Breece Hall or Kyle Pitts?

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Yes it is, because whoever gets that pick can take Breece, so he should be selling it with that in mind as it's value. That's my point here. I'd take Hall over Pitts all day in non SF, so I guess that means Hall is a top 3 asset? So my point is he shouldn't be moving that pick that can land Hall, plus another valuable asset just for Pitts. He's better off going for another player trading away that pick if that's the case.

Nope, just means you are off base on Pitts imo

Yeah, that's fair. I think people valuing him as 1.01++ are way off based. It is what it is. We all value players differently.

Without different valuations, there would be no trades. And what fun would dynasty be then?!

[cvbuc]

Dudes, come on, it's Pitts here and it's not even remotely close.

TE - as of right now - has the greatest point differential advantage at the position from the less than handful elites like Kelce to the inconsistent fodder that everyone after the top 3-4 guys tries and cobble together each week.

Pitts had a sensational rookie season for a TE. He delivered and then some from a historical perspective. He is easily on track to become one of if not THE top scoring TE at a position where having a guy like him is the biggest advantage in fantasy when put together with a good roster. I've owned Kelce in every league I'm currently in since his rookie year and have been a top contender in every single league for every single season and he's the lone remaining common denominator on all of those teams. Finding that true absolute stud TE matters more than almost anything else in fantasy.

Breece Hall has never played an NFL down and plays at a position where the likes of Jeff Wilson and Rashaad Penny have won chips for many managers over the past two playoff stretches. I'm sure he'll be great. But it's highly unlikely he will be the difference maker at his position that Pitts will be at his.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

If you could stick dk metcalf in your TE slot after his rookie year, which RBs would you NOT trade for that? Because position aside, Pitts just had a better rookie year than DK at age 20/21, and led the whole league in yards per route on the outside, a stat usually dominated by the top WRs. He'd be a 1st round startup pick for me even as a wr, without the positional advantage.

[BradyT]

Thanks for all the great responses so far.
For now I havnt contacted the three Pitts owners about a 1.01 for Pitts deal. Reason is two of them havnt responded to other offers I sent to them..asking for one of the 1.04's or one of the 1.05 that they own + a 2023 1st and a high 2nd this year.
Once they respond to that(if they turn it down), I will try to get Pitts for the 1.01 from them.
I will certainly not add much to the pick, simpley because I'm not gonna overpay for Pitts, which I think I would if I add considerably on top of the 1.01. Its not a TE premium, the QB Situation in ATL is uncertain and they added Drake London.
Breece Hall could very well be a 1st rd pick in Startup Drafts next year(Top 12 dynasty assett), and workhorse RBS a very hard to come by.

[Edgy68]

You have three different owners for whom you could send that offer. It is worth it to try all three to see if anyone bites. Maybe one takes it straight up or only needs a little piece coming back. Otherwise, based on your roster, I’d explore trading for an established young player that you’d rank up there or slightly above Hall.

[oneson9192]

Pitts > Hall

True for both:
- Elite long-term upside at their position
- 21 yrs old
- Short term upside somewhat capped (not sure 2022 will be either of their best years)

True for Pitts only:
- Plays at the most scarce position in non-SF leagues
- Already proved the hype is real at the NFL level
- Could be a dominant asset for 8-10 years (compared to 4-5 for Hall)

[Sriracha]

Pitts > Hall

True for both:
- Elite long-term upside at their position
- 21 yrs old
- Short term upside somewhat capped (not sure 2022 will be either of their best years)

True for Pitts only:
- Plays at the most scarce position in non-SF leagues
- Already proved the hype is real at the NFL level
- Could be a dominant asset for 8-10 years (compared to 4-5 for Hall)

There's a few assumptions being made here that may not hold true:

While Pitts is an elite talent he's not guaranteed to be an elite producer. There was next to 0 target competition in 2021 and ATL has completely revamped their receiving core this off-season. He goes from one of the best TE friendly QBs in the league in Matt Ryan to QB purgatory this year which could affect the ceiling on his production.

So, while I agree Pitts is almost guaranteed to be a top 5 TE he's not guaranteed to be a consistent league winning TE like Kelce, Kittle (when he plays) and Andrews was last year.

