Achane>Gibbs

[nathanq42]

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

No disagreement he can be successful, it’s the part that he is greater than Gibbs that I just can’t get on board with personally.

In absolute terms Achane isnt even close, we are talking about a RB that has top 15 draft capital in an age where RBs are the least valuable they have ever been, and is on the edge of being too small for the position at the NFL level, vs a guy that went in the back half of the third that is even smaller than the first rounder, who is barely faster.

What is intriguing to me is the arbitrage between the two, one will cost you 1.02/3 the other can be had at 1.10 in most leagues.

The odds are that Gibbs is more productive for longer compared to Achane, but in terms of overall team value, I could definitely see the argument that Achane + what it would take to trade back from 1.02/3 to 1.10 could be a more valuable play.

[Cameron Giles]

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

Good stuff.

I've been beating this drum for a little while now. The easy narrative is to assume that Achane plays small and is going to be limited in the NFL, but he plays much closer to a Warrick Dunn type of small back. He also has a higher BMI than quite a few backs who've had RB1 seasons (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles).

The bonus is that he landed in an offense that values the hell out of straight line speed. He's going to be a good player and he's the type of back that doesn't need a ton of touches to really produce.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

The easy narrative is to assume that Achane plays small and is going to be limited in the NFL, but he plays much closer to a Warrick Dunn type of small back. He also has a higher BMI than quite a few backs who've had RB1 seasons (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles).

In terms of BMI, these would be the success stories in the ballpark of Achane

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
Devon Achane - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3

[Cameron Giles]

The easy narrative is to assume that Achane plays small and is going to be limited in the NFL, but he plays much closer to a Warrick Dunn type of small back. He also has a higher BMI than quite a few backs who've had RB1 seasons (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles).

In terms of BMI, these would be the success stories in the ballpark of Achane

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
Devon Achane - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3

Yep, the size narrative is an easy one to take advantage with Achane on if anyone in your league is giving it to you. He's in line size wise with some very good backs and has the same pedigree as Murray and Charles.

Not as good a player as Gibbs, but I wonder if we aren't being as high as we should be on him.

[Ice]

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

No disagreement he can be successful, it’s the part that he is greater than Gibbs that I just can’t get on board with personally.

In absolute terms Achane isnt even close, we are talking about a RB that has top 15 draft capital in an age where RBs are the least valuable they have ever been, and is on the edge of being too small for the position at the NFL level, vs a guy that went in the back half of the third that is even smaller than the first rounder, who is barely faster.

What is intriguing to me is the arbitrage between the two, one will cost you 1.02/3 the other can be had at 1.10 in most leagues.

The odds are that Gibbs is more productive for longer compared to Achane, but in terms of overall team value, I could definitely see the argument that Achane + what it would take to trade back from 1.02/3 to 1.10 could be a more valuable play.

I get what you’re saying and Maybe some drafts, but no way I would be trading out of a top 3 pick in 1 QB leagues this draft.

Reality is a real thing, And Gibbs is reality and a back with actual top 5-10 potential very early.

That upside isn’t all that easy to come by at the RB position.

That pick is really hard to get, at least in my leagues.

[austing]

Sure no one with the 1.02 is trading down but look at if the other way. If I have no first round pick and am weighing the options on getting a playmaker rb in full ppr. You have two options:

A) Give up three future firsts or top 12 receiver at this point for Gibbs
B) Give up a single future first or wr2-3 for achane

There’s a non-zero risk that Gibbs is better in real life than fantasy if they heavily utilize a rbbc which is likely. Also, every time I hear about how a rb will line up at slot because they are able to it just never seems to manifest materially in fantasy. I could be wrong though jmho.

Yes, Gibbs is clearly better in an absolute sense but it’s also very possible achane is objectively better in fantasy considering costs.

