Olave Garden is Back on the Menu

[Anteaters]

I suppose it comes down to your risk aversion but I'd be surprised if you found anyone willing to actually trade two mid 1sts for Olave.

I wouldn't. Then again, I see Olave as a very good low end WR2 who is being overvalued as a midWR1.

At the right price, I'd be very happy to trade for Olave. At current valuations, not so much.

Fantasy managers have to be careful about getting over excited about athleticism and better than average seasons as a rookie. Every NFL WR is athletic and most are rare athletic specimens. There can only be 12 (or 14) WR1s in fantasy. Let's say we push that to 16-18 guys because of fluctuation and close calls. Olave ain't there.

Sure, we can toss out a few old guys in dynasty rankings and try to guess which young guys are going to improve their stats and be next years (or two years from now) T16WRs. But looking forward means not only downgrading old guys like Evans and Adams, it means adding in rookies who will be studs. For all intents and purposes, a second or third year WR who is scoring WR26 in 2023, is going to be a WR who is scoring around WR26 in 2024.

If you see something you truly like about a player that points to growth, go for it. But don't try to force anticipated growth on every player with athleticism, or you'll be chasing ever chick at the bar after catching a glimpse at her from across a crowded room.

Pay for Olave the same as you'd pay for Flowers or Pittman or Kirk. And even that is a bit of a reach for me right now. If Olave's situation presented a higher target share, he'd be on these guys value level. Right now, I put him a smidge below, but close enough for this comparison.

are we going put waddle in this category too? or does he fall further? He is struggling this year injury possible? IDk is why I ask? Wilson we going move down he is struggling too? just curious what the break point is? I love any of them on my team, there are only a few "studs" in the league it why they are so valuable and rightfully so. IMO, The top ones are elite talent with elite type situations.

That is exactly my point. I never said Olave is garbage. I'd like to have him on my teams, just as I'd like to have Waddle and Wilson and other guys.

I think some people translate "I wouldn't pay two mid 1sts for him" into "I think he's terrible."

As you said, there are only a few studs, and to be a stud you need elite (I'd say almost-elite would do) talent AND an elite situation. Players who lack the situation should not be priced the same as those who have the elite situation. I get the dynasty mantra of trade for the future, but I also trade for the present because I don't believe in multi-year rebuilds. I don't have time to give up stud prices for WRs I have to wait years to end up in a situation that maximizes their talent.

Other managers disagree with me on that. Other managers don't mind trading on talent alone and gambling the elite situation will come along one day. That's cool with me and I don't disparage that path. It's just not one I choose to pursue.

So, if I drafted Olave, yeah, I'm holding on and hoping for the best, just like I am with Waddle, GWilson, London and whoever else. But if I don't own one of those guy and I want to trade for him, I'm not paying stud-level prices for a guy who can't deliver stud numbers for the foreseeable future. For the record, Waddle has an elite situation and I have more faith that he'll rebound this season than Olave.

I don't have Olave. I hate Olave's trade value.

It's all about opportunity cost. If Olave is producing like Kirk and I can get Kirk for a 1st, why should I pay two 1sts for Olave? For his name? For his rookie hype in fantasyland? I choose to pay for production. I'm fine with others paying extra for hype.

[Tvols]

Well waddle is in an idea situation and isn’t producing so do we drop him to low wr 2 high wr 3. That is where he is scoring ?We cant nickel and dime who we want In the wr 1 can we ? I just have an issue is giving one player a pass and not other,. I honest believe all these guys can have a wr1 season or two .

[Sriracha]

Well waddle is in an idea situation and isn’t producing so do we drop him to low wr 2 high wr 3. That is where he is scoring ?We cant nickel and dime who we want In the wr 1 can we ? I just have an issue is giving one player a pass and not other,. I honest believe all these guys can have a wr1 season or two .

Plenty of WRs that are going for a lot less than 2 mid 1sts can give you a WR1 season.

Diontae Johnson and Christian Kirk for instance. The potential to put out a WR1 season is not worth 2 mid 1sts, imo.

In addition, Waddle is playing through an injury right now but he's already put out a WR1 season and is in the highest scoring offense in the NFL. I still wouldn't pay 2 mid 1sts for him but I'd value him higher than Olave.

[FantasyFreak]

So here's the part i disagree with - he's getting 26% of the target share for the Saints. He's 8th in overall targets on the season. But look a little deeper and see why it's not translating to WR1 numbers this year. Currently, he sits at #81 in catchable target rate at 63.2%. He's getting poop for targets, especially downfield where he's very good.

It’s almost as if Carr wasn’t that much of an upgrade. I pointed this out over the offseason. Doesn’t look so crazy now. I am a little surprised at the downfield targets being bad. Is there a stat on that for this year?

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=236124&hilit=Dalton

If you check the charts in the article, his performance last year was in the ball park of his career averages. Comparing 2022 Dalton to career average Carr, the numbers were also in the ball park. Maybe the numbers in the article are wrong. Idk. I’m just curious if anyone has any concrete numbers that show Carr is a clear and significant upgrade over 2022 Dalton.

Edit: the only one I see is that Carr has a better deep ball completion percentage than Dalton did last year. That does mesh with Olave’s skill set nicely.