Second, the scarcity of Bell Cow RBs is still higher than elite TEs given the number of starting positions on most league rosters. You're often starting 2-3 RBs while the vast majority of leagues will have you only starting 1 TE. While there are 5 TEs in the "elite" tier right now, there aren't 15 RBs with elite league winning upside.

Third, even if both of these guys hit an elite RB having a league winning season will simply score more points than a TE in non-TE premium scoring. The delta on an RB having a career year will have a much bigger impact on a championship roster than a league winning TE.

Now, Pitts is a far more proven talent at this point and we still just strongly suspect that Hall will be a bellcow in the NFL. If he fails to relegate Michael Carter to a pure backup role obviously Pitts becomes the more palatable asset.

So while I can understand why some may prefer Pitts to Hall I don't think it's as "open and shut" of a case as you're making it out to be.

[Ice]

Real value Hall and Pitts are close in Non TE Premium leagues but doubt the Pitts owner would sell. Pitts has value for 10 years barring injury and RB's don't typically last that long if you're playing the odds.

I would try it personally given two copies in the league and might throw in Hockenson on top of the pick if needed.

You obviously have a few potential bites of that apple.

[FantasyFreak]

Pitts > Hall

True for both:
- Elite long-term upside at their position
- 21 yrs old
- Short term upside somewhat capped (not sure 2022 will be either of their best years)

True for Pitts only:
- Plays at the most scarce position in non-SF leagues
- Already proved the hype is real at the NFL level
- Could be a dominant asset for 8-10 years (compared to 4-5 for Hall)

There's a few assumptions being made here that may not hold true:

While Pitts is an elite talent he's not guaranteed to be an elite producer. There was next to 0 target competition in 2021 and ATL has completely revamped their receiving core this off-season. He goes from one of the best TE friendly QBs in the league in Matt Ryan to QB purgatory this year which could affect the ceiling on his production.

So, while I agree Pitts is almost guaranteed to be a top 5 TE he's not guaranteed to be a consistent league winning TE like Kelce, Kittle (when he plays) and Andrews was last year.

Second, the scarcity of Bell Cow RBs is still higher than elite TEs given the number of starting positions on most league rosters. You're often starting 2-3 RBs while the vast majority of leagues will have you only starting 1 TE. While there are 5 TEs in the "elite" tier right now, there aren't 15 RBs with elite league winning upside.

Third, even if both of these guys hit an elite RB having a league winning season will simply score more points than a TE in non-TE premium scoring. The delta on an RB having a career year will have a much bigger impact on a championship roster than a league winning TE.

Now, Pitts is a far more proven talent at this point and we still just strongly suspect that Hall will be a bellcow in the NFL. If he fails to relegate Michael Carter to a pure backup role obviously Pitts becomes the more palatable asset.

So while I can understand why some may prefer Pitts to Hall I don't think it's as "open and shut" of a case as you're making it out to be.

Really good post IMO.

[Anteaters]

Really good post IMO.

OUTSTANDING post!

If Hall becomes a T10RB, he will be >> Pitts in nonTEP. If Hall becomes a T5RB, he'll be >>> Pitts in nonTEP. It's hard to believe anyone really thinks otherwise.

[oneson9192]

Pitts > Hall

True for both:
- Elite long-term upside at their position
- 21 yrs old
- Short term upside somewhat capped (not sure 2022 will be either of their best years)

True for Pitts only:
- Plays at the most scarce position in non-SF leagues
- Already proved the hype is real at the NFL level
- Could be a dominant asset for 8-10 years (compared to 4-5 for Hall)

There's a few assumptions being made here that may not hold true:

While Pitts is an elite talent he's not guaranteed to be an elite producer. There was next to 0 target competition in 2021 and ATL has completely revamped their receiving core this off-season. He goes from one of the best TE friendly QBs in the league in Matt Ryan to QB purgatory this year which could affect the ceiling on his production.

So, while I agree Pitts is almost guaranteed to be a top 5 TE he's not guaranteed to be a consistent league winning TE like Kelce, Kittle (when he plays) and Andrews was last year.

Second, the scarcity of Bell Cow RBs is still higher than elite TEs given the number of starting positions on most league rosters. You're often starting 2-3 RBs while the vast majority of leagues will have you only starting 1 TE. While there are 5 TEs in the "elite" tier right now, there aren't 15 RBs with elite league winning upside.

