Dalvin Cook vs Austin Ekeler

[MarkoH97]

Who has the upper hand for this year? Who is better long term?

I don't see anyway Ekeler has the same year as last year given the insane TD numbers. Cook has been declining in TD production, but has still shown efficiency with the ball and should bounce back in that department this year. They are both around the same age and Ekeler has remained significantly healthier than Cook through their respective careers. So who do you prefer?

[Gator Sens]

I think Spiller will cut into Ekeler's workload a bit more than people are expecting as the year goes. He is too good to keep off the field. Cook when healthy has always been a workhorse and even with a capable backup, he does not come off the field. Cook for me this year and beyond between the two. Both are at the age and value cliff for an RB so that does not play much of a factor here.

[lt1hawk337]

I like Cook over Ekeler this year and going forward. I think Ekeler will see TD regression with Spiller taking away touches.

Cook will still be the workhorse in Minnesorta.

[ericanadian]

I’m a bit baffled that this is even a question. What changed in Minnesota? Mattison is being challenged by Nwangwu and it sounds like his role is more at risk than Cook’s. I think Mattison will hang in there, but it’s not like he’s suddenly a bigger threat to Cook. Biggest threat to Cook is injury.

[Two Cents]

I like Ekeler because I think there is potential to get similar production at a better price - this is the epitome of value. If Im buying I'd target Ekeler. If Im selling, I'd rather have Cook. Plus Cook cant stay healthy if his life depended on it.

¢¢

[MacDaddy123]

I like Ekeler because I think there is potential to get similar production at a better price - this is the epitome of value. If Im buying I'd target Ekeler. If Im selling, I'd rather have Cook. Plus Cook cant stay healthy if his life depended on it.

¢¢

Well Cook staying healthy has more to do with the fact that he gets more touches than Ekeler, because he is bigger than Ekeler.
Cook has missed 8 games the past 3 years, while Ekeler has missed 7 games in that same time-frame.

Also, in the past 3 years Cook has averaged 314 touches/season, vs. Ekeler's 223 touches/season.

Ekeler hit a career high 276 touches in 2021, and the Chargers coaching staff and Ekeler admitted that was too much of a load for his diminutive size. They drafted Spiller with hopes of keeping Ekeler's touches under 250 again in 2022.

I'd take Cook over Ekeler, just because he is the bigger back, and can handle more volume.
Both have had injury issues, as have most RB's.

[Two Cents]

I like Ekeler because I think there is potential to get similar production at a better price - this is the epitome of value. If Im buying I'd target Ekeler. If Im selling, I'd rather have Cook. Plus Cook cant stay healthy if his life depended on it.

¢¢

Well Cook staying healthy has more to do with the fact that he gets more touches than Ekeler, because he is bigger than Ekeler.
Cook has missed 8 games the past 3 years, while Ekeler has missed 7 games in that same time-frame.

Also, in the past 3 years Cook has averaged 314 touches/season, vs. Ekeler's 223 touches/season.

Ekeler hit a career high 276 touches in 2021, and the Chargers coaching staff and Ekeler admitted that was too much of a load for his diminutive size. They drafted Spiller with hopes of keeping Ekeler's touches under 250 again in 2022.

I'd take Cook over Ekeler, just because he is the bigger back, and can handle more volume.
Both have had injury issues, as have most RB's.

In 2019 Ekeler had 224 touches and produced a top 5 season in PPR leagues (about 312 points)
In 2020 Cook had 356 touches and produced a top 5 season in PPR leagues (about 336 points)

Give me the guy who does more with less. He is basically a poor mans Kamara. My point isnt that Cook isnt better, its that Ekeler is more obtainable and just as productive, thus a better value.

¢¢

[StableOfRBs]

I like Ekeler because I think there is potential to get similar production at a better price - this is the epitome of value. If Im buying I'd target Ekeler. If Im selling, I'd rather have Cook. Plus Cook cant stay healthy if his life depended on it.

¢¢

Well Cook staying healthy has more to do with the fact that he gets more touches than Ekeler, because he is bigger than Ekeler.
Cook has missed 8 games the past 3 years, while Ekeler has missed 7 games in that same time-frame.

Also, in the past 3 years Cook has averaged 314 touches/season, vs. Ekeler's 223 touches/season.

Ekeler hit a career high 276 touches in 2021, and the Chargers coaching staff and Ekeler admitted that was too much of a load for his diminutive size. They drafted Spiller with hopes of keeping Ekeler's touches under 250 again in 2022.

I'd take Cook over Ekeler, just because he is the bigger back, and can handle more volume.
Both have had injury issues, as have most RB's.

