Kendre Miller Thread

[ZakHH]

So what are our expectations for Kendre going into 2024? I'll admit I'm struggling with a prediction here.

First question is obviously what the Saints will do with Kamara. While he did look better than I had expected this year, I still can't see them keeping him. His cap hit in 2024 would be more than twice as high as it was this year, and he's not getting any younger.

The Saints find themselves deep in cap hell in 2024. They rank dead last, with a current cap deficit of almost $90m, twice as much as the #31 team (Chargers). They could save $23m against the cap by cutting Kamara loose. That's 25% of their cap problem solved in just 1 move. I just can't see how they would not do that. But past experience has shown that NFL managers seem to think differently than I do.

But let's assume they let Kamara go - the second question is, will that make Kendre their 2024 starter? Jamaal Williams will still be around next year. And while he has shown very little in 2023, it was still more than what we saw of Kendre.

Plus, they might add another option via draft, or by signing another veteran journeyman.

The best case scenario I can see for Kendre is that his lack of 2023 production was indeed caused only by his lingering health issues, and that he could turn 2024 into his breakout season, if he enters it free of Kamara and any health issues.

[killer_of_giants]

according to spotrac, kamara's contract has a cap hit of 18 million and dead cap of 16 (post june 1st: dead cap of 6 million in '24, 10 million in '25). not sure it makes cutting him all that easy.
saints have been in cap hell for a while now, i can see them do some more magic and reworking a bunch of contracts, including kamara's.

[Jigga94]

Yeah the Saints cap hell is something I have been watching for a few years it seems. They keep kicking the can down the road and everyone thinks it's cap magic. The bill is coming due soon and they are in dire need of a rebuild.

[j4pac]

I’m a Saints fan. I want Miller to be a great back but I just don’t see it. There is a huge difference between Kamara and Miller. Ones a great back and the other is not. But Miller has done well roundedness to his game. His ability to receive has been above average. Nowhere near Kamara, but definitely good enough. I think he’s a solid but low guy because his price is so low right now. But my expectations are guarded. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints add another RB if they lose Kamara (which honestly is debatable).

[murphysxm]

Yeah the Saints cap hell is something I have been watching for a few years it seems. They keep kicking the can down the road and everyone thinks it's cap magic. The bill is coming due soon and they are in dire need of a rebuild.

They have been kicking, but I also think they are smart in their plan. I have zero concerns with any teams cap numbers. Every year it always seems to get figured out.

[Anteaters]

I think the Saints go one more year with high cap and the HC. Sort of all-in with what they have, because they can't really start a rebuild with AK/Carr and other high-dollar veterans more or less locked in for another year. Then they'll pay the cap hits and start the tear down after the '24 season.

That's all bad news for Kendre getting any major run next year. If AK is still on the roster, AK is still getting the majority of the position snaps+touches.

[Bronco Billy]

I still believe in the talent. I’m hoping that all his injury time this past season are due to sympathetic injuries because he didn’t get time to heal fully enough. He’s shown in his limited time that he can be a well rounded RB. He’ll get time in the offseason to heal fully and then we’ll get a chance to see what he’s really capable of next season.

[Jigga94]

Yeah the Saints cap hell is something I have been watching for a few years it seems. They keep kicking the can down the road and everyone thinks it's cap magic. The bill is coming due soon and they are in dire need of a rebuild.

They have been kicking, but I also think they are smart in their plan. I have zero concerns with any teams cap numbers. Every year it always seems to get figured out.

By figured out, you mean eating a ton of dead cap and sucking for a few years, then sure

[murphysxm]

Yeah the Saints cap hell is something I have been watching for a few years it seems. They keep kicking the can down the road and everyone thinks it's cap magic. The bill is coming due soon and they are in dire need of a rebuild.

They have been kicking, but I also think they are smart in their plan. I have zero concerns with any teams cap numbers. Every year it always seems to get figured out.

By figured out, you mean eating a ton of dead cap and sucking for a few years, then sure

It is certainly possible, but I just feel like they will figure something out. Teams always do

[lukkynumber13]

Yeah the Saints cap hell is something I have been watching for a few years it seems. They keep kicking the can down the road and everyone thinks it's cap magic. The bill is coming due soon and they are in dire need of a rebuild.

No, it’s not

There is always money in the banana stand (there is always a way to cheat the cap )

The above bolded has been said for the better part of a decade. If a team is willing to spend real money, they can do what they want in terms of cap.

