Value difference from tier 2 -> tier 3

[Jigga94]

I own 1.03 and am trying desperately to get a proven vet for it

If I can’t, sure I’ll take JSN but I’m not sold on him

He's my WR1, but he went in the back half of the first, and all the first round WR's got basically the same capital. He's kind of been put in this tier of his own, and it remains to be seen if that should be the case. I could very easily see Addison ending up the better pick.

I know I'm on an island, but I am taking Kendre Miller over Flowers and QJ, in a vacuum. I know you can move back and get him, just saying that's how I value him. I never had to pick him ahead of those guys, luckily the board was very predictable, this years class more than any I have seen in a while, was so easy predict the first 10 picks in a SF/TE premium draft.

I'm going to need you to stop all of this Kendre support until I can at least get through my drafts.

Almost posted this same thing to one your posts yesterday lol

[Ice]

I own 1.03 and am trying desperately to get a proven vet for it

If I can’t, sure I’ll take JSN but I’m not sold on him

So maybe putting more value on route running would help guide you......Just sayin

[spotxc]

Im finding it strange that people are thinking JSN is in a tier of his own and the snap 1.02/1.03 in 1qb. Like FantasyFreak said he basically has same draft capital as 3 other wrs. Which in its own is kind of a let down, because teams were obviously not enthralled with him to let him fall like that. Add in a lost year on a hamstring injury and Seattle drafting him, and I find it hard to believe hes the easy 1st wr in dynasty.

When was the last time seattle supported a 3rd wr? And they drafted charbonnet to help run even more. Something has got to give, and based off their past, its logical to predict that they will prefer to run more. Unfortunately, betting against lockett always seems like a bad choice. Who knows if he's gone next year, as he's signed until 2025. And god forbid JSN suffers another soft tissue injury this year, his value will sink much more than any other of the 1st round wrs. He looks to be surrounded by so much risk and people are holding on to whatever they can because of 2021.

[lukkynumber13]

Im finding it strange that people are thinking JSN is in a tier of his own and the snap 1.02/1.03 in 1qb. Like FantasyFreak said he basically has same draft capital as 3 other wrs. Which in its own is kind of a let down, because teams were obviously not enthralled with him to let him fall like that. Add in a lost year on a hamstring injury and Seattle drafting him, and I find it hard to believe hes the easy 1st wr in dynasty.

When was the last time seattle supported a 3rd wr? And they drafted charbonnet to help run even more. Something has got to give, and based off their past, its logical to predict that they will prefer to run more. Unfortunately, betting against lockett always seems like a bad choice. Who knows if he's gone next year, as he's signed until 2025. And god forbid JSN suffers another soft tissue injury this year, his value will sink much more than any other of the 1st round wrs. He looks to be surrounded by so much risk and people are holding on to whatever they can because of 2021.

I could care less about “Seattle supporting 3 WRs”, I’m not expecting anything from JSN for at least a year, but otherwise I pretty much co-sign with everything in your post.

It’s not like last year where London/Wilson/Olave were all taken in a bunch, but VERY high in the draft. Big difference between getting drafted at 10 and drafted in the low 20s

[FantasyFreak]

Im finding it strange that people are thinking JSN is in a tier of his own and the snap 1.02/1.03 in 1qb. Like FantasyFreak said he basically has same draft capital as 3 other wrs. Which in its own is kind of a let down, because teams were obviously not enthralled with him to let him fall like that. Add in a lost year on a hamstring injury and Seattle drafting him, and I find it hard to believe hes the easy 1st wr in dynasty.

When was the last time seattle supported a 3rd wr? And they drafted charbonnet to help run even more. Something has got to give, and based off their past, its logical to predict that they will prefer to run more. Unfortunately, betting against lockett always seems like a bad choice. Who knows if he's gone next year, as he's signed until 2025. And god forbid JSN suffers another soft tissue injury this year, his value will sink much more than any other of the 1st round wrs. He looks to be surrounded by so much risk and people are holding on to whatever they can because of 2021.

I could care less about “Seattle supporting 3 WRs”, I’m not expecting anything from JSN for at least a year, but otherwise I pretty much co-sign with everything in your post.

