Nick Chubb Thread: Chubb = Stud

[Defender]

Just saw that PFF gave Chubb a 97.3 elusiveness rating.

And here I thought they only had eyes for Duke.

[Hambone72]

I dont understand why Chubb is being drafted ahead of Royce Freeman. Chubb is in a committee and with Duke Johnson in town for a long time, lacks PPR upside.

[FantasyFreak]

I dont understand why Chubb is being drafted ahead of Royce Freeman. Chubb is in a committee and with Duke Johnson in town for a long time, lacks PPR upside.

Because he's the better football player. Not hard to see why. You assume Chubb is in a committee. Chubb is the best RB in that backfield quite easily IMO. Sure, Duke is the passing down back, on third and long, but Royce Freeman was specifically described by John Elway as a "thumper". "1st and 2nd down ". Out of Elway's mouth. Chubb is the better prospect. Drafting for situation gives you David Cobb. Royce is better, but there were people drafting Cobb over DJ because of "situation".

[sloth8u]

i cannot believe you guys brought up dj. he is irrelevant.

You can't believe the guy they just signed to a decent extension got brought up in a thread about why Chubb is falling?

i had the exact same thought lol

I don't have a crystal ball..... But I will argue that duke had a career year, a year that he will never come close to duplicating. Highly doubt he receives 100 targets (previous high of 75). 7 td will be tough to duplicate, 2 was the previous high. Hard to imagine there will be many opportunities on the ground for him.

The offense added Haley, Taylor, Hyde, Chubb, Gordon, landry, and Coleman has flashed when healthy.

Its not my intent to turn this into a duke thread... But imo, he is irrelevant in the big picture. He isn't and never will be a lead back. Haley has shown that he will use 1rb if he can. Time will tell with Chubb. Hyde caught 60 balls last year. Imo, this duke love is merely bias comming off last year... A year that simply is very unlikely to be duplicated ever again.

[BigJoeWall72]

I don't have a crystal ball..... But I will argue that duke had a career year, a year that he will never come close to duplicating. Highly doubt he receives 100 targets (previous high of 75). 7 td will be tough to duplicate, 2 was the previous high. Hard to imagine there will be many opportunities on the ground for him.

The offense added Haley, Taylor, Hyde, Chubb, Gordon, landry, and Coleman has flashed when healthy.

Its not my intent to turn this into a duke thread... But imo, he is irrelevant in the big picture. He isn't and never will be a lead back. Haley has shown that he will use 1rb if he can. Time will tell with Chubb. Hyde caught 60 balls last year. Imo, this duke love is merely bias comming off last year... A year that simply is very unlikely to be duplicated ever again.

I doubt that anyone thinks Duke is in the conversation of being a lead back ahead of Chubb, but it sure is a pretty reasonable thought process to think that Duke will at least somewhat cap Chubb's production while the two share a backfield.

I don't understand how a RB in the exact same backfield as Chubb that got a contract extension AFTER the Browns drafted Chubb could possibly be "irrelevant in the big picture". The next few seasons are a sizable chunk of the big picture.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

remember back in 2007 when all day was drafted by the vikings. they already had a good rb on the roster in chester taylor, who happened to gain 1500 yards from scrimmage the year before.

when ap was ready in 2007 they didn't hesitate to give him the ball, taylor or no taylor.

i believe chubb will have a similar career path with the browns.

[sloth8u]

I don't understand how a RB in the exact same backfield as Chubb that got a contract extension AFTER the Browns drafted Chubb could possibly be "irrelevant in the big picture". The next few seasons are a sizable chunk of the big picture.

i believe that there are other rb's in the past that were extended only to see their role reduced, also other rb's that had a very good year only to see the team draft the rb of the future...again, if you believe that duke is likely to cut in to a "stud's" touches...you are an owner passing on chubb imo. those drafting chubb are of the belief that they just landed a high end rb. the real discussion about obstacles imo, should be hyde.

my opinion here is that people are staying away because of the muddy situation and that we are talking about the browns. we have no idea how this will play out, but duke is not likely to get in the way of whether or not chubb is a high end rb or not.

as a side note, the browns could have likely drafted barkley and landed their qb instead of db if they did not believe in chubb (or that he would be there) the fact they paid duke is irrelevant. he's the 3rd best back on the team. they just signed a 3 down back before taking chubb. for those arguing that duke is a factor here missed the signing of hyde apparently.... its a waiting game for those of us drafting chubb? it may be....but duke johnson is not going to get in the way of chubb being the player that we drafted imo.

this discussion reminds me of the day that dion lewis signed...a wonderful opportunity to buy low on henry while others are trying to figure out the numbers of a contract and what that means. chubb has been slipping in drafts while owners are trying to decide how they feel about duke and hyde.....rather than focusing on where the talent is in the draft.