[Cameron Giles]

Jamaal Williams is averaging 3.0 YPC and turns 29 in April. In 6 of his last 7 games, he's had more than 6 carries one time. He's caught 9 passes on 209 snaps this year. I suspect that if Miller was even remotely healthy this season, Williams would've been rendered to a healthy scratch. He's ridiculously ineffective and a non-factor if you're projecting Miller's role.

I think Kamara will be back and they'll restructure his deal. He's still a good player and a scary weapon.

Miller is talented, and looked like a better than receiver than we got to see in college. But, because of injuries, he hasn't shown anything this year for the Saints to keep a role in mind for him. He'll have to earn it in the offseason and prove that the injuries are behind him. Luckily for him, it's a bad RB class and the Saints probably won't spend in FA on another RB.

[Jigga94]

Yeah the Saints cap hell is something I have been watching for a few years it seems. They keep kicking the can down the road and everyone thinks it's cap magic. The bill is coming due soon and they are in dire need of a rebuild.

No, it’s not

There is always money in the banana stand (there is always a way to cheat the cap )

The above bolded has been said for the better part of a decade. If a team is willing to spend real money, they can do what they want in terms of cap.

It has been said a lot, but then teams generally do a quick rebuild, eat the dead cap and move on. The Saints on the other hand have been restructuring and kicking this can for a while.

"If the #Saints cut every player on their roster in 2024 that had a positive salary cap savings they would create just $15.375M in cap room. They are currently around $85M over the cap. So this isn't really a situation where you can reset anymore. It simply isnt feasible" @Jason_OTC

From what I see Peat and Winston account for 25M next yr and neither are even under contract.

Then you have these cap hits next year, which are in part so large because they have restructured over and over. Carr has underperformed all year and Jordan will be 35
Carr 35M
Ramczyk 27M
Lattimore 25M
Cam Jordan 23M
Kamara 18M
Davis 18M
Taysom 15M

The NFL salary cap for 2024 is 240M. They currently have 43 players under contract and their combined cap is 330M.

Take a look for yourself if you would like
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans ... early/cap/

[FantasyFreak]

I'd really like to see him get out there in the last few games. He's 21, so he's a year younger than a lot of the RB's in this class. I've seen enough to give me optimism, especially in the passing game. My only concern is health. If he can stay healthy, I think he has a role next season, and Kamara, at some point, will have a decreased role, or he may get hurt as he ages. I'd like to see Kendre as the 1B to Kamara, next season.

[ZakHH]

Of course the Saints can solve the cap situation. Restructuring contracts can free up lots of cap space on the short run. The only problem is: you pawn off the future of your franchise. Because restructuring contracts means you have to pay players years after they retired.

That can make sense when you are still in a window of opportunity that is closing slowly. Go all in, bring in some veteran talent, move their salaries into the future, and try to win it all now. No fan base ever talked about the dry spell after winning a Super Bowl.

But the Saints don't look like they are anywhere near any window of opportunity. What would they hope for if they restructured Kamara's contract, making sure they'd have to pay him high 7-digit numbers for years to come?

In my eyes, it would be a mistake. But then, the Saints made a lot of doubtful decisions in recent years. There was a reason Sean Payton wanted out at any cost. He saw the writing on the wall.

So who knows what will happen next.

[Jigga94]

Of course the Saints can solve the cap situation. Restructuring contracts can free up lots of cap space on the short run. The only problem is: you pawn off the future of your franchise. Because restructuring contracts means you have to pay players years after they retired.

That can make sense when you are still in a window of opportunity that is closing slowly. Go all in, bring in some veteran talent, move their salaries into the future, and try to win it all now. No fan base ever talked about the dry spell after winning a Super Bowl.

But the Saints don't look like they are anywhere near any window of opportunity. What would they hope for if they restructured Kamara's contract, making sure they'd have to pay him high 7-digit numbers for years to come?

In my eyes, it would be a mistake. But then, the Saints made a lot of doubtful decisions in recent years. There was a reason Sean Payton wanted out at any cost. He saw the writing on the wall.

So who knows what will happen next.

Right, they have needed the dead/rebuild year since Brees retired. Instead, they are opting to pay the likes of MT, Kamara, Winston, Taysom, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, etc. until 2027 and on. It's so bad in 2024 that they won't have a choice but to restructure even more and have even more dead money in the future. Good luck to the Saints over the next 5-10 years. They've gone all in the past few years and have nothing to show for.

As far as Kamara, he's probably going to be restructured again. Why not make his future cap hits a little bigger? It's only 29M in 2025 and then 4M in 2026 when he isn't under contract. Add 5M to each year and another 5M to 2027 and run it back!