We're all sleeping on Michael Pittman

[Kurtrambis1]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

I sold him this off-season because of the ARich pick. If Minshew starts for the first 2-3 weeks I could see a spike in value for Pittman.

[Bronco Billy]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Now make one of your thresholds completion percentage at the college level and see how many of those 26 completed less than 55% of their passes at the college level and then supported a WR3+ in their rookie year. (Or to actually make it meaningful maybe try to see if completion percentage or QBR in college made a difference in how those 26 supported WRs at the various levels in their rookie year, since I’m guessing a career college comp % lower than 55% is a very small universe).

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Gross.

[dynastyninja]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Who was the WR1? Steve Smith with Cam Newton?

[Ray Finkle]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Who was the WR1? Steve Smith with Cam Newton?

Reggie Wayne with ol Neck Beard in 2012?

[Anteaters]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Great information! thanks

[Anteaters]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Who was the WR1? Steve Smith with Cam Newton?

Reggie Wayne with ol Neck Beard in 2012?

I immediately thought of Russ Wilson. Looking back at the season's stats, Russ started 16/16 games, had a 64% completion pct, and passed for 3100yds/26TDs. Unfortunately, his two best WRs combined for T12WR stats, but individually both fell well short.

[trc]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion with those numbers.

[Jigga94]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

Who was the WR1? Steve Smith with Cam Newton?

Reggie Wayne with ol Neck Beard in 2012?

Ding ding ding.

I thought of Herbert/KAllen but he was WR13 in PPR

[Ray Finkle]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion with those numbers.

I’m sure he realizes it’s not actually a 50/50 chance. He just generalized half of the rookie QBs supporting a top 36 WR while not considering a butt load of factors lol…factors like JDowns being Indy’s #1

[Shoreline Steamers]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion with those numbers.

I was actually thinking the same thing. As the numbers indicate 20/26 rookie QB's supported a WR inside the top 36. Unless this is accounting for the possibility that someone other than Pittman hits that metric.

[mild]

I like Pittman. He’s a really good player but I think he’s good enough that the Colts will likely try to resign. I have very little interest in holding a WR on a bottom 5 passing offense.

I'm not going to do battle with Pullo's Rookie QB stats, as I definitely agree that Pittman has the odds stacked against him this year with AR getting broken in.

*However.*

One of the best pieces of offseason content I've consumed thus far is JJ Zachariason's study on how Read-Option offenses are affecting target distribution, by the very nature of how they are designed. Remember: this is all pretty new data, with the rise of offenses like the Eagles, Falcons, and the new kids on the block this year in the Bears and Colts (and whoever else joins the party).

The basic thesis is this: by the very nature of the RPO, the QB is being taught to throw to the #1 WR if it's there - or to scramble if it's not. Full field progressions are not happening on these plays, and as a result, the target tree is getting condensed to a massive degree - because the options are no longer "find the open 3rd option" - it's either "top pass catcher that the play is designed for gets a target" OR the QB runs, and no target.

This means that the target tree is drastically shrinking for these RPO offenses - and we see that with Pittman's new HC last year with the Eagles, where AJB, Devonta, and to a lesser extent Goedart - were the only targets of true note for the Eagles. JJZ gets into that on his pod with the full numbers if you're curious.

If you're all in on Fields or Richardson going forward - then the best advice I can give you is to get in on the stack and double down on your bet - and to ride this current wave of negativity surrounding their #1 options to get a cheap purchase. They might never learn how to pass properly... but I can almost guarantee that they are going to get their #1 WR's hyper-targeted this year, by the very nature of what their bread-and-butter RPO plays are designed to do.

[Ruggenater]

Since 2012, 26 rookie QBs have started 10+ games (per Rewind). The results of the best WR finishes from those teams-
-1 WR finish in the top 12
-6 finished inside the top 24
-13 finished inside the top 36

If ARich starts 10+ games, there's a 50% chance Pittman is outside the top 36 among WRs.

I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion with those numbers.

I was actually thinking the same thing. As the numbers indicate 20/26 rookie QB's supported a WR inside the top 36. Unless this is accounting for the possibility that someone other than Pittman hits that metric.

I read it as 13 of 26 were top 36 (50%). Of those 13, 6 managed top 24. Of those 6, 1 made it to top 12.

So:
1 top 12
An additional 5 between 13 and 24
An additional 7 between 25 and 36

[Bronco Billy]

I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion with those numbers.

I was actually thinking the same thing. As the numbers indicate 20/26 rookie QB's supported a WR inside the top 36. Unless this is accounting for the possibility that someone other than Pittman hits that metric.

I read it as 13 of 26 were top 36 (50%). Of those 13, 6 managed top 24. Of those 6, 1 made it to top 12.

So:
1 top 12
An additional 5 between 13 and 24
An additional 7 between 25 and 36

That’s the way I saw it also. A top 12 WR is also in the top 24 and top 36. Which means half of the rookie starters couldn’t support even a WR3.

[Pullo Vision]

I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion with those numbers.

I was actually thinking the same thing. As the numbers indicate 20/26 rookie QB's supported a WR inside the top 36. Unless this is accounting for the possibility that someone other than Pittman hits that metric.

I read it as 13 of 26 were top 36 (50%). Of those 13, 6 managed top 24. Of those 6, 1 made it to top 12.

So:
1 top 12
An additional 5 between 13 and 24
An additional 7 between 25 and 36

Yes, can be phrased in different ways.

I like Pittman. He’s a really good player but I think he’s good enough that the Colts will likely try to resign. I have very little interest in holding a WR on a bottom 5 passing offense.

I'm not going to do battle with Pullo's Rookie QB stats, as I definitely agree that Pittman has the odds stacked against him this year with AR getting broken in.

*However.*

One of the best pieces of offseason content I've consumed thus far is JJ Zachariason's study on how Read-Option offenses are affecting target distribution, by the very nature of how they are designed. Remember: this is all pretty new data, with the rise of offenses like the Eagles, Falcons, and the new kids on the block this year in the Bears and Colts (and whoever else joins the party).

The basic thesis is this: by the very nature of the RPO, the QB is being taught to throw to the #1 WR if it's there - or to scramble if it's not. Full field progressions are not happening on these plays, and as a result, the target tree is getting condensed to a massive degree - because the options are no longer "find the open 3rd option" - it's either "top pass catcher that the play is designed for gets a target" OR the QB runs, and no target.

This means that the target tree is drastically shrinking for these RPO offenses - and we see that with Pittman's new HC last year with the Eagles, where AJB, Devonta, and to a lesser extent Goedart - were the only targets of true note for the Eagles. JJZ gets into that on his pod with the full numbers if you're curious.

If you're all in on Fields or Richardson going forward - then the best advice I can give you is to get in on the stack and double down on your bet - and to ride this current wave of negativity surrounding their #1 options to get a cheap purchase. They might never learn how to pass properly... but I can almost guarantee that they are going to get their #1 WR's hyper-targeted this year, by the very nature of what their bread-and-butter RPO plays are designed to do.

One of the things I've been debating is if Pittman or Pierce would be favored in an RPO ARich offense. Do you recall if there has been any discussion on the WR archetype being featured as the #1 WR in this "first read or run" scheme?