Rookie WR Production 2023

[Jigga94]

WR - PPR per 50 snap
Reed - 20.04
Rice - 17.08
Dell - 16.70
Puka - 15.37
Wicks - 14.43
Addison - 12.97
Douglas - 12.58
JSN - 11.72
Flowers - 11.40
Downs - 10.57
Perry - 10.10
Mims - 9.87
Wilson - 8.79
QJ - 6.95
Palmer - 6.94
Hyatt - 5.50
Mingo - 4.66
Tillman - 3.84

TE - PPR per 50 snap
Laporta - 12.49
Kincaid - 11.46
Musgrave - 8.19
Kraft - 6.92
Mayer - 5.93
Schoonmaker - 3.90
Washington - 1.39

[murphysxm]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

[Mike11]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Oh dude cmon, he played in every game and showed no tangible increase in output the second half of the year (indicating an injury didn’t slow him). The truth is Dontayvion Wicks had a better rookie year than JSN. Everyone is assuming Lockett is gone but real life teams like having good players and JSN didn’t do enough as a rookie to just assume Lockett is gone and JSN is going to walk into more work. JSN had 90 targets, it’s not exactly nothing and he did little with them.

Player A: 17 games, 93 Targets, 63 catches, 628 yards, 4 TDs
Player B: 15 games, 58 targets, 39 catches, 581 yards, 4 TDs
Player C: 17 games, 98 targets, 68, receptions, 771 yards, 2 TDs

A is JSN, B is Wicks, C is Downs. One of these players is valued as a top 20WR who his owners can’t fathom parting with for less than 1.05-1.08 (JSN), one exceeded expectations (Wicks), and the last one outproduced both but is valued outside the top 35 WR by most.

[Shcritters]

When I said ‘fire-sale’ earlier that was probably slight hyperbole… but I would be in the ‘sell’ camp. As someone who seems to always hold on to long I’d be trying to sell for a mid-1st to re-roll on a different WR this next year. And I was firmly in the ‘if you draft JSN you’re looking at a year-2 investment’… I’ve just not seen anything that really gives me hope that his situation will change significantly (QB or offense philosophy).

Take it from a long-suffering Jerry Jeudy owner… better to get out early and get some value back.

[Cameron Giles]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Oh dude cmon, he played in every game and showed no tangible increase in output the second half of the year (indicating an injury didn’t slow him). The truth is Dontayvion Wicks had a better rookie year than JSN. Everyone is assuming Lockett is gone but real life teams like having good players and JSN didn’t do enough as a rookie to just assume Lockett is gone and JSN is going to walk into more work. JSN had 90 targets, it’s not exactly nothing and he did little with them.

Player A: 17 games, 93 Targets, 63 catches, 628 yards, 4 TDs
Player B: 15 games, 58 targets, 39 catches, 581 yards, 4 TDs
Player C: 17 games, 98 targets, 68, receptions, 771 yards, 2 TDs

A is JSN, B is Wicks, C is Downs. One of these players is valued as a top 20WR who his owners can’t fathom parting with for less than 1.05-1.08 (JSN), one exceeded expectations (Wicks), and the last one outproduced both but is valued outside the top 35 WR by most.

Otherwise known as draft pedigree. JSN didn't light the world on fire, but in the minds of his owners, he did enough to show that improvement is plausible, his draft pedigree is valid, and that he can still be a very good player. That's why his value remains what it is.

If you're arguing that JSN should've done more with his targets, then that's more of a usage thing than anything:

- 296 unrealized air yards
- 24% uncatchable pass rate

Those numbers wouldn't suggest that he was given a ton and failed to maximize it. But, there was a clear cap on his role for this season and it didn't lead to any blowup games.

[Mike11]

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Oh dude cmon, he played in every game and showed no tangible increase in output the second half of the year (indicating an injury didn’t slow him). The truth is Dontayvion Wicks had a better rookie year than JSN. Everyone is assuming Lockett is gone but real life teams like having good players and JSN didn’t do enough as a rookie to just assume Lockett is gone and JSN is going to walk into more work. JSN had 90 targets, it’s not exactly nothing and he did little with them.