[BigJoeWall72]

I don't understand how a RB in the exact same backfield as Chubb that got a contract extension AFTER the Browns drafted Chubb could possibly be "irrelevant in the big picture". The next few seasons are a sizable chunk of the big picture.

they just signed a 3 down back before taking chubb. for those arguing that duke is a factor here missed the signing of hyde apparently....

Free agency (and contract extensions) before and after the draft are totally different things. The Browns signed Hyde not knowing how their draft process would play out (the finalization of their big board, trades, other teams moves, etc.). Then they were able to get Chubb, and after he was already in house they signed Duke Johnson to a contract extension. I think if there is a RB that gets phased out of the offense, the odds-on favorite has got to be Hyde.

I don't know if anyone is saying Chubb is going to be a bum. I'm certainly not saying that. Maybe we're just arguing semantics...

I just think this is way more likely to be a Freeman/Coleman, Howard/Cohen, CJA/CMC, etc. situation (those are just for reference! lol) for the next couple years, as opposed to Chubb being a Zeke, Gurley, Le'Veon, Fournette, DJ type. Like I said, maybe that just ends up being for a couple-three years, but that's half or more of Chubb's (first?) contract in Cleveland.

Or like sloth8u says, maybe the rest of the backfield fades away and Chubb is a beast with a massive workload. I just think the timing of the Duke Johnson extension says as much as how he actually plays.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't understand how a RB in the exact same backfield as Chubb that got a contract extension AFTER the Browns drafted Chubb could possibly be "irrelevant in the big picture". The next few seasons are a sizable chunk of the big picture.

they just signed a 3 down back before taking chubb. for those arguing that duke is a factor here missed the signing of hyde apparently....

Free agency (and contract extensions) before and after the draft are totally different things. The Browns signed Hyde not knowing how their draft process would play out (the finalization of their big board, trades, other teams moves, etc.). Then they were able to get Chubb, and after he was already in house they signed Duke Johnson to a contract extension. I think if there is a RB that gets phased out of the offense, the odds-on favorite has got to be Hyde.

I don't know if anyone is saying Chubb is going to be a bum. I'm certainly not saying that. Maybe we're just arguing semantics...

I just think this is way more likely to be a Freeman/Coleman, Howard/Cohen, CJA/CMC, etc. situation (those are just for reference! lol) for the next couple years, as opposed to Chubb being a Zeke, Gurley, Le'Veon, Fournette, DJ type. Like I said, maybe that just ends up being for a couple-three years, but that's half or more of Chubb's (first?) contract in Cleveland.

Or like sloth8u says, maybe the rest of the backfield fades away and Chubb is a beast with a massive workload. I just think the timing of the Duke Johnson extension says as much as how he actually plays.

I could totally see that, and I'd be OK with it. There are so few true 3 down backs, I think people need to realize that sometimes. I think that if Chubb puts up 1200 yards on the ground on average, like Howard, it's a hit of a draft pick in your rookie draft. Guice, Kerryon, Freeman, Rojo etc. probably aren't going to be DJ/Bell type guys either. There are a lot of 2 down type backs in this draft, and I'd be happy with Jordan Howard type numbers, personally.

[kris_kapsner]

If I may recap;

1) He's on the Browns
2) He has legit competition for touches
3) He's not a plus in the receiving game
4) He's perceived to lack top 5 overall upside

This is a clear break down of why Chubb is slipping in drafts. And that's fine. RB's have a "short" shelf life compared to other positions and people expect more of an instant impact from a RB drafted in the rookie draft than they expect to see from other positions. It kind of breaks down like this in people's minds I think:

QB: 2-4 years
WR: 2-3 years
TE: 2-4 years
RB: 1-2 years

So, if you you are expecting instant impact from RB's you draft in the 1st round of rookie drafts, you're moving Chubb down, while a guy like Freeman who was drafted a round an a half later in the draft is moving up.

The critiques above are understandable. But here is my response to each of the 4 "strikes" against Chubb:

1) Teams don't stay at the bottom forever. There is a reason teams resurge and it's typically because they find a stud or two, particularly at the QB position to turn the franchise around. I believe the Browns have found their QB of the future AND the present with two clear upgrades at the position via FA and the draft. They traded for Landry and Taylor so they could entice other FA's to come to their team. They've had more money to spend than they know what to do with. And not that's paying off. Only time will tell whether or not these moves have put the Browns in position to be a contender. But, we don't need them to be a contender to be very fantasy relevant. And that's where they appear to be heading.