I was wrong on Carr in the offseason. I really though his deep ball matched up with Olaves skillset, but it just hasn't been the case. Some of that is the shoulder injury, but even prior to that it wasn't good. It's been horrendous since the injury.

I mean, Carr hit him for a 30 plus yard TD vs the Pats and Olave dropped it. He's not doing himself any favours. Shaheed seems to be the big play guy this year.

[Bronco Billy]

Olave seems to be suffering because there is so much talent in the O weapons in NO. MT seems to be back, and while he is not the same guy who racked up pinball type receptions a few years ago, he’s a credible threat. Shaheed is showing off some serious chops as a receiving threat who can turn any play into a homerun. And now Kamara is back.

There’s just not enough footballs to go around in NO. That doesn’t diminish Olave’s talent, but it sure does dilute his opportunities.

[CGW]

Olave seems to be suffering because there is so much talent in the O weapons in NO. MT seems to be back, and while he is not the same guy who racked up pinball type receptions a few years ago, he’s a credible threat. Shaheed is showing off some serious chops as a receiving threat who can turn any play into a homerun. And now Kamara is back.

There’s just not enough footballs to go around in NO. That doesn’t diminish Olave’s talent, but it sure does dilute his opportunities.

To be fair he was 8th in WR targets in the league prior to this week where he had 9 more.

Had he caught the wide open TD ball that hit him in the head, his stats would have been pretty nice again in week 8. Another week, another mental lapse. I'd love to see him eliminate these.

[Bronco Billy]

Olave seems to be suffering because there is so much talent in the O weapons in NO. MT seems to be back, and while he is not the same guy who racked up pinball type receptions a few years ago, he’s a credible threat. Shaheed is showing off some serious chops as a receiving threat who can turn any play into a homerun. And now Kamara is back.

There’s just not enough footballs to go around in NO. That doesn’t diminish Olave’s talent, but it sure does dilute his opportunities.

To be fair he was 8th in WR targets in the league prior to this week where he had 9 more.

Had he caught the wide open TD ball that hit him in the head, his stats would have been pretty nice again in week 8. Another week, another mental lapse. I'd love to see him eliminate these.

Yeah, I’m curious to see if that target rate holds up. FWIW given Rashid’s return on opportunities I have a hard time seeing him not cutting into Olave’s targets moving forward. Damn, that guy is just electric.

[CGW]

Olave seems to be suffering because there is so much talent in the O weapons in NO. MT seems to be back, and while he is not the same guy who racked up pinball type receptions a few years ago, he’s a credible threat. Shaheed is showing off some serious chops as a receiving threat who can turn any play into a homerun. And now Kamara is back.

There’s just not enough footballs to go around in NO. That doesn’t diminish Olave’s talent, but it sure does dilute his opportunities.

To be fair he was 8th in WR targets in the league prior to this week where he had 9 more.

Had he caught the wide open TD ball that hit him in the head, his stats would have been pretty nice again in week 8. Another week, another mental lapse. I'd love to see him eliminate these.

Yeah, I’m curious to see if that target rate holds up. FWIW given Rashid’s return on opportunities I have a hard time seeing him not cutting into Olave’s targets moving forward. Damn, that guy is just electric.

He is, but you can also only throw downfield 30+ yards so many times. I'd love to see his route tree. Doubt it overlaps much with Thomas or Olave.

[Bronco Billy]

To be fair he was 8th in WR targets in the league prior to this week where he had 9 more.

Had he caught the wide open TD ball that hit him in the head, his stats would have been pretty nice again in week 8. Another week, another mental lapse. I'd love to see him eliminate these.

Yeah, I’m curious to see if that target rate holds up. FWIW given Rashid’s return on opportunities I have a hard time seeing him not cutting into Olave’s targets moving forward. Damn, that guy is just electric.

He is, but you can also only throw downfield 30+ yards so many times. I'd love to see his route tree. Doubt it overlaps much with Thomas or Olave.

He’s caught short passes and turned them into big gainers. He’s not just a deep receiver and he’s got good hands and contested catch skills.

[FantasyFreak]

Good to see him playing well. Sucks about the injury. His 3rd now? A little concerning, but he is a really good player. 114 yards in the first half. Was on his way to a monster game.

[hoos89]

It's all about opportunity cost. If Olave is producing like Kirk and I can get Kirk for a 1st, why should I pay two 1sts for Olave? For his name? For his rookie hype in fantasyland? I choose to pay for production. I'm fine with others paying extra for hype.

(1) Youth premium - Olave is 4 years younger
(2) Take a look at Kirk's production as a 2nd year player and compare to what Olave is doing this season. Now consider whether perhaps Olave might also see an increase in production over the next few seasons (whereas Kirk's will very likely begin to drop during that time).
(3) Kirk is tied to one of the most hyped young QBs in the league (9th in QBR) while Olave is tied to Derek Carr (22nd)...and yet 2nd year Olave is outproducing 6th year Kirk on the season by 1 PPG.

Makes a lot of sense to me to pay more for Olave than for Kirk.

[dynastyninja]

Olave is basically a young DJM for me, for better or worse.