Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

[YouMightDieTryin]

[Chwf3rd]

I don't mind feedback or differing opinions on a fantasy perspective.

Oh good! I was worried this was going to be another rant about criticism.

However,

Uh-oh.

some replies have turned abusive and either a direct attack on my character or methods.

Your methods have been directly attacked, yes. Is that a problem? Isn't that what we're supposed to do? Criticize the way we think about this stuff so that we can improve?

As for your character, I haven't seen that. People have criticized your persona, sure. You referred to your persona here as "egotistical". I haven't seen anybody call into question whether you're a good family man or a dutiful worker. This seems like a mischaracterization. I'm sure you're a good guy! I just don't think your running back analysis is particularly useful to anybody. They're entirely different constructs. I bet Nelson Mandela would have sucked at fantasy football; that's not a criticism of his character!

This is not encouraging for others who read such things -- specifically new users. Those who have legitimate opinions might feel prohibited from sharing due to fear of similar judgement and/or retaliation. I personally find it to be immature and a disservice to the community in general.

First, that this will happen is absolute conjecture. Second, it misses the point. You haven't been criticized for your opinions so much as the way you presented and subsequently misrepresented them. Nobody is criticizing you because they're secretly Jonathan Taylor's dad; but because you claimed a near 100% hit rate. If your point here is that this is going to discourage people from claiming to be the most accurate "analyst" and then subsequently claim that they didn't miss on Kalen Ballage, they were just trying to mess with a league-mate, well, yeah. It might be a deterrent to that.

Feel free to compare my and other folks responses to your threads vs. the responses in Ghosted's WR thread. Your threads consistently devolve into this because of how you present your work and how you respond to criticism.

I've written dozens of in-depth articles for 6 years on these forums before being suggested as a writer for DLF by other members of this community. The top brass at DLF reached out to me after viewing my posts. My RB accuracy and statistical pieces on draft pick trading is what opened the door. I had to go through a series of interviews and my forum posts were further scrutinized for accuracy. Eventually getting offered the position should give credibility to the way I do my analysis.

It doesn't. Your analysis should be judged on its own merits. This "well I write for DLF so my stuff must be good" is an appeal to authority logical fallacy. In an era where the number of dynasty "analysts" is quickly approaching the number of dynasty players, this "status" only reflects that writing dynasty articles is what you choose to do with your free time. Suggesting that your thoughts should be evaluated differently than everybody else's because you worked so hard to get "dlf" at the beginning of your name on an internet forum isn't fair or correct.

One of my first articles was a three-piece series on last year's rookie RBs. Pre-draft I said:

-- Josh Jacobs was the best/safest for now but Miles Sanders is "the most exciting". I then said Sanders would be better in the long run and backed that up by taking him 1.01 in my rookie draft. I won that 32 team league in part because of that selection.
-- Monty was a risk and even suggested that if he lands in Chicago "there might be some problems".
-- I loved Devin Singletary as the best late value. I didn't think he would be a work horse in any system but he "would easily be a great flex play week in, week out.".
-- Darrell Henderson had too many red flags to be draftable and "will struggle to progress at the next level".
-- Everyone else was worth avoiding.
(Proof 1 / Proof 2)

You've also had Kerryon and Michel and Ballage ahaead of Nick Chubb, and Kenneth Dixon ahead of Derrick Henry. I'm not sure I understand the value of reposting your 2019 rankings one year out.

My methods are under constant scrutiny by a select few, but I give paid subscribers my best possible work, and I believe the results speak for themselves. I don't know what else I could have done to be more accurate than that.

I would implore you to simply let your results speak for themselves as opposed to constantly trying to explain why your misses are actually hits.

The only reason I felt compelled to reply is because these forums have had the greatest increase in new users in its history. I want them to not only feel welcomed, but also safe to share opinions and contribute to conversations, and to ensure they're getting quality work from the best writers DLF can find. I can't hold a candle to the in-depth analysis and research that other writers and podcasters do on a daily basis. I'm in awe every time I converse with them on the work chat. The products they produce truly are the greatest assets to dynasty league football that one can find anywhere on the internet.

I'd love it if the conversation reverted back to the topic. I realize it might be a stretch at this point and I may need to temporarily lock it until something happens and players ranks once again need to be discussed. I'd mostly love it if civility returned to our conversations, as the negativity is getting tiresome.