Player A: 17 games, 93 Targets, 63 catches, 628 yards, 4 TDs
Player B: 15 games, 58 targets, 39 catches, 581 yards, 4 TDs
Player C: 17 games, 98 targets, 68, receptions, 771 yards, 2 TDs

A is JSN, B is Wicks, C is Downs. One of these players is valued as a top 20WR who his owners can’t fathom parting with for less than 1.05-1.08 (JSN), one exceeded expectations (Wicks), and the last one outproduced both but is valued outside the top 35 WR by most.

Otherwise known as draft pedigree. JSN didn't light the world on fire, but in the minds of his owners, he did enough to show that improvement is plausible, his draft pedigree is valid, and that he can still be a very good player. That's why his value remains what it is.

If you're arguing that JSN should've done more with his targets, then that's more of a usage thing than anything:

- 296 unrealized air yards
- 24% uncatchable pass rate

Those numbers wouldn't suggest that he was given a ton and failed to maximize it. But, there was a clear cap on his role for this season and it didn't lead to any blowup games.

I understand pedigree plays a part, it gives owners a chance to sell on the value perception vs the reality. I'm merely showing relative rookie years in terms of output. I think a lot of rookies will have unrealized yards I don't buy into that much, he wasn't dealing with issues from his QBs on the scale Garrett Wilson or Olave did as rookies.

[CGW]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Oh dude cmon, he played in every game and showed no tangible increase in output the second half of the year (indicating an injury didn’t slow him). The truth is Dontayvion Wicks had a better rookie year than JSN. Everyone is assuming Lockett is gone but real life teams like having good players and JSN didn’t do enough as a rookie to just assume Lockett is gone and JSN is going to walk into more work. JSN had 90 targets, it’s not exactly nothing and he did little with them.

Player A: 17 games, 93 Targets, 63 catches, 628 yards, 4 TDs
Player B: 15 games, 58 targets, 39 catches, 581 yards, 4 TDs
Player C: 17 games, 98 targets, 68, receptions, 771 yards, 2 TDs

A is JSN, B is Wicks, C is Downs. One of these players is valued as a top 20WR who his owners can’t fathom parting with for less than 1.05-1.08 (JSN), one exceeded expectations (Wicks), and the last one outproduced both but is valued outside the top 35 WR by most.

And? Current production is just a piece of the puzzle. There's also draft capital, talent level, and situation to consider. There's a reason why Hunter Renfrow was never valued above CeeDee Lamb in 2021 despite outproducing him. Ceedee was always the better athlete, with better capital, in a situation that many of us thought would only get better (it did).

We know the draft capital is there.
Most people would agree he has a pretty good skill set to earn targets (he did get 93). JSN/DK/Lockett basically split targets the back half of the season. So there's several scenarios where 21yo JSN's situation could improve and complete the puzzle. We'll have to see.

FWIW, I'm not keeping him over any of the rookies that did hit the higher performance standards (Puka, Flowers, Rice, Addison, Reed) or high end 2025 Rookies (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze) but I see no reason to 'fire sale' for a Dontaveon Wicks either, just because they had similar stats in their rookie season. I see no reason why a mid to back end mid first wouldn't be what a JSN owner would want or expect for him. All that means is that he's a hold for owners, as non-owners probably aren't going to pay that.

[murphysxm]

One of these players is valued as a top 20WR who his owners can’t fathom parting with for less than 1.05-1.08 (JSN)

If you would like to stop putting words into my mouth, that would be appreciated.

[Mike11]

One of these players is valued as a top 20WR who his owners can’t fathom parting with for less than 1.05-1.08 (JSN)

If you would like to stop putting words into my mouth, that would be appreciated.

Wasn't even referencing you, I think that if we comb through most pages in here most owners have him between 18-30 and would not sell for less than a first. Not even trying to call people out or go quote hunting because this is more about perception than anything else. JSN still has solid potential and good draft capital to ensure he keeps getting opportunity but it feels like not enough people are acknowledging he could be Jerry Jeudy and people keep holding the bag until the bottom falls out.

[wickerkat1212]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Right? That contributed for sure.

