Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[wickerkat1212]

McConkey vs zone: 3.04 YPRR

vs. man: 2.27

Both are career numbers (2.54 overall for his entire career).

Yes, I think that is accurate. There are a ton of stats out there, YPRR (either single year, last year, or total college) is just one (and zone vs man as well). I've been following a guy on Twitter who is working on an index that take the top four most important traits—

Draft Capital—obviously, 1st round is important, the earlier the better, etc., on down to 2nd and 3rd.
YPRR—total college +2.5, best year +3
BOA—<age 20
Dominator—I think the mark is 30%+ as elite

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

Here's a player profile for you.

+ 3.05 YPRR overall in his last season in college
+ 3.85 YPRR vs. Press in his last two seasons
+ 3.25 YPRR vs. Zone
+ 31% College Dominator
+ 89th Percentile Breakout
+ Early Declare
+ 21 years old
+ 1st Round Draft Capital

Sounds like a player someone would draft right?

That's Quentin Johnston in 2022.

Johnston was a flawed prospect, but he still met a bunch of key production thresholds. The issue with him was mostly how he got his production, which exposed a style of play that's hard to translate to the NFL.

I just don't like retrofitting 1% outcomes like Puka and using it as a strategy to identify the next Unicorn. Johnston was a better prospect than Puka. His statistical profile wasn't really the concern, as much as it was the eye test and playing style.

The NFL has all the same information that we do and more. If a player like Puka is crushing stats like YPRR and production vs. zone, but still goes 5th round, 99 out of 100 times....that's a really telling sign.

Good points. And sometimes stat gods bust, while outlier rise. It's not an exact science. Some may have been out on QJ due to the "eye test" too. And he could still emerge. FF is all about having fun, so whatever means gets you there, provides the most entertainment, whether you enjoy crunching numbers or watching film, go for it. I'm not saying analytics is a magical pill. These stats on QJ are pretty wild though.

[wickerkat1212]

Yes, I think that is accurate. There are a ton of stats out there, YPRR (either single year, last year, or total college) is just one (and zone vs man as well). I've been following a guy on Twitter who is working on an index that take the top four most important traits—

Draft Capital—obviously, 1st round is important, the earlier the better, etc., on down to 2nd and 3rd.
YPRR—total college +2.5, best year +3
BOA—<age 20
Dominator—I think the mark is 30%+ as elite

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

Here's a player profile for you.

+ 3.05 YPRR overall in his last season in college
+ 3.85 YPRR vs. Press in his last two seasons
+ 3.25 YPRR vs. Zone
+ 31% College Dominator
+ 89th Percentile Breakout
+ Early Declare
+ 21 years old
+ 1st Round Draft Capital

Sounds like a player someone would draft right?

That's Quentin Johnston in 2022.

Johnston was a flawed prospect, but he still met a bunch of key production thresholds. The issue with him was mostly how he got his production, which exposed a style of play that's hard to translate to the NFL.

I just don't like retrofitting 1% outcomes like Puka and using it as a strategy to identify the next Unicorn. Johnston was a better prospect than Puka, who's simply having a worse outcome.

Yeah, good point. And I’ve also seen on Twitter (don’t know how accurate this was) that there are plenty of guys with a high yprr that ended up being busts. So it might be good to throw a dart on a player like that but it’s not really any kind of “sure thing”, if that makes sense

Sure. And YPRR is only one stat—that's why I included BOA, Dominator, and DC. Somewhere in there is some useful information. OR we can just trust the NFL and use DC. Or we can use our own eye tests. LOL. IDK. Have fun with it all.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, good point. And I’ve also seen on Twitter (don’t know how accurate this was) that there are plenty of guys with a high yprr that ended up being busts. So it might be good to throw a dart on a player like that but it’s not really any kind of “sure thing”, if that makes sense

Exactly. It's not as simple as drafting someone with great YPRR, even though it's not a terrible approach late in your rookie drafts.

The NFL has the same information we do, except they have a lot more of it. If they see those statistics and still take him in the 5th round, then usually that's a lot more foreshadowing of what's going to happen.