In 2019 Ekeler had 224 touches and produced a top 5 season in PPR leagues (about 312 points)
In 2020 Cook had 356 touches and produced a top 5 season in PPR leagues (about 336 points)

Give me the guy who does more with less. He is basically a poor mans Kamara. My point isnt that Cook isnt better, its that Ekeler is more obtainable and just as productive, thus a better value.

¢¢

As someone who has made an effort to acquire one or the other in multiple leagues this offseason I don't think their value is as different as you think it is. Also I think it's kind of disingenuous to compare two different seasons from concurrent players like that because of how what constitutes a "top 5" finish each year changes. Ekeler's 2019 season (especially in PPR) is buoyed by his 100+ targets and 90+ catches (which yes, I understand is not a bad thing that he had that work) but he had that sort of receiving volume almost exclusively because of Rivers. Ekeler is a great receiver out of the backfield, but his target/reception share that year had more to do with Rivers having a noodle for an arm to end his career than Ekeler being that good of a pass-catcher.

As skill position players age one of the first things to go is efficiency, Dalvin getting a bigger workload gives him a much safer floor. Add in the fact that the chargers went out of their way to add Spiller (who will likely vulture some TDs) and have Herbert now instead of Rivers (Herbert has rushed for 8 TDs in the last two seasons, Rivers rushed for 3 TDs in his 17 year career) I think there's major TD regression coming for both RBs, negative for Ekeler and positive for Cook. To me Cook is the clear better player/asset of the two.

[MacDaddy123]

At this point now I lean toward Ekeler because of Cook's shoulder problem.
Cook has had issues with shoulder dislocations. Too many dislocations can tear the labrum, which happen late November in 2021.

Since Cook did not have off-season surgery to repair the torn labrum, doctors are projecting more shoulder separations in 2022.
Given that, I'd go with Ekeler now.

[StableOfRBs]

At this point now I lean toward Ekeler because of Cook's shoulder problem.
Cook has had issues with shoulder dislocations. Too many dislocations can tear the labrum, which happen late November in 2021.

Since Cook did not have off-season surgery to repair the torn labrum, doctors are projecting more shoulder separations in 2022.
Given that, I'd go with Ekeler now.

Eh, depends on whether he rehabbed well with it or not and the extent of the tear. I had a buddy of mine when I wrestled who dislocated his shoulder (and I've dislocated mine, although he had a torn labrum and I didn't) and he still wrestled without having surgery afterwards. He wore a pretty simple brace (basically a large ace bandage) and only had an issue with it once with years of people literally yanking on his arm so I'm not overly worried about it. I'm more worried about Ekeler seeing massive regression in both rushing attempts and total TDs than I am Cook's shoulder tbh.

[Two Cents]

At this point now I lean toward Ekeler because of Cook's shoulder problem.
Cook has had issues with shoulder dislocations. Too many dislocations can tear the labrum, which happen late November in 2021.

Since Cook did not have off-season surgery to repair the torn labrum, doctors are projecting more shoulder separations in 2022.
Given that, I'd go with Ekeler now.

Eh, depends on whether he rehabbed well with it or not and the extent of the tear. I had a buddy of mine when I wrestled who dislocated his shoulder (and I've dislocated mine, although he had a torn labrum and I didn't) and he still wrestled without having surgery afterwards. He wore a pretty simple brace (basically a large ace bandage) and only had an issue with it once with years of people literally yanking on his arm so I'm not overly worried about it. I'm more worried about Ekeler seeing massive regression in both rushing attempts and total TDs than I am Cook's shoulder tbh.

But it is shown that Ekeler can still produce as much as Cook with less. Thats kind of the point Im making here. I agree that Ekelers touches and TDs will go down, I just dont think that will impact his output as much as Cooks injury history will impact (and has impacted) his output.

But thats just my ¢¢

[StableOfRBs]

At this point now I lean toward Ekeler because of Cook's shoulder problem.
Cook has had issues with shoulder dislocations. Too many dislocations can tear the labrum, which happen late November in 2021.

Since Cook did not have off-season surgery to repair the torn labrum, doctors are projecting more shoulder separations in 2022.
Given that, I'd go with Ekeler now.

Eh, depends on whether he rehabbed well with it or not and the extent of the tear. I had a buddy of mine when I wrestled who dislocated his shoulder (and I've dislocated mine, although he had a torn labrum and I didn't) and he still wrestled without having surgery afterwards. He wore a pretty simple brace (basically a large ace bandage) and only had an issue with it once with years of people literally yanking on his arm so I'm not overly worried about it. I'm more worried about Ekeler seeing massive regression in both rushing attempts and total TDs than I am Cook's shoulder tbh.