[moishetreats]

For instance, let's take SF (12tm) picks 1.07, 1.11 and 2.2 under consideration. If I had JSN (regardless of where I drafted him or traded to acquire him, because that's a sunk cost), as of today, what would I personally consider fair value for trading him away? I'd definitely take the 1.07 without thinking twice. I'd almost certainly take the 1.11. I'd have to think about trading him for 2.2, but right now I'm probably 50/50 on that pick as well.

What I would not want to do is blindly put my full faith in his name, pedigree and draft stock and decide I'm going to hold him because I can't make the tough determination of how good his first season indicates he's going to turn out to be. As far as I know, JSN didn't have a serious injury that held his stats down. He didn't have (publicized) conflicts with the QB or coaching staff that might led to lower usage.

JSN wasn't playing on a contending NFL team that wanted to allow veterans to drive the team into the playoffs during the last two or three weeks and decided to ignore him in the gameplan. And even if the team was trying to make the playoffs in the last three games, I have to wonder why the coaches didn't think he was a player who, if given more targets/touches, would have helped the team win. If his coaches and QB don't think he's good enough to help them win, I have to wonder whether I (as a fantasy manager) should think so.

OTOH, someone may have a treasure trove of statistical reasons to decide JSN is a diamond in a rough rookie season. Maybe so, but I haven't seen any such research to support that position. Also, even if I wanted to take a flyer on JSN, it seems most of his fantasy shareholders want way more than I'm willing to spend.

IMO, JSN has done nothing to suggest he's going to be a T25WR for fantasy. After what I've see so far, I'm not even sure he can be a consistent T32WR ... meaning if WR30 is his best-case-scenario ceiling, what would I want to pay for a player like that. I certainly don't think JSN has done anything in the pros to suggest his realistic ceiling is WR15-20.

I'd be more than happy to reroll with a 1.11

I don't think people (or enough NFL teams) at all give enough weight to the sunk cost fallacy Anteaters brings up. We look at JSN's season as a failure and, say, Wicks' as a success because of the expectations for them coming into 2023 -- based pretty exclusively on their draft position. At this point, though, any savvy NFL teams (and, for what it's worth, Pete Carroll, IMO, has proven that draft capital does not earn a player snaps) will simply let the best players play.

Yes, we might want to factor in draft capital because NFL teams do: if an NFL team is more willing to give a 1st-round picks multiple shots than 5th-round picks, then the 1st-round players will hold more fantasy value than the 5th-round players. Let's not confuse with that with something else: the draft capital says NOTHING about whether or not they're actually good NFL players.

I don't think JSN profiles as a good enough NFL player to be a long-term good fantasy player. Maybe a WR2 at best or more likely a flex player? The point is that there are far more paths to a value decrease in the upcoming years than a value increase. Selling "low" (let's be realistic here: I'm not talking a 3rd-round pick) doesn't mean it's unwise. It's only "low" because of his draft position in 2023. Getting something meaningful now for JSN is more likely selling high than anything else.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So regarding JSN. The Seahawks actually technically had an above average passing attack. And JSN was a 1st round pick. So in theory, he fits the profile of a stud to emerge from his ypg group.

- He was on an above average passing attack. Most below-average passing attack players had less than 28ypg.

- He was a Day1/2 pick. Most studs to emerge from his ypg group were picked in rounds 1-3 of the nfl draft.

I have no idea why these numbers are the way they are. It could be totally random, or maybe there’s a rhyme and reason. The hit rate is probably still terrible, but at least theres some hope for JSN truthers.


viewtopic.php?p=2228773#p2228773

So I finished writing down the team situations of all the players that ended up as studs that had "subpar" (less than 47ypg) rookie seasons.

13 players were on teams with above average passing yardage

14 players were on teams with below average passing yardage
- Worth noting that 12 of the 14 had less than 28ypg as rookies, meaning only 2 of the 14 had 29-46ypg.

The average passing yardage was around 210 yards per game from 1995-2010. There was a significant increase to around 220-230ypg after 2010. So I'm basing most of this on the 210ypg mark.

So it seems that a below-average passing attack does push the rookie ypg down. Which I guess is common sense, but from the data it only seems to be a critical factor for the lower half of the rookie ypg, it doesn't really account for the upper half (29-46 ypg group). Only 2 players from the upper half were on a below average passing attack.