It’s not like last year where London/Wilson/Olave were all taken in a bunch, but VERY high in the draft. Big difference between getting drafted at 10 and drafted in the low 20s

I've been listening to a lot of podcasts over the last week or two, and everybody seems to be parroting a few themes. There's definitely an echo chamber happening in the podcast world on a few things.

As I said, I do have JSN as my WR1, but I don't think he shut be put on a pedestal above someone like Addison, and I have some different opinions on where a few RB's and WR's should be taken, compared to the industry consensus too. I'll shut up about that until Jigga94 has finished his drafts, though.

[spotxc]

I haven't really listened to many podcasts but Im curious as to the themes that are being pushed around. Mind sharing?

I think the injury thing is being overlooked, but I would be willing to bet if he suffers another soft tissue injury this year keeping him out some time, he could be labeled injury prone. That would hit his value pretty bad

[FantasyFreak]

I haven't really listened to many podcasts but Im curious as to the themes that are being pushed around. Mind sharing?

I think the injury thing is being overlooked, but I would be willing to bet if he suffers another soft tissue injury this year keeping him out some time, he could be labeled injury prone. That would hit his value pretty bad

The JSN is in a tier of his own thing. It's JSN or Gibbs. Those are the only 2 options after Bijan and the 3 QB's in a SF. Most are saying Gibbs, but there is a consensus that JSN is in this tier with Gibbs, or on his own behind Gibbs. The NFL really didn't show us they felt that way, and Addison's spot is arguably better than JSN's.

There seems to be a consensus that Charbonnet and Achane are a tier above Kendre, and I don't understand how they have come to that conclusion. Kendre got better draft capital than Achane, and though Achane's landing spot is nice, he's 27 pounds less than Kendre, and I don't know why they think there isn't a path to touches for Kendre. Kamara is likely going to be suspended, and who knows what they do with him. Jamaal is on a very modest deal, and is 28 years old, past his prime, and was never really a lead back, beyond last year, where he did have a good year, but I just don't understand why everybody has Kendre in this tier 3 of RB's.

The third is that Kincaid is a far superior prospect to any other TE, and I am not sure I believe that one either. He's definitely talented, and looks super smooth out there, but his profile has it's warts, and he was drafted less than 10 spots above the next 2 TE's.

[spotxc]

I appreciate the insight. These themes every year give me a chuckle. Like there is no difference of opinion. Justin Jefferson was like a 1.06-1.07 pick consensus. I wonder how that worked out for the 6 prospects taken ahead of him that were locks in“different tiers” .

Anyways, this year the JSN tier thing just seems even more fishy to me. Like everyone wants to believe it so bad that they won’t challenge it.

[Ice]

Comparing NFL Draft capital between 1 year and the next is pretty ridiculous when looking at 10 picks in round 1. Going 20 in this draft with 3 QB’s and 5 stud O lineman plus several high end edge types not to mention 2 top tier RB’s is understandable.

Not sure about the tier argument either but JSN should be the WR1 this year in FF based on his route acumen.

He is an incredibly difficult player to cover and will eat up targets and catches in the slot.

He has the route skills to challenge for the league lead in receptions at least once in his career IMO.

I agree he may not do a ton his rookie year but I won’t be at all surprised if he exceeds 115 targets as a rookie.

He will be a lock starter week 1 and that is why he should be drafted top 3.

He is far better than many here are giving him credit.
The tape with him doesn’t lie. Might want to revisit 2021 when he was healthy and easily the best WR on that team. He had 25 more catches and close to 600 more yards than the offensive rookie of the year in the NFL last year if memory serves.

This class may be weaker than some but JSN can really play.

[spotxc]

I agree with comparing capital between two years is unfair. But if JSN was viewed as being superior to the other wr prospects in this class, his draft position relative to theirs would have reflected that. And it really did not.

[Anteaters]

I agree with comparing capital between two years is unfair. But if JSN was viewed as being superior to the other wr prospects in this class, his draft position relative to theirs would have reflected that. And it really did not.

IMO this phenomenon is partially because ...