[austing]

Sure no one with the 1.02 is trading down but look at if the other way. If I have no first round pick and am weighing the options on getting a playmaker rb in full ppr. You have two options:

A) Give up three future firsts or top 12 receiver at this point for Gibbs
B) Give up a single future first or wr2-3 for achane

There’s a non-zero risk that Gibbs is better in real life than fantasy if they heavily utilize a rbbc which is likely. Also, every time I hear about how a rb will line up at slot because they are able to it just never seems to manifest materially in fantasy. I could be wrong though jmho.

Yes, Gibbs is clearly better in an absolute sense but it’s also very possible achane is objectively better in fantasy considering costs to acquire said picks.

[FantasyFreak]

The easy narrative is to assume that Achane plays small and is going to be limited in the NFL, but he plays much closer to a Warrick Dunn type of small back. He also has a higher BMI than quite a few backs who've had RB1 seasons (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles).

In terms of BMI, these would be the success stories in the ballpark of Achane

CJ2k - 27.2
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
Devon Achane - 27.8
DeMarco Murray - 28.1
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3

Wheels up, Deuce Vaughn!!! 29.8

[j4pac]

Sure no one with the 1.02 is trading down but look at if the other way. If I have no first round pick and am weighing the options on getting a playmaker rb in full ppr. You have two options:

A) Give up three future firsts or top 12 receiver at this point for Gibbs
B) Give up a single future first or wr2-3 for achane

There’s a non-zero risk that Gibbs is better in real life than fantasy if they heavily utilize a rbbc which is likely. Also, every time I hear about how a rb will line up at slot because they are able to it just never seems to manifest materially in fantasy. I could be wrong though jmho.

Yes, Gibbs is clearly better in an absolute sense but it’s also very possible achane is objectively better in fantasy considering costs.

Has there ever been a really good real life RB that hasn’t a a fantasy star?

[ericanadian]

Sure no one with the 1.02 is trading down but look at if the other way. If I have no first round pick and am weighing the options on getting a playmaker rb in full ppr. You have two options:

A) Give up three future firsts or top 12 receiver at this point for Gibbs
B) Give up a single future first or wr2-3 for achane

There’s a non-zero risk that Gibbs is better in real life than fantasy if they heavily utilize a rbbc which is likely. Also, every time I hear about how a rb will line up at slot because they are able to it just never seems to manifest materially in fantasy. I could be wrong though jmho.

Yes, Gibbs is clearly better in an absolute sense but it’s also very possible achane is objectively better in fantasy considering costs.

Has there ever been a really good real life RB that hasn’t a a fantasy star?

Maybe Kevin Faulk? Belichick sure seemed to love him and he did everything pretty well.

[Vcize]

Sure no one with the 1.02 is trading down but look at if the other way. If I have no first round pick and am weighing the options on getting a playmaker rb in full ppr. You have two options:

A) Give up three future firsts or top 12 receiver at this point for Gibbs
B) Give up a single future first or wr2-3 for achane

There’s a non-zero risk that Gibbs is better in real life than fantasy if they heavily utilize a rbbc which is likely. Also, every time I hear about how a rb will line up at slot because they are able to it just never seems to manifest materially in fantasy. I could be wrong though jmho.

Yes, Gibbs is clearly better in an absolute sense but it’s also very possible achane is objectively better in fantasy considering costs.

Has there ever been a really good real life RB that hasn’t a a fantasy star?

Jonathan Stewart might fit that a bit.

[MEuRaH]

Been thinking the past couple days that there’s a good chance that in a couple years looking back we will see that spending the 1.09 (at most) on achane gave you most of the same production as spending the 1.02 on gibbs.

Both have short-term subpar running mates who will steal goal line duties although both teams are likely to draft replacements for the 1bs down the road. Both are on dynamic up and coming offenses. Both are not 250 touch guys at 5’8 185 and 5’10’ 199.

I just think that after factoring in cost, there is no reason to get Gibbs when you can trade back and get comparable levels of production and pick up another asset in the process given the draft hype for Gibbs.