Draft Capital also seems to play a factor. Only 1 player (out of 10), or 10%, in the "upper half" (28-46ypg) was a day 3 pick or later (Julian Edeleman). Whereas 6 players (out of 17), or 35%, were a day 3 pick or later in the 0-27 ypg grouping.

So to recap;
- Bad passing offense is one reason, but doesn't explain everything
- Bad draft capital is another reason, but also doesn't explain everything

These 2 things really only seem to explain why a future stud has a really poor rookie season (0-27 ypg). They don't really seem to explain the 28-46 ypg seasons.

The next thing to look at is target competition, which I'll continue at some point.

[Anteaters]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Fair enough. I forgot about that.
But I haven't forgotten about how he failed to impress even after he recovered.

I think I'm in the same camp as the someone who said, based on what he's shown so far "there are more paths for JSN to not be a T36WR than to be a T20WR." I'm paraphrasing, but that's sort of what someone said a few posts ago. I truly believe the stats/odds are stacked against JSN being a differencemaker in fantasy. So, if I'm to acquire him, it's not going to be at the cost of a 1st rounder or any player I plan on starting on my fantasy team.

[Mike11]

But tell me the last real world WR who had as disappointing a healthy first season as JSN has had who turned out to be a consistent T15WR for fantasy?

I am not saying it explains all, but since when is breaking your wrist week 2 of your rookie preseason a healthy first season?

Fair enough. I forgot about that.
But I haven't forgotten about how he failed to impress even after he recovered.

I think I'm in the same camp as the someone who said, based on what he's shown so far "there are more paths for JSN to not be a T36WR than to be a T20WR." I'm paraphrasing, but that's sort of what someone said a few posts ago. I truly believe the stats/odds are stacked against JSN being a differencemaker in fantasy. So, if I'm to acquire him, it's not going to be at the cost of a 1st rounder or any player I plan on starting on my fantasy team.

I agree with this, that's sort of exactly been my point. I don't think any owner is selling for less than a first or worst case early second. It's more likely he gets flipped to a rebuilder for someone producing now than we see him flipped for a pick because the rebuilders won't give up faith or feel pressed the same way about production.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

- PFF Grade 80+ = "Never Bust". Puka, Dell, Rice STRONG HOLD/BUYS.
- PFF Grade 75+ plus 47+ ypg = Strong Profile. Jayden Reed fits this bill. Strong hold/buy

- Tre Tucker ends the year with a 64 open score, 3rd highest among rookies. Interesting stash?
- Puka with an epic rookie season. Literally a 1 in 100 player.

Open Score Data
- Under 45 Open Score is practically a death sentence for WR's that aren't giants that don't "win" by "getting open" (a'la Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton). Even though Addison met the ypg threshold, his open score of 44 is not ideal. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Statistically there are likely to be at least 1 bust from the 47-66 group this year, if I had to pick I'd be forced to choose Addison. His PFF Grade is also not ideal. By far the riskiest asset of the 47+ group, in my opinion.

- JSN's Open Score of 45 also doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, and neither does his PFF Grade. JSN is going to be a very polarizing player this offseason. I've always thought JSN was overrated, and thought Flowers was clearly a better prospect coming out of college. I think 9 times out of 10, selling a player like JSN for a 1st is going to be the correct play. 1 times out of 10 it might burn you, but you'll come out ahead in the long run. Is this one of the 9 times out of 10 or one of the 1 times out of 10? Nobody knows for sure. How many people held Burks, Christian Watson, Skyy Moore, Dotson, Jameson Williams, Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Kadarius Toney, Ruggs, Harry, Shenault, Reagor, Gabe Davis, thinking "oh, if just this and this go right he'll be a stud!" ... the list is endless. A few do emerge (Pittman, maybe Sutton/Nico, etc.) but its few and far between and often with no discernible rhyme or reason.
A quote from last years year-end report "I've been seeing talk that people wouldn't sell Dotson, Burks, Moore, etc for 2023 1st and I think that is really misguided."
I understand he's not in a high-octane offense (although it was still an above-average passing attack) and he's "blocked" by 2 established WR's, but even the things he could control (Open Score and PFF Grade) he didn't seem to do very well at. Nobody is saying just to drop JSN, but I and others have outlined probably 5-10 different ways to eject JSN from your roster and get better odds/value in return.

