Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:38 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:44 am Been looking into WR's a bit and one interesting thing I found is there haven't been any tall (6'2"+) stud WR's that weigh 210lbs or less. Kind of an arbitrary number but I haven't found one, not recently at least. You can find some that put up good years (Sidney Rice) but none that have had long-term success. I tried looking up Randy Moss's combine weight but couldn't really find a reliable result, saw numbers ranging from 195-215 lbs. I didn't look back too far so maybe you guys could come up with some.
AJ Green weighed 211 at the combine but man, if he plays at anything more than 205 I can't tell haha. Dude is a stick!
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:02 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:38 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:44 am Been looking into WR's a bit and one interesting thing I found is there haven't been any tall (6'2"+) stud WR's that weigh 210lbs or less. Kind of an arbitrary number but I haven't found one, not recently at least. You can find some that put up good years (Sidney Rice) but none that have had long-term success. I tried looking up Randy Moss's combine weight but couldn't really find a reliable result, saw numbers ranging from 195-215 lbs. I didn't look back too far so maybe you guys could come up with some.
AJ Green weighed 211 at the combine but man, if he plays at anything more than 205 I can't tell haha. Dude is a stick!
Haha yeah, that's why i said under that :P. Oddly enough it doesn't really have to do with BMI either, it's strictly a weight thing.

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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby _yeti » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:23 pm

Well... contact with WRs is illegal now and becoming illegal with all players so look for more gymnastics divas to continually pop up on the horizon. Not directed at Davis, but WR size is out the window for a metric of future WR production. There is a reason huge guys don't do gymnastics and a reason gymnasts don't play footba- wait nevermind that doesn't work here
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:57 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:38 pm AJ Green weighed 211 at the combine but man, if he plays at anything more than 205 I can't tell haha. Dude is a stick!
At 6'4", if Green were tipping the scales at 205 he'd look even skinnier. Trust me.

Green's got skinny calves, but his quads are powerfully built. It's more noticeable when he's wearing the white uni.
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:44 am Been looking into WR's a bit and one interesting thing I found is there haven't been any tall (6'2"+) stud WR's that weigh 210lbs or less. Kind of an arbitrary number but I haven't found one, not recently at least. You can find some that put up good years (Sidney Rice) but none that have had long-term success. I tried looking up Randy Moss's combine weight but couldn't really find a reliable result, saw numbers ranging from 195-215 lbs. I didn't look back too far so maybe you guys could come up with some.
Reported player weights are rarely updated after the rookie year. So the weight listing for a veteran on a website like playerprofiler or rotoworld has to be taken with a grain of salt. Gotta use your eyeballs, and make comparisons.

Weight increase or decrease in the 5lbs range is common. 10lbs is less common, but can happen. This refers to the skill-positions.

NFL regimen weight-training is on another level from college programs, and so players get heavier more often than not. Muscle weighs more than fat.
_yeti wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:23 pm Well... contact with WRs is illegal now and becoming illegal with all players so look for more gymnastics divas to continually pop up on the horizon. Not directed at Davis, but WR size is out the window for a metric of future WR production.
Play-strength is as important today as it was 25 years ago. Possibly more so. Used to be a lot easier for WRs to get clean release at the line.

Needless to say, play-strength usually correlates with weight/BMI.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby DLF3000 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:19 am

Somebody get Davis and Mariota in the weight room! Their track record of injuries is starting to concern me. Add in all the coaching changes and I'm either anxious or excited depending on the day.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby _yeti » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:15 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:57 pm
_yeti wrote: Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:23 pm Well... contact with WRs is illegal now and becoming illegal with all players so look for more gymnastics divas to continually pop up on the horizon. Not directed at Davis, but WR size is out the window for a metric of future WR production.
Play-strength is as important today as it was 25 years ago. Possibly more so. Used to be a lot easier for WRs to get clean release at the line.