2) The fear of a lack of touches for Chubb is legit. Hyde is no slouch at RB. He's not elite. But he's good. And Duke is a pass catching specialist. Both will cut in to some of Chubb's production, especially early on. For anyone to argue otherwise is probably not looking at the overall picture fairly. However, I'm a firm believer in talent rising to the top. Chubb is more talented than Duke and Hyde. He does possess a 3 down skill set in my opinion. And, he has an OC that is capable of feeding a 3 down RB the touches he needs to be an elite fantasy asset. Only time will tell on whether Hyde is cut in the future or fades into a back up role...or that Chubb develops the confidence of the coaching staff to trust him in the passing game as much as Duke. So, this concern is real. But, most of the time talent wins out. And Chubb has the talent.

3) Chubb's receiving skills are under rated. Why? Because other than in his true freshman year he wasn't utilized in the passing game. But, that's just what Georgia chose to do because Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift were there. Both of those other RB's are considered "elite" in their pass catching skills. Yet, Chubb had only 8 fewer receptions than Michel did when comparing their peak pass catching years. And, Michel only had 9 receptions this past year because D'Andre Swift took over the pass catching role out of the backfield as a freshman. He's considered "elite" in that role catching 17 balls for 153 yards for 1 TD and already some dynasty owners are trading for 2020 1st round picks in hopes of landing this freshman on their fantasy team. Do you know Chubb's stats his freshman year? 18 catches for 213 yards and 2 TD's.

Can we please stop saying D'Andre Swift and Sony Michel are elite pass catchers and Nick Chubb can't catch at all? Why? Because Nick Chubb has ZERO recorded drops for his college career while we can't say the same for Sony Michel.

4) I'm not sure why Chubb is not perceived to have top 5 FF RB upside. He is the 2nd all time leading rusher in the historically toughest defensive conference in college football. He took over for an injured Todd Gurley as a true freshman and people thought he looked even better than Gurley. Now yes, I do understand that he had that devastating knee injury. But, that kind of injury takes time to fully recover from. And he's seemed to get stronger and stronger as time passes from that injury. In fact, if Saquon hadn't dominated the combine, we'd be talking about Nick Chubb instead and his 98th percentile Spar-Q score. Don't say he doesn't have the burst. His numbers speak for themselves. And don't say he doesn't have the skill set to be a top 5 RB in the NFL because he looked better than last year's #1 guy (Gurley) when he played on the same team in the same year as a freshman. He has elite feel for the game and vision. He has the quickness, speed and agility you want. He has the size to dominate between the tackles and the long speed to break big runs.

This is a strong RB class and I don't fault some owners for wanting a more clear cut path to fantasy relevancy in 2018. So, slide Chubb down your draft boards if you'd like. That's ok. But, from a pure upside standpoint in a prospect, I'd argue that Nick Chubb is possibly the 2nd best in this class only to Saquon Barkley. I know that's high praise. We all have "our guys" that we truly like. And I like Nick Chubb's situation and skill set. Would I prefer Duke Johnson didn't sign the extension? Sure. Would I prefer that there wasn't Carlos Hyde competing with him for early down/full down work? Sure. But, Nick Chubb had a 1st round RB on the roster with him in Georgia and even after returning from his injury he took his starting job back and never let go. In fact, his first game back from that injury he put up 222 yards for 6.9 yards per carry and 2 TD's. He's used to having to compete for his touches and he's always shined brightly in the past. I see no reason to not expect the same for his future.

[ArrylT]

On the bright side Chubb did not make the Madden Cover since that would have been Strike 5.

[FantasyFreak]

If I may recap;

1) He's on the Browns
2) He has legit competition for touches
3) He's not a plus in the receiving game
4) He's perceived to lack top 5 overall upside

This is a clear break down of why Chubb is slipping in drafts. And that's fine. RB's have a "short" shelf life compared to other positions and people expect more of an instant impact from a RB drafted in the rookie draft than they expect to see from other positions. It kind of breaks down like this in people's minds I think:

QB: 2-4 years
WR: 2-3 years
TE: 2-4 years
RB: 1-2 years

So, if you you are expecting instant impact from RB's you draft in the 1st round of rookie drafts, you're moving Chubb down, while a guy like Freeman who was drafted a round an a half later in the draft is moving up.

