Garrett Wilson is my WR1 in this class and it’s not that close for me… am I crazy??

[Bronco Billy]

Well, I’ll end with this:

Entering 2023, Wilson will have a major upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers under center. Last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 fantasy points, 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Top-10 fantasy WR numbers. If Rodgers can just be accurate throwing the ball (seems manageable), Wilson will crush it in 2023. No Jets QB completed more than 60% of their passes last season. Rodgers completed 64.6% of his passes last season, which was close to his career average (65.3%).

So with barely mediocre QBing Wilson produced as a top 10 WR as a rookie. There’s reasonable expectation that he will improve his play and that his QB will be better. That makes top 5-6 production a reasonable expectation with some room for some slight upside.

There is also a fallacy of relying on KTC as the one and only source of his value. I’m seeing several other credible sites that have Wilson as the dynasty WR6/7. KTC ain’t the word of God.

Looking at the amalgam of the above and how early it is in his career, his current value seems pretty reasonable and yes, those single player numbers would be difficult to replace if he does play at his potential - not above, but at his potential.

[Jigga94]

As for KTC, I pay zero attention to it. Never even gone on the site. I read up on it, and that was enough to know it doesn't hold any sort of weight on my decision making or valuation of players. I hold no value to it when people reference it for trade values. Same as when people try and sell me on a deal because of a trade calculator.

It has value as a reflection of group-think. That's a good thing to have a handle on as a trader imo.

It also has historical data, so it's one of the easiest ways to track a players changing value over time.

eg. this time last year Gabe Davis was WR16 and now he's WR48

KTC is quite literally dynasty players crowd sourced rankings. Yes it's going to be skewed towards youth and draft picks. Guess what? That's usually what is overvalued in dynasty so that tracks imo.

No it's not the end all... nothing in dynasty is. That's what we are all so addicted right?

Trade calculators are garbage anyways so not worth using that either unless you are just trying to ballpark something.

I like the historical data too. I believe Pittman was WR6 this time last year? Lol

[Patsfan86]

Call me crazy, call me too optimistic, but I’m not that worried about him for this year. Will not have Rodgers hurt? Yes, but Rodgers may have been in the beginning of a decline for all we know. We also don’t know for sure he will have Zach Wilson as QB all season. The facts are Garrett Wilson is a total stud who is gonna get targets no matter who the QB is. He may not have a massive breakout now this year but i can guarantee you he will finish better than he did last year.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Call me crazy, call me too optimistic, but I’m not that worried about him for this year. Will not have Rodgers hurt? Yes, but Rodgers may have been in the beginning of a decline for all we know. We also don’t know for sure he will have Zach Wilson as QB all season. The facts are Garrett Wilson is a total stud who is gonna get targets no matter who the QB is. He may not have a massive breakout now this year but i can guarantee you he will finish better than he did last year.

You're crazy.

[CGW]

Call me crazy, call me too optimistic, but I’m not that worried about him for this year. Will not have Rodgers hurt? Yes, but Rodgers may have been in the beginning of a decline for all we know. We also don’t know for sure he will have Zach Wilson as QB all season. The facts are Garrett Wilson is a total stud who is gonna get targets no matter who the QB is. He may not have a massive breakout now this year but i can guarantee you he will finish better than he did last year.

While we are posting in multiple spots:
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Well yeah, he's a stud. That said, he only got 5 targets last night and 3 of them were barely catchable - saw that TD catch right?? The Jets are going to run the ball 40 times a game to hide Zach (Saleh claims they are sticking with Mr MILF hunter). Wilson will get his, but his prospects of being a top 5 WR this season have taken a bit of a hit. And based on his value, everyone had him as a top 5 lock. Still a great dynasty asset, but I would no longer be confident with him as my number 1 in redrafts.
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I think you may be crazy. I hope you are right because I own lots of Wilson...but I dunno man...

[dynastyninja]

Wilson is absolutely downgraded. The visions of him potentially being a high-end WR1 this year are fading fast. I'm assuming he'll be a WR2 this year. Not the end of the world dynasty-wise, but he's much less appealing this season to me.

[Jigga94]

He's just a hold (possible buy low, if someone is panicking) at this point unless you can still get some crazy haul for him like some were this offseason.

Still an elite talent, the QB situation will get better, eventually. Would I want him as my WR1 or even 2 on a competitor? Not really, but I don't think he's unstartable either.

[FantasyFreak]

Wilson is absolutely downgraded. The visions of him potentially being a high-end WR1 this year are fading fast. I'm assuming he'll be a WR2 this year. Not the end of the world dynasty-wise, but he's much less appealing this season to me.

Yep. Still a talented player, but his ceiling is capped compared to what it was supposed to be this year. His re-draft value took a massive hit. His short term Dynasty outlook for the next 2 years is now a lot less rosy. Top 5 upside was way more likely with Rodgers.

[Cameron Giles]

Upside w/o Rodgers is noticeably lower. The one thing he does have still in his favor is that he is likely still going to be the first read on most on their passing plays and he's still really good at getting open. But the consistency of big games won't be there unless Z. Wilson takes a leap under a coordinator who wasn't brought in to work with him specifically.

[Cameron Giles]

On pace this year for 103/1212/4 with one of the worst QBs in the league. Currently WR16 on the season in terms of total points. Looking like a season of what-ifs for Wilson, who likely would've been an elite WR this season with a healthy Rodgers.

[kmbryant09]

I have zero doubts that Wilson would have been a top5 WR this season if Rodgers was healthy.

I don't know that it really means anything, as he's only going to be a WR 2/3 this year and there's no guarantee Rodgers ever regains his form, but man the guy is UBER talented.

For '24 and beyond, I think I'd rather have Wilson over any WR not named Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, and probably Brown.

[tstafford]

Agreed. Would have been top-5 if everyone was healthy. I think A.Rod would have force fed him - same as Z.Wilson has. Let's hope we get to see a couple of games of what could have been. If Wilson can be bought at a discount, do it. Guessing his managers aren't biting.

[Bronco Billy]

That Z Wilson isn’t the worst rated QB in the league is a testament to just how good G Wilson is.