Will Levis

[Dynasty DeLorean]

+ Good, prototypical size
+ Good arm
+ Quick release
+ Teams like his mechanics
+ Decent mobility in the pocket
+ Competent rushing value before this season
+ Teams rave about his football IQ, work ethic, and character
+ Did reasonably well in college while not playing with much talent on offense

- Older QB prospect
- Numbers don't really blow you away
- 23 interceptions the last two seasons
- Anticipation lacks

I can definitely see why teams are interested in him. He's not a top-tier QB prospect, so situation will be very important. I think he's going to have a lot of interest from teams in that mid-range.

- Tampa Bay
- Tennessee
- Washington
- Seattle

Kind of funny how being 23 is a negative. I remember reading an article around 5 years ago that detailed how the older qb prospects hit more than the younger ones. Age 22-24 entering the league I think.

[Cameron Giles]

+ Good, prototypical size
+ Good arm
+ Quick release
+ Teams like his mechanics
+ Decent mobility in the pocket
+ Competent rushing value before this season
+ Teams rave about his football IQ, work ethic, and character
+ Did reasonably well in college while not playing with much talent on offense

- Older QB prospect
- Numbers don't really blow you away
- 23 interceptions the last two seasons
- Anticipation lacks

I can definitely see why teams are interested in him. He's not a top-tier QB prospect, so situation will be very important. I think he's going to have a lot of interest from teams in that mid-range.

- Tampa Bay
- Tennessee
- Washington
- Seattle

Kind of funny how being 23 is a negative. I remember reading an article around 5 years ago that detailed how the older qb prospects hit more than the younger ones. Age 22-24 entering the league I think.

Just looking around the league for some notable names:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow

He can definitely still hit, though 22 seems to be that sweet spot. He'll turn 24 right before his rookie season.

[ericanadian]

+ Good, prototypical size
+ Good arm
+ Quick release
+ Teams like his mechanics
+ Decent mobility in the pocket
+ Competent rushing value before this season
+ Teams rave about his football IQ, work ethic, and character
+ Did reasonably well in college while not playing with much talent on offense

- Older QB prospect
- Numbers don't really blow you away
- 23 interceptions the last two seasons
- Anticipation lacks

I can definitely see why teams are interested in him. He's not a top-tier QB prospect, so situation will be very important. I think he's going to have a lot of interest from teams in that mid-range.

- Tampa Bay
- Tennessee
- Washington
- Seattle

Kind of funny how being 23 is a negative. I remember reading an article around 5 years ago that detailed how the older qb prospects hit more than the younger ones. Age 22-24 entering the league I think.

Just looking around the league for some notable names:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow

He can definitely still hit, though 22 seems to be that sweet spot. He'll turn 24 right before his rookie season.

That’s only one side of the equation. How many 22 year old rookies are being drafted relative to 23 or 24 year old rookies? And what about those 29 year old rookies?

[j4pac]

+ Good, prototypical size
+ Good arm
+ Quick release
+ Teams like his mechanics
+ Decent mobility in the pocket
+ Competent rushing value before this season
+ Teams rave about his football IQ, work ethic, and character
+ Did reasonably well in college while not playing with much talent on offense

- Older QB prospect
- Numbers don't really blow you away
- 23 interceptions the last two seasons
- Anticipation lacks

I can definitely see why teams are interested in him. He's not a top-tier QB prospect, so situation will be very important. I think he's going to have a lot of interest from teams in that mid-range.

- Tampa Bay
- Tennessee
- Washington
- Seattle

Kind of funny how being 23 is a negative. I remember reading an article around 5 years ago that detailed how the older qb prospects hit more than the younger ones. Age 22-24 entering the league I think.

Just looking around the league for some notable names:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow

He can definitely still hit, though 22 seems to be that sweet spot. He'll turn 24 right before his rookie season.

That’s what you call sampling bias. Of course 22 year olds hit more often. But it’d be like saying most great doctors are 26 when they get through med school.

[Cameron Giles]

Kind of funny how being 23 is a negative. I remember reading an article around 5 years ago that detailed how the older qb prospects hit more than the younger ones. Age 22-24 entering the league I think.

Just looking around the league for some notable names:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow

He can definitely still hit, though 22 seems to be that sweet spot. He'll turn 24 right before his rookie season.

That’s what you call sampling bias. Of course 22 year olds hit more often. But it’d be like saying most great doctors are 26 when they get through med school.

Flesh it out more. Current starters:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford, Darnold,
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff, Z. Wilson, Dimes,
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr, Brady, Mac, Garoppolo, Ridder, Geno, Mills, Ryan
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow, Tannehill, Dalton, Heinecke, Pickett

21 and a 1st Round Pick: Lamar, Stafford, Darnold
22 and a 1st Round Pick: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff, Wilson, Dimes
23 and a 1st Round Pick: Jones, Ryan
24 and a 1st Round Pick: Burrow, Tannehill, Pickett

The players getting drafted at 21-22 in the 1st Round seem to be having the most hits.

