Target Tank Dell? Value?

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Jrblaha
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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:39 am

And my reason for Tanks future success is not because I feel like it, it’s because he did it and feels sustainable to me, what was WR was he ranked for ppg? His actual nfl game data to me looks great, even get rid of some tds and add some more catches and yards. His QB will be the same. I prefer that data to college data that doesn’t always translate.

Again, I’m really curious what 10 WRs in this class you’re rolling tank for. I could be wrong and tank could flatline, but there’s surely data, by him in the nfl (and college) to suggest he can continue to be successful.

Lots of data suggests many rookie WRs don’t peak their rookie year.
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:44 am

Have y’all been mockin’? There are definitely at least 10 prospects worth Dell’s value. In 1QB even if you don’t count the QB 2 and 3 in this class, IMO you’re looking at a top 10 that includes…

1. MHJ WR1
2. Nabors WR2
3. Odunze WR3
4. Bowers TE1
5. Brian Thomas WR4
6. Troy Franklin WR5
7. AD Mitchell WR6
8. Trey Benson RB1
9. C Williams QB1
10. X Worthy/L Mconkney/K Coleman/RB2/RB3

The options at 10, particularly at WR could still be in the round 1 of NFL draft, early round 2 at the latest. Most of the group of WRs are potentially capable of producing like an alpha.

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:50 am

SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:44 am Have y’all been mockin’? There are definitely at least 10 prospects worth Dell’s value. In 1QB even if you don’t count the QB 2 and 3 in this class, IMO you’re looking at a top 10 that includes…

1. MHJ WR1
2. Nabors WR2
3. Odunze WR3
4. Bowers TE1
5. Brian Thomas WR4
6. Troy Franklin WR5
7. AD Mitchell WR6
8. Trey Benson RB1
9. C Williams QB1
10. X Worthy/L Mconkney/K Coleman/RB2/RB3

The options at 10, particularly at WR could still be in the round 1 of NFL draft, early round 2 at the latest. Most of the group of WRs are potentially capable of producing like an alpha.
Potentially capable. Sure, anything is possible, but why would it be likely? You’d really trade Tank for one of those guys listed at 10? I haven’t seen any mocks of RBs going round 1, or early 2nd this year.

Also Worthy’s BMI is also under 24.

Pigeon, DSmith is an example of success with a lower bmi than Tank.

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 10:11 am

Pigeon, you’ve got 10 WRs > Tank, I’ve only got 3. So let me know your 7 WRs after MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze, and we’ll see if at least 4/7 have a better season than Tank.
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Wed Mar 20, 2024 10:26 am

Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:50 am
SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:44 am Have y’all been mockin’? There are definitely at least 10 prospects worth Dell’s value. In 1QB even if you don’t count the QB 2 and 3 in this class, IMO you’re looking at a top 10 that includes…

1. MHJ WR1
2. Nabors WR2
3. Odunze WR3
4. Bowers TE1
5. Brian Thomas WR4
6. Troy Franklin WR5
7. AD Mitchell WR6
8. Trey Benson RB1
9. C Williams QB1
10. X Worthy/L Mconkney/K Coleman/RB2/RB3

The options at 10, particularly at WR could still be in the round 1 of NFL draft, early round 2 at the latest. Most of the group of WRs are potentially capable of producing like an alpha.
Potentially capable. Sure, anything is possible, but why would it be likely? You’d really trade Tank for one of those guys listed at 10? I haven’t seen any mocks of RBs going round 1, or early 2nd this year.

Also Worthy’s BMI is also under 24.

Pigeon, DSmith is an example of success with a lower bmi than Tank.
Ya, you can probably remove Worthy from this list. TY

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby PigeonBoys » Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:33 am

SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:44 am Have y’all been mockin’? There are definitely at least 10 prospects worth Dell’s value. In 1QB even if you don’t count the QB 2 and 3 in this class, IMO you’re looking at a top 10 that includes…

1. MHJ WR1
2. Nabors WR2
3. Odunze WR3
4. Bowers TE1
5. Brian Thomas WR4
6. Troy Franklin WR5
7. AD Mitchell WR6
8. Trey Benson RB1
9. C Williams QB1
10. X Worthy/L Mconkney/K Coleman/RB2/RB3

The options at 10, particularly at WR could still be in the round 1 of NFL draft, early round 2 at the latest. Most of the group of WRs are potentially capable of producing like an alpha.
This. Obviously depends on landing spots will affect things but I'd take Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas Jr, Franklin, McConkey, AD Mitchell, Coleman, and then from there really depends on landing spot. I agree on Worthy, he will be overdrafted in real life and in fantasy because of his 40 time. Have we learned nothing from John Ross?? Anyway, those are the guys I'm hearing that will go in the first two rounds and all of them I've seen in first round mocks so who knows at this point. But what I do know is that I do not believe in the long term success of Tank Dell based on the years of data we have that tells us so.

