Rookie RB beyond the top 4

[Cameron Giles]

Zach Moss made ppl miss and Andre Williams ran ppl over. Neither was an athlete. Roschon looked meh to me plus he’s a converted QB with limited career touches. When does that ever work?

Kareem Hunt and Josh Jacobs ran people over too. Neither were athletes. Let's not act like RBs who break tackle and win off contact are not effective anymore.

Jacobs was a first round pick and Hunt instantly took over the KC backfield. Johnson isn’t in that sort of conversation.

We're not talking about opportunity though. The discussion was about play style and how that translates.

The point isn't that he's as good as Josh Jacobs coming into the league, because that wouldn't make sense. The point is that from a simple perspective, both of those players succeed in the same type of way that Johnson does or aspires to succeed. Obviously, you can find trivial differences otherwise, but that style is his lane.

Hunt is squarely reliant on getting yards after contact and making defenders miss in whatever way he can. He has no long speed and is not known as being tops in terms of stop and start ability. Kareem Hunt ranks in missed tackles forced and yards after contact per carry (PFF)

2017: 4th, 13th
2018: 4th, 11th
2019: 1st, 41st
2020: 28th, 14th
2021: 3rd, 12th
...
2022: 40th, 38th

Not a surprise the year he regressed heavily in both is the year he's struggling to find a good situation. But again, these types of backs still succeed in the league.

[Bronco Billy]

Zach Moss made ppl miss and Andre Williams ran ppl over. Neither was an athlete. Roschon looked meh to me plus he’s a converted QB with limited career touches. When does that ever work?

Kareem Hunt and Josh Jacobs ran people over too. Neither were athletes. Let's not act like RBs who break tackle and win off contact are not effective anymore.

You lost me there. I assume you rely solely on metrics in tees and shorts and just ignore play on the field in pads.

[Cameron Giles]

You lost me there. I assume you rely solely on metrics in tees and shorts and just ignore play on the field in pads.

I'm doing both. I've already talked about play style and how all of these RBs can break tackles, play off contact, and make defenders miss despite not being fast or tops in change of direction ability.

If you want to talk metrics in tees:

40yd/10yd/Vert/Broad/Speed Score/BMI

Josh Jacobs: 4.64 / 1.6 / 35 / 112 / 94.9 / 31.6
Kareem Hunt: 4.62 / N/A / 36.5 / 119 / 94.8 / 31
Rosc Johnson: 4.58 / 1.52 / 31.5 / 122 / 99.5 / 29.6

Again, it's not to say that Johnson = Josh Jacobs, because that's not the case. It's merely saying that the play style of these types of backs still succeeds in the NFL.

[FantasyFreak]

Jacobs and Hunt didn't have the same play style in their primes, as Roschon, though. Just because Jacobs can run through tackles doesn't mean their styles are the same. Jacobs cutting ability is a lot better than Roschon's. Roschon doesn't have the same type of burst and agility on a football field. The comparison ends after saying they can both run through tackles. The reason Jacobs has success is because of a bunch of factors, not just running through tackles. That's one of them. Roschon doesn't have close to the versatility in his game.

[Cameron Giles]

Jacobs and Hunt didn't have the same play style in their primes, as Roschon, though. Just because Jacobs can run through tackles doesn't mean their styles are the same. Jacobs cutting ability is a lot better than Roschon's. Roschon doesn't have the same type of burst and agility on a football field. The comparison ends after saying they can both run through tackles. The reason Jacobs has success is because of a bunch of factors, not just running through tackles. That's one of them. Roschon doesn't have close to the versatility in his game.

Go back to each of their draft profiles.

Jacobs:

Gather and cut is slightly exaggerated. Struggles to slow, gather and cut beyond second level

Hunt:

Can elude initial tackle but struggles to accelerate after redirecting his feet. Average explosion traits

Johnson:

Trouble reaccelerating when feet are forced to slow

Each of them had questions the type of agility they have or change of direction/stop-start. You tack on that they all have very similar draft measurements and testing, on top of the high rate of yards after contract and elusive rating, and it's pretty easy to see why the play style is in the same lane. Jacobs doesn't win any other way. He doesn't have the speed to do it and he's not in another league athletically. Better player?

Ultimately, Jacobs is one of the best cases of this type of play style. You can name other backs outside of him and Hunt like Chris Carson and David Montgomery who do very well too. Either way, the play style still works in today's NFL and naming players like Zack Moss and Andre Williams isn't a complete picture of that type of back.

