Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Cameron Giles]

Just my thoughts. Talked about and highly regarded aren’t the same as actually showing you can put up the season. Also I’m not factoring in combine, advanced metrics, etc. I’m talking about showing you can dominate in college Addison and tucker imo were the only ones who showed they could be dominant in that list in their sophomore season. 2023 was the hype golden child. If everybody was right, there would be no winners. Sometimes the masses are more wrong than right. Probably most of the time.

I do appreciate your thoughts though, just my point of view. I usually get bleep for my takes. IE Saying Calvin Ridley was really good , saying cmc was better than mixon, and saying Kenneth Walker was going to be really food( this one got some hurdles recently)

This isn't true.

- Boutte broke out as a freshman.
- Johnston broke out as a freshman.
- Mims broke out as a freshman.
- Mayer has been the best TE in college the last two years and was an early declare
- JSN dominated as a sophomore.
- Bigsby's best season is his freshman season.
- Corum popped as a sophomore and picked up where he left off as a junior.
- Downs broke out as a sophomore.

I could keep going. 23 was a loaded class on paper with good college players heading into the declare year. You could roll off a deep list of players who all had chances to have Day 1-2 DC. Saying that 24 has more players who've "dominated" going into the declare year just isn't true. We were literally at this same point last year.

I can name a bunch of good college players from this class that I'm keeping an eye on, but it doesn't mean they are necessarily strong NFL prospects. If you're saying players like Troy Franklin and Donovan Edwards have already dominated, then it's hard to take that seriously.

The only thing that is true is that Harrison, Bowers, and Williams make this class more top heavy in terms of anticipating studs with unicorn potential. 23 didn't have that outside of Bijan.

[spotxc]

@fantasyfreak lol
Boutte may have broken out as a freshman but disappointed as a sophmore
Johnston freshman and sophmore years are pretty underwhelming
Mims never really picked up where he left off, sub optimal sophmore year
The TE class I agree on as being better
JSN was the heralded prospect that kept 2023 so golden, but unfortunately he had bad luck also
Bibsby like others disappointed as a sophmore even though he went for more yards as he averaged (4.9 ypc that year )
Corum was a reason for the 2023 class to be good
Downs was just so undersized but I agree he was a good prospect a year out

I think my biggest thing was a lot of the 23 class didn't bring the follow up sophmore year which is important to me. To me the top was always good in 23, but I didn't see the surefire depth everyone did. The 24 class has had a lot of really good sophmore years. That to me is more gives me more faith in them

[Cameron Giles]

@fantasyfreak lol
Boutte may have broken out as a freshman but disappointed as a sophmore
Johnston freshman and sophmore years are pretty underwhelming
Mims never really picked up where he left off, sub optimal sophmore year
The TE class I agree on as being better
JSN was the heralded prospect that kept 2023 so golden, but unfortunately he had bad luck also
Bibsby like others disappointed as a sophmore even though he went for more yards as he averaged (4.9 ypc that year )
Corum was a reason for the 2023 class to be good
Downs was just so undersized but I agree he was a good prospect a year out

I think my biggest thing was a lot of the 23 class didn't bring the follow up sophmore year which is important to me. To me the top was always good in 23, but I didn't see the surefire depth everyone did. The 24 class has had a lot of really good sophmore years. That to me is more gives me more faith in them

I think the overall point is that what you do in your sophomore season, while meaningful, isn't going to determine your draft capital as much as what happens in your declare year and at the combine. There were a lot of very promising sophomore seasons for the 23 class, but the follow-ups were not as strong and it led to worse DC for some players.

I don't think this class is further along at all a few months away from the college season beginning. I'd say it's essentially at the same point as a typical class

[Pullo Vision]

I think my biggest thing was a lot of the 23 class didn't bring the follow up sophmore year which is important to me.

This has been one of the interesting points I've heard on these 2024 class overview evaluations- a number of the likely 2024 prospects either didn't repeat their 2021 performance last year, didn't answer evaluator questions with their play, or created questions.

Combined with how the 23 class underperformed expectations relative to the prior year, 2022 sounds like overall it was a disappointing year for a significant number of college football players.

[Pullo Vision]

A convo about Fields got me wondering what NFL teams actually would move heaven and earth for Caleb Williams.

These are the projected 2023 starters week 1. This doesn't address that some of them like Cousins are on expiring deals.

