Thoughts on Rashaad Penny?

[Generic Username]

Im beginning to think a couple things ---

A) Hawks Oline is better than everyone says.

B) Penny will be a fantasy machine in full and half PPR leagues.

So you're thinking the Penny stock is on the rise?

Blue chip by season's end?

[Jason]

In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.

[maxhyde]

In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.

I agree with this.
Now if you think it is 50 carries and 15-50 more passes that might be something else entirely. Or if you (like the NFL) perceives the immaturity issues Guice has demonstrated are more concerning than the amount more talent he has. I mean 32 teams had to make that decision as should every fantasy owner and there is no small number that decided those issues weren't something they wanted in their locker room despite the "more talent"

[Jason3123]

If you're fading Guice because you just don't like his haircut or hate video games that's acceptable. But fading Guice because of a comment by Jay Gruden in May, or because a 180 pound fragile scat back, is beyond insane. Don't be insane.

It's not insane to think that Thompson is one of the most effective backs in the league, at least in passing situations. And thus barring injury Guice is unlikely to become a 3 down back. And so his upside is limited for the foreseeable future, similar to Sony Michel. Guice is unlikely to even be the best RB on his own team in PPR leagues.

In comparison, it's not unreasonable to think that Penny or Chubb might get significantly more opportunities, though they also might not start. Whether you decide to choose talent over situation is another discussion, but I've noticed you like to turn everything into a false dichotomy where anyone who disagrees with you is insane, and this is certainly not true in this case.

Chris Thompson is a nice little player who has been injured since college. His contract expires after 2019. Last season he averaged 13.1 YPR (outlier). Before that he averaged 6.9 and 7.1 the 2 years prior. Guice is a superior talent and even if he doesn't have the 3rd down role, Perine still managed 22 catches last season. Guice can easily get 30+ catches with Chris Thompson playing. And again, betting on Thompson to play 32 games the next 2 years is a suckers bet. And one more thing, Guice is a lock for 200+ carries barring injury. Thompson gets 60-70 carries max. Guice gets into the 220-250 range plus 25-30 catches and you're talking about an every week starter in fantasy football, for a rookie, which is awesome. He will kick Thompson to the curb eventually because Thompson is a 27 year old tiny scat back with a rough injury history. And Guice is a primo highly drafted RB. Stop fading Guice in DYNASTY for Chris Thompson. If you want to bump him down for redraft for 2018, fine, you should do that with all rookies though. Guice is a rock solid #2/#3 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

[Bot101]

In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.

Have you not been following the Seahawks press conferences? They appear committed to using Penny heavily in the passing game. Perhaps thats why they downplay his pass protection, because they plan on throwing to him. I think realistically we could be looking at around 50 catches.

[Tsunami]

Chris Thompson is a nice little player who has been injured since college. His contract expires after 2019. Last season he averaged 13.1 YPR (outlier). Before that he averaged 6.9 and 7.1 the 2 years prior. Guice is a superior talent and even if he doesn't have the 3rd down role, Perine still managed 22 catches last season. Guice can easily get 30+ catches with Chris Thompson playing. And again, betting on Thompson to play 32 games the next 2 years is a suckers bet. And one more thing, Guice is a lock for 200+ carries barring injury. Thompson gets 60-70 carries max. Guice gets into the 220-250 range plus 25-30 catches and you're talking about an every week starter in fantasy football, for a rookie, which is awesome. He will kick Thompson to the curb eventually because Thompson is a 27 year old tiny scat back with a rough injury history. And Guice is a primo highly drafted RB. Stop fading Guice in DYNASTY for Chris Thompson. If you want to bump him down for redraft for 2018, fine, you should do that with all rookies though. Guice is a rock solid #2/#3 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

2019 is two full seasons, exactly how far ahead do you look when you draft a RB? The position is too volatile for me to take someone who might improve in 2020 over someone who will have every opportunity right now. Thompson has played 39 games the last 3 years, that's not a terrible track record for a RB. As for Guice being a "primo highly drafted RB" you're arguing to take him before RBs that went a full round earlier and are in better situations. It's not as easy a call as you seem to think.

