Melvin Gordon value

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:11 am

Phaded wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:49 am This thread inspired me to go buy Gordon (2 late 1sts & 2nd), thanks guys; the more I dug into him the more he looked like a great buy low.

I think he is going to do great things behind this revamped offensive line.
Ah you were the owner the other owner was talking about in his "I have to accept this offer even if it is really light if no one else is willing to step to the plate" email. I couldnt step to the plate because i had literally nothing to spend on Gordon. :mrgreen:
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jfever » Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:08 am

Nathan, You did an excellent job explaining what I was referring to. Very well done! I'm sure some will read through it and dismiss it for whatever reason, but, the points you made, the examples you used, and the organization and the tone of your posts were excellent. YPC does not measure ability, skill, etc. It just doesn't. In my opinion, with my experience (20 plus years playing fantasy football) - far too many in this hobby use statistics or weigh certain statistics or numbers too heavily. YPC is just an average. I think there are a lot of folks in the world that don't work with math that often. Terms like mean, median, and mode are not used by or understood by everyone everyday. In this game, you don't have to be a math or science guy to have fun or to have success. It could and does help, but, it isn't necessary.

I think the best approach, or at least the one that works for me, is to watch as much football as I can. NCAA, and NFL. I even take notes on what I see. Good and bad. Then, I take a look at combine numbers when it applies, and / or - I look at PFF break downs of YPC, YAC, (yards after contact I weigh much more than YPC by the way), and that is what helps me to formulate opinions and values on players. I look at the style of offense, the grading of the O-line, and any relevant injuries on each team playing (offense and defense).

When some weigh YPC without context, It just seems to me like they've read the Cliff notes of a novel then are trying to write an essay on said novel. It could work, sure, but, more likely; It won't work over the long run. There is just more to it is all.

If my response sounds like I'm preaching or taking an "I'm holy'er than tho" approach - My apologies. It isn't my intent. Just sharing my experience - for the betterment of our DLF fantasy community is all.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:08 pm

Thank you, nathanq. Very worthwhile post.

JFever, I agree with your points here- numbers are fine, context is important. Injuries, style of offense, quality of oline, role in offense, game flow, all relevant.

You also bring up means, medians and modes. I'd agree those are much more interesting/useful than a straight average. It'd be interesting to see plot graphs comparing RBs to see yards gained for runs, identifying which RBs are more likely to gain consistent 5+ versus which live off big plays. I recall cj2k lived off the big runs, and Vikings fans complained that Peterson was like that even at his height.

It'd be interesting to see an argument that most RBs live off chunk plays (ie their percentage of x+ yards is the same), and the volume backs have greater value simply because their consistent touches give them a better chance of breaking a run or two.

Put another way- Nathan, you're game log review is interesting, but how does that percentage of sub 3 yards and 5 plus yards compare to other RBs? What was the down and distance at the time those uninspiring rush totals were logged? Did Gordon not break big runs? Was his percentage of big runs significantly lower than Gurley and Cook?
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:11 pm

clarion contrarion wrote: Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:50 am now after continuing to read this thread I just took some adderall and some xanax and I notified dalvin cook he is fired and of more import ...... I regretfully informed eric dickerson and barry sanders they are being removed from the hall of fame for having too many long runs in their illustrious careers.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby nathanq42 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:26 pm

Yo honestly... Ain't nobody got time for that. I get the per play stuff from the "the score" app, only shows the last 12 or so games per player, it's also not very user friendly. I only did it for cook because he only has a few games, and ive watched his game tape and came to the conclusion he looked ineffective except for a few chunk plays where he broke through containment. Yet people say he was amazing as a rookie and looked great ??. So I knew his ypc would be very different than his median yardage and his per play numbers would be unimpressive.

I'm sure if you can get the data I could cut it up in excel or access but I don't have that data and I'm not going hunting for some obscure spreadsheet that may or may not exist 😂😂

So long story short I can do it if I had the raw data, but I don't, so I can't. If anyone else finds this data send it my way and I'll see what I can do with it :)
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Phaded » Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:57 am

I think one of the biggest problems about fantasy owners fixating on YPC is that at the end of the day - we just want fantasy points which comes from yards.