You should want to draft a player who hits most of the metrics Johnston hit. You just want that player's film to match it.

[wickerkat1212]

Yeah, good point. And I’ve also seen on Twitter (don’t know how accurate this was) that there are plenty of guys with a high yprr that ended up being busts. So it might be good to throw a dart on a player like that but it’s not really any kind of “sure thing”, if that makes sense

Exactly. It's not as simple as drafting someone with great YPRR, even though it's not a terrible approach late in your rookie drafts.

The NFL has the same information we do, except they have a lot more of it. If they see those statistics and still take him in the 5th round, then usually that's a lot more foreshadowing of what's going to happen.

You should want to draft a player who hits most of the metrics Johnston hit. You just want that player's film to match it.

Exactly.

[81-]

McConkey vs zone: 3.04 YPRR

vs. man: 2.27

Both are career numbers (2.54 overall for his entire career).

Yes, I think that is accurate. There are a ton of stats out there, YPRR (either single year, last year, or total college) is just one (and zone vs man as well). I've been following a guy on Twitter who is working on an index that take the top four most important traits—

Draft Capital—obviously, 1st round is important, the earlier the better, etc., on down to 2nd and 3rd.
YPRR—total college +2.5, best year +3
BOA—<age 20
Dominator—I think the mark is 30%+ as elite

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

Here's a player profile for you.

+ 3.05 YPRR overall in his last season in college
+ 3.85 YPRR vs. Press in his last two seasons
+ 3.25 YPRR vs. Zone
+ 31% College Dominator
+ 89th Percentile Breakout
+ Early Declare
+ 21 years old
+ 1st Round Draft Capital

Sounds like a player someone would draft right?

That's Quentin Johnston in 2022.

Johnston was a flawed prospect, but he still met a bunch of key production thresholds. The issue with him was mostly how he got his production, which exposed a style of play that's hard to translate to the NFL.

I just don't like retrofitting 1% outcomes like Puka and using it as a strategy to identify the next Unicorn. Johnston was a better prospect than Puka. His statistical profile wasn't really the concern, as much as it was the eye test and playing style.

The NFL has all the same information that we do and more. If a player like Puka is crushing stats like YPRR and production vs. zone, but still goes 5th round, 99 out of 100 times....that's a really telling sign.

where is the hand/rock ratio? if there was a such a thing, QJ would be maximum value on the rock side.

[frerichs5]

Estime just improved his 40 to a 4.58

That sounds like some major proday help to me.

could be. if not tho, that's a better time on an assumably slower track

I’ve seen a couple different video analysis peg him at 4.65-4.68 for his pro day.

I too am on the side I will believe the combine time much more than pro day (but that doesn’t mean someone can’t have a bad day at the combine). More so just the pro day times seem to always be faster, never slower (that I can think of anyway; maybe I’m wrong here). There’s a reason a lot of places say to add .05 to pro day time.

[Cameron Giles]

Speed isn't everything, but I can't think of any RBs who are:

- Big
- Slow
- Don't play special teams

And still manage to be valuable fantasy producers.

There aren't many combine outcomes that represent doomsday, but running a 4.7 is one. RBs who've run a 40YD =<4.7 since 2014 (the field is much, much worse if you go back further)

- Tavion Thomas*
- Benny LeMay*
- Elijah Holyfield**
- Nick Brossette*
- Darrel Williams
- Kamryn Pettway*
- Devine Redding*
- Rushel Shell*
- Glenn Gronkowski
- Shadrach Thornton*
- Kenny Hilliard*
- Dee Hart*
- Jahwan Edwards*
- Josh Robinson (6th Round)
- James Wilder*
- Jerome Smith*
- Antonio Andrews
- Silas Redd
- David Fluellen
- Tim Flanders*
- Ka'Deem Carey (4th round)

* = Never played in the NFL
** = Played in the NFL, but never had an offensive snap

So, I guess Darrel Williams is your best case for drafting this type of player in the last 10 years. Estime's tape didn't look bad at all, but I'll let someone else take a shot with that.