DSmith is the closest I could find and yes WR's are getting smaller that is indisputable but even with that being fact Tank Dell is still an outlier. DSmith also plays predominantly on the outside at a 75% clip whereas Dell plays in the slot I believe around a 65% clip. Due to DSmith playing on the outside, he sees 90+% snap rate whereas Dell, when healthy, played on average 80% of snaps and only got over 90% one game. I'm not going to bet on the outlier succeeding, I'll bet against the outlier and be right more often than not, like I said I'm okay being wrong about Dell for that reason.
12 Team .5 PPR Dynasty Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1TE, 1 DEF, 1K

2018: 2nd 🥈
2019: Champs :dance: 🏆
2020: 2nd 🥈
2021: 2nd 🥈
2022: 2nd 🥈
2023: Champs :dance: 🏆

QB: L. Jackson, D.Prescott, K. Cousins
RB: S. Barkley, A. Kamara, A. Jones, K. Miller, J. Ford, D. Singletary, J. Williams
WR: J. Jefferson, A.St. Brown, DK Metcalf, M. Brown, N. Collins, C. Kirk, J. Smith-Schuster, C. Tillman
TE: D. Waller, D. Njoku, D. Goedert

Draft picks:
2024 - 1.12, 2.12, 3.05, 4.12
2025 - 1st (Other Owner), 2nd, 4th
2026 - 1st, 2nd (Other Owner)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:42 am

PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:33 am
SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:44 am Have y’all been mockin’? There are definitely at least 10 prospects worth Dell’s value. In 1QB even if you don’t count the QB 2 and 3 in this class, IMO you’re looking at a top 10 that includes…

1. MHJ WR1
2. Nabors WR2
3. Odunze WR3
4. Bowers TE1
5. Brian Thomas WR4
6. Troy Franklin WR5
7. AD Mitchell WR6
8. Trey Benson RB1
9. C Williams QB1
10. X Worthy/L Mconkney/K Coleman/RB2/RB3

The options at 10, particularly at WR could still be in the round 1 of NFL draft, early round 2 at the latest. Most of the group of WRs are potentially capable of producing like an alpha.
This. Obviously depends on landing spots will affect things but I'd take Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas Jr, Franklin, McConkey, AD Mitchell, Coleman, and then from there really depends on landing spot. I agree on Worthy, he will be overdrafted in real life and in fantasy because of his 40 time. Have we learned nothing from John Ross?? Anyway, those are the guys I'm hearing that will go in the first two rounds and all of them I've seen in first round mocks so who knows at this point. But what I do know is that I do not believe in the long term success of Tank Dell based on the years of data we have that tells us so.

DSmith is the closest I could find and yes WR's are getting smaller that is indisputable but even with that being fact Tank Dell is still an outlier. DSmith also plays predominantly on the outside at a 75% clip whereas Dell plays in the slot I believe around a 65% clip. Due to DSmith playing on the outside, he sees 90+% snap rate whereas Dell, when healthy, played on average 80% of snaps and only got over 90% one game. I'm not going to bet on the outlier succeeding, I'll bet against the outlier and be right more often than not, like I said I'm okay being wrong about Dell for that reason.
I’m completely okay being wrong about Dell the opposite way also, because I feel like picking a WR after the top 3 gives me more a chance of ending up with a worse WR than Dell. And I get your points of doubting him, but each Wr in this class after Odunze and maybe Thomas Jr, has little consensus and tons of flags and reasons to doubt them as well. And I get half a season isn’t a lot of data for Dell, but it’s more than 0 nfl seasons.