We do not care if an RB consistently gets 1-3 yards if he breaks off a huge run every once and a while. However, I am sure that real life NFL teams would rather have a guy that gets 3-4 consistently without the big runs. The NFL is a game of field positions and first downs, the latter helps you more with that.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby ascherb » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:17 pm

If the Chargers don't draft someone to step into more of a pass catching role and Gordon still gets 85 targets, I don't care what his ypc is.

I think a part of this whole thing is that coming out of college, we were all so sure a 6-1 RB who weighs less than 210 pounds certainly couldn't handle a full 3-down load. And that's what Gordon has done that for the most part. But I think we're still waiting for the Chargers to add a back to split time with Gordon, and because of that, we find it hard to get excited about him.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby clarion contrarion » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:28 am

I think after mulling it over a bit that gordon's biggest flaw and the reason why many dynasty managers are so low is he isn't JC superstar and never was going to be as jamaal charles is one of those guys that very very few can compare to in the first place . All the alleged experts knocked him for not being a receiving back coming out but they were looking at # and not skills now after 140+ catches in 3 years people find that his YPC is too low and again he sucks ?
I think rather than a pass catching back the chargers need to find a bruiser type and have gordon be the 2 and half down back- let a josh adams or jarvion franklin type back handle the third and 1 or goal line stuff and two things happen
1) it hurts his td upside but his YPC & efficiency go up
2) it lengthens his longevity by saving some wear and tear on a dude not much over 200 lbs. Perhaps he gets a bit more explosive without the grinding of short yardage carries.

I only own 1 share but am quite comfortable with him as my rb1 on that team and I think he is an absolute bargain in startups or redraft leagues this year currently at 20th on the DLF ADP chart . If you take him in the 2nd after grabbing a primo wr or he is your rb 2 after picking another rb in round one you will find yourself in damned good shape when the seasons kicks off.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby ArrylT » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:34 pm

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ch ... vin-gordon

Probably not a surprise to anyone but Gordons 5th year option to be picked up.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jfever » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:37 am

Not a shocker. There is really not that much to NOT like about him when you dive into it. That is exactly why each and every single time I see the YPC BS getting brought up and the over use and mis understanding of statistical jargon getting thrown around, I usually chirp in.

I'll just keep it simple here this morning; M.Gordon is good at his job / as in, he is good at what he is asked to do considering the circumstances involved. The Chargers picking up his option I think was a foregone conclusion. They'd have been absolutely nuts not to do so.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby bucsrule » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:59 am

A running back who flirts with 300 points is okay for me. He is on a squad that led me to a title last year.

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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Vcize » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:36 am

JFever wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
While it is true that YPC is far from the end-all/be-all, and that some may over emphasize it too much, you clearly emphasize it far too little.

It is a tool like any other, but one of the most predictive tools of any stat we have to work with for long-term success. Yes there is the occasional Eddie George grinder that keeps grinding forever (and maybe Gordon will be that, but 2 guys in 20 years doesn't exactly make a pattern), but in general the guys that keep on trucking have at least a minimum measure of strong YPC.

If we look back a couple years to 2016 and see how YPC relates to guys that are still starting RBs (cutting off at guys with a minimum of 150 carries), the correlation is very strong. The top 5 runners in YPC are all still starting RBs today. The bottom 5 runners in YPC have all lost their starting jobs since then. In fact, of the botton 15 runners in YPC with at least 150 carries, only 3 are still starting RBs. Of the top 10 runners in YPC it looks like only DeMarco Murray won't be a starter this year, and a lot of that is probably that he's hit or approaching the age cliff.

Now of course, as you mention, there are many variables to YPC that can cause exceptions as there are with any statistic. Isaiah Crowell had a great YPC in 2016 while Todd Gurley's stunk. But generally, these are exceptions. And it only gets better when we start looking at things over multiple years with hundreds if not thousands of carries to average these variables out. Sure, it's not perfect (Crowell's career YPC is still the same as Gurley's), but in general it's a pretty strong statistic with fairly strong correlation relative to most statistics people are happy to use, especially when someone is poor in that statistic for multiple seasons. It also doesn't hurt that it's one of the most readily available statistics and easy to quickly find/reference.

Having a bad YPC isn't a death knell, but it certainly makes things more difficult.

