I just fundamentally disagree with the ”my team is not ready for bijan/Breece/insert rock solid rb prospect here” way of thinking.Bot101 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:52 pmWell that manager wont give up Olave, and he doesnt have a 1st. I didnt want to waste prime rookie Bijan before I was ready to compete. Besides, this keeps me in a prime spot to get Harrison Jr next season. Bijan would have scored enough to take me out of that sweepstakes.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:44 pmHmm, I’m not a big fan of this. If you wanted a wr, I would have went for a more proven player plus a 1st. Just spitballing, but like olave + 1st in exchange for the 1.01.Bot101 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:27 pm
Ive got 1.02, 1.05, 1.07, 1.08, 2.01, 2.02, 2.04, 2.07, 2.10 lol. JSN will be the pick at 1.02
I am kicking off a rebuild and I prefer to start building out the WRs before the RBs. Unfortunately this class has a very shallow WR class and a deep RB class. The closest thing to surefire we have is JSN this season. After him its BPA, however I do have a soft spot for QJ despite his red flags.
1) RBs values are always inflated due to scarcity. The best time to get them is when your team stinks and you can draft them. They’re impossible to trade for unless you overpay. If your team is kinda good in another year or two, suddenly you’re not in position to get an elite rb prospect anymore. So you can’t draft one and you can’t trade for one (without overpaying).
2) Mirroring point number one, you can usually get every other position mid-late 1st round or even 2nd round of your rookie drafts. Countless times have wrs, QBs and TEs drafted in the 1st round of the nfl draft been available late-1st or even 2nd round of Dynasty rookie drafts.
So in summary, elite rb talents typically go early 1st of your rookie drafts. Elite talents at other positions are often available later in your rookie drafts. So when your team stinks that is the best time to draft rbs and as your team improves that is the best time to draft the other positions. This just seems like common sense, no?
3) The single best way to jumpstart your rebuild is with a stud rb. They provide monster points and I’ve seen people rebuild very quickly when given a zeke, Saquon or JT. You can always find value at other positions to fill out your roster but RB value will ALWAYS be inflated. They are much harder to acquire than the rest of the positions.
4) I feel like your rookie draft spot is overrated. Sure, we want an earlier pick and I’m sure there is a statistical advantage. But in my experience, that advantage is not worth sabotaging your team for 1 or more years. You know what makes it harder to rebuild? Having a crappy team completely devoid of talent and equity.
5) I’m not a fan of the hit rates of rookie wrs. If you’ve followed my wr report threads at all, you know the hit rate for even the best rookies (1st rounders in the nfl draft) is only around 30% to become a stud. The hit rate for guys like bijan is far higher than that, and so are paradoxically some of the safest investments you could make on a rebuilding team where you’re trying to accrue the most value as possible.
The days of the “wait for a year 3 breakout” is over for wrs. We know that if a wr is any good, they’re likely to be very productive their rookie year. You can plug and play them even as rookies. So drafting them when your team is finally ready to compete still makes sense.
In the end, I’m not saying the trade is terrible. I just don’t agree with the rationale. For the trade to work out in your favor, you basically have to hit big on both the 1.2 and the 1.8, which is possible but unlikely, particularly in a 1qb league. I used to think the same way you do until practically everything I’ve seen in dynasty over the past 7-8 years has steered me in the other direction.
Edit: I just want to add, I’m not saying you can’t have success rebuilding the way you are. I’ve seen people win leagues in every which way possible. It’s just that in my experience it isn’t the most optimal, sensical or reliable way to do it for the reasons I outlined above.