Doesn’t CD play in the slot a lot too though? I get he also plays more snaps outside and in general. But even if all tank is only a slot receiver (he’s more imo), that can still be money in PPR with a good QB. Sounds like you have 5 WRs (not including the top 3) > Tank, so let me know when you have your 2 others and we’ll see how it pans out.
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby PigeonBoys » Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:28 pm

Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:42 am
PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:33 am
SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:44 am Have y’all been mockin’? There are definitely at least 10 prospects worth Dell’s value. In 1QB even if you don’t count the QB 2 and 3 in this class, IMO you’re looking at a top 10 that includes…

1. MHJ WR1
2. Nabors WR2
3. Odunze WR3
4. Bowers TE1
5. Brian Thomas WR4
6. Troy Franklin WR5
7. AD Mitchell WR6
8. Trey Benson RB1
9. C Williams QB1
10. X Worthy/L Mconkney/K Coleman/RB2/RB3

The options at 10, particularly at WR could still be in the round 1 of NFL draft, early round 2 at the latest. Most of the group of WRs are potentially capable of producing like an alpha.
This. Obviously depends on landing spots will affect things but I'd take Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas Jr, Franklin, McConkey, AD Mitchell, Coleman, and then from there really depends on landing spot. I agree on Worthy, he will be overdrafted in real life and in fantasy because of his 40 time. Have we learned nothing from John Ross?? Anyway, those are the guys I'm hearing that will go in the first two rounds and all of them I've seen in first round mocks so who knows at this point. But what I do know is that I do not believe in the long term success of Tank Dell based on the years of data we have that tells us so.

DSmith is the closest I could find and yes WR's are getting smaller that is indisputable but even with that being fact Tank Dell is still an outlier. DSmith also plays predominantly on the outside at a 75% clip whereas Dell plays in the slot I believe around a 65% clip. Due to DSmith playing on the outside, he sees 90+% snap rate whereas Dell, when healthy, played on average 80% of snaps and only got over 90% one game. I'm not going to bet on the outlier succeeding, I'll bet against the outlier and be right more often than not, like I said I'm okay being wrong about Dell for that reason.
I’m completely okay being wrong about Dell the opposite way also, because I feel like picking a WR after the top 3 gives me more a chance of ending up with a worse WR than Dell.

Doesn’t CD play in the slot a lot too though? Slot receivers can be money in PPR. Sounds like you have 5 WRs (not including the top 3) > Tank, so let me know when you have your 2 others and we’ll see how it pans out.
First of all, sorry, I'm going to have to give you a hard time for this one. "And my reason for Tanks future success is not because I feel like it, it's because he did it and feels sustainable to me." You say you're rationale is not because you feel like and then say it's because you feel like it :wall:

I'm not hating on WR's that can play the slot, alot of successful WR's play the slot AND outside to maximize their abilities. According to player profiler, he ran 85% of his snaps from the slot his rookie year, but that dropped to 32%, 46%, and 51% thereafter.

I said that the rest depends on landing spot so there are many others like Legette, Pearsall, Tez Walker, and Corley that would be just as valuable in the right location. That's not even factoring in any other skill position players as others have mentioned.
12 Team .5 PPR Dynasty Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1TE, 1 DEF, 1K

2018: 2nd 🥈
2019: Champs :dance: 🏆
2020: 2nd 🥈
2021: 2nd 🥈
2022: 2nd 🥈
2023: Champs :dance: 🏆

QB: L. Jackson, D.Prescott, K. Cousins
RB: S. Barkley, A. Kamara, A. Jones, K. Miller, J. Ford, D. Singletary, J. Williams
WR: J. Jefferson, A.St. Brown, DK Metcalf, M. Brown, N. Collins, C. Kirk, J. Smith-Schuster, C. Tillman
TE: D. Waller, D. Njoku, D. Goedert

Draft picks:
2024 - 1.12, 2.12, 3.05, 4.12
2025 - 1st (Other Owner), 2nd, 4th
2026 - 1st, 2nd (Other Owner)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:34 pm

PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:28 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:42 am
PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:33 am

This. Obviously depends on landing spots will affect things but I'd take Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas Jr, Franklin, McConkey, AD Mitchell, Coleman, and then from there really depends on landing spot. I agree on Worthy, he will be overdrafted in real life and in fantasy because of his 40 time. Have we learned nothing from John Ross?? Anyway, those are the guys I'm hearing that will go in the first two rounds and all of them I've seen in first round mocks so who knows at this point. But what I do know is that I do not believe in the long term success of Tank Dell based on the years of data we have that tells us so.

