Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Hottoddies]

Lately leaning Ladd

I’ve seen a lot of Ladd hype. I don’t follow cfb, so I’m wondering, if he’s so good, why was he in college for 4 years and why wasn’t his production all that great?

I'm having trouble remembering the last Georgia WR with good raw production.

That said, McConkey does check some nice boxes statistically that should translate. Cashed a lot of first downs in that offense, feasted on zone, and his separation statistics match the skill on tape. Still a tough projection though to bet against things like breakout, YPTT, and age adjusted production numbers. But, he just looks the part whenever you watch games.

Do you remember a guy named George Pickens?

[Cameron Giles]

I’ve seen a lot of Ladd hype. I don’t follow cfb, so I’m wondering, if he’s so good, why was he in college for 4 years and why wasn’t his production all that great?

I'm having trouble remembering the last Georgia WR with good raw production.

That said, McConkey does check some nice boxes statistically that should translate. Cashed a lot of first downs in that offense, feasted on zone, and his separation statistics match the skill on tape. Still a tough projection though to bet against things like breakout, YPTT, and age adjusted production numbers. But, he just looks the part whenever you watch games.

Do you remember a guy named George Pickens?

His best season was 727 yards

[Bronco Billy]

Wait, which set of numbers are you selling here, because some of these results are extremely different.

[trc]

@Bronco

Wild guess is that the table is overall, and the chart is only vs. zone.

[Bronco Billy]

@Bronco

Wild guess is that the table is overall, and the chart is only vs. zone.

I considered that, but some of those numbers are so diverse that it would indicate that a lot of college teams overwhelmingly play man coverage and I don’t believe that is accurate. I know the NFL is zone heavy, playing it on average 2/3rds of the time in coverage schemes.

[Cameron Giles]

McConkey vs zone: 3.04 YPRR

vs. man: 2.27

Both are career numbers (2.54 overall for his entire career).

[wickerkat1212]

McConkey vs zone: 3.04 YPRR

vs. man: 2.27

Both are career numbers (2.54 overall for his entire career).

Yes, I think that is accurate. There are a ton of stats out there, YPRR (either single year, last year, or total college) is just one (and zone vs man as well). I've been following a guy on Twitter who is working on an index that take the top four most important traits—

Draft Capital—obviously, 1st round is important, the earlier the better, etc., on down to 2nd and 3rd.
YPRR—total college +2.5, best year +3
BOA—<age 20
Dominator—I think the mark is 30%+ as elite

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

[wickerkat1212]

For example, here are two lists:

2024 WR Class - YPRR Leaders

2.98 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
2.83 - Malik Nabers
2.63 - Troy Franklin
2.55 - Jacob Cowing
2.54 - Ladd McConkey
2.52 - Jamari Thrash
2.52 - Devontez Walker
2.52 - Johnny Wilson
2.50 - Javon Baker
2.50 - Rome Odunze

2024 WR Class Highest Single Season YPRR

3.8 - Jacob Cowing
3.6 - Malik Nabers
3.4 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
3.4 - Troy Franklin
3.2 - Javon Baker
3.2 - Malik Washington
3.2 - Xavier Legette
2.9 - Jamari Thrash
2.9 - Rome Odunze

So what do these numbers do for me? A few things—
• confirms what I think about guys like Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze
• helps show outliers, like Cowing, Thrash, Walker, Baker, etc.
• and raise red flags on guys that are LOW in the rankings, like Mitchell

FWIW. If you have to pick one thing, DC is the best, since these teams are likely crunching all of this data as well.

Some of this stuff is to help me differentiate between two guys I may like, say, at the 2.04 mark—where do they excel, what are the red flags. Of course there will be those that defy the stats. But Puka? He was a guy on the YPRR chart that LEAPED off the page.

[Lumps]

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

While this is true, watching QJ play would have shown you his alligator arms. I’ve never seen a big guy play as small as him. Then he wasn’t as tall as his listed college height either.