Third, even if both of these guys hit an elite RB having a league winning season will simply score more points than a TE in non-TE premium scoring. The delta on an RB having a career year will have a much bigger impact on a championship roster than a league winning TE.

Now, Pitts is a far more proven talent at this point and we still just strongly suspect that Hall will be a bellcow in the NFL. If he fails to relegate Michael Carter to a pure backup role obviously Pitts becomes the more palatable asset.

So while I can understand why some may prefer Pitts to Hall I don't think it's as "open and shut" of a case as you're making it out to be.

I guess I've never really considered Matt Ryan among the "most TE friendly QBs" in the league? Do you have some way of backing that up? Marcus Mariota threw 133 targets to Delanie Walker in his rookie year. 36% of his passes went to TEs, good for first in the league that year. Compare that to 28% for Matt Ryan last season.

You say that:
- Kyle Pitts is guaranteed to be a top 5 TE
- Kyle Pitts is not guaranteed to be in the elite tier of TEs
- There are 5 TEs in the elite tier
... Those can't all be true.

I'll secede that "The delta on an RB having a career year will have a much bigger impact on a championship roster than a league winning TE". The average Value Over Replacement ranking for the top 2-3 RBs is usually slightly higher than the top 1 TE. BUT, I would argue that this is where the longevity of the TE position overrides the RB advantage.

Which is more likely in 2022?
- Kyle Pitts is top 1 TE
- Breece Hall is a top 3 RB
Probably about equal, yeah?

What about in 2026? Pitts with the advantage now.

What about in 2029? Not even a question anymore.

Not encouraging anyone to play for 2029, but the value insulation for an awesome, young TE is truly unrivaled.

[Ice]

Really good post IMO.

OUTSTANDING post!

If Hall becomes a T10RB, he will be >> Pitts in nonTEP. If Hall becomes a T5RB, he'll be >>> Pitts in nonTEP. It's hard to believe anyone really thinks otherwise.

If is a pretty big word. Arguing ifs and guarantees, while interesting observations, never really strengthen the argument.

It is like me saying Pitts is the first Rookie TE since 1961 to go over 1000 yards and the 2nd rookie TE to ever go over 1000 as a rookie; Or saying Pitts broke Julio Jones all time rookie receiving yards record on the Falcons last year.....Oh Wait that actually happened.

Not sure I would be trading away a Unicorn for hope no matter how hard I was trying to talk myself into it with those big if words.

[Anteaters]

Really good post IMO.

OUTSTANDING post!

If Hall becomes a T10RB, he will be >> Pitts in nonTEP. If Hall becomes a T5RB, he'll be >>> Pitts in nonTEP. It's hard to believe anyone really thinks otherwise.

If is a pretty big word. Arguing ifs and guarantees, while interesting observations, never really strengthen the argument.

It is like me saying Pitts is the first Rookie TE since 1961 to go over 1000 yards and the 2nd rookie TE to ever go over 1000 as a rookie; Or saying Pitts broke Julio Jones all time rookie receiving yards record on the Falcons last year.....Oh Wait that actually happened.

Not sure I would be trading away a Unicorn for hope no matter how hard I was trying to talk myself into it with those big if words.

I agree if is a big word. And I agree Pitts looked pretty good putting up a TE6 season in his rookie year. But let's not kid ourselves that Pitts has a lot of "ifs" to conquer if he wants to come close to being worth what his truthers say his value is.

The difference in the "ifs" is glaring.

For Hall to achieve his "ifs" and perform up to his valuation, he has to do what very good RBs do all the time - produce a T10 season for 4 of the next 8 years and he'll be a very valuable component for a fantasy team in contention. Hall doesn't have to be LT or Dickerson or Sanders. He just has to be a run-of-the-mill very good RB.

For Pitts to achieve his "ifs" and perform up to his valuation, he has to do what only one or two TEs have ever done in the history of the NFL. Pitts has to be a T2 TE for 6 of the next 10 seasons. He has to become Kelce or Gonzalez. If Pitts becomes a 900-1000yd/6-9TD TE, no one will ever be convinced he was worth a young RB1 or a young WR1. Pitts has to be the unquestioned best of the past 30 years. That's a lot of "if".

[Ice]

OUTSTANDING post!

If Hall becomes a T10RB, he will be >> Pitts in nonTEP. If Hall becomes a T5RB, he'll be >>> Pitts in nonTEP. It's hard to believe anyone really thinks otherwise.

