Kerryon Johnson Value

[Jigga94]

"Maybe Abdullah will bounce back and become an important part of the offense, but it's probably far far more likely that he's not a part of the offense at all. Heck there was just an article in the Detroit Free Press a few days ago that because neither Abdullah nor Riddick play special teams, there is a pretty good chance that one of them will end up being a post June 1st cut. And Riddick has a pretty defined role that gives him some value to the team that Abdullah does not, so it seems unlikely that Riddick will be that guy. "

One could only hope he gets set free Don't see him getting a fair shot with all they have invested in the rest of the rb room.

As an Abdullah owner, I want nothing more than a change of scenery. I still think he's worth holding because of the current poor situation

[ninotoreS]

Put me on record for having developed cautious optimism regarding Johnson.

Johnson's profile and tape are subtle in their merits. I don't feel like writing an essay right now, so I'm just gonna copypasta what I've currently got down for him in my draft board notes:

Johnson should have the opportunity to start in '18 but a 3-man committee is just as likely, Detroit's O-line might finally improve, good patience and nice burst from a stand-still, multiple gears, not a home-run threat but doesn't leave meat on the bone, profiles nicely as an outlet pass-catcher, leggy build isn't ideal, good pad-level despite said build, extensive minor injury history dating back to high-school, has played with injuries and remained effective, great at the goal-line, Johnson's uninspiring metrics and lack of flash initially had me dismissive but further tape review leaves me intrigued

Regarding the possible O-line improvement, I'm referring to the two draft picks Detroit spent on their line this year. Ragnow was dominant versus SEC D-lines and Crosby is potentially a steal in the 5th round.

As for Johnson, I think people aren't fully appreciating that after Barkley, he's the most pro-ready 3-down RB in this class. He's not flashy or exciting, but he has no glaring flaws, either. Detroit wasn't the only team giving him a Day 2 grade in this fairly deep RB class.

[MEuRaH]

If anyone wants to argue Kerryon's injury history, that's fine. I have no defense for that and that's the only thing that worries me.

If you want to argue his ability, then you're just silly. Dude has great size and speed, and can make people miss in tight spaces. He played against all the top defenses in college and produced at a high level. Wasn't his O-line one of the worst run blocking units in all of college football?

If you want to argue his situation, that's just crazy. A lot of people forget but (1) Detroit traded up to get him (2) in the 2nd round. That alone should mean something. (3) Riddick, a pass-catching RB that's more of a WR, isn't taking away his workload and (4) Abdullah has never produced in years. (5) Blount is 100 years old. This is also a dynasty league, so where do you think all those other guys will be in 1-2 years? Do you think the Lions will actually pony up to keep these guys? My guess is "no".

I had Kerryon Johnson as my #2 target at RB prior to the draft. His landing spot is AMAZING (turf, dome games, and gets to play against 2 shitty run defenses twice a year, little-to-no competition). I own him in 2 of 3 leagues that have drafted, and I have 3 picks before the 1.07 selection in a 4th, so yeah I'll get him there too.

The nay-sayers are gonna be kicking themselves by October/November.

[ninotoreS]

You know, when fellow SEC running-back Derrius Guice played through an injury in '17 (weeks 4-6), his performance fell off a cliff for those weeks. When Johnson played through a nagging hamstring injury for the first half of '17, he continued to perform at a high level most of those weeks (a couple of a bad games with four monsters games against SEC defenses).

A guy that can play with some pain and continue to produce results is a rare 'skill' that translates very well to the pros. Johnson appears to have it. It's an underrated perk to him that I don't see mentioned in practically any published scouting reports / profiles.

[dynastyninja]

If anyone wants to argue Kerryon's injury history, that's fine. I have no defense for that and that's the only thing that worries me.

If you want to argue his ability, then you're just silly. Dude has great size and speed, and can make people miss in tight spaces. He played against all the top defenses in college and produced at a high level. Wasn't his O-line one of the worst run blocking units in all of college football?

If you want to argue his situation, that's just crazy. A lot of people forget but (1) Detroit traded up to get him (2) in the 2nd round. That alone should mean something. (3) Riddick, a pass-catching RB that's more of a WR, isn't taking away his workload and (4) Abdullah has never produced in years. (5) Blount is 100 years old. This is also a dynasty league, so where do you think all those other guys will be in 1-2 years? Do you think the Lions will actually pony up to keep these guys? My guess is "no".