DSmith is the closest I could find and yes WR's are getting smaller that is indisputable but even with that being fact Tank Dell is still an outlier. DSmith also plays predominantly on the outside at a 75% clip whereas Dell plays in the slot I believe around a 65% clip. Due to DSmith playing on the outside, he sees 90+% snap rate whereas Dell, when healthy, played on average 80% of snaps and only got over 90% one game. I'm not going to bet on the outlier succeeding, I'll bet against the outlier and be right more often than not, like I said I'm okay being wrong about Dell for that reason.
I’m completely okay being wrong about Dell the opposite way also, because I feel like picking a WR after the top 3 gives me more a chance of ending up with a worse WR than Dell.

Doesn’t CD play in the slot a lot too though? Slot receivers can be money in PPR. Sounds like you have 5 WRs (not including the top 3) > Tank, so let me know when you have your 2 others and we’ll see how it pans out.
First of all, sorry, I'm going to have to give you a hard time for this one. "And my reason for Tanks future success is not because I feel like it, it's because he did it and feels sustainable to me." You say you're rationale is not because you feel like and then say it's because you feel like it :wall:

I'm not hating on WR's that can play the slot, alot of successful WR's play the slot AND outside to maximize their abilities. According to player profiler, he ran 85% of his snaps from the slot his rookie year, but that dropped to 32%, 46%, and 51% thereafter.

I said that the rest depends on landing spot so there are many others like Legette, Pearsall, Tez Walker, and Corley that would be just as valuable in the right location. That's not even factoring in any other skill position players as others have mentioned.
I also gave other objective factual reasons, data, etc, to why his success “feels” sustainable to me. One of which is was even listed in that sentence (he did it). Sub out feels for a different word if you’d like, as I’m unsure how else to say I think something’s going to happen or continue to happen, while also providing a objective reality basis on such thought/feeling. Your opinion it won’t happen is based on xyz, and is also… just a feeling (yikes!). Feels like a weird thing to get stuck on :)

Why would we factor in other skill players when you said there are 10 rookie WRs you’d prefer over tank (or something like that). You don’t have to list the 10 now, just prior to the season starting and we’ll see how the 7 after the top 3 do compared to Tank. I’m wrong plenty, and have no issue admitting it when it happens. Neither of us actually knows who’s right yet
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby PigeonBoys » Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:46 pm

Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:34 pm
PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:28 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:42 am

I’m completely okay being wrong about Dell the opposite way also, because I feel like picking a WR after the top 3 gives me more a chance of ending up with a worse WR than Dell.

Doesn’t CD play in the slot a lot too though? Slot receivers can be money in PPR. Sounds like you have 5 WRs (not including the top 3) > Tank, so let me know when you have your 2 others and we’ll see how it pans out.
First of all, sorry, I'm going to have to give you a hard time for this one. "And my reason for Tanks future success is not because I feel like it, it's because he did it and feels sustainable to me." You say you're rationale is not because you feel like and then say it's because you feel like it :wall:

I'm not hating on WR's that can play the slot, alot of successful WR's play the slot AND outside to maximize their abilities. According to player profiler, he ran 85% of his snaps from the slot his rookie year, but that dropped to 32%, 46%, and 51% thereafter.

I said that the rest depends on landing spot so there are many others like Legette, Pearsall, Tez Walker, and Corley that would be just as valuable in the right location. That's not even factoring in any other skill position players as others have mentioned.
I also gave other objective factual reasons, data, etc, to why his success “feels” sustainable to me. One of which is was even listed in that sentence (he did it). Sub out feels for a different word if you’d like, as I’m unsure how else to say I think something’s going to happen or continue to happen, while also providing a objective reality basis on such thought/feeling. Your opinion it won’t happen is based on xyz, and is also… just a feeling (yikes!). Feels like a weird thing to get stuck on :)

