Alvin Kamara; What are you guys doing?

[Ice]

Might as well hold or get out while you can. Kamara's market value is falling almost as fast as FTX did.

I guess if your into penny stocks you try to buy for a very late pick.

[dondickenson]

Might as well hold or get out while you can. Kamara's market value is falling almost as fast as FTX did.

I guess if your into penny stocks you try to buy for a very late pick.

I have to agree. I made a killing taking advantage of owner worry in the cases of Tyreek, Watson, and Ridley, probably gaining 3 1sts worth of value overall on the team in my sig by buying low when panic was at its peak.

Around now, or over the next few months, is when that panic buy period would normally be, but in Kamara’s case his age and his decreased production and efficiency year over year really puts me off.

Taysom Hill is definitely still in NO in 2023 with his massive dead cap - but could be gone after that with outs over the final few years of his contract. He will continue to vulture work, especially goal line, even if Kamara is only suspended 4-6 games.

And speaking of a likely suspension, the Saints would almost definitely be looking to add another capable RB to that room. Does Kamara ever see enough touches again at his reduced efficiency to be elite per game? Odds do not seem good.

[Pullo Vision]

If I believed Kamara's production/efficiency issues were due to age, I'd decline to buy. But, I put it more on the scheme and/or situation. The OC stayed but maybe they get a QB upgrade. They do have RB depth issues, but as long as they don't bring in a back proficient as a receiver, I wouldn't be worried.

[dondickenson]

If I believed Kamara's production/efficiency issues were due to age, I'd decline to buy. But, I put it more on the scheme and/or situation. The OC stayed but maybe they get a QB upgrade. They do have RB depth issues, but as long as they don't bring in a back proficient as a receiver, I wouldn't be worried.

I posted this early on in this thread:

"Kamara has slowly degraded over his six year career. First two seasons he averaged 5.2ypc and had 31TDs. Next two seasons 4.9ypc and 27 TDs. Last two seasons 3.8ypc and 13 TDs. And those 13 TDs came on over 100 more touches in years 5-6 than he got in years 1-2. He has slowed down a lot last two seasons. Can hardly expect that trajectory to change at age 28 with his legal troubles looming and lack of coaching changes in NO."

Are you saying you don't attribute any of this massive fall off in efficiency to age? What then? QB? Coach?

I could not fathom not being worried about Kamara's production going forward unless I heard some kind of rational argument as to why he will bounce back to his 2017-2020 levels of efficiency, and what held him back in 2021-2022 that will be different going forward. It would have to be a hell of an argument too as he ages past the average RB cliff this year and has legal troubles/suspension looming in immediate future, with his downside being below the basement if it goes wrong in criminal court.

[Pullo Vision]

If I believed Kamara's production/efficiency issues were due to age, I'd decline to buy. But, I put it more on the scheme and/or situation. The OC stayed but maybe they get a QB upgrade. They do have RB depth issues, but as long as they don't bring in a back proficient as a receiver, I wouldn't be worried.

I posted this early on in this thread:

"Kamara has slowly degraded over his six year career. First two seasons he averaged 5.2ypc and had 31TDs. Next two seasons 4.9ypc and 27 TDs. Last two seasons 3.8ypc and 13 TDs. And those 13 TDs came on over 100 more touches in years 5-6 than he got in years 1-2. He has slowed down a lot last two seasons. Can hardly expect that trajectory to change at age 28 with his legal troubles looming and lack of coaching changes in NO."

Are you saying you don't attribute any of this massive fall off in efficiency to age? What then? QB? Coach?

I could not fathom not being worried about Kamara's production going forward unless I heard some kind of rational argument as to why he will bounce back to his 2017-2020 levels of efficiency, and what held him back in 2021-2022 that will be different going forward. It would have to be a hell of an argument too as he ages past the average RB cliff this year and has legal troubles/suspension looming in immediate future, with his downside being below the basement if it goes wrong in criminal court.

Yeah, I read your post before. I put the changes in his production primarily on the changes around him. Going from Brees' savviness to Winston's disinclinationn to check down hurt a ton. Can't ignore the impact of losing Payton, or the 2022 QB/scheme combo (Dalton/Carmichael) for some reason not involving him in the passing game. Check how many 2022 games he had three or fewer targets.

I'm not saying he'll ever return to his previous highs in value/production or that his age is irrelevant. But the current situation/concern is artificially depressing his production. Put him in a situation that better uses his abilities (a shame SF has their lead back now) and he can be more productive than his recent years. Ignoring cap for the moment, LAR, Detroit or Dallas would be good spots.

[thebeast]

Might as well hold or get out while you can. Kamara's market value is falling almost as fast as FTX did.

I guess if your into penny stocks you try to buy for a very late pick.

I have to agree. I made a killing taking advantage of owner worry in the cases of Tyreek, Watson, and Ridley, probably gaining 3 1sts worth of value overall on the team in my sig by buying low when panic was at its peak.