Your characterization of arguing with uniformed teenagers is arrogant and dubious, especially for someone who's spent the majority of the thread just kind of throwing ideas at the wall without doing the math only to see them bounce back in your face when someone puts in the work (IE the redzone theory above).

Maybe the Chargers are really very happy with Gordon for all that he brings to the table. Maybe they draft a RB on day 2 to split time. There wouldn't be any maybe's if his YPC were 4.9 instead of 3.9.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jfever » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:51 am

Arbitrary cutt-offs at 150 carries just to keep it easy.... not a good start.

But Ok, I'll take the bait and bite. I don't think I emphasize it "Far too little" at all. I completely and fully understand where it comes from, what it means, and what variables go into a good and a poor YPC numbers. Although I do appreciate some of your points in what you shared above, to be clear, I think I've made it quite clear, that it (YPC), is a tool to be used, not over used. It is NOT a statistic that has a direct correlation to ability or skill level. It just isn't. It much more so has a correlation on Offensive line scheme, offensive line health, level of Qb play, TE blocking ability, schedule, down and distance, game script, health of offensive contributing players, Wr ability to block, etc, etc, etc. NEVER said it was to be ignored. Not one single time have I ever hinted toward people ignoring YPC. I simply think it is FAR overused in fantasy circles as some way to measure rb ability.

That just isn't reality.
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby Jfever » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:58 am

Vcize wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:36 am
JFever wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
While it is true that YPC is far from the end-all/be-all, and that some may over emphasize it too much, you clearly emphasize it far too little.

It is a tool like any other, but one of the most predictive tools of any stat we have to work with for long-term success. :shock: :shock: :shock: It is NOT the be all / end all predictive tool like some like to insinuate that it is. Yes there is the occasional Eddie George grinder that keeps grinding forever (and maybe Gordon will be that, but 2 guys in 20 years doesn't exactly make a pattern), but in general the guys that keep on trucking have at least a minimum measure of strong YPC.

If we look back a couple years to 2016 and see how YPC relates to guys that are still starting RBs (cutting off at guys with a minimum of 150 carries), the correlation is very strong. The top 5 runners in YPC are all still starting RBs today. The bottom 5 runners in YPC have all lost their starting jobs since then. In fact, of the botton 15 runners in YPC with at least 150 carries, only 3 are still starting RBs. Of the top 10 runners in YPC it looks like only DeMarco Murray won't be a starter this year, and a lot of that is probably that he's hit or approaching the age cliff.
* Drastic over simplification here. Plus some completely arbitrary numbers injected as cut off points. Also, it ignores the short rb career trajectory, as well as offensive scheme, coaching changes, down and distance, etc.

Now of course, as you mention, there are many variables to YPC that can cause exceptions as there are with any statistic. Isaiah Crowell had a great YPC in 2016 while Todd Gurley's stunk. But generally, these are exceptions. And it only gets better when we start looking at things over multiple years with hundreds if not thousands of carries to average these variables out. Sure, it's not perfect (Crowell's career YPC is still the same as Gurley's), but in general it's a pretty strong statistic with fairly strong correlation relative to most statistics people are happy to use, especially when someone is poor in that statistic for multiple seasons. It also doesn't hurt that it's one of the most readily available statistics and easy to quickly find/reference.
* Prob don't have to elaborate as to why the easiest isn't the best method...

Having a bad YPC isn't a death knell, but it certainly makes things more difficult.
* agree here ^

Your characterization of arguing with uniformed teenagers is arrogant and dubious, especially for someone who's spent the majority of the thread just kind of throwing ideas at the wall without doing the math only to see them bounce back in your face when someone puts in the work (IE the redzone theory above).
* to this one, I'll just say it is better in my opinion to work smarter, not harder...

* without doing the math.... Do ALL the math you want. That means NOTHING if you don't take all situations into context. It just doesnt. If you are sensitive to someone calling out BS in reference to how YPC is used, I'm sorry you are sensitive, I'm not sorry for the rational ideas and explanations that I throw at the wall. I have yet to have someone "throw it in my face to the extent that a valid point has been made that somehow gives the meaning to YPC that some think it possesses".