[FantasyFreak]

Chris Thompson is a nice little player who has been injured since college. His contract expires after 2019. Last season he averaged 13.1 YPR (outlier). Before that he averaged 6.9 and 7.1 the 2 years prior. Guice is a superior talent and even if he doesn't have the 3rd down role, Perine still managed 22 catches last season. Guice can easily get 30+ catches with Chris Thompson playing. And again, betting on Thompson to play 32 games the next 2 years is a suckers bet. And one more thing, Guice is a lock for 200+ carries barring injury. Thompson gets 60-70 carries max. Guice gets into the 220-250 range plus 25-30 catches and you're talking about an every week starter in fantasy football, for a rookie, which is awesome. He will kick Thompson to the curb eventually because Thompson is a 27 year old tiny scat back with a rough injury history. And Guice is a primo highly drafted RB. Stop fading Guice in DYNASTY for Chris Thompson. If you want to bump him down for redraft for 2018, fine, you should do that with all rookies though. Guice is a rock solid #2/#3 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

2019 is two full seasons, exactly how far ahead do you look when you draft a RB? The position is too volatile for me to take someone who might improve in 2020 over someone who will have every opportunity right now. Thompson has played 39 games the last 3 years, that's not a terrible track record for a RB. As for Guice being a "primo highly drafted RB" you're arguing to take him before RBs that went a full round earlier and are in better situations. It's not as easy a call as you seem to think.

There were what, 7 RB's taken before Guice? I was never a "Guice is in his own tier guy" right after Barkley, however I did have him in the next tier after Barkley with others. For me personally, I have no issues with people taking Guice or Penny, but there is no real evidence to suggest Guice is the far superior talent other than tape analysis, and most, if not all of us are amateur's at this. I think that any back taken inside the top 2 rounds has enough draft pedigree where if you believe in him, you take him.

[lukkynumber13]

In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.

Have you not been following the Seahawks press conferences? They appear committed to using Penny heavily in the passing game. Perhaps thats why they downplay his pass protection, because they plan on throwing to him. I think realistically we could be looking at around 50 catches.

I really could care less about what a team says at any time, let alone in May. Why would they tell us what they plan to do?

I chuckle when I think of the CJ Spiller season after his coach said he'd get fed the rock "until he threw up".

[FantasyFreak]

In an Alex Smith offense I think both RBs can eat in the passing game. Even on the Chiefs last season Hunt had 53 PPRs and West had 27. I think projecting something similar, just Thompson with the 53 and Guice with the 27, is fair. Chris Thompson broke like 3 really long touchdowns last season and is now suddenly being overvalued imo, he's always been pretty much an afterthought before that.

Is Penny going to command huge volume in the passing game in Seattle's offense? When was the last time that's happened? To place him above Guice who is a superior talent with at least an equal if not much better offensive line?

I think Penny is much safer because Guice's freefall in the draft is pretty sketchy, so if you are risk averse then ok. Maybe you just aren't a fan of Guice and really like Penny, then that's ok too. But I think downgrading Guice because you're worried Penny might catch 15 more passes in year one is overthinking it.

Have you not been following the Seahawks press conferences? They appear committed to using Penny heavily in the passing game. Perhaps thats why they downplay his pass protection, because they plan on throwing to him. I think realistically we could be looking at around 50 catches.

I really could care less about what a team says at any time, let alone in May. Why would they tell us what they plan to do?

I chuckle when I think of the CJ Spiller season after his coach said he'd get fed the rock "until he threw up".

Maybe he threw up.

[ninotoreS]

Seattle's run-blocking is a dumpster fire (31st in '17 and 26th in '16 in Adjusted Line Yards) that the front-office again made no effort at all to address this offseason, but my primary concern with Penny is that his tape isn't actually as impressive as his (fresh) hype and stats. Even his much ballyhooed yards-after-contact stat appears to be a mirage when you actually look at the long runs which inflated that metric for him. Make no mistake, Penny is not the same caliber of tackle breaker as Chubb and Guice.

I liked Penny a lot more when I thought he would be a sleeper I could acquire without a premium pick.