If is a pretty big word. Arguing ifs and guarantees, while interesting observations, never really strengthen the argument.

It is like me saying Pitts is the first Rookie TE since 1961 to go over 1000 yards and the 2nd rookie TE to ever go over 1000 as a rookie; Or saying Pitts broke Julio Jones all time rookie receiving yards record on the Falcons last year.....Oh Wait that actually happened.

Not sure I would be trading away a Unicorn for hope no matter how hard I was trying to talk myself into it with those big if words.

I agree if is a big word. And I agree Pitts looked pretty good putting up a TE6 season in his rookie year. But let's not kid ourselves that Pitts has a lot of "ifs" to conquer if he wants to come close to being worth what his truthers say his value is.

The difference in the "ifs" is glaring.

For Hall to achieve his "ifs" and perform up to his valuation, he has to do what very good RBs do all the time - produce a T10 season for 4 of the next 8 years and he'll be a very valuable component for a fantasy team in contention. Hall doesn't have to be LT or Dickerson or Sanders. He just has to be a run-of-the-mill very good RB.

For Pitts to achieve his "ifs" and perform up to his valuation, he has to do what only one or two TEs have ever done in the history of the NFL. Pitts has to be a T2 TE for 6 of the next 10 seasons. He has to become Kelce or Gonzalez. If Pitts becomes a 900-1000yd/6-9TD TE, no one will ever be convinced he was worth a young RB1 or a young WR1. Pitts has to be the unquestioned best of the past 30 years. That's a lot of "if".

Consider this IF;

Pitts is nothing like a traditional TE. He ran 771 plays last season. 502 of those plays we either out wide or in the slot. 269 were in line.

His numbers usage is more like Kelce but Pitts has the speed to line up outside as well. Kelce ran 546 plays out wide or in the slot (519 Slot) and 370 in line.

I am using Kelce to show you that is how he is being used except Pitts is so fast they actually lined him up outside like an X 116 of those 502 times he played more of a receiver role.

The biggest mistake I see with Pitts is ff owners trying to pigeonhole him as a TE when he is as close to a position less player on offense in the NFL as anyone in the game today.

He should be valued way beyond a traditional TE role given he lines up effectively all over the field and in just learning all those positions at the highest level. He blew past Kelce and Gonzo's rookie receiving records. Neither of those players even had 1000 yards receiving until year 4 where they both finally broke through. The only TE in history he couldn't quite chase down was Ditka's 1961 record.

His arrow is pointing straight up.

[Anteaters]

Consider this IF;

Pitts is nothing like a traditional TE. He ran 771 plays last season. 502 of those plays we either out wide or in the slot. 269 were in line.

His numbers usage is more like Kelce but Pitts has the speed to line up outside as well. Kelce ran 546 plays out wide or in the slot (519 Slot) and 370 in line.

I am using Kelce to show you that is how he is being used except Pitts is so fast they actually lined him up outside like an X 116 of those 502 times he played more of a receiver role.

The biggest mistake I see with Pitts is ff owners trying to pigeonhole him as a TE when he is as close to a position less player on offense in the NFL as anyone in the game today.

He should be valued way beyond a traditional TE role given he lines up effectively all over the field and in just learning all those positions at the highest level. He blew past Kelce and Gonzo's rookie receiving records. Neither of those players even had 1000 yards receiving until year 4 where they both finally broke through. The only TE in history he couldn't quite chase down was Ditka's 1961 record.

That's exactly what I'm saying!

In order for Pitts to be worth his valuation, he has to do something that has never been done before. That's what you're saying. You're saying he's going to be the most prolific TE ever. You're saying he's going to consistently put up WR1 stats from the TE position, season after season after season.

I agree those are the IFs Pitts has to achieve to be worth his valuation. I disagree that his rookie season guarantees he achieves those IFs.

Basically, that means Pitts will be the TE1 year after year after year, because any year that he's not TE1-2 he is TE3/TE4/TE5 and he'll stumble to 800yds/4TDs and be Goedert's twin. And if Pitts is not TE1-2 year after year he will be a total bust - because how can a TE not be a bust if someone drafted him over Najee/Chase/Javonte/Waddle/etc and he turns out to be an stats-average T5TE?

I love Pitts' talent, but too much has to go right in his career (that he doesn't control) for him to be worth his current valuation.