Any love for Love?

[dynastyninja]

I really liked his junior season. Last year was pretty disappointing plus the injury issues. I do love buying in the 3rd because that's worth it to me.

All that said, I am extremely high on Guice and don't think Love will pass him in WAS. I own both, though, because I believe in Love's tape from two years ago.

[Sriracha]

I expect pretty much zero out of him. The hit rate on fourth round RBs is extremely low. Not sure why the dropoff is there, but your success stories over the last twenty years are:

Darren Sproles : Unique talent who people dismissed due to his size.
Lamar Miller : Dropped due to a shoulder injury.
Devonta Freeman : Product of an outside zone system. Was on the verge of being replaced when they changed schemes and suddenly became a world beater. We’ll see how he holds up now that they’re moving on to Koetter.
Marlon Mack : Probably early to declare him a success, but he looked pretty good last year and is in a good situation to continue to succeed.

That’s out of 85 RBs drafted in the fourth round. It’s not like the list is made up of a bunch of bums no one expected to succeed either. I agree that his price is low, but I feel like you can still get guys like Scotty Miller deep in drafts and I would much prefer to go that route. If you need an RB, I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot with Love though.

Draft capital (as valuable as it is for RBs) is just one piece to the puzzle. He may have been drafted in the 4th round, but WSH picked him up as a luxury pick because "He was too good to pass up" in the 4th.

Since 2000, there are 18 guys that have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season:

Fantasy Successes - LT, Larry Johnson (to a degree), Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Melvin Gordon, CMC

Some Success/Still in the League - Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman

TBD - Rashaad Penny, D'onta Foreman, Jonathan Taylor (Current Wisconsin RB)

Busts - Pumphrey, Andre Williams, Donald Brown, Kevin Smith (was replaced by Jahvid Best + Injuries), JJ Arrington, Damien Anderson

TL;DR, could be a 50/50 shot that Love pans out to be good/solid, at this point, we know nothing about Guice on an NFL field. I'd gladly take Love in the late 3rd (which is where I've drafted him in 2 leagues).

The guy had two really good years at Stanford, one of which was behind CMC, 2nd in Heisman voting in 2017.

All of the "busts"/TBDs (except Pumphrey, andre Williams, Anderson-- Possibly) got a chance to be the guy; and none of those guys averaged 8.1 YPC, or 3 years of > 7 YPC-- closest was Rashaad Penny who did it at San Diego St.. Jonathan Taylor is likely to go in the top 3 rookie picks next year did it with a 7.1 YPC

Every player can have a bad season as they struggle through injuries, and Love's > 7YPC for the 3 years prior to this year lends credence to the notion that last season is the outlier, not 2017.

Who in the 3rd round is going to give you these odds to hit, while having Love's kind of Ceiling?

[ArrylT]

Great job killer of giants!

[ericanadian]

I expect pretty much zero out of him. The hit rate on fourth round RBs is extremely low. Not sure why the dropoff is there, but your success stories over the last twenty years are:

Darren Sproles : Unique talent who people dismissed due to his size.
Lamar Miller : Dropped due to a shoulder injury.
Devonta Freeman : Product of an outside zone system. Was on the verge of being replaced when they changed schemes and suddenly became a world beater. We’ll see how he holds up now that they’re moving on to Koetter.
Marlon Mack : Probably early to declare him a success, but he looked pretty good last year and is in a good situation to continue to succeed.

That’s out of 85 RBs drafted in the fourth round. It’s not like the list is made up of a bunch of bums no one expected to succeed either. I agree that his price is low, but I feel like you can still get guys like Scotty Miller deep in drafts and I would much prefer to go that route. If you need an RB, I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot with Love though.

Draft capital (as valuable as it is for RBs) is just one piece to the puzzle. He may have been drafted in the 4th round, but WSH picked him up as a luxury pick because "He was too good to pass up" in the 4th.

Since 2000, there are 18 guys that have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season:

Fantasy Successes - LT, Larry Johnson (to a degree), Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Melvin Gordon, CMC

Some Success/Still in the League - Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman

TBD - Rashaad Penny, D'onta Foreman, Jonathan Taylor (Current Wisconsin RB)

Busts - Pumphrey, Andre Williams, Donald Brown, Kevin Smith (was replaced by Jahvid Best + Injuries), JJ Arrington, Damien Anderson

TL;DR, could be a 50/50 shot that Love pans out to be good/solid, at this point, we know nothing about Guice on an NFL field. I'd gladly take Love in the late 3rd (which is where I've drafted him in 2 leagues).

The guy had two really good years at Stanford, one of which was behind CMC, 2nd in Heisman voting in 2017.

All of the "busts"/TBDs (except Pumphrey, andre Williams, Anderson-- Possibly) got a chance to be the guy; and none of those guys averaged 8.1 YPC, or 3 years of > 7 YPC-- closest was Rashaad Penny who did it at San Diego St.. Jonathan Taylor is likely to go in the top 3 rookie picks next year did it with a 7.1 YPC

Every player can have a bad season as they struggle through injuries, and Love's > 7YPC for the 3 years prior to this year lends credence to the notion that last season is the outlier, not 2017.

