Corey Davis - is this it, will it get better?

[jaykay22]

High end WR3 floor with yearly low-end WR1 ceiling is what I can see Davis being in the NFL.

[StableOfRBs]

The main thing that I think will hold Davis back is volume, the Titans are still very much a run-first team, as evidenced by the fact that Mariota has averaged ~31 pass attempts per game over each of his first two seasons. It's possible they could change their gameplan up in the future but I'm skeptical because of how much they've invested in their OL and their RB situation so Mariota will generally be throwing out ~480 attempts a season, assuming of course that they have a reason to play him in week 17 (which most leagues don't count anyway) so the 450 he had last year is probably a safer bet

Now we can take a look at Rishard Matthews who was his number 1 WR last year who was targeted on 95 of Mariota's 450 attempts which is just over a 21% target share (most WR1s on teams average about 20-22%), now obviously this will go down this year with Davis in the mix and I am by no means saying that Matthews is as talented as Davis is but Matthews didn't go anywhere, he is still a viable receiver on the team who will pull targets from Davis along with Delanie Walker (94 targets), Tajae Sharpe (81 targets), the RBs (80 combined targets)

Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the team, no question, but odds are he won't end up with more than a 20-22% target share which, given Mariota's 2 previous seasons, will equate to roughly 100 targets, assuming he catches 65% of them (a good catch rate for any receiver) that's 65 receptions (duh) which would mean he would need at least 15.5 yards per catch to hit 1000 yards on the season and 1 TD every 8 catches to hit 8 touchdowns

The TDs would certainly be doable especially given his size and talent (although rushing TD vultures near the end zone are a bigger possibility with a running QB and two solid backs) but keeping up that YPC average is tough over a full season. Mike Evans, OBJ, Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper didn't even average 14.0 YPC let alone 15.0 or 15.5 (Cooper was closest with 13.9) and even Rishard Matthews only hit 14.5 YPC, so for Davis to do it as a rookie in such a low volume passing attack with capable albeit less talented receivers in Walker and Matthews around him is incredibly unlikely no matter how talented he is.

From a Davis thread over the summer and just like clockwork Mariota is averaging 30.6 pass attempts per game so far this year. Another thing to consider with low volume passing offenses is volatility, the lower the volume a receiver gets the more likely any small change in play from either the WR or QB will effect their fantasy totals so consistency takes a huge blow there as well.

Already addressed this like twice already. It's possible he hits WR1 production but unlikely and the consistency with which he'll do that is gonna be pretty low. Granted with a new HC/OC Mariota could still throw more but with the addition of Lewis and the Titans focusing on defense in the draft (better D = closer games = more rushing) I kind of doubt it.

[_yeti]

As we all know, volume plays a huge role in fantasy football, and that means that a WR needs significant targets to be a WR1. During his three-year career, Marcus Mariota has never thrown more than 453 passes in a season. There is a new coaching staff coming in this year and that could mean a change in scheme, but as a fan of Davis's talent, I'm worried he'll never see the 120-125+ targets needed to be a yearly WR1. Thoughts?

How could it not mean a change of scheme? You think the old regime left their playbooks and coaching philosophy in the meeting rooms?

Look at past stats, project forward. Ignore context. How are pass attempts per year something that was within the quarterback's control? Why do you think it is a stat that projects forward with a new staff? This would be super easy if we could boil it all down to a constant projection forward of attempts for Mariota and targets per year for Davis. Also would take all skill and fun out of this as well as any need to actually watch football.

[Phaded]

The biggest obstacle for Corey Davis is himself at the moment, not the targets he is getting.
He needs to be healthy and then be able to perform.
Once he proves he deserves an influx of targets he will get them.

The competition for targets is not a lot - but this will probably be a run first team and Corey Davis is going to have to beat the top corner on teams in most weeks.

If you like Davis - be patient.

Everyone needs to stop the fantasy WR1 expectations for just about any highly drafted WR though. Realistically you should be hoping for a WR2 and then a WR1 should be considered a bonus, talented wide receivers are not at a shortage.

[btv802]

If you include his playoff games, Davis was roughly on a 16 game 100 target pace as a rookie on a low volume passing offense, which ain't bad. Don't see why that can't go up. Probably eventually will be at the expense of Delanie as he is phased out of the offense.

Like it was mentioned above, it's going to matter more about how Davis performs with those targets that will dictate his success and future involvement.

[Jason3123]

I think it's very unlikely Mariota continues to throw less than 500 passes for the duration of his career. Maybe another year or two but as should be expected, he will eventually take more control of that offense. So yes I think Davis can easily hit the 130+ range in the next 2-3 seasons.

[osubuckeyeman]

Not concerned a bit. Titans drafted him 7th overall for a reason and he has to develop a bit. Not all rookies come out the gate like barn busters. He has flashed some of his skills and the injuries most likely slowed his development. He still seems to be a special prospect in my eyes and looking forward to his breakout.

They drafted him 5th overall.

I wouldn't worry too much about Davis. He's flashed some pretty nice catches so far this year. Mariota is having a bad year as well. Not sure how much injuries are affecting Mariota, but I don't believe he has been throwing deep much this year. Davis also hasn't had a chance to build rapport with Mariota. He was the 5th overall pick. Be patient. Trust the process.

Even better.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Davis' rookie year was hot garbage if you zoom out on it and judge objectively. However, he put together quite a highlight reel of impressive individual plays

Sounds like Devante Parker

Haha yeah I imagine it accurately describes many rookie years of WRs taken with high draft capital, some who have achieved career success and some who have not. Could Corey Davis have a similar career path to Parker? Absolutely. Could Parker still have a great career? Absolutely.

I always kinda thought Parker was the Davis comp no one wanted to mention last year. Don't get me wrong, I thought Davis was more polished coming out, but their skillsets and size were pretty similar (to these amateur eyes) as prospects.

Like Parker after year 1, Davis is maintaining a lot of his value based on his highlight plays. Hopefully, he takes a step to being more consistent this year. If not, his value is going to follow the same path Parker's did after year 2.

[btv802]

Sounds like Devante Parker

Haha yeah I imagine it accurately describes many rookie years of WRs taken with high draft capital, some who have achieved career success and some who have not. Could Corey Davis have a similar career path to Parker? Absolutely. Could Parker still have a great career? Absolutely.

I always kinda thought Parker was the Davis comp no one wanted to mention last year. Don't get me wrong, I thought Davis was more polished coming out, but their skillsets and size were pretty similar (to these amateur eyes) as prospects.

Like Parker after year 1, Davis is maintaining a lot of his value based on his highlight plays. Hopefully, he takes a step to being more consistent this year. If not, his value is going to follow the same path Parker's did after year 2.

I loved Devante Parker coming out so doesn't bother me all that much.

[ArrylT]

bumped for Mixon thread discussion.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Been looking into WR's a bit and one interesting thing I found is there haven't been any tall (6'2"+) stud WR's that weigh 210lbs or less. Kind of an arbitrary number but I haven't found one, not recently at least. You can find some that put up good years (Sidney Rice) but none that have had long-term success. I tried looking up Randy Moss's combine weight but couldn't really find a reliable result, saw numbers ranging from 195-215 lbs. I didn't look back too far so maybe you guys could come up with some.

[Kaz]

Allen Robinson (6'3 211) would be close, though he only has the one really good year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Allen Robinson (6'3 211) would be close, though he only has the one really good year.

He was 220lbs at the combine, 208 lbs at his pro day

[Kaz]

Ah, I was going by rotoworld which lists him at 211.

[Orenthal Shames]

Matthews is going to have the better season and is the far better value at his price.