After 1.01 there is just nothing concrete in this draft. Except Johnston, he will be a stud.

Bold. Love it.

I also disagree. Gibbs is an exceptional athlete that -- if used properly -- will become a superstar in Detroit. It's a big "if", as he'll need to be used like Kamara/CMC and get 25% rushes and 80-90 targets in this offense. If that happens, Gibbs all day long. The Lions do have Montgomery for a reason, so I hope and expect that this will be the case.

I am not an Achane fan by any means. He ranks in the bottom 3% of RBs to ever be drafted in terms of height-to-weight ratio. He was running WR routes leading up to the draft, and when asked why he said "to showcase that he's not just a RB" and later said that NFL teams were asking if he would be willing to switch to WR. If he does, his value will indeed go up, but transitioning from RB to WR isn't easy.

Achane may have a spectacular run or catch-and-run or kickoff return or two in the first few weeks of the season, and that's going to get fantasy owners excited in a big way. I predict it will happen, as teams will vastly under-rate his speed. After that, NFL defense will be ready, and Achane will fall back to irrelevancy. So if you own Achane, your time to sell is week 2-3.

All a guess. Just trying to be as bold as OP. Loved the post, wanted to try to match it best I could. Kudos.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Been thinking the past couple days that there’s a good chance that in a couple years looking back we will see that spending the 1.09 (at most) on achane gave you most of the same production as spending the 1.02 on gibbs.

Both have short-term subpar running mates who will steal goal line duties although both teams are likely to draft replacements for the 1bs down the road. Both are on dynamic up and coming offenses. Both are not 250 touch guys at 5’8 185 and 5’10’ 199.

I just think that after factoring in cost, there is no reason to get Gibbs when you can trade back and get comparable levels of production and pick up another asset in the process given the draft hype for Gibbs.

After 1.01 there is just nothing concrete in this draft. Except Johnston, he will be a stud.

Bold. Love it.

I also disagree. Gibbs is an exceptional athlete that -- if used properly -- will become a superstar in Detroit. It's a big "if", as he'll need to be used like Kamara/CMC and get 25% rushes and 80-90 targets in this offense. If that happens, Gibbs all day long. The Lions do have Montgomery for a reason, so I hope and expect that this will be the case.

I am not an Achane fan by any means. He ranks in the bottom 3% of RBs to ever be drafted in terms of height-to-weight ratio. He was running WR routes leading up to the draft, and when asked why he said "to showcase that he's not just a RB" and later said that NFL teams were asking if he would be willing to switch to WR. If he does, his value will indeed go up, but transitioning from RB to WR isn't easy.

Achane may have a spectacular run or catch-and-run or kickoff return or two in the first few weeks of the season, and that's going to get fantasy owners excited in a big way. I predict it will happen, as teams will vastly under-rate his speed. After that, NFL defense will be ready, and Achane will fall back to irrelevancy. So if you own Achane, your time to sell is week 2-3.

All a guess. Just trying to be as bold as OP. Loved the post, wanted to try to match it best I could. Kudos.

what will nfl defenses do when mcdaniel's scheme opens up gaping holes for achane to run through for large gains?

[MEuRaH]

what will nfl defenses do when mcdaniel's scheme opens up gaping holes for achane to run through for large gains?

I hadn't thought of this. My post is completely destroyed! Well done!

[Patsfan86]

Achane fits a low volume role very well that’s why the Phins took him. Those guys don’t usually make great fantasy assets. Gibbs is smallish too for an RB but not as small as Achane, if Gibbs were taken in the 2nd round I’d have more concerns but he is going to be used in various ways due to draft cap alone. Achane will be a highlight king, but we all know that doesnt translate to fantasy all the time.

We all say volume is king, projecting volume is difficult but it’s very hard for me to see Achane getting anywhere near the volume Gibbs will. Even at Achanes way lower cost I don’t see it as a good move to wait for him