Who in the 3rd round is going to give you these odds to hit, while having Love's kind of Ceiling?

It is just one piece of the puzzle, but it’s a pretty big one. In the second list, every guy in the success/some success column was a 1st or 2nd round pick. Your only 4th+ rounders are in the busts pile

[Sriracha]

It is just one piece of the puzzle, but it’s a pretty big one. In the second list, every guy in the success/some success column was a 1st or 2nd round pick. Your only 4th+ rounders are in the busts pile

Is it the fact they were drafted in the 4th round, or is it that they weren't exciting enough prospects to go higher?

There's a pretty easy argument to make that the only reason Bryce Love fell to the 4th round is because of his injury; Based on comments by Jay Gruden that Bryce Love was just too good to pass up; it's safe to say that they had a higher than 4th round grade on him.

[ericanadian]

It is just one piece of the puzzle, but it’s a pretty big one. In the second list, every guy in the success/some success column was a 1st or 2nd round pick. Your only 4th+ rounders are in the busts pile

Is it the fact they were drafted in the 4th round, or is it that they weren't exciting enough prospects to go higher?

There's a pretty easy argument to make that the only reason Bryce Love fell to the 4th round is because of his injury; Based on comments by Jay Gruden that Bryce Love was just too good to pass up; it's safe to say that they had a higher than 4th round grade on him.

How far do you honestly think he fell? Yes, it will suck to not have him available for a year, but the recovery rate on an ACL is pretty clean at this point. There isn’t a lot of history of this sort of thing, so it’s mostly guesswork to determine where Love would’ve went. Willis McGahee & Marcus Lattimore are the first that come to mind, but both of those guys destroyed their knees.

[Sriracha]

It is just one piece of the puzzle, but it’s a pretty big one. In the second list, every guy in the success/some success column was a 1st or 2nd round pick. Your only 4th+ rounders are in the busts pile

Is it the fact they were drafted in the 4th round, or is it that they weren't exciting enough prospects to go higher?

There's a pretty easy argument to make that the only reason Bryce Love fell to the 4th round is because of his injury; Based on comments by Jay Gruden that Bryce Love was just too good to pass up; it's safe to say that they had a higher than 4th round grade on him.

How far do you honestly think he fell? Yes, it will suck to not have him available for a year, but the recovery rate on an ACL is pretty clean at this point. There isn’t a lot of history of this sort of thing, so it’s mostly guesswork to determine where Love would’ve went. Willis McGahee & Marcus Lattimore are the first that come to mind, but both of those guys destroyed their knees.

He got picked at pick 4.10 in the draft, It's a pretty safe bet that he would've gone at least in the 3rd and that would've been enough to pass the arbitrary 4th round threshold you've refrenced.

There were multiple reports that the NFL was worried about his knee injury, so if you're asking me to guess I think he fell out of the late 2nd round due to it.

[Titus Young's Lawyer]

I expect pretty much zero out of him. The hit rate on fourth round RBs is extremely low. Not sure why the dropoff is there, but your success stories over the last twenty years are:

Darren Sproles : Unique talent who people dismissed due to his size.
Lamar Miller : Dropped due to a shoulder injury.
Devonta Freeman : Product of an outside zone system. Was on the verge of being replaced when they changed schemes and suddenly became a world beater. We’ll see how he holds up now that they’re moving on to Koetter.
Marlon Mack : Probably early to declare him a success, but he looked pretty good last year and is in a good situation to continue to succeed.

That’s out of 85 RBs drafted in the fourth round. It’s not like the list is made up of a bunch of bums no one expected to succeed either. I agree that his price is low, but I feel like you can still get guys like Scotty Miller deep in drafts and I would much prefer to go that route. If you need an RB, I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot with Love though.

You forgot about Cohen and White, which means that there are 5 current RB’s drafted in the 4th round that are valuable fantasy assets.

[ericanadian]

I expect pretty much zero out of him. The hit rate on fourth round RBs is extremely low. Not sure why the dropoff is there, but your success stories over the last twenty years are:

Darren Sproles : Unique talent who people dismissed due to his size.
Lamar Miller : Dropped due to a shoulder injury.
Devonta Freeman : Product of an outside zone system. Was on the verge of being replaced when they changed schemes and suddenly became a world beater. We’ll see how he holds up now that they’re moving on to Koetter.
Marlon Mack : Probably early to declare him a success, but he looked pretty good last year and is in a good situation to continue to succeed.

That’s out of 85 RBs drafted in the fourth round. It’s not like the list is made up of a bunch of bums no one expected to succeed either. I agree that his price is low, but I feel like you can still get guys like Scotty Miller deep in drafts and I would much prefer to go that route. If you need an RB, I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot with Love though.

You forgot about Cohen and White, which means that there are 5 current RB’s drafted in the 4th round that are valuable fantasy assets.

Fair enough. Five out of eighty five still isn’t great odds. I don’t even hate Love. I just think he’s a dart throw and I have dart throws I prefer available in the same area.

[Lumps]

If Love came out in 2018 instead, he was a locked in 2nd rounder. He may have been a 1st rounder. Does no one remember this?