[wickerkat1212]

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

While this is true, watching QJ play would have shown you his alligator arms. I’ve never seen a big guy play as small as him. Then he wasn’t as tall as his listed college height either.

LOL true. I don't get to watch a ton of college ball, and highlight reels just focus on the...highlights, so LOL I've found that stats can be a part of the analysis. Whatever edge I can find. This is my first year REALLY crunching the numbers. DC in the past, sure, but YPRR, that's relatively new to me. BOA was something I'd hear about, DOM as well, but together these seem to work towards a nice index. We'll see.

[yinzername]

Estime just improved his 40 to a 4.58

[AZK]

Estime just improved his 40 to a 4.58

That sounds like some major proday help to me.

[yinzername]

Estime just improved his 40 to a 4.58

That sounds like some major proday help to me.

could be. if not tho, that's a better time on an assumably slower track

[Cameron Giles]

McConkey vs zone: 3.04 YPRR

vs. man: 2.27

Both are career numbers (2.54 overall for his entire career).

Yes, I think that is accurate. There are a ton of stats out there, YPRR (either single year, last year, or total college) is just one (and zone vs man as well). I've been following a guy on Twitter who is working on an index that take the top four most important traits—

Draft Capital—obviously, 1st round is important, the earlier the better, etc., on down to 2nd and 3rd.
YPRR—total college +2.5, best year +3
BOA—<age 20
Dominator—I think the mark is 30%+ as elite

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

Here's a player profile for you.

+ 3.05 YPRR overall in his last season in college
+ 3.85 YPRR vs. Press in his last two seasons
+ 3.25 YPRR vs. Zone
+ 31% College Dominator
+ 89th Percentile Breakout
+ Early Declare
+ 21 years old
+ 1st Round Draft Capital

Sounds like a player someone would draft right?

That's Quentin Johnston in 2022.

Johnston was a flawed prospect, but he still met a bunch of key production thresholds. The issue with him was mostly how he got his production, which exposed a style of play that's hard to translate to the NFL.

I just don't like retrofitting 1% outcomes like Puka and using it as a strategy to identify the next Unicorn. Johnston was a better prospect than Puka. His statistical profile wasn't really the concern, as much as it was the eye test and playing style.

The NFL has all the same information that we do and more. If a player like Puka is crushing stats like YPRR and production vs. zone, but still goes 5th round, 99 out of 100 times....that's a really telling sign.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

McConkey vs zone: 3.04 YPRR

vs. man: 2.27

Both are career numbers (2.54 overall for his entire career).

Yes, I think that is accurate. There are a ton of stats out there, YPRR (either single year, last year, or total college) is just one (and zone vs man as well). I've been following a guy on Twitter who is working on an index that take the top four most important traits—

Draft Capital—obviously, 1st round is important, the earlier the better, etc., on down to 2nd and 3rd.
YPRR—total college +2.5, best year +3
BOA—<age 20
Dominator—I think the mark is 30%+ as elite

I'm still learning about analytics, but some of this can help find a Puka vs a QJ.

Here's a player profile for you.

+ 3.05 YPRR overall in his last season in college
+ 3.85 YPRR vs. Press in his last two seasons
+ 3.25 YPRR vs. Zone
+ 31% College Dominator
+ 89th Percentile Breakout
+ Early Declare
+ 21 years old
+ 1st Round Draft Capital

Sounds like a player someone would draft right?

That's Quentin Johnston in 2022.

Johnston was a flawed prospect, but he still met a bunch of key production thresholds. The issue with him was mostly how he got his production, which exposed a style of play that's hard to translate to the NFL.

I just don't like retrofitting 1% outcomes like Puka and using it as a strategy to identify the next Unicorn. Johnston was a better prospect than Puka, who's simply having a worse outcome.

Yeah, good point. And I’ve also seen on Twitter (don’t know how accurate this was) that there are plenty of guys with a high yprr that ended up being busts. So it might be good to throw a dart on a player like that but it’s not really any kind of “sure thing”, if that makes sense