Why would we factor in other skill players when you said there are 10 rookie WRs you’d prefer over tank (or something like that). You don’t have to list the 10 now, just prior to the season starting and we’ll see how the 7 after the top 3 do compared to Tank. I’m wrong plenty, and have no issue admitting it when it happens. Neither of us actually knows who’s right yet
Ummm, there's the problem, "doing it" for 8 games isn't doing it at all IMO. We have different definitions of "doing it." I want a guy to do it for the entire year, not half the year. Please cite your objective factual reasons because you have cited a lot of because I feel like it's sustainable type of stuff. Ok that's great you feel that way but back up your feeling with data and I'll listen. It's hard to follow your line of thinking because there's not a lot of logic provided, lots of words without substance. For the record feels isn't data or facts, I've used snap counts, BMI, size data, injury concerns, etc. to prove my point. That's not feels, that factual data :think:
12 Team .5 PPR Dynasty Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1TE, 1 DEF, 1K

2018: 2nd 🥈
2019: Champs :dance: 🏆
2020: 2nd 🥈
2021: 2nd 🥈
2022: 2nd 🥈
2023: Champs :dance: 🏆

QB: L. Jackson, D.Prescott, K. Cousins
RB: S. Barkley, A. Kamara, A. Jones, K. Miller, J. Ford, D. Singletary, J. Williams
WR: J. Jefferson, A.St. Brown, DK Metcalf, M. Brown, N. Collins, C. Kirk, J. Smith-Schuster, C. Tillman
TE: D. Waller, D. Njoku, D. Goedert

Draft picks:
2024 - 1.12, 2.12, 3.05, 4.12
2025 - 1st (Other Owner), 2nd, 4th
2026 - 1st, 2nd (Other Owner)

Jrblaha
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Pro Bowler
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Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:00 pm

Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:58 pm

PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:46 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:34 pm
PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:28 pm

First of all, sorry, I'm going to have to give you a hard time for this one. "And my reason for Tanks future success is not because I feel like it, it's because he did it and feels sustainable to me." You say you're rationale is not because you feel like and then say it's because you feel like it :wall:

I'm not hating on WR's that can play the slot, alot of successful WR's play the slot AND outside to maximize their abilities. According to player profiler, he ran 85% of his snaps from the slot his rookie year, but that dropped to 32%, 46%, and 51% thereafter.

I said that the rest depends on landing spot so there are many others like Legette, Pearsall, Tez Walker, and Corley that would be just as valuable in the right location. That's not even factoring in any other skill position players as others have mentioned.
I also gave other objective factual reasons, data, etc, to why his success “feels” sustainable to me. One of which is was even listed in that sentence (he did it). Sub out feels for a different word if you’d like, as I’m unsure how else to say I think something’s going to happen or continue to happen, while also providing a objective reality basis on such thought/feeling. Your opinion it won’t happen is based on xyz, and is also… just a feeling (yikes!). Feels like a weird thing to get stuck on :)

Why would we factor in other skill players when you said there are 10 rookie WRs you’d prefer over tank (or something like that). You don’t have to list the 10 now, just prior to the season starting and we’ll see how the 7 after the top 3 do compared to Tank. I’m wrong plenty, and have no issue admitting it when it happens. Neither of us actually knows who’s right yet
Ummm, there's the problem, "doing it" for 8 games isn't doing it at all IMO. We have different definitions of "doing it." I want a guy to do it for the entire year, not half the year. Please cite your objective factual reasons because you have cited a lot of because I feel like it's sustainable type of stuff. Ok that's great you feel that way but back up your feeling with data and I'll listen. It's hard to follow your line of thinking because there's not a lot of logic provided, lots of words without substance. For the record feels isn't data or facts, I've used snap counts, BMI, size data, injury concerns, etc. to prove my point. That's not feels, that factual data :think:
8 games isn’t a bad sample size, also it was 10 games not 8, and even 8 is far more data than 0 nfl games. Especially when combined with other data points I talked about:

His QB hasn’t changed and had a great rookie year. QBs often get better after their rookie years.

His WR room hasn’t changed. It’s still a 1A 1B situation with him and Nico. If they add a WR we can debate who that hurts more (and we’ll probably disagree), but as of now, CJs main targets are the same.

He was a top 12 WR in ppg as a rookie. WRs often get better after their rookie year, and last year he was a fantasy WR1 in ppg, as a rookie.

Also, Tank was getting more targets as the year went on. Weeks 1-8 averaged under 6 targets a game, and for his last 4 weeks (Weeks 9-12) he averaged over 10 targets a game. Cavet that Nico was out part of game 9 and missed game 10, but was there games 11 and 12, while Tank still amassed 10 targets (and his high in yards at 149) and 8 targets.