I think this is a deflection. You don't want people to criticize you... because criticizing you is going to scare off new users? C'mon, man. Apples and oranges. You earned this by telling everybody how great you were and then unravelling when some people poked a few holes in your "analysis." It has nothing to do with new users sharing their opinions. After all this time, it seems like you still think people dragged you like this because they're emotionally invested in Cam Akers or something. You've been criticized for doing stuff that nobody else does.

This whole thing feels a lot like a transparent appeal to the moderators to censor further criticism of your work- especially where you invoke "new users." I'd humbly suggest that censoring the general user base is far more detrimental to the community than structured criticism of analysis.

I'd mostly love it if civility returned to our conversations, as the negativity is getting tiresome.

I've been perfectly civil here. Civility is not the absence of dissent.

Absolutely savage.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Shake my head... some people just want to watch the world burn

[cantguardjake]

My thoughts / rankings on the running back class:

CEH: Was my 1b to Taylor’s 1a pre draft, with the landing spot vaulting him to number 1. My only concern was pass protection, but if old man McCoy can get snaps last year Clyde should see the field enough until he gets better at it anyway (which he will). Every other aspect of his game is elite.

Taylor: Whilst film isn’t as explosive as you’d expect for someone with his athletic profile (it is long periods of vanilla play until an impressive breakaway run in a lot of cases) - the impressive plays are impressive. He has ideal size, speed and landing spot, and should develop into a complete back.

I would consider drafting Lamb / Jeudy here

Dobbins - No athletic profile is a bummer but he’s obviously athletic on film. I have concerns about the huge holes he is left to run through, and a lot of his production comes outside - which I don’t like at the college level, but once again the landing spot is perfect and the production is hard to ignore.

I would consider drafting Jefferson / Aiyuk etc here based on team needs.

Akers - More athlete than running back, but he is very explosive and a weapon in the passing game. I can see him hanging around ala Atlanta Tevin Coleman at a minimum. At least tries to keep it inside and doesn’t bounce unless he has to, and fights through contact for extra yards. Landing spot has him above Swift, but he’s easily the biggest boom bust in the top 5. Probably the best in pass pro.

Swift - Have never really gotten the hype, he doesn’t seem explosive to me, or as dangerous in the passing game as he is billed. He is still a decent back and has great agility, but below average play strength and a terrible landing spot have me looking to take a top wide receiver over him at this pick.

Daylight - value picks in the second / late second

Dillon - Not a massive fan but I would draft him at his current ADP based on draft capital alone. Play speed doesn’t match his combine and he has limited agility imo. Doesn’t offer much in the passing game but I think that was more scheme than an issue of his. He shows potential inside and obviously has a workhorse build so I would take a flier.

Kelley: Personal favourite pre draft with a decent landing spot. One cut runner with explosion, keeps it inside and gets upfield. Played through injury in 2019, his 2018 film is much more explosive and what I expect to see in the NFL.

There is nobody else that I would draft at their current ADP over an available wide receiver, as I don’t think any of them will make it.

[cantguardjake]

Shake my head... some people just want to watch the world burn

The irony of him stating to look to the wide receiver thread staying on track, when he is the one derailing every running back thread, is obviously lost on him.

[kadun2]

My thoughts / rankings on the running back class:

CEH: Was my 1b to Taylor’s 1a pre draft, with the landing spot vaulting him to number 1. My only concern was pass protection, but if old man McCoy can get snaps last year Clyde should see the field enough until he gets better at it anyway (which he will). Every other aspect of his game is elite.

Taylor: Whilst film isn’t as explosive as you’d expect for someone with his athletic profile (it is long periods of vanilla play until an impressive breakaway run in a lot of cases) - the impressive plays are impressive. He has ideal size, speed and landing spot, and should develop into a complete back.

I would consider drafting Lamb / Jeudy here

Dobbins - No athletic profile is a bummer but he’s obviously athletic on film. I have concerns about the huge holes he is left to run through, and a lot of his production comes outside - which I don’t like at the college level, but once again the landing spot is perfect and the production is hard to ignore.

I would consider drafting Jefferson / Aiyuk etc here based on team needs.

Akers - More athlete than running back, but he is very explosive and a weapon in the passing game. I can see him hanging around ala Atlanta Tevin Coleman at a minimum. At least tries to keep it inside and doesn’t bounce unless he has to, and fights through contact for extra yards. Landing spot has him above Swift, but he’s easily the biggest boom bust in the top 5. Probably the best in pass pro.

