2021 QB thread

[bjd5211]

This is a timely thread I think for those in 1 QB leagues who are considering taking Burrow late in round 1. Given how deep the 2020 WR class is would it make more sense to not reach on Burrow and just wait for the 2021 QB class?

The '21 WR class is looking like it could be just as strong, and waiting until next year to draft a QB means you probably won't get QB production out of these 2 drafts until '22, since QBs won't typically produce great as rookies but can break out year 2. 1QB leagues Burrow is currently going about mid 2nd round, and I think that's a good place to be drafting him. I wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence and Fields go higher next year due to their hyoe being touted as elite prospects since High School. Burrow will probably be a slightly better value, and start contributing sooner.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Lawrence: QB1 upside with some risk, worth an early 2021 1st in Superflex, very nice hair, career length projection, 5-21 years.

Fields: QB2 upside with some risk, worth a mid 2021 1st in Superflex, career length projection, 4-13 years.

[Vcize]

He "struggled" last year, yet still ended up as PFF's highest rated college QB not named Joe Burrow. He's just a victim of his own success and the expectations coming out of his Freshman year. If he had been a backup his entire Freshman year and last year was his first year as a starter it would have been considered a massive success.

To some extent.

It would not have been difficult for any decent QB to do well in that situation last year. We are talking about an offense loaded with 1st round NFL players, playing against a collection of some of the worst defenses in the country. Clemson's schedule last year included only 1 game against a top 25 defense, and a whopping SIX games against defenses ranked outside the top 100. 100!

They played only four games against top 50 defenses last year.

In those four games he threw for 241 yards per game, 7.1ypa, with 4 total passing TDs.

By college standards those are pretty miserable games against merely top 50 defenses while being surrounded by probably the 2nd best offensive talent in the country.

The dude had an amazing freshman season and is the easy 1.01 next year, but let's not pretend this past year's lack of progression wasn't very disappointing just because a bunch of NFL 1st rounders took screen passes for 70 yards or got 10 yards behind the defense against Wofford and Boston College. Clemson had four real games this year and the BEST of them was the one where Lawrence completed 54% of his passes at 7.5ypa.

The guy is a legitimately exciting prospect, but he really needs to take that next step this season that we all thought he was going to take last year. If anything he regressed last season (though his rushing numbers did improve, which is exciting for fantasy purposes).

[bjd5211]

He didn't just do well though, he was better than everyone except the guy who had the greatest season of all-time.

[FantasyFreak]

He didn't just do well though, he was better than everyone except the guy who had the greatest season of all-time.

As was stated above: He racked up his stats against terrible defences and struggled against good or mediocre ones. BTW, Tua was much better on a per game basis to Lawrence in most people's opinion. Even Hurts and Fields were viewed to have better seasons by most. I don't think Lawrence was the 2nd best QB last year. Maybe PFF did, but they also had Zach Moss as their top back, so how much are we really taking their stuff as gospel?

[bjd5211]

He didn't just do well though, he was better than everyone except the guy who had the greatest season of all-time.

It's almost like you didn't read anything he wrote. He racked up his stats against terrible defences and struggled against good or mediocre ones. BTW, Tua was much better on a per game basis to Lawrence in most people's opinion. Even Hurts and Fields were viewed to have better seasons by most. I don't think Lawrence was the 2nd best QB last year. Maybe PFF did, but they also had Zach Moss as their top back, so how much are we really taking their stuff as gospel?

And there are A LOT of teams in college football, QBs who also went against bad defenses or had talent advantages, and none of them graded as well as him except Burrow. PFF isn't the end all be all, but they have a far more thorough grading system than your "he doesn't look great under pressure" or "he needs to be more accurate".

And like I said, if he had similar circumstances as Fields and this season was his first as a starter it would have been considered a massive success. He's a 19/20 year old kid who had higher expectations than really any QB ever at his age and point in his career, and went on to have one of the best seasons ever for a true Sophomore and yet still managed to fall short of everyone's expectations. Unless he had the season that Burrow just had he was pretty much destined to have people coming out saying he was over rated/over hyped/not as good as advertised.

[FantasyFreak]

He didn't just do well though, he was better than everyone except the guy who had the greatest season of all-time.

It's almost like you didn't read anything he wrote. He racked up his stats against terrible defences and struggled against good or mediocre ones. BTW, Tua was much better on a per game basis to Lawrence in most people's opinion. Even Hurts and Fields were viewed to have better seasons by most. I don't think Lawrence was the 2nd best QB last year. Maybe PFF did, but they also had Zach Moss as their top back, so how much are we really taking their stuff as gospel?

And there are A LOT of teams in college football, QBs who also went against bad defenses or had talent advantages, and none of them graded as well as him except Burrow. PFF isn't the end all be all, but they have a far more thorough grading system than your "he doesn't look great under pressure" or "he needs to be more accurate".

And like I said, if he had similar circumstances as Fields and this season was his first as a starter it would have been considered a massive success. He's a 19/20 year old kid who had higher expectations than really any QB ever at his age and point in his career, and went on to have one of the best seasons ever for a true Sophomore and yet still managed to fall short of everyone's expectations. Unless he had the season that Burrow just had he was pretty much destined to have people coming out saying he was over rated/over hyped/not as good as advertised.