But it is shown that Ekeler can still produce as much as Cook with less. Thats kind of the point Im making here. I agree that Ekelers touches and TDs will go down, I just dont think that will impact his output as much as Cooks injury history will impact (and has impacted) his output.

But thats just my ¢¢

Typically it's the opposite, RBs like Ekeler who don't see a ton of work *need* that absurd efficiency and TD rate in order to maintain their high-level fantasy production, it's more likely that Ekeler sees a carry and TD regression that puts him in the RB 10-12 range than Cook misses enough games to take him out of the top 8 RBs

[Two Cents]

Eh, depends on whether he rehabbed well with it or not and the extent of the tear. I had a buddy of mine when I wrestled who dislocated his shoulder (and I've dislocated mine, although he had a torn labrum and I didn't) and he still wrestled without having surgery afterwards. He wore a pretty simple brace (basically a large ace bandage) and only had an issue with it once with years of people literally yanking on his arm so I'm not overly worried about it. I'm more worried about Ekeler seeing massive regression in both rushing attempts and total TDs than I am Cook's shoulder tbh.

But it is shown that Ekeler can still produce as much as Cook with less. Thats kind of the point Im making here. I agree that Ekelers touches and TDs will go down, I just dont think that will impact his output as much as Cooks injury history will impact (and has impacted) his output.

But thats just my ¢¢

Typically it's the opposite, RBs like Ekeler who don't see a ton of work *need* that absurd efficiency and TD rate in order to maintain their high-level fantasy production, it's more likely that Ekeler sees a carry and TD regression that puts him in the RB 10-12 range than Cook misses enough games to take him out of the top 8 RBs

In 16 games in 2019 Ekeler had 224 touches and produced about 312 points
In 16 games in 2021 Ekeler had 276 touches and produced about 356 points
In 14 games in 2020 Cook had 356 touches and produced about 336 points

Did you know Kamara has never had more than 300 touches in a season? Yet he has been a top 10 option in PPR leagues every year he has been in the league. Well, Ekeler is Kamara-lite . In 5 seasons he has posted 2 top 10 seasons both with less than 300 touches. On the other hand Cook in 5 seasons also has 2 top 10 seasons both with MORE than 300 touches (and he only played in 14 games those years). In fact, interestingly enough Cook had 283 touches in 13 games last year and finished 16th among RBs with 224 points. I think what you think is going to happen to Ekeler is actually going to happen to Cook.

And unless you think Ekelers reception numbers are going to go way down, I think you're line of thinking is unfounded and way off-trend. That doesnt mean what you are saying about Ekeler CANT happen. It just means that it hasnt happened, AND there is no reason to think that Cooks volume and efficiency wont also be an impediment this year. Ekeler is safer because 150 carries and 80 receptions is still a possibility. As long as his PPR ceiling is that high Ekeler will always be a top 10 RB. Dalvin Cook NEEDS 300 touches to be a top 10 RB and he is in no ways guaranteed to get that.

But again thats just my ¢¢ based on what has already happened. If something different happened, or Im missing something please let me know. OR let me know what you think will change with both Ekeler and Cook. Otherwise, everything else is conjecture.

[StableOfRBs]

But it is shown that Ekeler can still produce as much as Cook with less. Thats kind of the point Im making here. I agree that Ekelers touches and TDs will go down, I just dont think that will impact his output as much as Cooks injury history will impact (and has impacted) his output.

But thats just my ¢¢

Typically it's the opposite, RBs like Ekeler who don't see a ton of work *need* that absurd efficiency and TD rate in order to maintain their high-level fantasy production, it's more likely that Ekeler sees a carry and TD regression that puts him in the RB 10-12 range than Cook misses enough games to take him out of the top 8 RBs

In 16 games in 2019 Ekeler had 224 touches and produced about 312 points
In 16 games in 2021 Ekeler had 276 touches and produced about 356 points
In 14 games in 2020 Cook had 356 touches and produced about 336 points

Did you know Kamara has never had more than 300 touches in a season? Yet he has been a top 10 option in PPR leagues every year he has been in the league. Well, Ekeler is Kamara-lite . In 5 seasons he has posted 2 top 10 seasons both with less than 300 touches. On the other hand Cook in 5 seasons also has 2 top 10 seasons both with MORE than 300 touches (and he only played in 14 games those years). In fact, interestingly enough Cook had 283 touches in 13 games last year and finished 16th among RBs with 224 points. I think what you think is going to happen to Kamara is actually going to happen to Cook.