Swift - Have never really gotten the hype, he doesn’t seem explosive to me, or as dangerous in the passing game as he is billed. He is still a decent back and has great agility, but below average play strength and a terrible landing spot have me looking to take a top wide receiver over him at this pick.

Daylight - value picks in the second / late second

Dillon - Not a massive fan but I would draft him at his current ADP based on draft capital alone. Play speed doesn’t match his combine and he has limited agility imo. Doesn’t offer much in the passing game but I think that was more scheme than an issue of his. He shows potential inside and obviously has a workhorse build so I would take a flier.

Kelley: Personal favourite pre draft with a decent landing spot. One cut runner with explosion, keeps it inside and gets upfield. Played through injury in 2019, his 2018 film is much more explosive and what I expect to see in the NFL.

There is nobody else that I would draft at their current ADP over an available wide receiver, as I don’t think any of them will make it.

Thanks

[Cult of Dionysus]

I don't mind feedback or differing opinions on a fantasy perspective.

Oh good! I was worried this was going to be another rant about criticism.

However,

Uh-oh.

some replies have turned abusive and either a direct attack on my character or methods.

Your methods have been directly attacked, yes. Is that a problem? Isn't that what we're supposed to do? Criticize the way we think about this stuff so that we can improve?

As for your character, I haven't seen that. People have criticized your persona, sure. You referred to your persona here as "egotistical". I haven't seen anybody call into question whether you're a good family man or a dutiful worker. This seems like a mischaracterization. I'm sure you're a good guy! I just don't think your running back analysis is particularly useful to anybody. They're entirely different constructs. I bet Nelson Mandela would have sucked at fantasy football; that's not a criticism of his character!

This is not encouraging for others who read such things -- specifically new users. Those who have legitimate opinions might feel prohibited from sharing due to fear of similar judgement and/or retaliation. I personally find it to be immature and a disservice to the community in general.

First, that this will happen is absolute conjecture. Second, it misses the point. You haven't been criticized for your opinions so much as the way you presented and subsequently misrepresented them. Nobody is criticizing you because they're secretly Jonathan Taylor's dad; but because you claimed a near 100% hit rate. If your point here is that this is going to discourage people from claiming to be the most accurate "analyst" and then subsequently claim that they didn't miss on Kalen Ballage, they were just trying to mess with a league-mate, well, yeah. It might be a deterrent to that.

Feel free to compare my and other folks responses to your threads vs. the responses in Ghosted's WR thread. Your threads consistently devolve into this because of how you present your work and how you respond to criticism.

I've written dozens of in-depth articles for 6 years on these forums before being suggested as a writer for DLF by other members of this community. The top brass at DLF reached out to me after viewing my posts. My RB accuracy and statistical pieces on draft pick trading is what opened the door. I had to go through a series of interviews and my forum posts were further scrutinized for accuracy. Eventually getting offered the position should give credibility to the way I do my analysis.

It doesn't. Your analysis should be judged on its own merits. This "well I write for DLF so my stuff must be good" is an appeal to authority logical fallacy. In an era where the number of dynasty "analysts" is quickly approaching the number of dynasty players, this "status" only reflects that writing dynasty articles is what you choose to do with your free time. Suggesting that your thoughts should be evaluated differently than everybody else's because you worked so hard to get "dlf" at the beginning of your name on an internet forum isn't fair or correct.

One of my first articles was a three-piece series on last year's rookie RBs. Pre-draft I said:

-- Josh Jacobs was the best/safest for now but Miles Sanders is "the most exciting". I then said Sanders would be better in the long run and backed that up by taking him 1.01 in my rookie draft. I won that 32 team league in part because of that selection.
-- Monty was a risk and even suggested that if he lands in Chicago "there might be some problems".
-- I loved Devin Singletary as the best late value. I didn't think he would be a work horse in any system but he "would easily be a great flex play week in, week out.".
-- Darrell Henderson had too many red flags to be draftable and "will struggle to progress at the next level".
-- Everyone else was worth avoiding.
(Proof 1 / Proof 2)

You've also had Kerryon and Michel and Ballage ahaead of Nick Chubb, and Kenneth Dixon ahead of Derrick Henry. I'm not sure I understand the value of reposting your 2019 rankings one year out.

My methods are under constant scrutiny by a select few, but I give paid subscribers my best possible work, and I believe the results speak for themselves. I don't know what else I could have done to be more accurate than that.

I would implore you to simply let your results speak for themselves as opposed to constantly trying to explain why your misses are actually hits.

