Yeah, I can't really disagree or quibble with your rankings. Most of these guys really belong in one of two categories:Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:07 pm Your organization here provides for more nuance. In that scheme, Pickett and Jones are my tier 1. I believe in their floor, even if I don't see a crazy high ceiling.
In the "they can be the starter the next two years if they play well" group, I'd put Purdy, Love and Ridder. Purdy may have already played well enough to be in tier 1, and I think either Rodgers or Love will be on a new team next season. Ridder may not have played enough to prove himself worthy of a starting role in 2023, nevermind 24. So, he looks more dependent on practice field stuff and interactions with the coaching staff, which are hard to unearth, nevermind quantify.
No quibbles on tiers 3 and 4, with the obvious caveat of Purdy. Tier 5 is where I'm intrigued. Do you think Wilson and Mills are finished as NFL players and can't see their value resuscitated? I have problems with Wilson from a mental makeup perspective, but how do you separate Mills' struggles through 2 years from the poor OC/scheme/weapons support he's had to date? I've seen suggestions that, if Houston takes QB at 1.2, they might trade Mills. If he's acquired as a depth play to potentially be groomed (a la Mayfield to LAR), he could see a value bump. Imagine him going to Seattle or Detroit for a 6th.
-I believe in their talent and they just need an opportunity.
-I don't believe in their talent and the opportunity doesn't matter.
Buy the first group and sell the second.
I see Mills as done. He's shown enough, I think, to stick around the NFL. One of the best 75 QBs, and they're always rostered. But I'm not seeing enough to ever project him as more than a capable back-up. Which means he'll probably start games again, but I don't want to be holding him forever in the hopes that, when he does have a few games that he's starting, I'm going everything I can *not* to start him.
And that's what I'm seeing with him, Wilson, etc. They might have okay stretches as NFL QBs, but I never want to start them. With players like that -- at all positions -- I want them off my roster. Guys whom I think will never have anything more than a minimal value increase or whom I want to constantly avoid starting clog my rosters. For instance, I dumped Jeff Wilson, Jr. right before final waivers this year in my Dynasty league. Yes, he is productive at times. But I don't think he'll ever have a real value increase and I never want him starting for me. I think there are more value-upside players and players who are more likely to have big spike weeks -- those are they guys I want in my lineup in a pinch.
So Mills is gone for me. Same with Z Wilson. He had plenty of questions coming in, has had terrible coaching early in his career, and just doesn't seem to have it. A future Baker Mayfield. Enough talent to get a couple more random opportunities in a desperate NFL, but how likely is it that (a) any fantasy team will offer something of substance for him unless he produces for a meaningful stretch, or (2) you'll ever want to start him? That's why I put in the roster-clogger tier. I just don't want to hold onto a guy like him for years for that unlikely but possible small value spike. I'd rather have someone from the list above -- or at another position -- who might have less of a chance of any value uptick but whose spike could be higher. E.g. Zappe. I'm not a huge believer, and I think he has less potential than Wilson. But if he somehow gets the starting job in N.E. next year, I think his value jump could be real.
One final note: We'll also likely know about Zappe by September or mid-year at the latest. Wilson, for instance, you're stuck holding for 2+ years to see if anything happens.
None of us wants to give up on the next Tannehill too early: a guy with early-season struggles who finds success later in his career. In most SF/2QB leagues, he was probably a free agent at some point, though. And there are soooooo many Bakers compared to the single Tanny that they become roster-cloggers for me.
I have no problem stashing QBs. At one point, I had 10 (!) on my 27-player roster (before we moved to best ball) because of the slim possibility of the value spike. From that mindset, go ahead and hold onto guys like Mills and Wilson. I came to see that I was missing out players at other positions whose value spike was far more likely.
Thanks for getting this thread started. I'm enjoying our conversation!