DSmith has been successful with a worse BMI.

I can get some more detailed numbers later if you need it, but these data points alone seem like a good enough reason to take him over the WR10 of this class.
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby PigeonBoys » Wed Mar 20, 2024 1:23 pm

Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:58 pm
PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:46 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:34 pm

I also gave other objective factual reasons, data, etc, to why his success “feels” sustainable to me. One of which is was even listed in that sentence (he did it). Sub out feels for a different word if you’d like, as I’m unsure how else to say I think something’s going to happen or continue to happen, while also providing a objective reality basis on such thought/feeling. Your opinion it won’t happen is based on xyz, and is also… just a feeling (yikes!). Feels like a weird thing to get stuck on :)

Why would we factor in other skill players when you said there are 10 rookie WRs you’d prefer over tank (or something like that). You don’t have to list the 10 now, just prior to the season starting and we’ll see how the 7 after the top 3 do compared to Tank. I’m wrong plenty, and have no issue admitting it when it happens. Neither of us actually knows who’s right yet
Ummm, there's the problem, "doing it" for 8 games isn't doing it at all IMO. We have different definitions of "doing it." I want a guy to do it for the entire year, not half the year. Please cite your objective factual reasons because you have cited a lot of because I feel like it's sustainable type of stuff. Ok that's great you feel that way but back up your feeling with data and I'll listen. It's hard to follow your line of thinking because there's not a lot of logic provided, lots of words without substance. For the record feels isn't data or facts, I've used snap counts, BMI, size data, injury concerns, etc. to prove my point. That's not feels, that factual data :think:
8 games isn’t a bad sample size, also it was 10 games not 8, and even 8 is far more data than 0 nfl games. Especially when combined with other data points I talked about:

His QB hasn’t changed and had a great rookie year. QBs often get better after their rookie years.

His WR room hasn’t changed. It’s still a 1A 1B situation with him and Nico. If they add a WR we can debate who that hurts more (and we’ll probably disagree), but as of now, CJs main targets are the same.

He was a top 12 WR in ppg as a rookie. WRs often get better after their rookie year, and last year he was a fantasy WR1 in ppg, as a rookie.

Also, Tank was getting more targets as the year went on. Weeks 1-8 averaged under 6 targets a game, and for his last 4 weeks (Weeks 9-12) he averaged over 10 targets a game. Cavet that Nico was out part of game 9 and missed game 10, but was there games 11 and 12, while Tank still amassed 10 targets (and his high in yards at 149) and 8 targets.

DSmith has been successful with a worse BMI.

I can get some more detailed numbers later if you need it, but these data points alone seem like a good enough reason to take him over the WR10 of this class.
If you say so. Good luck!
12 Team .5 PPR Dynasty Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1TE, 1 DEF, 1K

2018: 2nd 🥈
2019: Champs :dance: 🏆
2020: 2nd 🥈
2021: 2nd 🥈
2022: 2nd 🥈
2023: Champs :dance: 🏆

QB: L. Jackson, D.Prescott, K. Cousins
RB: S. Barkley, A. Kamara, A. Jones, K. Miller, J. Ford, D. Singletary, J. Williams
WR: J. Jefferson, A.St. Brown, DK Metcalf, M. Brown, N. Collins, C. Kirk, J. Smith-Schuster, C. Tillman
TE: D. Waller, D. Njoku, D. Goedert

Draft picks:
2024 - 1.12, 2.12, 3.05, 4.12
2025 - 1st (Other Owner), 2nd, 4th
2026 - 1st, 2nd (Other Owner)

Jrblaha
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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Mar 20, 2024 1:38 pm

PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 1:23 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:58 pm
PigeonBoys wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:46 pm

Ummm, there's the problem, "doing it" for 8 games isn't doing it at all IMO. We have different definitions of "doing it." I want a guy to do it for the entire year, not half the year. Please cite your objective factual reasons because you have cited a lot of because I feel like it's sustainable type of stuff. Ok that's great you feel that way but back up your feeling with data and I'll listen. It's hard to follow your line of thinking because there's not a lot of logic provided, lots of words without substance. For the record feels isn't data or facts, I've used snap counts, BMI, size data, injury concerns, etc. to prove my point. That's not feels, that factual data :think:
8 games isn’t a bad sample size, also it was 10 games not 8, and even 8 is far more data than 0 nfl games. Especially when combined with other data points I talked about:

His QB hasn’t changed and had a great rookie year. QBs often get better after their rookie years.