[FantasyFreak]

Estime just improved his 40 to a 4.58

It's not a coincidence that every slow player "improves" their time at their pro day.

There's a reason Player Profiler adds .05 seconds to pro day times. It's a data based reality that pro day times (hand timed) are .05-0.08 seconds faster than if it was laser timed.

So his 4.58 is really in the 4.6's.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Speed isn't everything, but I can't think of any RBs who are:

- Big
- Slow
- Don't play special teams

And still manage to be valuable fantasy producers.

There aren't many combine outcomes that represent doomsday, but running a 4.7 is one. RBs who've run a 40YD =<4.7 since 2014 (the field is much, much worse if you go back further)

- Tavion Thomas*
- Benny LeMay*
- Elijah Holyfield**
- Nick Brossette*
- Darrel Williams
- Kamryn Pettway*
- Devine Redding*
- Rushel Shell*
- Glenn Gronkowski
- Shadrach Thornton*
- Kenny Hilliard*
- Dee Hart*
- Jahwan Edwards*
- Josh Robinson (6th Round)
- James Wilder*
- Jerome Smith*
- Antonio Andrews
- Silas Redd
- David Fluellen
- Tim Flanders*
- Ka'Deem Carey (4th round)

* = Never played in the NFL
** = Played in the NFL, but never had an offensive snap

So, I guess Darrel Williams is your best case for drafting this type of player in the last 10 years. Estime's tape didn't look bad at all, but I'll let someone else take a shot with that.

Yeah I’ve found the cutoff to be around 4.63-4.65 or so. Any worse than that and it’s a total long shot to relevancy

[Bronco Billy]

Estime just improved his 40 to a 4.58

It's not a coincidence that every slow player "improves" their time at their pro day.

There's a reason Player Profiler adds .05 seconds to pro day times. It's a data based reality that pro day times (hand timed) are .05-0.08 seconds faster than if it was laser timed.

So his 4.58 is really in the 4.6's.

And yet you watch his film and he looks faster than that in pads. When he gets into the third level you don’t see him getting tracked down from behind.

[FantasyFreak]

Speed isn't everything, but I can't think of any RBs who are:

- Big
- Slow
- Don't play special teams

And still manage to be valuable fantasy producers.

There aren't many combine outcomes that represent doomsday, but running a 4.7 is one. RBs who've run a 40YD =<4.7 since 2014 (the field is much, much worse if you go back further)

- Tavion Thomas*
- Benny LeMay*
- Elijah Holyfield**
- Nick Brossette*
- Darrel Williams
- Kamryn Pettway*
- Devine Redding*
- Rushel Shell*
- Glenn Gronkowski
- Shadrach Thornton*
- Kenny Hilliard*
- Dee Hart*
- Jahwan Edwards*
- Josh Robinson (6th Round)
- James Wilder*
- Jerome Smith*
- Antonio Andrews
- Silas Redd
- David Fluellen
- Tim Flanders*
- Ka'Deem Carey (4th round)

* = Never played in the NFL
** = Played in the NFL, but never had an offensive snap

So, I guess Darrel Williams is your best case for drafting this type of player in the last 10 years. Estime's tape didn't look bad at all, but I'll let someone else take a shot with that.

Yeah I’ve found the cutoff to be around 4.63-4.65 or so. Any worse than that and it’s a total long shot to relevancy

Video analysis by former DLF writer Jake Anderson suggests 4.68.

https://twitter.com/JakeAndersonPGA/sta ... 2254418324

It blows my mind that media and FF people don't understand that pro day hand times are basically fraudulent. It partly has to do with the time it takes the brain to see the movement of the player starting, process it, and send the message to your fingers to start the watch. Also t the finish. When all is said and done, the times are faster as a result. Player Profiler did extensive research on this.

[Bronco Billy]

Speed isn't everything, but I can't think of any RBs who are:

- Big
- Slow
- Don't play special teams

And still manage to be valuable fantasy producers.