- Other rookies with poor open scores; Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, QJ, Tillman, Trey Palmer, Gipson. Sell sell sell.

- Over 70 Open Score is excellent news. Over 75 even better. Dell and Flowers

Over 70 Rookie Open Score since 2017
Diontae Johnson 91
Chris Olave 82
Tank Dell 81
AJ Brown 80
Justin Jefferson 78
G Wilson 77
Terry McLaurin 73
Christian Watson 73
Zay Flowers 72
Calvin Ridley 70
- It should be noted that Diontae and Watson did not hit 47+ ypg as a rookie.

- Tucker Kraft is an incredible value at TE right now. See TE Report below


Update for Week 18

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
0% Good
10% Bust
Puka Nacua [87] [OpenScore: 55] [PFF Grade: 85.1]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Tank Dell [64] [OpenScore: 81] [PFF Grade: 83.3]
Rashee Rice [58] [OpenScore: 57] [PFF Grade: 85.1]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
41% Good
24% Bust
Zay Flowers [53] [OpenScore: 72] [PFF Grade: 73.9]
Jordan Addison [53] [OpenScore: 44] [PFF Grade: 69.7]
Jayden Reed [49] [OpenScore: 52] [PFF Grade: 76]


-------^^^GOOD^^^-------------vvvBADvvv---------------------------


37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
13% Good
74% Bust

Josh Downs [45] [OpenScore: 62] [PFF Grade: 71]
Michael Wilson [43] [OpenScore: 43] [PFF Grade: 68.7]
Demario Douglas [40] [OpenScore: 39] [PFF Grade: 75.6]
Dontayvion Wicks [38] [OpenScore: 62] [PFF Grade: 77.8]


27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [36] [OpenScore: 45] [PFF Grade: 63.9]
Jonathan Mingo [27] [OpenScore: 21] [PFF Grade: 52.6]


Less than 27
Will have to update these hit rates...
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Quentin Johnston [25] [OpenScore: 25] [PFF Grade: 58.7]
A.T. Perry [24] [PFF Grade: 61.5]
Marvin Mims [23] [PFF Grade: 64.6]
Trey Palmer [22] [OpenScore: 44] [PFF Grade: 52.7]
Jalin Hyatt [21] [OpenScore: 56] [PFF Grade: 58.5]
Tre Tucker [20] [OpenScore: 64] [PFF Grade: 64.3]
Cedric Tillman [16] [OpenScore: 24] [PFF Grade: 55.4]
Parker Washington [14] [PFF Grade: 53.4]
Xavier Gipson [13] [OpenScore: 31] [PFF Grade: 56.5]
Jake Bobo [11] [PFF Grade: 70.7]
Tyler Scott [9] [OpenScore: 61] [PFF Grade: 53.2]
+10 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________

- The only TE to hit all the thresholds this season is Tucker Kraft. I think it's hard to say he should be valued over the other TE's, but I do think it makes him a strong buy as his price would be the cheapest. He's a more prototypical TE (in size) than Chig was.
- Chig didn't have the year many thought but he actually did improve from his rookie year. I think he's also a strong buy still at his price. Elite TE's typically break out in year 2 or 3, so Chig still has 1 year to go to do it. The Titans were a mess this year, I think there's still a lot of room for optimism going forward.


Rookie TE Report: Week 18

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.


- Tucker Kraft. Buy buy buy!

- It should be noted LaPorta's YPR is 10.3, which is pretty good, so his lower YPT might not be as meaningful as say Kincaid's, whose YPR is only 9.2. Mayers YPR is 11.3.

Tucker Kraft [OpenScore: 46]
20 YPG
77% Catch Percentage
8.9 YPT

Sam LaPorta [OpenScore: 52]
52 YPG
71% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Dalton Kincaid [OpenScore: 62]
42 YPG
80% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Michael Mayer [OpenScore: 52]
21 YPG
67% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

Luke Musgrave [OpenScore: 57]
21 YPG
73% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT


_______________________________________