Around now, or over the next few months, is when that panic buy period would normally be, but in Kamara’s case his age and his decreased production and efficiency year over year really puts me off.

Taysom Hill is definitely still in NO in 2023 with his massive dead cap - but could be gone after that with outs over the final few years of his contract. He will continue to vulture work, especially goal line, even if Kamara is only suspended 4-6 games.

And speaking of a likely suspension, the Saints would almost definitely be looking to add another capable RB to that room. Does Kamara ever see enough touches again at his reduced efficiency to be elite per game? Odds do not seem good.

Watson and Ridley?

[dondickenson]

Might as well hold or get out while you can. Kamara's market value is falling almost as fast as FTX did.

I guess if your into penny stocks you try to buy for a very late pick.

I have to agree. I made a killing taking advantage of owner worry in the cases of Tyreek, Watson, and Ridley, probably gaining 3 1sts worth of value overall on the team in my sig by buying low when panic was at its peak.

Around now, or over the next few months, is when that panic buy period would normally be, but in Kamara’s case his age and his decreased production and efficiency year over year really puts me off.

Taysom Hill is definitely still in NO in 2023 with his massive dead cap - but could be gone after that with outs over the final few years of his contract. He will continue to vulture work, especially goal line, even if Kamara is only suspended 4-6 games.

And speaking of a likely suspension, the Saints would almost definitely be looking to add another capable RB to that room. Does Kamara ever see enough touches again at his reduced efficiency to be elite per game? Odds do not seem good.

Watson and Ridley?

Tyreek I got for Dante Pettis plus 1.10 when he was in middle of saga beating his child etc. I got told that I way overpaid here. Once he was back and producing for a year I sold Tyreek for Higgins + 1st. 1st ended up 1.04 and netted me Chase.

Got Ridley and a 2nd for Sutton while Ridley was suspended. 2nd ended up as 2.02 and got Pickens.

Got Watson + 3rd for 2nd in 1QB. Sold Watson + 2nd for Rhamondre to bolster championship run and won.

Overall traded Pettis, Sutton, 1st, 2nd, 2nd for Tyreek, Ridley, Watson, 2nd, 3rd at their lowest values. Upon flipping Tyreek and Watson ended up with Chase, Higgins, Ridley, Pickens, Rhamondre, 3.07 this season.

Anyway, the point is I don't think there is value to be had buying Kamara for a 2nd here, either with production in your lineup or to flip for more later. He'll never be worth a 1st again imo.

[dondickenson]

If I believed Kamara's production/efficiency issues were due to age, I'd decline to buy. But, I put it more on the scheme and/or situation. The OC stayed but maybe they get a QB upgrade. They do have RB depth issues, but as long as they don't bring in a back proficient as a receiver, I wouldn't be worried.

I posted this early on in this thread:

"Kamara has slowly degraded over his six year career. First two seasons he averaged 5.2ypc and had 31TDs. Next two seasons 4.9ypc and 27 TDs. Last two seasons 3.8ypc and 13 TDs. And those 13 TDs came on over 100 more touches in years 5-6 than he got in years 1-2. He has slowed down a lot last two seasons. Can hardly expect that trajectory to change at age 28 with his legal troubles looming and lack of coaching changes in NO."

Are you saying you don't attribute any of this massive fall off in efficiency to age? What then? QB? Coach?

I could not fathom not being worried about Kamara's production going forward unless I heard some kind of rational argument as to why he will bounce back to his 2017-2020 levels of efficiency, and what held him back in 2021-2022 that will be different going forward. It would have to be a hell of an argument too as he ages past the average RB cliff this year and has legal troubles/suspension looming in immediate future, with his downside being below the basement if it goes wrong in criminal court.

Yeah, I read your post before. I put the changes in his production primarily on the changes around him. Going from Brees' savviness to Winston's disinclinationn to check down hurt a ton. Can't ignore the impact of losing Payton, or the 2022 QB/scheme combo (Dalton/Carmichael) for some reason not involving him in the passing game. Check how many 2022 games he had three or fewer targets.

I'm not saying he'll ever return to his previous highs in value/production or that his age is irrelevant. But the current situation/concern is artificially depressing his production. Put him in a situation that better uses his abilities (a shame SF has their lead back now) and he can be more productive than his recent years. Ignoring cap for the moment, LAR, Detroit or Dallas would be good spots.

Hmm. Dont think Brees or Payton are coming back in the door. More likely a Carr level QB and Dennis Allen at HC when this season starts.

Taysom and Kamara are stuck with their contracts for at least 2023 in NO, and Kamara's contract is unappealing as a trade target for any NFL team. It is significantly worse than McCaffrey's contract, who got a massive signing bonus and has flat yearly base and no dead cap going forward. Kamara is to be paid over $10m more cash than CMC in the next 3 years and has $30m in cumuluative dead cap.

So I guess that his best scenario to get in a better situation would be to survive his legal troubles, play out 2023 in a bad NO situation, and then get cut and allowed to sign somewhere else in FA at 29. Right?

