Garrett Wilson is my WR1 in this class and it’s not that close for me… am I crazy??

[Sriracha]

You really think that Calvin Ridley is Olave’s ceiling?

Personally, yes.

He's a smallish downfield separator with minimal YAC ability.

Is there a better comp you can think of?

It’s not a horrible comp. I’m just not much of a Ridley fan, I guess. There’s a really fine line between Ridley as a prospect, and say, Torry Holt. I tend to be a little more generous with “ceilings”.

From a numbers perspective he's significantly smaller and less explosive than Holt coming out.

I use the term "ceiling" loosely; Mostly just using the term to refer to what I feel are realistic outcomes. Obviously, each of these player are unique in their own way and none of these receivers are carbon copies of one another.

If I'm going for pure moonshot comps Marvin Harrison is a much better comp than Torry Holt for him, but I also feel that having Peyton Manning was a huge reason for his HoF success.

[Ice]

Actually the best comp for Olave is probably Garrett Wilson. These two will be interesting to follow going forward.

Both these players need to get a bit stronger which they will. This should help them play better against press man at the NFL Level.

I like them both a lot. I think Olave will have the better rookie year but I did rate Wilson higher as a longer term dynasty asset.

[Jigga94]

Actually the best comp for Olave is probably Garrett Wilson. These two will be interesting to follow going forward.

Both these players need to get a bit stronger which they will. This should help them play better against press man at the NFL Level.

I like them both a lot. I think Olave will have the better rookie year but I did rate Wilson higher as a longer term dynasty asset.

Glad I'm not the only one who sees the vast similarities in these 2 teammates.

[j4pac]

Personally, yes.

He's a smallish downfield separator with minimal YAC ability.

Is there a better comp you can think of?

It’s not a horrible comp. I’m just not much of a Ridley fan, I guess. There’s a really fine line between Ridley as a prospect, and say, Torry Holt. I tend to be a little more generous with “ceilings”.

From a numbers perspective he's significantly smaller and less explosive than Holt coming out.

I use the term "ceiling" loosely; Mostly just using the term to refer to what I feel are realistic outcomes. Obviously, each of these player are unique in their own way and none of these receivers are carbon copies of one another.

If I'm going for pure moonshot comps Marvin Harrison is a much better comp than Torry Holt for him, but I also feel that having Peyton Manning was a huge reason for his HoF success.

I agree that Holt was a little thicker, but I’d hate to make that a big component of a comp. Especially considering that the NFL is very different today that it was in Holts day. Holt wasn’t much of a YAC guy but he could make contested catches and won down the field. I think Olave can be very similar, and his size isn’t a big deal we all with the way the NFL protects WRs. Olave looks like hulk compared to DeVonte Smith, who is like a toothpick…but is just fine. I think that Olave should be a Tyler Lockett like player. Barring injury, I think he should come at least close to that as a floor. I think that Ridley is a very reasonable expectation and comparison. I think his ceiling could be someone like Torry Holt, though of course an awful lot would have to go right to meet that ceiling. I agree that he looks a little like Harrison, but it’s really hard to even mention Harrison’s name as a comp for any prospect knowing just how good that he was. It’d be like people foolishly comparing WRs to Moss and Tyreek Hill. Good luck with that.

[Sriracha]

Interesting, I’d put Holt and Harrison in the same tier of receivers

[j4pac]

Interesting, I’d put Holt and Harrison in the same tier of receivers

Holt was allergic to the end zone. He was like a small Julio. Harrison is definitely ahead

[lukkynumber13]

Interesting, I’d put Holt and Harrison in the same tier of receivers

Holt was allergic to the end zone. He was like a small Julio. Harrison is definitely ahead

Ugh… I hate this analysis on Julio. There’s no part of Julio that is bad in the end zone. Dude was an absolute stud target, but unfortunately he played with a QB who, while talented, always tended to look away from his primary read when that WR1 was doubled.

[Chris_R]

Interesting, I’d put Holt and Harrison in the same tier of receivers

Holt was allergic to the end zone. He was like a small Julio. Harrison is definitely ahead

Ugh… I hate this analysis on Julio. There’s no part of Julio that is bad in the end zone. Dude was an absolute stud target, but unfortunately he played with a QB who, while talented, always tended to look away from his primary read when that WR1 was doubled.

This is true and happened to Andre Johnson too. They didn't have a ton of opportunities to just jump ball red zone TDs like most elite WRs do and that's a huge piece to fantasy. During that time Dez was just getting RZ fades nearly every visit on top of any long ones he broke where he was covered every attempt. Julio was talented enough to get 20 TDs a year if he was properly targeted I have no doubt.

[BabyChark23]

He was my WR1 before the draft and usually I have talent over situation but any WR going to the Jets, Ravens, or Patriots is enough for me to pause. So if Wilson hits it won't be on any of my teams, don't believe in Wilson, the Jets ability to develop a top 15 fantasy WR, or them to be able to feed a ton of weapons in the passing game when snow will be on the field half of those games. There were only a few teams I wasn't gonna draft Wilson and he landed on one of those.

Jets certainly weren’t ideal. I understand the history with Patriots receivers, but that landing spot would have been a HUGE boost in my book. Mac is a QB that is highly accurate and could support a weapon like Wilson.

Obviously nowhere near the talent or type that Wilson is, but do you like Tyquan Thornton much? He’s basically free in every draft I’ve been in. This year’s Dwayne Eskridge.