The only reason I felt compelled to reply is because these forums have had the greatest increase in new users in its history. I want them to not only feel welcomed, but also safe to share opinions and contribute to conversations, and to ensure they're getting quality work from the best writers DLF can find. I can't hold a candle to the in-depth analysis and research that other writers and podcasters do on a daily basis. I'm in awe every time I converse with them on the work chat. The products they produce truly are the greatest assets to dynasty league football that one can find anywhere on the internet.

I'd love it if the conversation reverted back to the topic. I realize it might be a stretch at this point and I may need to temporarily lock it until something happens and players ranks once again need to be discussed. I'd mostly love it if civility returned to our conversations, as the negativity is getting tiresome.

I think this is a deflection. You don't want people to criticize you... because criticizing you is going to scare off new users? C'mon, man. Apples and oranges. You earned this by telling everybody how great you were and then unravelling when some people poked a few holes in your "analysis." It has nothing to do with new users sharing their opinions. After all this time, it seems like you still think people dragged you like this because they're emotionally invested in Cam Akers or something. You've been criticized for doing stuff that nobody else does.

This whole thing feels a lot like a transparent appeal to the moderators to censor further criticism of your work- especially where you invoke "new users." I'd humbly suggest that censoring the general user base is far more detrimental to the community than structured criticism of analysis.

I'd mostly love it if civility returned to our conversations, as the negativity is getting tiresome.

I've been perfectly civil here. Civility is not the absence of dissent.

Absolutely savage.

The guy must be a carpenter, cuz he just hit a dozen nails on the head.

[ericanadian]

My thoughts / rankings on the running back class:

CEH: Was my 1b to Taylor’s 1a pre draft, with the landing spot vaulting him to number 1. My only concern was pass protection, but if old man McCoy can get snaps last year Clyde should see the field enough until he gets better at it anyway (which he will). Every other aspect of his game is elite.

Taylor: Whilst film isn’t as explosive as you’d expect for someone with his athletic profile (it is long periods of vanilla play until an impressive breakaway run in a lot of cases) - the impressive plays are impressive. He has ideal size, speed and landing spot, and should develop into a complete back.

I would consider drafting Lamb / Jeudy here

Dobbins - No athletic profile is a bummer but he’s obviously athletic on film. I have concerns about the huge holes he is left to run through, and a lot of his production comes outside - which I don’t like at the college level, but once again the landing spot is perfect and the production is hard to ignore.

I would consider drafting Jefferson / Aiyuk etc here based on team needs.

Akers - More athlete than running back, but he is very explosive and a weapon in the passing game. I can see him hanging around ala Atlanta Tevin Coleman at a minimum. At least tries to keep it inside and doesn’t bounce unless he has to, and fights through contact for extra yards. Landing spot has him above Swift, but he’s easily the biggest boom bust in the top 5. Probably the best in pass pro.

Swift - Have never really gotten the hype, he doesn’t seem explosive to me, or as dangerous in the passing game as he is billed. He is still a decent back and has great agility, but below average play strength and a terrible landing spot have me looking to take a top wide receiver over him at this pick.

Daylight - value picks in the second / late second

Dillon - Not a massive fan but I would draft him at his current ADP based on draft capital alone. Play speed doesn’t match his combine and he has limited agility imo. Doesn’t offer much in the passing game but I think that was more scheme than an issue of his. He shows potential inside and obviously has a workhorse build so I would take a flier.

Kelley: Personal favourite pre draft with a decent landing spot. One cut runner with explosion, keeps it inside and gets upfield. Played through injury in 2019, his 2018 film is much more explosive and what I expect to see in the NFL.

There is nobody else that I would draft at their current ADP over an available wide receiver, as I don’t think any of them will make it.

You know that Dobbins runs outside because Ohio State runs an outside zone system and that’s the play design, right?

[cantguardjake]

My thoughts / rankings on the running back class:

CEH: Was my 1b to Taylor’s 1a pre draft, with the landing spot vaulting him to number 1. My only concern was pass protection, but if old man McCoy can get snaps last year Clyde should see the field enough until he gets better at it anyway (which he will). Every other aspect of his game is elite.

Taylor: Whilst film isn’t as explosive as you’d expect for someone with his athletic profile (it is long periods of vanilla play until an impressive breakaway run in a lot of cases) - the impressive plays are impressive. He has ideal size, speed and landing spot, and should develop into a complete back.

I would consider drafting Lamb / Jeudy here

Dobbins - No athletic profile is a bummer but he’s obviously athletic on film. I have concerns about the huge holes he is left to run through, and a lot of his production comes outside - which I don’t like at the college level, but once again the landing spot is perfect and the production is hard to ignore.

