Any interest in a pre-draft board assessment of players vs draft capital?

[Bronco Billy]

Copied from the Combine thread.

I’ve been thinking about a way to compare the collective knowledge here to that of the NFL as draft capital.

Maybe create a thread for each player that is projected in an amalgam ranking of mock drafts to go in the top 2 or 3 rounds with a poll for the posters here for where they’d rank him on a scale of 1-5 for projected future success (for example maybe 5 would be what we agree to define as a FF WR1 while a 1 would be a complete bust) and then have a composite ranking - which could then be used to create our own ranking for that draft. We could also do a poll for where we project that they ought to go in the NFL draft (maybe something like 1.05 for a projected top 10 pick in the NFL draft, 1.21 for a projected remainder of 1st round pick, 2.08 for top half of 2nd round, etc) to compare where we think they should be drafted compared to where the NFL drafts them.

Then the remainder of that thread would be discussion on that player, letting people put forth their positions on each player.

This would be something that would take place between the combine and the NFL draft, after which the projections and rankings along with NFL draft info would be stored for all players in a single thread for comparison as careers ensue.

I’d be happy to start each thread with the polls and then compile the scores/rankings after the NFL draft is over. We’d need feedback pretty quickly on whether there is interest and then creation of the scoring system in order to get this in place. And people are going to have to agree that even if they aren’t perfectly happy with how the scoring systems are set up that they can live with it rather than potentially turning threads into complaint venues about how we’re pulling this together.

Thoughts?

[yinzername]

^ I'd love to see that, please do! I'm in

[Bronco Billy]

For discussion purpose, proposed scoring systems for the polls:

Projected success:

5 - FF top 12 scorer in a minimum of 2 seasons for RBs and 3 seasons for QB, WR and TE
4 - FF QB2, RB2, WR2/3, TE2 for a minimum of 3 seasons but does not reach criteria for a 5.
3 - Flex player. Can be used regularly as a flex/bye week FF entry but does not reach criteria for a 4.
2 - Rosterable but will not make it to criteria of a 3.
1 - Complete bust. No FF value within 4 years of draft.

Projected draft pick (don’t know how many options are allowed for a poll): This where we think they should be drafted, not where we think the NFL will draft them.

1.05 - top 10 pick in NFL draft
1.21 - 1st rounder outside of top 10
2.08 - top half of 2nd round
2.24 - bottom half of 2nd round
3.08 - top half of 3rd round
3.24 - bottom half of 3rd round
5.00 - 4th round or lower
8.00 - Undrafted

Please feel free to provide feedback!

[Valhalla]

This is an interesting idea, sounds like a fun exercise.

The first issue that comes to mind for me is...opinions are largely an echo chamber, and an exercise like this will simply bring that to light. I admittedly base my opinions on a lot of players...on what the community tells me about him. I don't watch everyone in college. I don't have time for that. So my opinions are based on what your opinions are based on, etc. A collective agreement doesn't NECESSARILY mean there are many independently formed opinions on a player's ability. In short, this exercise would be true to form IF everyone participating were to independently sit down and watch the film and consider the combine numbers of each player, and come up with their own independent opinion...but that isn't the reality of the fantasy community.

The second issue is...MANY form a substantial portion of their view of a player based on draft capital. Before draft capital is known, they DON'T have much of a solid opinion on a player.

Anyways...this sounds like a fun exercise regardless.

[Bronco Billy]

Thoughts on how deep to go? In the amalgam of mock drafts, maybe the top 3 rounds for QBs and WRs and top 4 rounds for RBs and TEs? I don’t want to flood the front page but I also don’t want it to be too narrow.

[Bronco Billy]

Also - if you think this is too ambitious please say so. I’d prefer that this not be a waste of time and bandwidth on the board

[Jigga94]

I mean this is basically how I rank guys pre draft, with their projected draft capital.

For example, I expect Xavier Worthy to go 1st round but I have him in my 2nd tier of WR. Nothing will bump him into tier 1 for me as I already expect him to go top 20ish. If he gets round 2 capital. I probably drop him to tier 3 or 4.

Another one is Pearsall. He's also in my tier 2 with expected capital in the mid 2nd. If he goes higher, I may have to consider moving him up.

The tricky part is just defining those tiers and valuing them

[jordanzs]

Hakeem Butler approves of this project

[Bronco Billy]

Hakeem Butler approves of this project

[Ruggenater]

Hakeem Butler approves of this project

To that case in point, are you effectively just looking for pre-draft fantasy rankings that you’ll then compare against a list sorted by draft capital?

[Bronco Billy]

Hakeem Butler approves of this project

To that case in point, are you effectively just looking for pre-draft fantasy rankings that you’ll then compare against a list sorted by draft capital?

Pretty much trying to show how much smarter we are than the NFL teams’ management and scouting staffs.

[Ruggenater]

To that case in point, are you effectively just looking for pre-draft fantasy rankings that you’ll then compare against a list sorted by draft capital?

Pretty much trying to show how much smarter we are than the NFL teams’ management and scouting staffs.

Right, I got that. I was trying to get at your proposed solution. Instead of setting up a number of polls on this site, is it easier and do you get a larger sample size by instead aggregating pre-draft rankings?

[jordanzs]

I think there's more misses by the community than hits. Take a look at Mark's GEDL (early rookie) draft from last year. I LOVE watching their draft unfold:

https://www48.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... 17349&O=17

How many guys were drafted early in this draft, then slid in the NFL draft, and then exceeded the NFL scout's expectations making us look like the geniuses?

[cazzie33]

I think there's more misses by the community than hits. Take a look at Mark's GEDL (early rookie) draft from last year. I LOVE watching their draft unfold:

https://www48.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... 17349&O=17

How many guys were drafted early in this draft, then slid in the NFL draft, and then exceeded the NFL scout's expectations making us look like the geniuses?

A.T Perry call was a good one , not great … YET !

[jordanzs]

2021 GEDL. Lots of misses but Stevenson & Chuba Hubbard were hits:

https://www48.myfantasyleague.com/2021/ ... 17349&O=17