I would throw a dart at Tyquan late in drafts. He hasn’t made it to me in the drafts I’ve been in though. He went mid 2nd in one league, and that’s way too high for my taste. In another he went 3.11, I think that’s good value at that point but I didn’t have any late round picks there. Difference between him and Eskridge is that Patriots depth chart doesn’t have entrenched alphas ahead of him.

[j4pac]

Interesting, I’d put Holt and Harrison in the same tier of receivers

Holt was allergic to the end zone. He was like a small Julio. Harrison is definitely ahead

Ugh… I hate this analysis on Julio. There’s no part of Julio that is bad in the end zone. Dude was an absolute stud target, but unfortunately he played with a QB who, while talented, always tended to look away from his primary read when that WR1 was doubled.

Matt Ryan…borderline HOF QB who inexplicably looked away from one of the best WRs in the past decade in the redzone. You do realize how ridiculous that argument is? Julio was not doubled more than other WR in that area of the field. He’s a strider, and those types of WRs are often less effective in the redzone than the quick and shifty ones.

Holt was great…just like Julio. But he did most of his damage down the field. He usually wasn’t scoring TDs unless they were bombs. I personally think that TDs are more important to the game than yards. It’s why I also have Antonio Brown higher than Julio Jones. But it is a preference.

But back on topic…I guess that 90 catch with 1300 yards and 9 TDs isn’t a bad ceiling (Ridley’s best season). I think Olave is a better prospect than Ridley so I’d hate to put his ceiling at an inferior players peak, but that’s just me.

[dondickenson]

I really like Wilson, his tape stood out for me pre draft as the most Jefferson like of all the guys. I like him A LOT more than Olave watching their tape together - watching them together really soured me on Olave, who is as bad after the catch as I’ve seen out of a prospect in recent memory. Whereas Wilson is good to great in all aspects.

Wilson could easily be the best WR out of this class, and one day we could view it as Jefferson 2020::Chase 2021 = Wilson 2022::JSN 2023. Do I think that’s likely? No. But I think after the two likely top dawgs Burks and London, Wilson is the next most possible dynasty WR1 in this class, followed by Skyy and Jamo.

[mild]

With E Moore looking very good last year (Davis is decent too) and reports from OTA that Zach isn't looking so hot.
IMO, Biggest question is can Zach feed all the mouths there and make them fantasy relevant.

Bingo.

I know everyone wants to write him off but Corey Davis is also going to be a factor.

I believe this receiver room is so good that Zach doesn't need to be able to "feed all the mouths" there.. he just needs to prove he can operate an NFL offense and let them take care of the rest.

Either Zach is a complete bust (very possible) or these guys will be fine.

The reality is that the target volume may also just not be there.

The Jets bolstered their line once again with an incredibly underrated signing stealing Laken Tomlinson from the Niners. They expect Becton back (we'll see) and Alijah Vera-Tucker will be in his 2nd season. They also got good play out of George Fant last year, who returns.

It's not a spectacular OL, but it has the potential to be a LOT better than the bottom-barrel unit they trotted out in 2021.

With the aggressive drafting of Breece Hall as the first RB off the board, and the open not-so-secret that they are basically just running the 49ers playbook - some analysts have already started projecting for the Jets to springboard from the literal back of the league into the top-10 for rush attempts in '22. (Without a doubt, we can project that it will likely be higher than DEAD LAST in '21)

Certainly, it makes a certain amount of sense - how do you limit the exposure and take pressure off of a to-this-point-shaky QB whilst consistently moving the ball? You run the snot out of it. (Jimmy G says hello)

Of course, typically you run the ball in neutral game scripts or when you've got the lead... we'll see about that one

[mild]

Welp, Garrett Wilson fell to me in my rookie draft... so now I'm ALL IN!

That being said - I watch Garrett Wilson and I love him. Dude just looks special in a way that I don’t see from these other guys (including Williams).

Am I crazy?

I sure hope you're not crazy!

I've been watching his tape like a hawk since he dropped to me, and I will say - his body control is already truly elite. I'm excited for the young man... he definitely could be very special.

Here's hoping there's enough ball to go around in New York this year.

[ZakHH]

No other team has as many mouths to feed in the passing game as the Jets do. Breece Hall, Michael Carter, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Braxtion Berrios and finally Garrett Wilson - that's 8 potential pass catchers.

2 will probably drop out of the rotation (my money is on Uzomah and Davis), but that will still leave 6. I do expect Zach Wilson to improve, but even if their passing volume increases by 10-15%, that will still make them only a mediocre passing team.

I'd take Olave over Garrett Wilson any day. The Saints will have pretty similar team stats, but the duo Olave/Thomas will have a higher combined target share than the duo Wilson/Moore. Even with Thomas healthy, I can see Olave as a fantasy WR2. If Thomas struggles, Olave could be a borderline WR1.

Unless the Jets miraculously become a top 10 passing offense, Garrett Wilson would need a 30% target share to enter fantasy WR2 conversation. The talent is there, but that still looks a bit optimistic to me.

[mild]

Unless the Jets miraculously become a top 10 passing offense, Garrett Wilson would need a 30% target share to enter fantasy WR2 conversation. The talent is there, but that still looks a bit optimistic to me.

Can you show your working on that Target Share calculation? A 30% target share for any WR in the league would be someone we would be sitting up and taking extreme notice of, even if they were on a "bad offense".

He would likely be a fantasy WR1 if he commanded 30% of the Jets targets in 2022.