[Ice]

Jacobs and Hunt didn't have the same play style in their primes, as Roschon, though. Just because Jacobs can run through tackles doesn't mean their styles are the same. Jacobs cutting ability is a lot better than Roschon's. Roschon doesn't have the same type of burst and agility on a football field. The comparison ends after saying they can both run through tackles. The reason Jacobs has success is because of a bunch of factors, not just running through tackles. That's one of them. Roschon doesn't have close to the versatility in his game.

Agree

Some RB’s have great vision and anticipation others not so much.

Jacobs processes information like an elite QB.

[killer_of_giants]

Jacobs and Hunt didn't have the same play style in their primes, as Roschon, though.

for real!

[Bronco Billy]

Jacobs and Hunt didn't have the same play style in their primes, as Roschon, though. Just because Jacobs can run through tackles doesn't mean their styles are the same. Jacobs cutting ability is a lot better than Roschon's. Roschon doesn't have the same type of burst and agility on a football field. The comparison ends after saying they can both run through tackles. The reason Jacobs has success is because of a bunch of factors, not just running through tackles. That's one of them. Roschon doesn't have close to the versatility in his game.

Go back to each of their draft profiles.

Jacobs:

Gather and cut is slightly exaggerated. Struggles to slow, gather and cut beyond second level

Hunt:

Can elude initial tackle but struggles to accelerate after redirecting his feet. Average explosion traits

Johnson:

Trouble reaccelerating when feet are forced to slow

Each of them had questions the type of agility they have or change of direction/stop-start. You tack on that they all have very similar draft measurements and testing, on top of the high rate of yards after contract and elusive rating, and it's pretty easy to see why the play style is in the same lane. Jacobs doesn't win any other way. He doesn't have the speed to do it and he's not in another league athletically. Better player?

Ultimately, Jacobs is one of the best cases of this type of play style. You can name other backs outside of him and Hunt like Chris Carson and David Montgomery who do very well too. Either way, the play style still works in today's NFL and naming players like Zack Moss and Andre Williams isn't a complete picture of that type of back.

Those are terrible takes on Hunt and Jacobs and were not reflective of their tape predraft (IMO of course, but their NFL careers showed matching traits to their predraft stuff,).

[Menace2010]

And look at the associated prospect grades and draft capital, and PFF grades. I'm rooting for Roschon, but those are dismal ratings. He's a hope and a prayer.

[FantasyFreak]

Jacobs and Hunt didn't have the same play style in their primes, as Roschon, though. Just because Jacobs can run through tackles doesn't mean their styles are the same. Jacobs cutting ability is a lot better than Roschon's. Roschon doesn't have the same type of burst and agility on a football field. The comparison ends after saying they can both run through tackles. The reason Jacobs has success is because of a bunch of factors, not just running through tackles. That's one of them. Roschon doesn't have close to the versatility in his game.

Agree

Some RB’s have great vision and anticipation others not so much.

Jacobs processes information like an elite QB.

Yep. I didn't even include vision, but Jacobs has top notch vision. He's able to anticipate blocking, and set players up. He's thinking multiple steps ahead, and reads all 3 levels of the field. Not all RB"s can or do.

[Cameron Giles]

And look at the associated prospect grades and draft capital, and PFF grades. I'm rooting for Roschon, but those are dismal ratings. He's a hope and a prayer.

Johnson had an 80+ PFF rushing grade in each of his four seasons. How is that dismal?

[Menace2010]

And look at the associated prospect grades and draft capital, and PFF grades. I'm rooting for Roschon, but those are dismal ratings. He's a hope and a prayer.

Johnson had an 80+ PFF rushing grade in each of his four seasons. How is that dismal?

Misspoke, Next Gen Stats grade. 67 isn't good.

[j4pac]

4th round RB for a reason. I just don’t buy it. His ceiling is Brian Robinson…a guy who could be solid but is limited and a guy always on the verge of being replaced.

[Bronco Billy]

UT RBs were difficult to evaluate. Their run blocking on the Oline was just dominant outside of the games against ‘Bama and TCU. The size of the holes were huge and the O linemen were getting to the second and even third levels with multiple players on a regular basis. You really have to watch a lot of tape to find NFL level situations that Robinson and Johnson had to respond to and then assess their ability transfer to the next level. It cloaked weaknesses of both RBs, but most especially Johnson’s.

[Pullo Vision]

And look at the associated prospect grades and draft capital, and PFF grades. I'm rooting for Roschon, but those are dismal ratings. He's a hope and a prayer.

Johnson had an 80+ PFF rushing grade in each of his four seasons. How is that dismal?

Misspoke, Next Gen Stats grade. 67 isn't good.

Are you ignoring/disregarding the PFF grade? This is the first time I've heard NextGen stats used to prop up or dismiss a prospect.