I would consider drafting Jefferson / Aiyuk etc here based on team needs.

Akers - More athlete than running back, but he is very explosive and a weapon in the passing game. I can see him hanging around ala Atlanta Tevin Coleman at a minimum. At least tries to keep it inside and doesn’t bounce unless he has to, and fights through contact for extra yards. Landing spot has him above Swift, but he’s easily the biggest boom bust in the top 5. Probably the best in pass pro.

Swift - Have never really gotten the hype, he doesn’t seem explosive to me, or as dangerous in the passing game as he is billed. He is still a decent back and has great agility, but below average play strength and a terrible landing spot have me looking to take a top wide receiver over him at this pick.

Daylight - value picks in the second / late second

Dillon - Not a massive fan but I would draft him at his current ADP based on draft capital alone. Play speed doesn’t match his combine and he has limited agility imo. Doesn’t offer much in the passing game but I think that was more scheme than an issue of his. He shows potential inside and obviously has a workhorse build so I would take a flier.

Kelley: Personal favourite pre draft with a decent landing spot. One cut runner with explosion, keeps it inside and gets upfield. Played through injury in 2019, his 2018 film is much more explosive and what I expect to see in the NFL.

There is nobody else that I would draft at their current ADP over an available wide receiver, as I don’t think any of them will make it.

You know that Dobbins runs outside because Ohio State runs an outside zone system and that’s the play design, right?

Yes, obviously. Ohio run both outside and inside concepts and I think he looks noticeable better outside, and fairly average inside - which I think has a lot to do with his athletic ability at the college level. I question as to how well that will translate when the game is quicker. I wouldn’t be as worried if he looked just as good inside, but I don’t think he does, hence my comment.

[MEuRaH]

Dobbins - No athletic profile is a bummer but he’s obviously athletic on film. I have concerns about the huge holes he is left to run through, and a lot of his production comes outside - which I don’t like at the college level, but once again the landing spot is perfect and the production is hard to ignore.

You know that Dobbins runs outside because Ohio State runs an outside zone system and that’s the play design, right?

Yes, obviously. Ohio run both outside and inside concepts and I think he looks noticeable better outside, and fairly average inside - which I think has a lot to do with his athletic ability at the college level. I question as to how well that will translate when the game is quicker. I wouldn’t be as worried if he looked just as good inside, but I don’t think he does, hence my comment.

The system in Baltimore favors RPO (run pass option) more than any system in the NFL (NFL high 230 attempts), and Dobbins ran RPO more than any collegiate back (57%). Dobbins fits a need.

I love drafting talented players who fit a system perfectly.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Oh good! I was worried this was going to be another rant about criticism.

Uh-oh.

Your methods have been directly attacked, yes. Is that a problem? Isn't that what we're supposed to do? Criticize the way we think about this stuff so that we can improve?

As for your character, I haven't seen that. People have criticized your persona, sure. You referred to your persona here as "egotistical". I haven't seen anybody call into question whether you're a good family man or a dutiful worker. This seems like a mischaracterization. I'm sure you're a good guy! I just don't think your running back analysis is particularly useful to anybody. They're entirely different constructs. I bet Nelson Mandela would have sucked at fantasy football; that's not a criticism of his character!

First, that this will happen is absolute conjecture. Second, it misses the point. You haven't been criticized for your opinions so much as the way you presented and subsequently misrepresented them. Nobody is criticizing you because they're secretly Jonathan Taylor's dad; but because you claimed a near 100% hit rate. If your point here is that this is going to discourage people from claiming to be the most accurate "analyst" and then subsequently claim that they didn't miss on Kalen Ballage, they were just trying to mess with a league-mate, well, yeah. It might be a deterrent to that.

Feel free to compare my and other folks responses to your threads vs. the responses in Ghosted's WR thread. Your threads consistently devolve into this because of how you present your work and how you respond to criticism.

It doesn't. Your analysis should be judged on its own merits. This "well I write for DLF so my stuff must be good" is an appeal to authority logical fallacy. In an era where the number of dynasty "analysts" is quickly approaching the number of dynasty players, this "status" only reflects that writing dynasty articles is what you choose to do with your free time. Suggesting that your thoughts should be evaluated differently than everybody else's because you worked so hard to get "dlf" at the beginning of your name on an internet forum isn't fair or correct.