I'm just not sold by this.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I could see him regaining efficiency if he moved to a better offense a la CMC, but I also think there's a real possibility he's played his last down. I imagine his attorneys are going to try to get a plea with no jail time.

[Pullo Vision]

I posted this early on in this thread:

"Kamara has slowly degraded over his six year career. First two seasons he averaged 5.2ypc and had 31TDs. Next two seasons 4.9ypc and 27 TDs. Last two seasons 3.8ypc and 13 TDs. And those 13 TDs came on over 100 more touches in years 5-6 than he got in years 1-2. He has slowed down a lot last two seasons. Can hardly expect that trajectory to change at age 28 with his legal troubles looming and lack of coaching changes in NO."

Are you saying you don't attribute any of this massive fall off in efficiency to age? What then? QB? Coach?

I could not fathom not being worried about Kamara's production going forward unless I heard some kind of rational argument as to why he will bounce back to his 2017-2020 levels of efficiency, and what held him back in 2021-2022 that will be different going forward. It would have to be a hell of an argument too as he ages past the average RB cliff this year and has legal troubles/suspension looming in immediate future, with his downside being below the basement if it goes wrong in criminal court.

Yeah, I read your post before. I put the changes in his production primarily on the changes around him. Going from Brees' savviness to Winston's disinclinationn to check down hurt a ton. Can't ignore the impact of losing Payton, or the 2022 QB/scheme combo (Dalton/Carmichael) for some reason not involving him in the passing game. Check how many 2022 games he had three or fewer targets.

I'm not saying he'll ever return to his previous highs in value/production or that his age is irrelevant. But the current situation/concern is artificially depressing his production. Put him in a situation that better uses his abilities (a shame SF has their lead back now) and he can be more productive than his recent years. Ignoring cap for the moment, LAR, Detroit or Dallas would be good spots.

Hmm. Dont think Brees or Payton are coming back in the door. More likely a Carr level QB and Dennis Allen at HC when this season starts.

Taysom and Kamara are stuck with their contracts for at least 2023 in NO, and Kamara's contract is unappealing as a trade target for any NFL team. It is significantly worse than McCaffrey's contract, who got a massive signing bonus and has flat yearly base and no dead cap going forward. Kamara is to be paid over $10m more cash than CMC in the next 3 years and has $30m in cumuluative dead cap.

So I guess that his best scenario to get in a better situation would be to survive his legal troubles, play out 2023 in a bad NO situation, and then get cut and allowed to sign somewhere else in FA at 29. Right?

I'm just not sold by this.

Looking purely at stats and usage, losing Brees hurt, way more than I imagined it would. That's depressing but also reason for optimism- we know why it broke and know how to fix it. If Kamara gets with a QB willing to check it down, and a scheme that calls for him to use him right, he can rebound. Pairing with the right QB can be hard but it's possible.

One of the real disappointing things in 2022 for me was Carmichael. He's been in NO for years, knew Payton's scheme/process, knew how to use Kamara... and yet didn't anyway. Really strange. Really. A guy with his knowledge and Dalton's skillset should've been a boon for Kamara. And yet, and yet, minimal passing game involvement, and reducing Kamara to an up the tackles runner living off volume. It was puzzling, but Carmichael's history is reason for optimism- maybe he returns to the previous usage.

I don't know the rules for contract restructures. There may limits of some sort (maybe negotiated by the NFLPA) in how much a player is able to renegotiate guarantees down or shift money around. If Kamara's options are continuing to be underutilized like he complained about last year (or risking that) versus the opportunity for greener pastures elsewhere, what would he choose?

Ignoring a restructure opening the opportunity to be in a better situation in 23, I think there is another way for Kamara to see a production jump this year- Carmichael gets his stuff together. He went from hot HC candidate under Payton to "wtf are you doing?!" schemer. As long as he fixes that, I don't care if Dalton is the QB or Carr. That ignores the charge against him, or the possibility of being on another team next year.

[Jigga94]

I own him on a team that's been doing very well (sort of) in spite of him. I'll probably put him on the block and see if I can use him in a package or buy back some years at RB with him + a pick. But I'm in no way selling short. I think his skillset will age fine as long as they go back to his old usage...

He's a lock to get 250+ touches as he has the past several years. 50 receptions is his floor. I think as he gets older now, his carries should be going down and receptions back up (last 2 years trended the opposite direction).

He probably gets susp 4-6 games so obviously his season totals will be down but on a per game basis, I don't think I can get a better RB2/flex for his declining price. Going to most likely be holding for the long haul and hoping he can rack up receptions in his later years and still provide solid PPR value. Think Sproles later years where he was still getting 50+ receptions, with more carries

35 Rec in 4 games Would be even higher if NE was any type of competitive this year

Still don't think they should be running him up the middle with this awful OL 15+ times a game. Why sign Jamaal and draft Kendre?

[Jigga94]

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 7272101934

[Jigga94]

This dudes automatic