[lukkynumber13]

Seattle's O-line is a dumpster fire that the front-office made no effort at all to address this year, but my primary concern with Penny is that his tape isn't actually as impressive as his (fresh) hype and stats. Even his much ballyhooed yards-after-contact stat appears to be a mirage when you actually look at the long runs which inflated that metric for him. Make no mistake, Penny is not the the same caliber of tackle breaker as Chubb and Guice.

I liked Penny a lot more when I thought he would be a sleeper I could acquire without a premium pick.

AMEN!!!!!!

[Bot101]

Seattle's run-blocking is a dumpster fire (31st in '17 and 26th in '16 in Adjusted Line Yards) that the front-office again made no effort at all to address this offseason, but my primary concern with Penny is that his tape isn't actually as impressive as his (fresh) hype and stats. Even his much ballyhooed yards-after-contact stat appears to be a mirage when you actually look at the long runs which inflated that metric for him. Make no mistake, Penny is not the same caliber of tackle breaker as Chubb and Guice.

I liked Penny a lot more when I thought he would be a sleeper I could acquire without a premium pick.

Well the truth about the Oline is not as bleak as you're point at. The last 8 games of the season they were top 15 in run blocking. They traded for Duane Brown which helped tremendously. They signed one of the best blocking TE in Ed Dickson and drafted one of the best blocking TE in the draft. And also acquired DJ Fluker. Is it beyond belief thinking the line could finish middle of the road in 2018? Combine that with the volume Penny will likely get and you have a lot of fantasy points. I dont think hes more talented than Guice but hes going to touch the ball quite a bit more this season.

[dynastyninja]

Seattle's run-blocking is a dumpster fire (31st in '17 and 26th in '16 in Adjusted Line Yards) that the front-office again made no effort at all to address this offseason, but my primary concern with Penny is that his tape isn't actually as impressive as his (fresh) hype and stats. Even his much ballyhooed yards-after-contact stat appears to be a mirage when you actually look at the long runs which inflated that metric for him. Make no mistake, Penny is not the same caliber of tackle breaker as Chubb and Guice.

I liked Penny a lot more when I thought he would be a sleeper I could acquire without a premium pick.

This is about where I am right now with Penny, but I'm really not concerned that much with the offensive line because things can change quickly in the NFL. The situation is a plus. I think he can be a good running back, but I don't think he's special. He's in the top 6 RBs, but at the end of the top 6.

[Cowboysfan33]

Seattle's run-blocking is a dumpster fire (31st in '17 and 26th in '16 in Adjusted Line Yards) that the front-office again made no effort at all to address this offseason, but my primary concern with Penny is that his tape isn't actually as impressive as his (fresh) hype and stats. Even his much ballyhooed yards-after-contact stat appears to be a mirage when you actually look at the long runs which inflated that metric for him. Make no mistake, Penny is not the same caliber of tackle breaker as Chubb and Guice.

I liked Penny a lot more when I thought he would be a sleeper I could acquire without a premium pick.

Well the truth about the Oline is not as bleak as you're point at. The last 8 games of the season they were top 15 in run blocking. They traded for Duane Brown which helped tremendously. They signed one of the best blocking TE in Ed Dickson and drafted one of the best blocking TE in the draft. And also acquired DJ Fluker. Is it beyond belief thinking the line could finish middle of the road in 2018? Combine that with the volume Penny will likely get and you have a lot of fantasy points. I dont think hes more talented than Guice but hes going to touch the ball quite a bit more this season.

I could see Penny ending up being similar to Melvin Gordon, really good numbers but not great YPC but who cares about that? A lot of people don’t like Gordon but he’s always near the top in PPR RBs. Like you said, Penny will get so many touches, probably the most of any rookie RB not named Barkley.

[IBall2]

Just got Penny at the 1.04 spot in my draft and I feel good about that pick. Should high volume in year one. I like the Melvin Gordon comparison and I'm content with that sort of production. Can always flip him in the future if he doesn't completely nose dive but even if he does, 1st round RBs usually hold value at least 2-3 years, even T-rich held value into his third year.