Maybe the Chargers are really very happy with Gordon for all that he brings to the table. Maybe they draft a RB on day 2 to split time. There wouldn't be any maybe's if his YPC were 4.9 instead of 3.9.
Maybe you are right and they do bring someone in to add depth to their rb corp. Or, maybe they solidify their run blocking by bringing in a guard on day one or day two, or they alter their play calling, any of which could have a positive effect on the ypc data point, all the while - M.Gordon didn't just magically get or attain more running ability, or somehow morph into a "Better runner" - which the improved YPC would somehow make it seem like. :nono: :crazy:
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Re: Talk to me about Melvin Gordon

Postby bsp27 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:42 pm

JFever wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:58 am
Vcize wrote: Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:36 am
JFever wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.
While it is true that YPC is far from the end-all/be-all, and that some may over emphasize it too much, you clearly emphasize it far too little.

It is a tool like any other, but one of the most predictive tools of any stat we have to work with for long-term success. :shock: :shock: :shock: It is NOT the be all / end all predictive tool like some like to insinuate that it is. Yes there is the occasional Eddie George grinder that keeps grinding forever (and maybe Gordon will be that, but 2 guys in 20 years doesn't exactly make a pattern), but in general the guys that keep on trucking have at least a minimum measure of strong YPC.

If we look back a couple years to 2016 and see how YPC relates to guys that are still starting RBs (cutting off at guys with a minimum of 150 carries), the correlation is very strong. The top 5 runners in YPC are all still starting RBs today. The bottom 5 runners in YPC have all lost their starting jobs since then. In fact, of the botton 15 runners in YPC with at least 150 carries, only 3 are still starting RBs. Of the top 10 runners in YPC it looks like only DeMarco Murray won't be a starter this year, and a lot of that is probably that he's hit or approaching the age cliff.
* Drastic over simplification here. Plus some completely arbitrary numbers injected as cut off points. Also, it ignores the short rb career trajectory, as well as offensive scheme, coaching changes, down and distance, etc.

Now of course, as you mention, there are many variables to YPC that can cause exceptions as there are with any statistic. Isaiah Crowell had a great YPC in 2016 while Todd Gurley's stunk. But generally, these are exceptions. And it only gets better when we start looking at things over multiple years with hundreds if not thousands of carries to average these variables out. Sure, it's not perfect (Crowell's career YPC is still the same as Gurley's), but in general it's a pretty strong statistic with fairly strong correlation relative to most statistics people are happy to use, especially when someone is poor in that statistic for multiple seasons. It also doesn't hurt that it's one of the most readily available statistics and easy to quickly find/reference.
* Prob don't have to elaborate as to why the easiest isn't the best method...

Having a bad YPC isn't a death knell, but it certainly makes things more difficult.
* agree here ^

Your characterization of arguing with uniformed teenagers is arrogant and dubious, especially for someone who's spent the majority of the thread just kind of throwing ideas at the wall without doing the math only to see them bounce back in your face when someone puts in the work (IE the redzone theory above).
* to this one, I'll just say it is better in my opinion to work smarter, not harder...

* without doing the math.... Do ALL the math you want. That means NOTHING if you don't take all situations into context. It just doesnt. If you are sensitive to someone calling out BS in reference to how YPC is used, I'm sorry you are sensitive, I'm not sorry for the rational ideas and explanations that I throw at the wall. I have yet to have someone "throw it in my face to the extent that a valid point has been made that somehow gives the meaning to YPC that some think it possesses".

Maybe the Chargers are really very happy with Gordon for all that he brings to the table. Maybe they draft a RB on day 2 to split time. There wouldn't be any maybe's if his YPC were 4.9 instead of 3.9.
Maybe you are right and they do bring someone in to add depth to their rb corp. Or, maybe they solidify their run blocking by bringing in a guard on day one or day two, or they alter their play calling, any of which could have a positive effect on the ypc data point, all the while - M.Gordon didn't just magically get or attain more running ability, or somehow morph into a "Better runner" - which the improved YPC would somehow make it seem like. :nono: :crazy:
The problem with his abysmal ypc is that it potentially threatens his future workload. An NFL team will not continue to give a player 20+ carries a game if he is extremely inefficient with those carries. There were already rumors of the Chargers looking to draft an rb high in the draft to limit Gordon's workload. League bottom ypc matters because his team won't continue to feed him, as long as they find a suitable complement to him in the backfield.
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