And unless you think Ekelers reception numbers are going to go way down, I think you're line of thinking is unfounded and way off-trend. That doesnt mean what you are saying about Ekeler CANT happen. It just means that it hasnt happened, AND there is no reason to think that Cooks volume and efficiency wont also be an impediment this year. Ekeler is safer because 150 carries and 80 receptions is still a possibility. As long as his PPR ceiling is that high Ekeler will always be a top 10 RB. Dalvin Cook NEEDS 300 touches to be a top 10 RB and he is in no ways guaranteed to get that.

But again thats just my ¢¢ based on what has already happened. If something different happened, or Im missing something please let me know. OR let me know what you think will change with both Ekeler and Cook. Otherwise, everything else is conjecture.

sure Ekeler gets a bump in PPR leagues but 1) yes I do think Ekeler's receptions are going down, throwing to a running back doesn't create nearly as many wins above average as throwing to a WR does, it's great for fantasy but not a winning recipe in the actual NFL, 2) I think with all the reports of how much the chargers like Josh Palmer coming out of camp they start involving a 3rd wide receiver more (and on top of that I think Everett is more likely to command targets at TE than a 34 year old Jared Cook), 3) you're comparing Ekeler's numbers using two years with different QBs in different offensive setups with different coaches and just looking at the raw fantasy numbers and not how he got those numbers, it's fantastic that Ekeler could produce in two different situations like that and but neither way he did it is really a repeatable event: in 2019 he had the 4th most receptions by an RB ever in a single season on an insane 18.75% target share (typically RBs get like 10-12% if they're a good pass-catcher) and in 2021 he scored once every 17 carries and once every 8.75 receptions hitting two separate career highs in efficiency at age 26 which almost never happens

The issue with looking just at fantasy totals and not how the player got those numbers is you end up ignoring the circumstances that led to those numbers and the moves the team has made since that might effect them. With the addition of Everett and Spiller and the glowing reviews out of camp about Josh Palmer and Josh Kelley (the chargers have been pretty obviously looking for a compliment to Ekeler to use late in games to run out the clock and reduce his workload for years now) I think he's line for a pretty decent reduction in volume and I think he's due for a reduction in efficiency regardless.

I think this year Ekeler is probably gonna be good for ~140 carries for 625 rushing yards and 6-7 TDs with ~55 catches on 75 targets for 525 yards and 5-6 TDs so you're looking at a regression of about -100 fantasy points for Ekeler in PPR leagues, maybe -110

As for Cook not much has really changed for his offense, still has 2 WRs commanding a high target share like he has in recent years, Irv Smith is supposedly healthy and set up to breakout this year but I'll believe it when I see it since he hasn't done anything yet and Mattison is still there to take some work away like he has been in the previous few years as well. The biggest thing for Cook is the TDs. Last year he scored 5 times on 45 RZ carries (4 TDs on 26 carries inside the 10), in 2020 it was 13 TDs on 58 RZ carries (12 on 35 inside the 10), and in 2019 it was 12 TDs on 43 RZ carries (11 on 32 inside the 10). Cook has been remarkably consistent in his rushing TD production over both the 2019 and 2020 seasons scoring once almost every 19.5 carries both seasons. With no changes in QB, WR, TE, no additional RBs added and no significant change in the OL's ability to block (PFF has them around the 10-18 each of the past 3 seasons in the league with similar grades each year in run blocking) he went from scoring once every 19.5 carries to scoring once every 40.5. If he does that again and just no longer scores TDs then I would view it as an issue but as of right now it looks more like an outlier than anything and I would expect at least somewhat of a return to form this year. He also had a slight decline in efficiency as a receiver last year as well (6.6 yards/catch compared to a career average of 8.2 and a 70% catch rate compared to a career average of 79%) but there's not enough volume or enough of a decline for it to matter too much and he's getting mostly short-yardage targets over his career unlike Ekeler who has gotten a high % of those intermediate targets than most RBs.

Now as I said about Ekeler, RBs don't all of a sudden hit efficiency highs at age 26 so I'm not expecting Cook to start hitting 6 yards a carry or anything like that and outside of the TD numbers last year Cook has been incredibly consistent as an RB. I would expect ~270 rushing attempts for 1250 yards and 12-13 TDs with ~40 catches on 55 targets (Cook has been surprisingly consistent in his receiving work) for 300 yards and 1-2 TDs. For Cook you're looking at a regression of about +65 fantasy points in PPR leagues.