Anyway, I'm sitting on 1.02 and 1.04 in Team 2 league. It's a 10tm SF. Leaguemate has 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05. He plans to take MHJ 1.01 and Nabers 1.03, then QB at 1.05. I'd take Caleb 1.02 (or trade it) and then Odunze 1.04 (or trade it for a WR).

My main question here is, how close are Nabers and Odunze to one another and is that difference greater than the difference between Caleb and QB2 (Daniels, probably). From my brief catching up, I see that MHJ and Nabers are quite close in the community's eye, but Odunze lags a bit behind.

[wickerkat1212]

I've taken an extended break this off-season and haven't paid as much attention to this class as I usually do. I've got about 4 months of podcasts to catch up on!

Anyway, I'm sitting on 1.02 and 1.04 in Team 2 league. It's a 10tm SF. Leaguemate has 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05. He plans to take MHJ 1.01 and Nabers 1.03, then QB at 1.05. I'd take Caleb 1.02 (or trade it) and then Odunze 1.04 (or trade it for a WR).

My main question here is, how close are Nabers and Odunze to one another and is that difference greater than the difference between Caleb and QB2 (Daniels, probably). From my brief catching up, I see that MHJ and Nabers are quite close in the community's eye, but Odunze lags a bit behind.

That's a great question—Williams/Odunze or Nabers/Daniels. I think it's pretty even. It'll come down to landing spot. CW will be in Chicago, and oddly enough, so could Odunze. I need to see where Daniels (WAS?) and Nabers (LAC?) go.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I've taken an extended break this off-season and haven't paid as much attention to this class as I usually do. I've got about 4 months of podcasts to catch up on!

Anyway, I'm sitting on 1.02 and 1.04 in Team 2 league. It's a 10tm SF. Leaguemate has 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05. He plans to take MHJ 1.01 and Nabers 1.03, then QB at 1.05. I'd take Caleb 1.02 (or trade it) and then Odunze 1.04 (or trade it for a WR).

My main question here is, how close are Nabers and Odunze to one another and is that difference greater than the difference between Caleb and QB2 (Daniels, probably). From my brief catching up, I see that MHJ and Nabers are quite close in the community's eye, but Odunze lags a bit behind.

All depends on who you ask. Some have MHJr/Nabers 1A/1B with Odunze 3. Others have Odunze above both. So it's a preference thing. I'd sort them out by draft order and personal preference of landing spots.

As far as CW versus Daniels...the talent level is in favor of CW. Bears have pushed to put a (on paper) decent offense to give Williams a chance at success. But it is the Bears.

[Jigga94]

Everyone see the Keon Coleman reception perception chart? Matches what I see in film and what I’ve been saying for months


Hes a walking red flag

He's the guy I'm telling myself to stay away from. Let the guy watching highlights take him. I think a lot of people feel this way, but someone's gotta take him. I just wonder if he would drop far enough to me anywhere

[Jigga94]

I've taken an extended break this off-season and haven't paid as much attention to this class as I usually do. I've got about 4 months of podcasts to catch up on!

Anyway, I'm sitting on 1.02 and 1.04 in Team 2 league. It's a 10tm SF. Leaguemate has 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05. He plans to take MHJ 1.01 and Nabers 1.03, then QB at 1.05. I'd take Caleb 1.02 (or trade it) and then Odunze 1.04 (or trade it for a WR).

My main question here is, how close are Nabers and Odunze to one another and is that difference greater than the difference between Caleb and QB2 (Daniels, probably). From my brief catching up, I see that MHJ and Nabers are quite close in the community's eye, but Odunze lags a bit behind.

Personally, I wouldn't trade away much to go from Odunze to Nabers/MHJ. I like all 3 a lot

[Bronco Billy]

I've taken an extended break this off-season and haven't paid as much attention to this class as I usually do. I've got about 4 months of podcasts to catch up on!

Anyway, I'm sitting on 1.02 and 1.04 in Team 2 league. It's a 10tm SF. Leaguemate has 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05. He plans to take MHJ 1.01 and Nabers 1.03, then QB at 1.05. I'd take Caleb 1.02 (or trade it) and then Odunze 1.04 (or trade it for a WR).