1)Fantasy fans often have a difficult time letting go of premature rankings. Once a player is ranked/tiered at a high level, it's very difficult for some fans to review all data and decide the earlier ranking was too high. Outside of a terrible injury or off-field reason, most enthusiastic fans of an incoming will manufacture reasons to maintain that premature too-high ranking. Even after dropping in the NFL draft and/or a horrible landing spot, those same fans will insist those facts won't affect the production of a player. This works in reverse too, as seen recently with Najee. So many fans prematurely determined Najee wasn't as naturally talented/athletic as they thought a T10 fantasy RB should be, so they ignored his draft capital and landing spot, and insisted he'd never be a fantasy RB1.

2)Fantasy fans think they are more knowledgeable than NFL coaches+scouts+GMs about which players have it. If a players we thought would probably be drafted in the T20 of the first round drops to the third round, we might be inclined to think 32 sets of coaches+scouts+GMs know less than fans, and we continue to insist the talent was think we see in that player is enough to ensure his success.

[FantasyFreak]

I agree with comparing capital between two years is unfair. But if JSN was viewed as being superior to the other wr prospects in this class, his draft position relative to theirs would have reflected that. And it really did not.

IMO this phenomenon is partially because ...

1)Fantasy fans often have a difficult time letting go of premature rankings. Once a player is ranked/tiered at a high level, it's very difficult for some fans to review all data and decide the earlier ranking was too high. Outside of a terrible injury or off-field reason, most enthusiastic fans of an incoming will manufacture reasons to maintain that premature too-high ranking. Even after dropping in the NFL draft and/or a horrible landing spot, those same fans will insist those facts won't affect the production of a player. This works in reverse too, as seen recently with Najee. So many fans prematurely determined Najee wasn't as naturally talented/athletic as they thought a T10 fantasy RB should be, so they ignored his draft capital and landing spot, and insisted he'd never be a fantasy RB1.

2)Fantasy fans think they are more knowledgeable than NFL coaches+scouts+GMs about which players have it. If a players we thought would probably be drafted in the T20 of the first round drops to the third round, we might be inclined to think 32 sets of coaches+scouts+GMs know less than fans, and we continue to insist the talent was think we see in that player is enough to ensure his success.

This is definitely the case a lot of the time.

[lukkynumber13]

In 1QB leagues, I do 100% agree that JSN is the 1.03

I just drafted him this morning in a league where I had the 1.03 after trying DESPERATELY to trade out of it

But, after no avail trading, I did take JSN at 3. He just feels like someone who should be the 1.05 or 1.06 IMO, rather than the 1.03. But, it’s likely I’m just spoiled the last couple years.

[Ice]

In 1QB leagues, I do 100% agree that JSN is the 1.03

I just drafted him this morning in a league where I had the 1.03 after trying DESPERATELY to trade out of it

But, after no avail trading, I did take JSN at 3. He just feels like someone who should be the 1.05 or 1.06 IMO, rather than the 1.03. But, it’s likely I’m just spoiled the last couple years.

I think a lot of it is that he didn't really play last year so teams are going off 2021 numbers. It could be helping him that he actually outplayed both Garrett and Olave in 2021 and they went 10 and 11 in the 1st round.

NFL teams look at positional talent within need requirements. This year elite positional talent pushed down WR's. If one actually studies the teams, the first team that could have possibly selected WR were the Patriots at 17 but there was DB many had in the top 10 sitting there.

The first WR last year went at 8 and that looked like a reach.

I do think he should be worth the pick over time but I do agree he does seem like 5 or 6 type pick some years in 1 QB leagues.

[ButtFumbleCity]

In 1QB leagues, I do 100% agree that JSN is the 1.03

I just drafted him this morning in a league where I had the 1.03 after trying DESPERATELY to trade out of it

But, after no avail trading, I did take JSN at 3. He just feels like someone who should be the 1.05 or 1.06 IMO, rather than the 1.03. But, it’s likely I’m just spoiled the last couple years.

As someone trying to trade into the top 3 I'm curious what kind of offers you were getting and what it would have taken for you to accept.