[Cameron Giles]

Kind of funny how being 23 is a negative. I remember reading an article around 5 years ago that detailed how the older qb prospects hit more than the younger ones. Age 22-24 entering the league I think.

Just looking around the league for some notable names:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow

He can definitely still hit, though 22 seems to be that sweet spot. He'll turn 24 right before his rookie season.

That’s what you call sampling bias. Of course 22 year olds hit more often. But it’d be like saying most great doctors are 26 when they get through med school.

Yeah, it's nothing groundbreaking. People who are really good when they are young, tend to be....really good. Also, more time to learn the position.

Make no mistake though: I don't think it's a catch-all for the QB position.

[j4pac]

Just looking around the league for some notable names:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow

He can definitely still hit, though 22 seems to be that sweet spot. He'll turn 24 right before his rookie season.

That’s what you call sampling bias. Of course 22 year olds hit more often. But it’d be like saying most great doctors are 26 when they get through med school.

Flesh it out more. Current starters:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford, Darnold,
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff, Z. Wilson, Dimes,
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr, Brady, Mac, Garoppolo, Ridder, Geno, Mills, Ryan
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow, Tannehill, Dalton, Heinecke, Pickett

21 and a 1st Round Pick: Lamar, Stafford, Darnold
22 and a 1st Round Pick: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff, Wilson, Dimes
23 and a 1st Round Pick: Jones, Ryan
24 and a 1st Round Pick: Burrow, Tannehill, Pickett

The players getting drafted at 21-22 in the 1st Round seem to be having the most hits.

It’s much more likely to be coincidental based on the fact that most people get through high school at age 17-18, and college at 21-22. You might as well say that most great NFL QBs graduate HS at age 17-18. That’d also be true

[Cameron Giles]

That’s what you call sampling bias. Of course 22 year olds hit more often. But it’d be like saying most great doctors are 26 when they get through med school.

Flesh it out more. Current starters:

21 as a rookie: Lamar, Stafford, Darnold,
22 as a rookie: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff, Z. Wilson, Dimes,
23 as a rookie: Dak, Carr, Brady, Mac, Garoppolo, Ridder, Geno, Mills, Ryan
24 as a rookie: Russ, Cousins, Burrow, Tannehill, Dalton, Heinecke, Pickett

21 and a 1st Round Pick: Lamar, Stafford, Darnold
22 and a 1st Round Pick: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Fields, Rodgers, Tua, Murray, Watson, Goff, Wilson, Dimes
23 and a 1st Round Pick: Jones, Ryan
24 and a 1st Round Pick: Burrow, Tannehill, Pickett

The players getting drafted at 21-22 in the 1st Round seem to be having the most hits.

It’s much more likely to be coincidental based on the fact that most people get through high school at age 17-18, and college at 21-22. You might as well say that most great NFL QBs graduate HS at age 17-18. That’d also be true

Correct, but you also still have to be playing at a certain level, which is not a given.

Regardless, the older you are, the more urgency there is to be very good right away in the NFL. Hence the age knock on Levis, because people aren't sure if he can play at that level immediately.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Kinda got me wondering so i did a little digging. Past 25 years of 1st round QBs. I did the best I could categorizing hits and misses.

Age 21-22 group roughly the same in terms of upside and hit rate.

Age 23 group, the hits weren't even that great. Only Burrow seems to have a big upside in terms of stat padding.

Age 24 group

___________________________
Draft Age of 23-24 hit rate: 25%
Draft Age of 21-22 hit rate: 50%
___________________________


Draft Age of 24

Hits (1)
Tannehill

Misses (3)
Pennington
Akili Smith
Jim Druckenmiller

Hit Rate : 25%
Bust Rate: 75%



Draft Age of 23

Hits (6)
Joe Burrow
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer

Misses (16)
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz
EJ Manuel
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Rmasey


Hit Rate : 27%
Bust Rate: 73%



Draft Age of 22

Hits (12)
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
Kyler Murray
Tua Tagovailoa

Misses (12)
Dwayne Haskins
Paxton Lynch
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf

Unsure
Daniel Jones
Kerry Collins


Hit Rate : 50%
Bust Rate: 50%



Draft Age of 21

Hits (8)
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Michael Vick
Jared Goff

Misses (9)
Jordan Love
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Blaine Gabbert
Josh Freeman


Hit Rate: 47%
Bust Rate: 53%

[Cameron Giles]

Good signs for Young and Stroud.

Also, Anthony Richardson...