My main question here is, how close are Nabers and Odunze to one another and is that difference greater than the difference between Caleb and QB2 (Daniels, probably). From my brief catching up, I see that MHJ and Nabers are quite close in the community's eye, but Odunze lags a bit behind.

That's a great question—Williams/Odunze or Nabers/Daniels. I think it's pretty even. It'll come down to landing spot. CW will be in Chicago, and oddly enough, so could Odunze. I need to see where Daniels (WAS?) and Nabers (LAC?) go.

I see Nabers as more situation dependent than MHJr and Odunze. Those 2 guys always find ways to get open because of their superior route running. MHJr manipulates the D so well while the ball is in the air and Odunze might be the best route technician I’ve seen. Once Nabers gets the ball he’s a terror, but he’s not as good getting open as the other 2 IMO.

[tstafford]

Just heard Waldman's take on MHJR for the first time. (RSP just came out and I haven't gotten to it yet). He's the lowest on him that I've come across. He said things like, "not generational", has trouble catching the ball at times, not the consensus WR1 in the class and compared him somewhat unfavorably to Josh Gordon as a physical talent. Maybe most damning - suggested MHJR might be all he's ever going to be already. That we are seeing him maxed out. If you want to hear it - listen to FFT Dynasty. (I think around the 29 minute mark). There's no way to listen to what he said and think he believes MHJR will join JJ/Chase as a top-3 dynasty WR.

Just one guy's POV but Waldman does the work. Can't entirely ignore him on this IMHO. Not sure how actionable it is. But it adds a little fuel to CW over MHJR and to the Nabers truthers.

[Anteaters]

To Tim's point, most were pretty high on JSN last season. Not saying to the extent of the top-3 in this year's class, but he was a top pick. Fast forward to 2024 and people are debating whether or not to hold or sell him for the 1.09 because they were disappointed with his rookie production (I think he's a buy for that price personally).

Just saying, if one of these guys performs below expectations, will the same thing happen to them heading into 2025?

Mostly, I think that's the way it works. Here's a quick example.

2020
https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/06/exp ... -football/
That link is a FantasyPros mock rookie draft following the NFL draft.
Top 6 WRs chosen in 1st rd, in order were Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Reagor, Jefferson, Pittman
Based on fantasy production, they finished the season Jeudy WR45, Lamb WR22, Ruggs WR94, Reagor WR89, Jefferson WR6, Pittman WR79
https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/05/fan ... -football/
Leading into 2021 season, they were ranked by FantasyPros as ... Jefferson WR3, Lamb WR7, Jeudy WR23, Pittman WR29, Reagor WR60, Ruggs WR117.

We can see how their first year production dramatically altered their value leading into their second seasons. Reagor and Ruggs (the 3rd and 4th rookie WRs drafted in the dynasty mock draft) had disappointing seasons and dropped way down the 2021 list. And honestly, except for the Jeudy/Pittman swap, things were pretty much in the correct order after the first year. Except it's a little surprising Jeudy maintained an overall valuation of dynasty WR23 going into his 2nd season. IN actuality, Jeudy put up decent stats ... he just looked lackluster doing it ... less than a 50% catch rate.

Fantasy managers who reset their valuations accordingly and made swift trades based on rookie production and re-ranking, got ahead of the game. Fantasy managers who held on to Jeudy being way more valuable than Jefferson & Lamb based on pre-rookie-draft values, lost out big time.

It would be interesting to see this done for other years. Like 2023 with Puka and Dell looking like maybe the two best rookie WRs. Or really, just any other year. Maybe later.

But based on this, I think that not only will 2024 rookie WRs with disappointing (compared to fellow rookies) rookie seasons slide, but they should slide. The biggest surprise to me is that JSN hasn't slid further. He's got that Jeudy-like velcro hold on his rookie value.

[tstafford]

But based on this, I think that not only will 2024 rookie WRs with disappointing (compared to fellow rookies) rookie seasons slide, but they should slide. The biggest surprise to me is that JSN hasn't slid further. He's got that Jeudy-like velcro hold on his rookie value.

He's slid pretty far. Preseason last year he peaked at an overall ADP of #17 and is now #44 in 1QB. He'll drop even further after the rookies land. You could argue that #44 is still too high, but regardless it's a big drop.