You've also had Kerryon and Michel and Ballage ahaead of Nick Chubb, and Kenneth Dixon ahead of Derrick Henry. I'm not sure I understand the value of reposting your 2019 rankings one year out.

I would implore you to simply let your results speak for themselves as opposed to constantly trying to explain why your misses are actually hits.



I think this is a deflection. You don't want people to criticize you... because criticizing you is going to scare off new users? C'mon, man. Apples and oranges. You earned this by telling everybody how great you were and then unravelling when some people poked a few holes in your "analysis." It has nothing to do with new users sharing their opinions. After all this time, it seems like you still think people dragged you like this because they're emotionally invested in Cam Akers or something. You've been criticized for doing stuff that nobody else does.

This whole thing feels a lot like a transparent appeal to the moderators to censor further criticism of your work- especially where you invoke "new users." I'd humbly suggest that censoring the general user base is far more detrimental to the community than structured criticism of analysis.


I've been perfectly civil here. Civility is not the absence of dissent.

Absolutely savage.

The guy must be a carpenter, cuz he just hit a dozen nails on the head.

I love a good dad joke. Strong work CoD.

Chwf3rd, man, I’m not trying to be savage, honest. I just don’t like reading bad arguments and it just kind of happens. I’m happy you guys enjoyed reading it!

[cantguardjake]

You know that Dobbins runs outside because Ohio State runs an outside zone system and that’s the play design, right?

Yes, obviously. Ohio run both outside and inside concepts and I think he looks noticeable better outside, and fairly average inside - which I think has a lot to do with his athletic ability at the college level. I question as to how well that will translate when the game is quicker. I wouldn’t be as worried if he looked just as good inside, but I don’t think he does, hence my comment.

The system in Baltimore favors RPO (run pass option) more than any system in the NFL (NFL high 230 attempts), and Dobbins ran RPO more than any collegiate back (57%). Dobbins fits a need.

I love drafting talented players who fit a system perfectly.

I agree, he’s in a perfect situation to the point I’d still draft him despite my concerns. It’s actually strange how perfect the backs landing spots were. Clyde and Taylor go without saying but Akers to the Rams is also ideal - if anyone is going to get the most out of his receiving ability it’s McVay.

[djeternal2]

TL;DR "My track record over the past three seasons is near 100%", "Do not waste your 1.02 on this kid (Jonathan Taylor). He's not a major bust like DH, RJ3, or Penny (all guys I've hated with a passion in the past) but he's not worth your top 6 pick either.", "However, some replies have turned abusive and either a direct attack on my character or methods.", therefore don't attack my methods.

In everything I read his character was not brought into question unless you count where he admitted to lying about his position on Ballage to try and dupe an owner in a trade.

- from DDs 2018 RB report

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=160647&hilit=2018+r ... t&start=60

"BONUS:
-- Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be #2 RB from this class."

- also from DDs 2018 RB report

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=160647&hilit=2018+r ... &start=270

Another guy who didn't read it. It clearly says at the top "YEAR 1 RANKINGS". In the following page I gave my actual dynasty values.

If you read further (you didn't, I'll do it here for you) I said that Wilkins doesn't have any real value, and that the only reason he's worth owning is because he can be drafted in the 4th and traded for a future 1st or 2nd when (not if, WHEN) he takes over #1 duties. I was dead right.

I don't have Wilkins above Penny or Jones. If you read it (you didn't, I'll do it for you again) they are all the same tier/color for year 1. Jones and Penny's value tanked to a 2nd... same as Wilkins early in the year if you flipped him like I did. I was right..... again.

Ballage the same value as Chubb because I didn't expect the Browns to ever make the right choice, plus they had Hyde & Duke. Ballage has great skills and I thought for sure Gore/Drake would get hurt. They didn't until towards the end of the year, and in the two games the Ballage was allowed to share the rock, he went 24-170-1. So I'm wrong on these two because the Browns wised up and shipped Hyde and the Dolphins RBs never got hurt? I'll take that.

Everyone was touting Penny as the guy to own behind Barkley & most were touting Jones as a 1st round pick at the very least, except for the very few of you (3?) who PMd me that you agreed but were afraid to say it outloud for fear of being retaliated on like I am. NP buds, I'll do it for you. Hell, I didn't even have him as a 2nd rounder. RIGHT AGAIN OMG?

I sang high praises for KJ as the #2 RB to own in this draft class. Was I right? You tell me.