Replace 20- Arizona (Murray), Atlanta (Ridder), Chicago (Fields), Dallas (Prescott), Denver (Wilson), Detroit (Goff), GB (Love), LAR (Stafford), Vegas (Jimmy G), Miami (Tua), Minnesota (Cousins), NE (Jones), NYG (Jones), NYJ (Rodgers), Pittsburgh (Pickett), Seattle (Smith), SF (Darnold/Lance/Purdy), Tampa (Mayfield), Tennessee (Tannehill), Washington (Howell)

Not replace 12- Baltimore (Jackson), Buffalo (Allen), Carolina (Young), Cincinnati (Burrow), Cleveland (Watson), Houston (Stroud), Indy (Richardson), Jacksonville (Lawrence), KC (Mahomes), LAC (Herbert), NO (Carr), Philadelphia (Hurts)

The Giants wouldn't take a cap hit in 2024 for cutting Jones post June 1, and that's the last year his salary is fully guaranteed. The Jets would clear 50 mil cutting Rodgers next offseason, though the trade cost for him seems to make that unlikely. Caleb on a rookie deal versus having to sign Lawrence or Herbert to a massive extension would be an interesting discussion. I don't see Cleveland moving on from Watson because of the contract, while Dallas would take just a 2.5 mil cap hit for cutting Prescott next offseason.

Arizona has 2 firsts (theirs and Houston), Chicago has 2 (theirs and Carolina's), GB and Philly each have 2 2nds. That's relevant because the NFL doesn't allow teams to trade picks multiple years in the future like the NBA.

[yinzername]

I agree with most of this. But, and without digging into the $$, I think NO would move on from Carr and re-roll no prob. And on the other end, I wouldn’t make that call on the Steelers and Bears right now. Those teams could be happy with what they got come January ‘24

[Pullo Vision]

I agree with most of this. But, and without digging into the $$, I think NO would move on from Carr and re-roll no prob. And on the other end, I wouldn’t make that call on the Steelers and Bears right now. Those teams could be happy with what they got come January ‘24

Fair point, I disregarded him for the contract he just signed, but dealt with him inconsistently compared to Rodgers. Cutting Carr before June 1st next year would cost 17 mil, but no cost (or savings) if after June 1st.

[FantasyFreak]

I agree with most of this. But, and without digging into the $$, I think NO would move on from Carr and re-roll no prob. And on the other end, I wouldn’t make that call on the Steelers and Bears right now. Those teams could be happy with what they got come January ‘24

Carr's going to be in New Orleans for 2 years, at least.

[j4pac]

I agree with most of this. But, and without digging into the $$, I think NO would move on from Carr and re-roll no prob. And on the other end, I wouldn’t make that call on the Steelers and Bears right now. Those teams could be happy with what they got come January ‘24

Carr's going to be in New Orleans for 2 years, at least.

Completely agree. I’d be shocked if they are drafting at #1, and if they are…it’ll likely be because Carr gets hurts.

[yinzername]

I agree with most of this. But, and without digging into the $$, I think NO would move on from Carr and re-roll no prob. And on the other end, I wouldn’t make that call on the Steelers and Bears right now. Those teams could be happy with what they got come January ‘24

Carr's going to be in New Orleans for 2 years, at least.

Completely agree. I’d be shocked if they are drafting at #1, and if they are…it’ll likely be because Carr gets hurts.

I don't expect them to earn the first either, but the OG questions was

what NFL teams actually would move heaven and earth for Caleb Williams.

with two pretty broad categories of teams. I think if Carr stinks, misses playoffs, they would easily move on from him. Hell he could be a backup/mentor to a young rook in a flash. I'm not sure how much they would have to move if Carr blows and they have a low/mid draft pick. Maybe go from like a 1.10 to the 1.01. But why would I be shocked to see Davis make some wild moves to snag a stud QB in the draft?

[Lumps]

A convo about Fields got me wondering what NFL teams actually would move heaven and earth for Caleb Williams.

These are the projected 2023 starters week 1. This doesn't address that some of them like Cousins are on expiring deals.

Replace 20- Arizona (Murray), Atlanta (Ridder), Chicago (Fields), Dallas (Prescott), Denver (Wilson), Detroit (Goff), GB (Love), LAR (Stafford), Vegas (Jimmy G), Miami (Tua), Minnesota (Cousins), NE (Jones), NYG (Jones), NYJ (Rodgers), Pittsburgh (Pickett), Seattle (Smith), SF (Darnold/Lance/Purdy), Tampa (Mayfield), Tennessee (Tannehill), Washington (Howell)

Not replace 12- Baltimore (Jackson), Buffalo (Allen), Carolina (Young), Cincinnati (Burrow), Cleveland (Watson), Houston (Stroud), Indy (Richardson), Jacksonville (Lawrence), KC (Mahomes), LAC (Herbert), NO (Carr), Philadelphia (Hurts)

The Giants wouldn't take a cap hit in 2024 for cutting Jones post June 1, and that's the last year his salary is fully guaranteed. The Jets would clear 50 mil cutting Rodgers next offseason, though the trade cost for him seems to make that unlikely. Caleb on a rookie deal versus having to sign Lawrence or Herbert to a massive extension would be an interesting discussion. I don't see Cleveland moving on from Watson because of the contract, while Dallas would take just a 2.5 mil cap hit for cutting Prescott next offseason.

Arizona has 2 firsts (theirs and Houston), Chicago has 2 (theirs and Carolina's), GB and Philly each have 2 2nds. That's relevant because the NFL doesn't allow teams to trade picks multiple years in the future like the NBA.

