Rebuilding: When do you know you’ve failed?

[ThirdWW]

For those who have unsuccessfully rebuilt your teams, when did you know it didn’t work out and what did you do to turn it around. I know it takes a bit of luck, but what other than that? Did you turn players quickly or did you settle in and bear the cold winter?

Yes, teams are in sig. No, not looking for specific advice.

[hoos89]

You don't necessarily know at any point that it has failed (unless it's gone REALLY south). I think you just keep making trades for value until you feel you've accumulated enough value to compete, then at some point make a couple of more deals to contend (e.g. acquire a couple players like Keenan, Evans or Conner) and go from there.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

For those who have unsuccessfully rebuilt your teams, when did you know it didn’t work out and what did you do to turn it around. I know it takes a bit of luck, but what other than that? Did you turn players quickly or did you settle in and bear the cold winter?

Yes, teams are in sig. No, not looking for specific advice.

I had a terrible team going for 5+ years. Every year I thought it would be different and it never was. I think what turned it around for me was I tracked the leagues drafting history and realized I never had that many 2nd and 3rd round picks (common dynasty wisdom will tell you they are near worthless), however I was looking at the players drafted in those rounds and there are a lot more hits than people realize. I changed my strategy to avoid trading up and consolidating picks, I stopped trading multiple 1sts for a single player no matter how good they were, and idk if it was a coincidence but my team starting doing a lot better. I started trying to get “more shots” in trades. So if I trade 1 player, I want 2 shots coming back, either as players or draft picks. I also stopped drafting only “my guys” and made a concerted effort to vary who I drafted with my rookie picks, as who does or doesn’t hit in the nfl is at least 50% random chance. Drafting the same player in the 1st round on all your teams can really sink you if they don’t hit for whatever reason (skill, injury, headcase). In SF I also stopped placing a ton of importance on the QB position. Just give me a bunch of guys with a pulse and I’ll start them. You can always get a decent starter for “cheap”. I won a league last year stating Kenny Pickett as my sole qb. I started cutting bait with rookie wrs if they didn’t hit their rookie season (see the rookie wr production thread). Anyway my team that set the bar for terribleness actually made the playoffs last year and is on track to make the playoffs this year as well. Basically, you have to unlearn everything that people tell you to do in dynasty.

[CGW]

What do you mean by fail?

Rebuilds don't fail, they just take longer. The only way you can fail at a rebuild is by continually buying assets that are declining in value for your own firsts, which puts you into perpetual rebuild. Or just be a really bad drafter.

I made the conscious decision to actually rebuild my rosters the last year or two rather than just semi rebuild. I sold absolutely everything that wasn't included in my long term plans (ie anything that I didn't think could increase in value while not hurting my chances for 1.01) and picked up whatever draft capital I could and sometimes injured players. Commit to the 1.01. The 1.01 generally is your absolute best chance to hit on an asset in the draft, or will bring you a ton of capital if you decide to trade it. Think Bijan, Chase, etc in 1QB or Lawrence, Murray, Burrow, in 2QB. These are foundational players. Don't fool around and end up in the middle of the pack.

[Cameron Giles]

I think if you're not seeing some sort of progress after two draft cycles, then you might be in trouble.

If you want to push it to three, then you're definitely screwed. Why? Because every three years, there's at least one star-studded or mega-hyped draft class that reshapes dynasty. If you have nothing to show from that, then....yeah.

Obviously tanking for the 1.01 is the easiest way up, but look at the players available from 1.02-1.05 in the past couple of drafts

2023: Jordan Addison, Devon Achane, Zay Flowers,
2022: Ken Walker, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave
2021: Travis Etienne, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith
2020: Ceedee Lamb, Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson

There's always so much focus on getting the 1.01, but you can still get stud players right after that can make you a long-term contender.

[Jrblaha]

To me failing in a rebuild means you consistently don’t finish in a money place (this is expected) and your team is consistently less valuable than the year before (this is not expected).

In a rebuild you should be trading declining assets that can produce this year for ascending assets that won’t produce as well in the short term. You’re gonna miss on these sometimes. But if you do it long enough you should eventually hit on some of these trades and draft picks to where your team has an ascending value trajectory.

In theory your team value eventually becomes high enough you can win money, and then you flip your strategy to try to win.

The ideal world is to finish very low with your own draft picks or finish very high without your own draft picks. Live on the end extremes as much as possible (very good or very bad, but always start your best lineup possible).

[Jrblaha]

And when / how to pivot, I think it’s hard to explain without specifics. But answering why the rebuild is failing? (will help you). What’s keeping the team from getting more valuable the next year? Then you can make adjustments.

My signature team below I tried to rebuild last year. I traded away players for picks. I somehow made the playoffs and then went to buy mode and bought cheap RBs and won it all. This year I’m 1-2 and will likely be rebuilding towards next year. Staying flexible is also important