Love, rated as the No. 2 draft-eligible running back by ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.

Love set FBS records with 13 runs of 50 yards or more and 8.1 yards per carry, which broke the previous record of 7.8 yards set by Nebraska's Mike Rozier in 1983.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... ior-season

Love's decision was the last notable one for underclassmen eligible to declare by the Jan. 15 deadline. The star running back was slotted as a top-30 prospect on CBS Sports and the No. 3 overall running back in the class

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... nior-year/

No one knows exactly where Love would have gone in the NFL draft. He stated in SI that he was “projected to be a top-30 pick.” That was the high end of what I saw. Despite his explosive speed and impressive production, some scouts had Love pegged as a second- or third-round selection, mostly because of his size.

https://www.pressdemocrat.com/sports/86 ... -risking-a

[joeya2001]

Ok I’ll bite, dropped AP for him

[themburns]

He's a fine flyer, but to leave it off as saying he would have been a high pick last year is a little misleading. Love played in 10 games before his ACL tear and it was a much worse season than he had in 2017. That's a pretty large red flag unless there is some context to Stanford's season I'm missing. Before CMC, Stanford had a reputation as a school that put up overinflated numbers for their backs. (e.g. Toby Gerhart, Tyler Gaffney) I would like in at the right price, but that'd be like a back end 2nd at the most right now.

[Titus Young's Lawyer]

I expect pretty much zero out of him. The hit rate on fourth round RBs is extremely low. Not sure why the dropoff is there, but your success stories over the last twenty years are:

Darren Sproles : Unique talent who people dismissed due to his size.
Lamar Miller : Dropped due to a shoulder injury.
Devonta Freeman : Product of an outside zone system. Was on the verge of being replaced when they changed schemes and suddenly became a world beater. We’ll see how he holds up now that they’re moving on to Koetter.
Marlon Mack : Probably early to declare him a success, but he looked pretty good last year and is in a good situation to continue to succeed.

That’s out of 85 RBs drafted in the fourth round. It’s not like the list is made up of a bunch of bums no one expected to succeed either. I agree that his price is low, but I feel like you can still get guys like Scotty Miller deep in drafts and I would much prefer to go that route. If you need an RB, I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot with Love though.

You forgot about Cohen and White, which means that there are 5 current RB’s drafted in the 4th round that are valuable fantasy assets.

Fair enough. Five out of eighty five still isn’t great odds. I don’t even hate Love. I just think he’s a dart throw and I have dart throws I prefer available in the same area.

Obviously there are others too like Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber III, did you even look up the 4th round picks for the last 20 years? Every draft pick is a dart throw. What we know is that draft position is the best indicator of fantasy success and therefore Love is more likely to be fantasy relevant than 5th round Scott Miller.

[Sriracha]

He's a fine flyer, but to leave it off as saying he would have been a high pick last year is a little misleading. Love played in 10 games before his ACL tear and it was a much worse season than he had in 2017. That's a pretty large red flag unless there is some context to Stanford's season I'm missing. Before CMC, Stanford had a reputation as a school that put up overinflated numbers for their backs. (e.g. Toby Gerhart, Tyler Gaffney) I would like in at the right price, but that'd be like a back end 2nd at the most right now.

Stanford's O-line was bad. Injuries led to it being the worst unit they've fielded in over 10 years.

Bryce Love's YPC as a freshman: (29 attempts) 7.8 ypc, as a sophomore: (111 attempts) 7.1, as a junior (263 attempts): 8.1, as a senior (166 attempts): 4.5.

Which of those seasons was most likely the outlier?

He's definitely a dart throw given all of the unknowns about him.. but he's a quality dart throw.

[maxhyde]

I expect pretty much zero out of him. The hit rate on fourth round RBs is extremely low. Not sure why the dropoff is there, but your success stories over the last twenty years are:

Darren Sproles : Unique talent who people dismissed due to his size.
Lamar Miller : Dropped due to a shoulder injury.
Devonta Freeman : Product of an outside zone system. Was on the verge of being replaced when they changed schemes and suddenly became a world beater. We’ll see how he holds up now that they’re moving on to Koetter.
Marlon Mack : Probably early to declare him a success, but he looked pretty good last year and is in a good situation to continue to succeed.

That’s out of 85 RBs drafted in the fourth round. It’s not like the list is made up of a bunch of bums no one expected to succeed either. I agree that his price is low, but I feel like you can still get guys like Scotty Miller deep in drafts and I would much prefer to go that route. If you need an RB, I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot with Love though.

You forgot about Cohen and White, which means that there are 5 current RB’s drafted in the 4th round that are valuable fantasy assets.

Fair enough. Five out of eighty five still isn’t great odds. I don’t even hate Love. I just think he’s a dart throw and I have dart throws I prefer available in the same area.

The guy is a solid flyer for a 3rd round pick. Certainly showed more talent in college than alot of guys drafted before him so what the hell. Highly doubt WAS re-signs thompson on anything but a very cheap team friendly deal and I would imagine they see Love as a direct replacement for him more than Guice
I am guessing he is a much higher pick than 4th round if not injured because he probably tests well