His WR room hasn’t changed. It’s still a 1A 1B situation with him and Nico. If they add a WR we can debate who that hurts more (and we’ll probably disagree), but as of now, CJs main targets are the same.

He was a top 12 WR in ppg as a rookie. WRs often get better after their rookie year, and last year he was a fantasy WR1 in ppg, as a rookie.

Also, Tank was getting more targets as the year went on. Weeks 1-8 averaged under 6 targets a game, and for his last 4 weeks (Weeks 9-12) he averaged over 10 targets a game. Cavet that Nico was out part of game 9 and missed game 10, but was there games 11 and 12, while Tank still amassed 10 targets (and his high in yards at 149) and 8 targets.

DSmith has been successful with a worse BMI.

I can get some more detailed numbers later if you need it, but these data points alone seem like a good enough reason to take him over the WR10 of this class.
If you say so. Good luck!
Interesting response after I provided/clarified more data, per your request. Holla prior to the season when you have your 10 Rookie WRs > Tank. Cheers
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Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Black Adam » Wed Mar 20, 2024 5:13 pm

SoftwoodGrampian wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 7:53 am I have a feeling most all of the Dell supporters are also owners. IMO half a season from a 165lb player is probably not an indication of what his numbers will normally look like year to year. Nico’s on a contract year and there’s no one else. Wouldn’t it be funny if the Texans draft early WR and Dell is the #3 on his own team.. very possible a month from now.
I agree. I sold high on Dell by trading the Stroud+Dell stack.

I agree 1.10 is too low but I wouldn't offer the 1.04 for him either, I'd rather have Bowers.
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2017: 8th 💩
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2023: 1st 🥇

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Re: Target Tank Dell? Value?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:31 pm

I see many confused as to why Dell is ranked so high. The reason he's ranked so high is he killed it in just about every metric that predicts future success. 1.04 is a great spot to value him at, but statistically speaking he should actually be more valuable than the 1.01.

viewtopic.php?p=2239072#p2239072




ROOKIE OPEN SCORE
Open score essentially measures how well a receiver gets open.

Over 70 Rookie Open Score since 2017
Diontae Johnson 91
Chris Olave 82
Tank Dell 81
AJ Brown 80
Justin Jefferson 78
G Wilson 77
Terry McLaurin 73
Christian Watson 73
Zay Flowers 72
Calvin Ridley 70
- It should be noted that Diontae and Watson did not hit 47+ ypg as a rookie.




ROOKIE YARDS PER GAME
Tank Dell had 64 ypg as a rookie. Historically that leads to a 50% stud success rate, 21% good success rate, 29% bust rate. For context, any random 1st round rookie (even one selected in the top 10), their stud success rate is only around 30-35%. For you big brains out there, 50% > 30%.

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Tank Dell [64] [OpenScore: 81] [PFF Grade: 83.3]
Rashee Rice [58] [OpenScore: 57] [PFF Grade: 85.1]




ROOKIE PFF GRADE
Rookies with a PFF Grade of 80+ almost never bust. Dell had a PFF receiving grade of 83.

List of 80+ PFF Rookie receiving grades
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
Michael Thomas
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
AJ Brown
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk
Jamarr Chase
Amon Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave
Drake London
Garrett Wilson



_____________________



WR success by draft round

1st Round

Overall
29% Stud
14% Good
43% Good or Better
57% Bust

Top 10
[33 Total] (12 Stud) (5 Good) (16 Bust)
36% Stud
15% Good
52% Good or Better
48% Bust

11-32
[51 total] (12 Stud) (7 Good) (32 Bust)
24% Stud
14% Good
37% Good or Better
63% Bust


2nd Round
[88 Total] (12 Stud) (11 Good) (65 Bust)
14% Stud
13% Good
26% Good or Better
74% Bust


3rd Round
[93 Total] (11 Stud) (3 Good) (79 Bust)
12% Stud
3% Good
15% Good or Better
85% Bust


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