Needless to say, play-strength usually correlates with weight/BMI.
Someone tell Robbie Anderson. Of course play-strength matters I was saying I don't see his BMI being a problem as far as hits after the catch or at the point of the catch because you can't hit WRs anymore. As far as press coverage, he's 6'3 and putting on 5 or 10 pounds of muscle isn't that hard if he needs to. 6'3/6'4 WRs are a newer phenomenon and they were king while the league exploded to a passing league but retained its physicality. Not so much anymore and I think to look at tall WR BMI of the WRs of the last era as an indicator of future production seems like a mistake to me.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby ninotoreS » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:17 pm

_yeti wrote: Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:15 pmSomeone tell Robbie Anderson.
He was pretty good for one season so far in an offense with no one else to throw to that year. He also only caught 55% of his targets.
as far as hits after the catch or at the point of the catch because you can't hit WRs anymore
Contested and contacted catches are still a thing. A big thing. Tacklers just can't destroy a receiver when he's defenseless. Unless I'm unaware of a recent rule change?
As far as press coverage, he's 6'3 and putting on 5 or 10 pounds of muscle isn't that hard if he needs to.
I think he already has, actually. Can't know for sure, but unreported weight changes and eyeballs, like I was saying. I don't think Anderson weighs 190 anymore.
6'3/6'4 WRs are a newer phenomenon and they were king while the league exploded to a passing league but retained its physicality
Hmm. Never as many at one time as that glut of stars in the mid-late 2000s when said passing-offense bonanza kicked off, but Art Monk, Charley Taylor, Michael Irvin, James Lofton, Cris Carter... height/speed's always been a thing.

Looking at some lists, though, which your post prompted me to do, has shown me that 6'1"/6'2" seems to be the sweetspot, historically. I think the only career-long 6'5" standout ever has been Megatron, from some quick research. So that's interesting.
I think to look at tall WR BMI of the WRs of the last era as an indicator of future production seems like a mistake to me.
Just 'tall', I agree, and I've posted to this effect in the past. Height is a little bit overrated. BMI, though? I have to disagree. That still matters a lot, and will keep mattering.

Although boiling it down to BMI alone without context can be faulty. It's about being well proportioned and muscled relative to the frame. Usually, a guy with a well muscled frame will have a respectable BMI regardless of height, since muscle weighs so much. Obviously WRs don't need to be as maxed out as would benefit an RB or TE, but I assert there's definitely a minimum threshold for long-term success, and if Anderson really is still 190lbs at 6'3", he's under it.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby btv802 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:16 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:17 pm He also only caught 55% of his targets.
Not a great catch percentage, but plenty of "elite" receivers have put up some of their biggest statistical seasons on sub 60% catch rates. Megatron, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopins, TY Hilton, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Larry Fitz, Arob, VJax, Roddy, OBJ, Evans...list goes on. Room for improvement for Robby for sure, but not a huge concern for me in general.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:43 pm

Granted, Hilton his entire career has lived at that catch-rate, as you point out. Mike Evans, too.

However, the guys in your list there aside from Gordon and A-Rob (they each only have one great season so far) still earn/earned an elite PFF grade nearly every season, indicating that the issues contributing to a so-so catch-rate were mostly outside their control (e.g. QB fault). This is in contrast to Anderson, who graded as only the #34 best WR in '17 (77.5). This suggests that Anderson's catch-rate had more to do with causes that were within his control, thus penalizing his grade. For example, getting forced off his route-schedule because of DB's bumping and redirecting him, getting into his route late because of a delayed release against press-man, or failing to come down with third-level contested and contacted catches. Such issues correlate with insufficient play-strength.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby trc » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:10 am

Based on box score (targets and walker injured), Davis should see a ton of targets.

But how did he look?

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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby btv802 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:49 am

Didn't see the game only the box score. As mentioned above the good news is Davis may see one of the highest target volumes in the league this year with Delanie's season done. The bad news is Mariota is playing horribly and Davis caught less than half of his targets in week one.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:44 am

He didn’t look special, looked fine tho.

His biggest thing will be staying healthy, his next biggest thing will be QB play.
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby MrUbuto » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:28 pm

Dont think we can take anything from a 7 hour game
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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby pokerface40 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:37 am

MrUbuto wrote: Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:28 pm Dont think we can take anything from a 7 hour game
I have been wondering if this had a bigger effect on the Titans than given credit for. Week 1 and you have weather delays all day, on the road, kind of tough to get in a rhythm. At least that's what I've been telling myself.

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Re: Corey Davis concerns?

Postby DynastyDeepDive » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:46 am

If Mariota keeps playing like he is and getting hurt, we won't ever see Davis's true potential.
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