I had Kerryon Johnson as my #2 target at RB prior to the draft. His landing spot is AMAZING (turf, dome games, and gets to play against 2 shitty run defenses twice a year, little-to-no competition). I own him in 2 of 3 leagues that have drafted, and I have 3 picks before the 1.07 selection in a 4th, so yeah I'll get him there too.

The nay-sayers are gonna be kicking themselves by October/November.

I don't agree with most of what you've said, so I must be silly and crazy. I don't think he's special and I don't think Detroit is the right landing spot. Year 1 he's got competition with a pass catcher and a thumper on an offense with bad blocking. If Blount leaves in year 2 he could have a productive year, but I don't think he's a talented enough running back to warrant the Lions not considering bringing in a replacement or competition. I also don't think Kerryon is any better of a prospect than Abdullah was coming out of college, so dismissing Abdullah doesn't seem fair to me.

[ninotoreS]

Regardless of your own assessment of him, I don't think you're appreciating that Detroit traded up to take Johnson with the 43rd overall. Teams don't spend that on a running-back unless they envision him as a major contributor to the offense sooner rather than later. Lions won't bring in "replacement or competition" next year unless Johnson totally faceplants as a rookie.

As for Blount and Riddick, while I'm inclined to agree Johnson will committee this year, it's noteworthy that neither of his competition for touches have the legit 3-down profile he does. Johnson may already be the depth-chart's best pass-protector, and Blount and Riddick don't do anything significantly better than him; Johnson was very good in short-yardage situations at Auburn, and as an outlet receiver he's not out of Riddick's league while also likely being an upgrade to Riddick in pass-protection.

As for Abdullah, you can dismiss him in this context. If he isn't waived, he's at risk of being inactive on Sundays; there's no reason to activate a fourth-string running-back that doesn't play special-teams (he hasn't even returned kick-offs since 2015). Whether or not Abdullah's been dealt a bad hand to start his career is another discussion.

[dynastyninja]

Regardless of your own assessment of him, I don't think you're appreciating that Detroit traded up to take Johnson with the 43rd overall. Teams don't spend that on a running-back unless they envision him as a major contributor to the offense sooner rather than later. Lions won't bring in "replacement or competition" next year unless Johnson totally faceplants as a rookie.

As for Blount and Riddick, while I'm inclined to agree Johnson will committee this year, it's noteworthy that neither of his competition for touches have the legit 3-down profile he does. Johnson may already be the depth-chart's best pass-protector, and Blount and Riddick don't anything significantly better than him; Johnson was very good in short-yardage situations at Auburn, and as an outlet receiver he's not out of Riddick's league while also likely being an upgrade to Riddick in pass-protection.

As for Abdullah, you can dismiss him in this context. If he isn't waived, he's at risk of being inactive on Sundays; there's no reason to activate a fourth-string running-back that doesn't play special-teams (he hasn't even returned kick-offs since 2015). Whether or not Abdullah's been dealt a bad hand to start his career is another discussion.

I definitely understand them trading up for him is a good thing. I just don't think it makes up for the other issues. He'll get the opportunity, I'm just not confident in the production.

[Jfever]

Vcize,

Just wondering if you've watched many Lions games?

[MEuRaH]

I don't think he's special and I don't think Detroit is the right landing spot. Year 1 he's got competition with a pass catcher and a thumper on an offense with bad blocking. If Blount leaves in year 2 he could have a productive year, but I don't think he's a talented enough running back to warrant the Lions not considering bringing in a replacement or competition. I also don't think Kerryon is any better of a prospect than Abdullah was coming out of college, so dismissing Abdullah doesn't seem fair to me.

You're arguing a landing spot, but look at Kamara last year. He went to a team that had AP & Ingram. These boards went crazy with how terrible of a landing spot that it was. In the end, it didn't matter.

Our opinions differ on talent, but landing spot won't end up mattering. If any player has talent, landing spot never matters.

[cazzie33]

"You're arguing a landing spot, but look at Kamara last year. He went to a team that had AP & Ingram. These boards went crazy with how terrible of a landing spot that it was. In the end, it didn't matter.