And the thing I'm loving more is this up-coming rookie draft. The last few were easy (Zeke, Fournette, Barkley), but this year.... oh baby. Montgomery is a JOKE compared to the guy who should be considered a top 3 candidate. There's a guy I really want and by the looks of it early on, he's gonna be cheap. Not as good as Zeke or Barkley, but definitely better than Fournette, and easily a top 5 or top 10 RB down the road. Now the trick is...... do I disclose all this, or keep it for myself like I usually do every year and then tell you all your mistakes after the rookie drafts are over? Hmmm.....

PS: I'm being over-jerky on purpose. I like it.

"I've talked about the Ballage stuff. I was trying to induce a trade. All of that should be ignored." -

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=198325&p=1818918&hi ... e#p1818918


From my search Mike's first article with DLF was 4/5/19 so the Ballage stuff was posted to the forum prior to being a DLF writer. That said what he has posted the last 3 months is imo right up there with the Ballage stuff. From his own words he was being bombastic to "make a name for himself". So being a DLF writer was not enough for Mike based on his own words and DLF has allowed this to continue on. So congrats Mike on becoming the DLF version of Stephen A Smith. I for one will vote with my wallet and not reup my premium sub. I don't need to pay to read this trash.


For those wondering why I posted this it's because not all forum members can remember or were around for the earlier posts/threads. So for sake of disclosure I posted this. If anyone wants to dig further just click on Mike's profile for his posts on the message boards or search for Mike Havens for the articles he has written.

[Shankopotamus]

My thoughts / rankings on the running back class:

CEH: Was my 1b to Taylor’s 1a pre draft, with the landing spot vaulting him to number 1. My only concern was pass protection, but if old man McCoy can get snaps last year Clyde should see the field enough until he gets better at it anyway (which he will). Every other aspect of his game is elite.

Taylor: Whilst film isn’t as explosive as you’d expect for someone with his athletic profile (it is long periods of vanilla play until an impressive breakaway run in a lot of cases) - the impressive plays are impressive. He has ideal size, speed and landing spot, and should develop into a complete back.

I would consider drafting Lamb / Jeudy here

Dobbins - No athletic profile is a bummer but he’s obviously athletic on film. I have concerns about the huge holes he is left to run through, and a lot of his production comes outside - which I don’t like at the college level, but once again the landing spot is perfect and the production is hard to ignore.

I would consider drafting Jefferson / Aiyuk etc here based on team needs.

Akers - More athlete than running back, but he is very explosive and a weapon in the passing game. I can see him hanging around ala Atlanta Tevin Coleman at a minimum. At least tries to keep it inside and doesn’t bounce unless he has to, and fights through contact for extra yards. Landing spot has him above Swift, but he’s easily the biggest boom bust in the top 5. Probably the best in pass pro.

Swift - Have never really gotten the hype, he doesn’t seem explosive to me, or as dangerous in the passing game as he is billed. He is still a decent back and has great agility, but below average play strength and a terrible landing spot have me looking to take a top wide receiver over him at this pick.

Daylight - value picks in the second / late second

Dillon - Not a massive fan but I would draft him at his current ADP based on draft capital alone. Play speed doesn’t match his combine and he has limited agility imo. Doesn’t offer much in the passing game but I think that was more scheme than an issue of his. He shows potential inside and obviously has a workhorse build so I would take a flier.

Kelley: Personal favourite pre draft with a decent landing spot. One cut runner with explosion, keeps it inside and gets upfield. Played through injury in 2019, his 2018 film is much more explosive and what I expect to see in the NFL.

There is nobody else that I would draft at their current ADP over an available wide receiver, as I don’t think any of them will make it.

Nice breakdown.

Mike and the other guy need to have a beer together and hug it out though.

[dustyroads]

I don't mind feedback or differing opinions on a fantasy perspective.

Oh good! I was worried this was going to be another rant about criticism.

However,

Uh-oh.

some replies have turned abusive and either a direct attack on my character or methods.

Your methods have been directly attacked, yes. Is that a problem? Isn't that what we're supposed to do? Criticize the way we think about this stuff so that we can improve?

As for your character, I haven't seen that. People have criticized your persona, sure. You referred to your persona here as "egotistical". I haven't seen anybody call into question whether you're a good family man or a dutiful worker. This seems like a mischaracterization. I'm sure you're a good guy! I just don't think your running back analysis is particularly useful to anybody. They're entirely different constructs. I bet Nelson Mandela would have sucked at fantasy football; that's not a criticism of his character!