There aren't many combine outcomes that represent doomsday, but running a 4.7 is one. RBs who've run a 40YD =<4.7 since 2014 (the field is much, much worse if you go back further)

- Tavion Thomas*
- Benny LeMay*
- Elijah Holyfield**
- Nick Brossette*
- Darrel Williams
- Kamryn Pettway*
- Devine Redding*
- Rushel Shell*
- Glenn Gronkowski
- Shadrach Thornton*
- Kenny Hilliard*
- Dee Hart*
- Jahwan Edwards*
- Josh Robinson (6th Round)
- James Wilder*
- Jerome Smith*
- Antonio Andrews
- Silas Redd
- David Fluellen
- Tim Flanders*
- Ka'Deem Carey (4th round)

* = Never played in the NFL
** = Played in the NFL, but never had an offensive snap

So, I guess Darrel Williams is your best case for drafting this type of player in the last 10 years. Estime's tape didn't look bad at all, but I'll let someone else take a shot with that.

Yeah I’ve found the cutoff to be around 4.63-4.65 or so. Any worse than that and it’s a total long shot to relevancy

Video analysis by former DLF writer Jake Anderson suggests 4.68.

https://twitter.com/JakeAndersonPGA/sta ... 2254418324

It blows my mind that media and FF people don't understand that pro day hand times are basically fraudulent. It partly has to do with the time it takes the brain to see the movement of the player starting, process it, and send the message to your fingers to start the watch. Also t the finish. When all is said and done, the times are faster as a result. Player Profiler did extensive research on this.

And yet how much of a difference between a laser timed 40 and a hand timed 40 by someone who knows what they’re doing is it going to make on a player’s performance on the field?

[Lumps]

Speed isn't everything, but I can't think of any RBs who are:

- Big
- Slow
- Don't play special teams

And still manage to be valuable fantasy producers.

There aren't many combine outcomes that represent doomsday, but running a 4.7 is one. RBs who've run a 40YD =<4.7 since 2014 (the field is much, much worse if you go back further)

- Tavion Thomas*
- Benny LeMay*
- Elijah Holyfield**
- Nick Brossette*
- Darrel Williams
- Kamryn Pettway*
- Devine Redding*
- Rushel Shell*
- Glenn Gronkowski
- Shadrach Thornton*
- Kenny Hilliard*
- Dee Hart*
- Jahwan Edwards*
- Josh Robinson (6th Round)
- James Wilder*
- Jerome Smith*
- Antonio Andrews
- Silas Redd
- David Fluellen
- Tim Flanders*
- Ka'Deem Carey (4th round)

* = Never played in the NFL
** = Played in the NFL, but never had an offensive snap

So, I guess Darrel Williams is your best case for drafting this type of player in the last 10 years. Estime's tape didn't look bad at all, but I'll let someone else take a shot with that.

Yeah I’ve found the cutoff to be around 4.63-4.65 or so. Any worse than that and it’s a total long shot to relevancy

Video analysis by former DLF writer Jake Anderson suggests 4.68.

https://twitter.com/JakeAndersonPGA/sta ... 2254418324

It blows my mind that media and FF people don't understand that pro day hand times are basically fraudulent. It partly has to do with the time it takes the brain to see the movement of the player starting, process it, and send the message to your fingers to start the watch. Also t the finish. When all is said and done, the times are faster as a result. Player Profiler did extensive research on this.

Media just needs a story. They don't care.

[wickerkat1212]

A few questions:

Who is your RB1 right now? I know might change post-draft. I'm seeing Benson, Brooks, Allen, etc.
Who is the TE2 right now? I'm seeing a few names—Sanders most often.
Who is your QB5, and will they be a viable starting QB? I'm assuming Penix or Nix here.

[BabyChark23]

A few questions:

Who is your RB1 right now? I know might change post-draft. I'm seeing Benson, Brooks, Allen, etc.

Brooks, Benson, Lloyd, and Wright are all basically interchangeable for me. The order all depends on landing spot and DC.