The critiques above are understandable. But here is my response to each of the 4 "strikes" against Chubb:

1) Teams don't stay at the bottom forever. There is a reason teams resurge and it's typically because they find a stud or two, particularly at the QB position to turn the franchise around. I believe the Browns have found their QB of the future AND the present with two clear upgrades at the position via FA and the draft. They traded for Landry and Taylor so they could entice other FA's to come to their team. They've had more money to spend than they know what to do with. And not that's paying off. Only time will tell whether or not these moves have put the Browns in position to be a contender. But, we don't need them to be a contender to be very fantasy relevant. And that's where they appear to be heading.

2) The fear of a lack of touches for Chubb is legit. Hyde is no slouch at RB. He's not elite. But he's good. And Duke is a pass catching specialist. Both will cut in to some of Chubb's production, especially early on. For anyone to argue otherwise is probably not looking at the overall picture fairly. However, I'm a firm believer in talent rising to the top. Chubb is more talented than Duke and Hyde. He does possess a 3 down skill set in my opinion. And, he has an OC that is capable of feeding a 3 down RB the touches he needs to be an elite fantasy asset. Only time will tell on whether Hyde is cut in the future or fades into a back up role...or that Chubb develops the confidence of the coaching staff to trust him in the passing game as much as Duke. So, this concern is real. But, most of the time talent wins out. And Chubb has the talent.

3) Chubb's receiving skills are under rated. Why? Because other than in his true freshman year he wasn't utilized in the passing game. But, that's just what Georgia chose to do because Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift were there. Both of those other RB's are considered "elite" in their pass catching skills. Yet, Chubb had only 8 fewer receptions than Michel did when comparing their peak pass catching years. And, Michel only had 9 receptions this past year because D'Andre Swift took over the pass catching role out of the backfield as a freshman. He's considered "elite" in that role catching 17 balls for 153 yards for 1 TD and already some dynasty owners are trading for 2020 1st round picks in hopes of landing this freshman on their fantasy team. Do you know Chubb's stats his freshman year? 18 catches for 213 yards and 2 TD's.

Can we please stop saying D'Andre Swift and Sony Michel are elite pass catchers and Nick Chubb can't catch at all? Why? Because Nick Chubb has ZERO recorded drops for his college career while we can't say the same for Sony Michel.

4) I'm not sure why Chubb is not perceived to have top 5 FF RB upside. He is the 2nd all time leading rusher in the historically toughest defensive conference in college football. He took over for an injured Todd Gurley as a true freshman and people thought he looked even better than Gurley. Now yes, I do understand that he had that devastating knee injury. But, that kind of injury takes time to fully recover from. And he's seemed to get stronger and stronger as time passes from that injury. In fact, if Saquon hadn't dominated the combine, we'd be talking about Nick Chubb instead and his 98th percentile Spar-Q score. Don't say he doesn't have the burst. His numbers speak for themselves. And don't say he doesn't have the skill set to be a top 5 RB in the NFL because he looked better than last year's #1 guy (Gurley) when he played on the same team in the same year as a freshman. He has elite feel for the game and vision. He has the quickness, speed and agility you want. He has the size to dominate between the tackles and the long speed to break big runs.

This is a strong RB class and I don't fault some owners for wanting a more clear cut path to fantasy relevancy in 2018. So, slide Chubb down your draft boards if you'd like. That's ok. But, from a pure upside standpoint in a prospect, I'd argue that Nick Chubb is possibly the 2nd best in this class only to Saquon Barkley. I know that's high praise. We all have "our guys" that we truly like. And I like Nick Chubb's situation and skill set. Would I prefer Duke Johnson didn't sign the extension? Sure. Would I prefer that there wasn't Carlos Hyde competing with him for early down/full down work? Sure. But, Nick Chubb had a 1st round RB on the roster with him in Georgia and even after returning from his injury he took his starting job back and never let go. In fact, his first game back from that injury he put up 222 yards for 6.9 yards per carry and 2 TD's. He's used to having to compete for his touches and he's always shined brightly in the past. I see no reason to not expect the same for his future.

Agreed, but just draft Chubb and reap the rewards later, geez. Who cares what these clowns think?

Disclaimer: I am also a "clown".

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Can we please stop saying D'Andre Swift and Sony Michel are elite pass catchers and Nick Chubb can't catch at all? Why? Because Nick Chubb has ZERO recorded drops for his college career while we can't say the same for Sony Michel.

I don't believe I've seen people saying that he literally can't catch the ball. I just don't think he's a very good player in space. Sony was visibly much better in that regard, imo.

[Orenthal Shames]

Too much whiskey

[Gtdano_14]

Too much whiskey

I see what you did there.