This is not encouraging for others who read such things -- specifically new users. Those who have legitimate opinions might feel prohibited from sharing due to fear of similar judgement and/or retaliation. I personally find it to be immature and a disservice to the community in general.

First, that this will happen is absolute conjecture. Second, it misses the point. You haven't been criticized for your opinions so much as the way you presented and subsequently misrepresented them. Nobody is criticizing you because they're secretly Jonathan Taylor's dad; but because you claimed a near 100% hit rate. If your point here is that this is going to discourage people from claiming to be the most accurate "analyst" and then subsequently claim that they didn't miss on Kalen Ballage, they were just trying to mess with a league-mate, well, yeah. It might be a deterrent to that.

Feel free to compare my and other folks responses to your threads vs. the responses in Ghosted's WR thread. Your threads consistently devolve into this because of how you present your work and how you respond to criticism.

I've written dozens of in-depth articles for 6 years on these forums before being suggested as a writer for DLF by other members of this community. The top brass at DLF reached out to me after viewing my posts. My RB accuracy and statistical pieces on draft pick trading is what opened the door. I had to go through a series of interviews and my forum posts were further scrutinized for accuracy. Eventually getting offered the position should give credibility to the way I do my analysis.

It doesn't. Your analysis should be judged on its own merits. This "well I write for DLF so my stuff must be good" is an appeal to authority logical fallacy. In an era where the number of dynasty "analysts" is quickly approaching the number of dynasty players, this "status" only reflects that writing dynasty articles is what you choose to do with your free time. Suggesting that your thoughts should be evaluated differently than everybody else's because you worked so hard to get "dlf" at the beginning of your name on an internet forum isn't fair or correct.

One of my first articles was a three-piece series on last year's rookie RBs. Pre-draft I said:

-- Josh Jacobs was the best/safest for now but Miles Sanders is "the most exciting". I then said Sanders would be better in the long run and backed that up by taking him 1.01 in my rookie draft. I won that 32 team league in part because of that selection.
-- Monty was a risk and even suggested that if he lands in Chicago "there might be some problems".
-- I loved Devin Singletary as the best late value. I didn't think he would be a work horse in any system but he "would easily be a great flex play week in, week out.".
-- Darrell Henderson had too many red flags to be draftable and "will struggle to progress at the next level".
-- Everyone else was worth avoiding.
(Proof 1 / Proof 2)

You've also had Kerryon and Michel and Ballage ahaead of Nick Chubb, and Kenneth Dixon ahead of Derrick Henry. I'm not sure I understand the value of reposting your 2019 rankings one year out.

My methods are under constant scrutiny by a select few, but I give paid subscribers my best possible work, and I believe the results speak for themselves. I don't know what else I could have done to be more accurate than that.

I would implore you to simply let your results speak for themselves as opposed to constantly trying to explain why your misses are actually hits.

The only reason I felt compelled to reply is because these forums have had the greatest increase in new users in its history. I want them to not only feel welcomed, but also safe to share opinions and contribute to conversations, and to ensure they're getting quality work from the best writers DLF can find. I can't hold a candle to the in-depth analysis and research that other writers and podcasters do on a daily basis. I'm in awe every time I converse with them on the work chat. The products they produce truly are the greatest assets to dynasty league football that one can find anywhere on the internet.

I'd love it if the conversation reverted back to the topic. I realize it might be a stretch at this point and I may need to temporarily lock it until something happens and players ranks once again need to be discussed. I'd mostly love it if civility returned to our conversations, as the negativity is getting tiresome.

I think this is a deflection. You don't want people to criticize you... because criticizing you is going to scare off new users? C'mon, man. Apples and oranges. You earned this by telling everybody how great you were and then unravelling when some people poked a few holes in your "analysis." It has nothing to do with new users sharing their opinions. After all this time, it seems like you still think people dragged you like this because they're emotionally invested in Cam Akers or something. You've been criticized for doing stuff that nobody else does.

This whole thing feels a lot like a transparent appeal to the moderators to censor further criticism of your work- especially where you invoke "new users." I'd humbly suggest that censoring the general user base is far more detrimental to the community than structured criticism of analysis.

I'd mostly love it if civility returned to our conversations, as the negativity is getting tiresome.

I've been perfectly civil here. Civility is not the absence of dissent.

Amazing post... couldn't agree more. And being a new user myself (at least with regards to having an account and posting instead of just anon lurking), this kind of logically and factually based scrutiny, presented in such a clear format, and done in an objective and respectful way is what keeps me coming back.