I still think he's a great prospect and is the clear 1.01 at this point. I just don't think he's already a guy we can peg for sure fire elite status as an NFL QB. He has all the tools to be that, but the biggest issues he will have are improving his accuracy and performance under pressure, and I'm not the only persons to suggest this. That is definitely within his range of outcomes, I'm not suggesting it isn't.

[ravn88]

It's almost like you didn't read anything he wrote. He racked up his stats against terrible defences and struggled against good or mediocre ones. BTW, Tua was much better on a per game basis to Lawrence in most people's opinion. Even Hurts and Fields were viewed to have better seasons by most. I don't think Lawrence was the 2nd best QB last year. Maybe PFF did, but they also had Zach Moss as their top back, so how much are we really taking their stuff as gospel?

And there are A LOT of teams in college football, QBs who also went against bad defenses or had talent advantages, and none of them graded as well as him except Burrow. PFF isn't the end all be all, but they have a far more thorough grading system than your "he doesn't look great under pressure" or "he needs to be more accurate".

And like I said, if he had similar circumstances as Fields and this season was his first as a starter it would have been considered a massive success. He's a 19/20 year old kid who had higher expectations than really any QB ever at his age and point in his career, and went on to have one of the best seasons ever for a true Sophomore and yet still managed to fall short of everyone's expectations. Unless he had the season that Burrow just had he was pretty much destined to have people coming out saying he was over rated/over hyped/not as good as advertised.

I still think he's a great prospect and is the clear 1.01 at this point. I just don't think he's already a guy we can peg for sure fire elite status as an NFL QB. He has all the tools to be that, but the biggest issues he will have are improving his accuracy and performance under pressure, and I'm not the only persons to suggest this. That is definitely within his range of outcomes, I'm not suggesting it isn't.

In one league ive got 4 2021 1sts. I was wondering if I Should go all in for the last of the early 1sts.

[ArrylT]

There is one league I am in that has a solid devy component where a lot of the owners go "gaga" over devy picks. You'll see proven studs go for devy players that are 1-2 years out. Anyways here are the 2021 QBs I've seen drafted so far:

Jake Bentley
Matt Corral
KJ Costello
Dustin Crum
JT Daniels
Justin Fields
Josh Jackson
D'Eriq King
Trey Lance
Trevor Lawrence
Adrian Martinez
Davis Mills
Tanner Morgan
Jamie Newman
Kenny Pickett
Brock Purdy

[FantasyFreak]

There is one league I am in that has a solid devy component where a lot of the owners go "gaga" over devy picks. You'll see proven studs go for devy players that are 1-2 years out. Anyways here are the 2021 QBs I've seen drafted so far:

Jake Bentley
Matt Corral
KJ Costello
Dustin Crum
JT Daniels
Justin Fields
Josh Jackson
D'Eriq King
Trey Lance
Trevor Lawrence
Adrian Martinez
Davis Mills
Tanner Morgan
Jamie Newman
Kenny Pickett
Brock Purdy

Sounds like a league of rubes.

[ericanadian]

If Lawrence/Fields go 1/2, I wonder if they’ll break the fairly long run of guys going 1/2 where one is pretty good and the other sucks.

1993: Bledsoe/Mirer
1998: Manning/Leaf
1999: Couch/McNabb
2012: Luck/Griffin
2015: Winston/Mariota (Sometimes they both suck)
2016: Goff/Wentz

[bjd5211]

I think Fields is better than just about any 2nd best QB prospect we've seen in a draft before, and would easily be the #1 QB in the draft most years. He just happens to be in the same class as a guy who has a chance at being the best QB prospect of all-time. I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility that Fields surpasses Lawrence for #1 though.

[ArrylT]

There is one league I am in that has a solid devy component where a lot of the owners go "gaga" over devy picks. You'll see proven studs go for devy players that are 1-2 years out. Anyways here are the 2021 QBs I've seen drafted so far:

Jake Bentley
Matt Corral
KJ Costello
Dustin Crum
JT Daniels
Justin Fields
Josh Jackson
D'Eriq King
Trey Lance
Trevor Lawrence
Adrian Martinez
Davis Mills
Tanner Morgan
Jamie Newman
Kenny Pickett
Brock Purdy

Sounds like a league of rubes.

Of the 48 owners in the league I have no doubt there are some newbies. To each their own and kudos if they are able to grab the next Mahomes or Jackson.

[FantasyFreak]

There is one league I am in that has a solid devy component where a lot of the owners go "gaga" over devy picks. You'll see proven studs go for devy players that are 1-2 years out. Anyways here are the 2021 QBs I've seen drafted so far:

Jake Bentley
Matt Corral
KJ Costello
Dustin Crum
JT Daniels
Justin Fields
Josh Jackson
D'Eriq King
Trey Lance
Trevor Lawrence
Adrian Martinez
Davis Mills
Tanner Morgan
Jamie Newman
Kenny Pickett
Brock Purdy

Sounds like a league of rubes.

Of the 48 owners in the league I have no doubt there are some newbies. To each their own and kudos if they are able to grab the next Mahomes or Jackson.

A much nicer way of saying it, for sure.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

If Lawrence/Fields go 1/2, I wonder if they’ll break the fairly long run of guys going 1/2 where one is pretty good and the other sucks.

1993: Bledsoe/Mirer
1998: Manning/Leaf
1999: Couch/McNabb
2012: Luck/Griffin
2015: Winston/Mariota (Sometimes they both suck)
2016: Goff/Wentz

Goff and Wentz? Which one sucks?