I think the replace list is being pretty generous. I suppose it could be seen as "there is some percentage chance" but highly unlikely. I bolded the ones that are more realistic either because of the current starter, likely record, or both.

Murray is the one that seems possible out of the "this seems unlikely" ones. Record is likely poor. Murray won't be playing a lot this year. New staff, new regime, etc. With Houston's pick, who won't be "good" either, if they don't land 1.1 they could use that to trade up. Problem is, one of these other teams could land it and there is zero chance they trade it.

I think limiting this to just Caleb is also a little bit of a folly. Maye will be 1.1 or 1.2 at this point. So if one of these other teams I bolded wind up with a pick or in striking distance, they aren't gonna bother going to 1.1.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I think limiting this to just Caleb is also a little bit of a folly. Maye will be 1.1 or 1.2 at this point. So if one of these other teams I bolded wind up with a pick or in striking distance, they aren't gonna bother going to 1.1.

Bingo. Everyone is focusing on Caleb, but Maye is no slouch either. Perhaps he takes a "Howell" or "Rattler" dive, but I highly doubt it. Ewers is also in the running if he returns to form.

The degree of separation between QBs this year isn't as big of a gap as '23 was. There's far less red flags amongst all top 3 compared to Bryce/Stroud. Teams will still pay up, but many won't feel the pressure to when they have a few "backup" options available.

[Cameron Giles]

I think limiting this to just Caleb is also a little bit of a folly. Maye will be 1.1 or 1.2 at this point. So if one of these other teams I bolded wind up with a pick or in striking distance, they aren't gonna bother going to 1.1.

Bingo. Everyone is focusing on Caleb, but Maye is no slouch either. Perhaps he takes a "Howell" or "Rattler" dive, but I highly doubt it. Ewers is also in the running if he returns to form.

The degree of separation between QBs this year isn't as big of a gap as '23 was. There's far less red flags amongst all top 3 compared to Bryce/Stroud. Teams will still pay up, but many won't feel the pressure to when they have a few "backup" options available.

I don't know about this. I think the gap between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye is pretty noticeable. Whereas, I think Young and Stroud were awfully close. Overall, I don't think Maye is anymore of a sure thing than Young or Stroud, but Williams lacks detrimental flaws.

After Williams and Maye, who's the third guy?

- Quinn Ewers? He was a highly ranked recruit, but he has a lot of question marks. We haven't really seen a large sample of his game. He's looked promising, but just alright so far.
- Michael Penix? 24-year-old, six-year QB.
- Bo Nix? Nope.
- Shedeur Sanders? Interesting name to watch honestly.
- Jordan Travis?

[YouMightDieTryin]

I think limiting this to just Caleb is also a little bit of a folly. Maye will be 1.1 or 1.2 at this point. So if one of these other teams I bolded wind up with a pick or in striking distance, they aren't gonna bother going to 1.1.

Bingo. Everyone is focusing on Caleb, but Maye is no slouch either. Perhaps he takes a "Howell" or "Rattler" dive, but I highly doubt it. Ewers is also in the running if he returns to form.

The degree of separation between QBs this year isn't as big of a gap as '23 was. There's far less red flags amongst all top 3 compared to Bryce/Stroud. Teams will still pay up, but many won't feel the pressure to when they have a few "backup" options available.

I don't know about this. I think the gap between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye is pretty noticeable. Whereas, I think Young and Stroud were awfully close. Overall, I don't think Maye is anymore of a sure thing than Young or Stroud, but Williams lacks detrimental flaws.

After Williams and Maye, who's the third guy?

- Quinn Ewers? He was a highly ranked recruit, but he has a lot of question marks. We haven't really seen a large sample of his game. He's looked promising, but just alright so far.
- Michael Penix? 24-year-old, six-year QB.
- Bo Nix? Nope.
- Shedeur Sanders? Interesting name to watch honestly.
- Jordan Travis?

I agree there is a gap between Williams and Maye, but I also meant I'd prefer both over Bryce/Stroud. So if a team is in #2 they aren't going to feel as obligated to sell the farm to get into #1 because they're still getting a blue chip prospect.

McCord is the next OSU QB. He'll put up gaudy numbers and fool someone.

[Lumps]

I think it’s Maye and Caleb at the top.

Ewers could be 3rd if he shows what he was showing against Alabama. He has Arch to light a fire under him and lots of people don’t understand he got hurt last year which affected his play. He also just got a 5 star WR in Johntay Cook. Worthy and Sanders are there.

OSU starter could show things and fool someone as said.
Van Dyke should still be on radars. Freshman of the year in the ACC. Gattis’ offense was horrific last year and there is a reason he got canned. But Van Dyke has traits the NFL likes, even if he isn’t a scrambler.

All that to say that I don’t think they content for the top at all. Ewers has the best chance but I don’t foresee him overtaking. I’d still guess it’s:

Caleb, Maye/Ewers, then I don’t know. Hell Rattler is still out there.