Our opinions differ on talent, but landing spot won't end up mattering. If any player has talent, landing spot never matters"

Not everyone on these boards B-) , but Kerryon is being anointed by the vast majority as starting RB . While I think it's his job to lose it will be interesting to see if Legarrette & Ameer get an equal chance to run with the OL ones instead of the backups in preseason. I think KJ will do well enough to get the majority of reps as 1st & 2nd down back. But I don't expect anything great for fantasy purposes. Maybe low end RB2 but more than likely not that good.

[Ryantacular]

A Top 3 back in this class. Late round gem for sure.

[cazzie33]

A Top 3 back in this class. Late round gem for sure.

I don't think he's either...unless you are talking redraft late rd then maybe he a last rd or two gem. However if the team is determined to make the move to get him justified then perhaps he gets the volume to be a RB2. Doubtful to me that KJ is superior to either Blount or Abdullah in their strengths as a banger or seatback but is a better blend of both. Just depends on how the coaching staff wants to game plan.

[dynastyninja]

I don't think he's special and I don't think Detroit is the right landing spot. Year 1 he's got competition with a pass catcher and a thumper on an offense with bad blocking. If Blount leaves in year 2 he could have a productive year, but I don't think he's a talented enough running back to warrant the Lions not considering bringing in a replacement or competition. I also don't think Kerryon is any better of a prospect than Abdullah was coming out of college, so dismissing Abdullah doesn't seem fair to me.

You're arguing a landing spot, but look at Kamara last year. He went to a team that had AP & Ingram. These boards went crazy with how terrible of a landing spot that it was. In the end, it didn't matter.

Our opinions differ on talent, but landing spot won't end up mattering. If any player has talent, landing spot never matters.

I don't think he has that much talent, so landing spot does matter. He doesn't have a clear path to the starting job, and I don't think he's good enough to snatch the job and hold onto it for 3-5 years.

[MEuRaH]

Doubtful to me that KJ is superior to either Blount or Abdullah in their strengths as a banger or seatback but is a better blend of both. Just depends on how the coaching staff wants to game plan.

Tim Twentyman, who is the lead writer for www.detroitlions.com, projected the following:

1) KJ
2) Blount (short yardage)
3) Riddick (3rd down)

And Abdullah as the "odd man out".

[MEuRaH]

I don't think he has that much talent, so landing spot does matter. He doesn't have a clear path to the starting job, and I don't think he's good enough to snatch the job and hold onto it for 3-5 years.

I had to search our discussion history, because I've seen your name a ton and you always seem to disagree with me. Here's what I found:

Reggie Bush: I hated him at 29, said getting a 2nd rounder for him was "good". You disagreed, said he should be worth a first. Direct quote: "I would be very surprised if he didn't last two years. I'm expecting at least three." He carried the ball just 76 times for under 300 yards in year 1. Barely ever touched the ball again after that.

AJG vs Jimmy Graham: You preferred JG, and I said AJG. I correctly predicted that Jimmy G would be on a small decline, before he became mostly irrelevant while AJG has flourished. I was actually called some names or disagreed with rather heavily in that one.

Mike Williams: I said he was done, you disagreed. For the rest of his entire football career, he had 9 catches.

Reggie Bush again: He went to SF and you said "He is a superior talent to Hyde". I said: "Superior talent? Not even close imo. Hyde is the clear #1." This time, you did not berate me like you did in the other posts... you just disagreed. Did you have a Reggie Bush man crush?

CJ Anderson: lol, HILARIOUSLY, we were both really high on the CJ Anderson train. I still think he had great talent but injuries derailed him for the 2 solid years I believed in him. I jumped ship at the start of last season, telling someone to sell him for a 1st, but you held tight. I even said CJA > Gurley, and after year 1 I thought I nailed it. Woops! Good memories of that one.

AJG vs Antonio Brown: You correctly said Brown had more value and belonged in the "big 5" discussion. I said he belonged in the discussion, but "wasn't there yet".

There was also a post I made where I was trying to talk up Kelvin Benjamin. I owned the guy and was trying to trade him to another owner in my league, and I knew the guy frequented these forums so I was trying to talk him up. Then you came along and talked him right back down. I even admitted that on my final reply in the thread.

That's everything I could find. Looks like I got the lead, therefore I must be right. KJ will be awesome! Take it to the bank!