Melvin Gordon value

[dynastyninja]

Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.

What is this based off of?

Fantasy rankings.

As in points per game or something else?

[dynastyninja]

Additionally,

the list of RB's with >2,500 rushing yards, >1,000 receiving yards through their first 3 seasons since 1999 sorted by rush yards:

1. Chris Johnson
2. LaDanian Tomlinson
3. Edgerrin James
4. Frank Gore
5. Todd Gurley
6. Steven Jackson
7. Matt Forte
8. Domanick Williams
9. Ricky Williams
10. Deuce McCallister
11. Arian Foster
12. LeSean McCoy
13. Ray Rice
14. Jamaal Charles
15. Le'Veon Bell
16. Melvin Gordon
17. Maurice Jones-Drew

I'd venture to guess that his efficiency has been lower than almost everyone on that list.

I like the guy and can see his talent. I would own him in certain circumstances, but I can't see how you aren't concerned that he hasn't been able to crack 4 yards per carry (which is generally the baseline for even an average running back) in any of his first three seasons.

[dynastyninja]

In a 12 team startup, I would be comfortable with Gordon as my 3rd round pick. His current ADP of 20 puts him as a 2nd rounder, which is too risky for me.

[Phaded]

I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol

[Goddard]

I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol

You can also add that he had 80 total first downs, which was third most in the NFL. Obviously not all 80 of those first downs came on short yardage plays, but I'd assume a lot of them were situations where he just needed to gain 1 or 2 yards to keep the drive going...which would also lead to a drop in his ypc.

[mullmania]

I was going to post that Forte had better receiving averages early in his career but Gordon beats him there.

I don't think Gordon is a good as his stats nor as bad as some want to think.

He's kind of like a souped up Lamar Miller to me who plays on a great offense.

[FantasyFreak]

Talk to you about Melvin Gordon. OK.

One of the best college producers in history, had well above average scores in his athletic testing. Struggled his rookie year, but came back strong his sophomore season and his 3rd year with workhorse like production behind a below average offensive line. Silenced critics about his lack of receiving production/skills in college with 99 reception over the last 2 seasons. Hard worker, good teammate, and plays in an above average offense, that has finally put some stock into building the interior OL. This season he should have the opportunity to be much more efficient with his carries.

[Vcize]

I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol

This was already debunked a little while back, though with regards to "short yardage carries" instead of red zone carries (I think short yardage carries are far more relevant).

There was a podcast where someone (maybe even a DLF staffer, I can't recall) asserted what Melvin Gordon's YPC would have been if you removed all his carries inside the 5 and all his carries on 3rd/4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go. He made it out to be a big deal. But he didn't provide any context by comparing how much it changed his YPC relative to other RBs. As it turned out, when you ran the same algorithm on other RBs in the league the amount it affected Gordon's YPC ended up being almost exactly average compared to how it affected other back's YPC.

[maxhyde]

I was going to post that Forte had better receiving averages early in his career but Gordon beats him there.

I don't think Gordon is a good as his stats nor as bad as some want to think.

He's kind of like a souped up Lamar Miller to me who plays on a great offense.

Uh part of the reason the offense is good is because Gordon is converting 1st downs and scoring TD's. SD had many years of Rivers throwing the ball around the yard and mediocre seasons. Anyway time will tell but not many options for a RB1 at his reasonable cost...I mean I bet in most of my leagues I could swap a 1.03/4 type pick for him...the hate is real

Miller is kinda the opposite. He was pretty efficient in MIA then moved on to HOU and has been pretty disappointing to be generous

[Pullo Vision]

I think one of the things that gets overlooked with Gordon is how often he is used in the red zone - which is going to reduce your overall YPC the more that you get used in the red zone. Generally, your YPC will be less in the red zone. So when you get more carries in the red zone, your YPC is going to take a dive in most cases. Gordon was 3rd in the league in red zone carries (behind only Gurley & Bell); including a hideous 14 carries for 2 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 5. Beyond that, he had 49 carries for 107 yards in the red zone.

Gordon's Red Zone YPC was better than some popular names like McCoy, Ingram, Freeman & Fournette just as an example. But he had more red zone carries than them. So it drives down his overall YPC more than it would these guys.

...funny enough on that note, somehow Jordan Howard is more effective in the red zone than rest of the field and he seems to be the only RB like that... odd. lol

This was already debunked a little while back, though with regards to "short yardage carries" instead of red zone carries (I think short yardage carries are far more relevant).

There was a podcast where someone (maybe even a DLF staffer, I can't recall) asserted what Melvin Gordon's YPC would have been if you removed all his carries inside the 5 and all his carries on 3rd/4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go. He made it out to be a big deal. But he didn't provide any context by comparing how much it changed his YPC relative to other RBs. As it turned out, when you ran the same algorithm on other RBs in the league the amount it affected Gordon's YPC ended up being almost exactly average compared to how it affected other back's YPC.

I was going to post the same thing. I remember the argument bring put forward, and later debunked, just fuzzy on source and details.

[Phaded]

I would like a source of the alleged "debunking" - because the logic makes zero sense.

Do almost all RBs have worse efficiency in the red zone than they do the rest of the field? Yes, aside from like I said earlier; Jordan Howard for some reason (how he is more productive in the red zone - beats me).

However - more carries would mean more rushes at a less productive YPC which would influence it greater.

I also believe that it is more difficult to produce rushing yards in these situations as the "coaching handbook" says you run in these situations, so teams are ready for it. Which is why in almost all cases - running backs have a lower YPC in the red zone or in short yardage situations.

[lukkynumber13]

(Sung like the old Sunday school song)

"Melvin Gordon sucks I know, yards per carry tells me so"

[FantasyFreak]

I would like a source of the alleged "debunking" - because the logic makes zero sense.

Do almost all RBs have worse efficiency in the red zone than they do the rest of the field? Yes, aside from like I said earlier; Jordan Howard for some reason (how he is more productive in the red zone - beats me).

However - more carries would mean more rushes at a less productive YPC which would influence it greater.

I also believe that it is more difficult to produce rushing yards in these situations as the "coaching handbook" says you run in these situations, so teams are ready for it. Which is why in almost all cases - running backs have a lower YPC in the red zone or in short yardage situations.

It goes further, too. It's the same with a guy like Fournette. How many games last year did the just hand the ball to him in the 4th quarter with a ten point lead, where everybody and their grandmother knows they are going to run, to try and kill the clock and hold the lead. There were games where Fournette's YPC were atrocious because of this, and his overall YPC on the year were 3.9, but there were so many sitational carries where 3-4 yards were all that was needed, and that's what he got. You can't say Fournette wasn't good because of his YPC. Getting those 10 yards on 3 straight carries and resetting the downs when all 11 defenders know exactly who's getting the ball may show up poorly in the box score, but is a tremendous value to his team, and the will continue to give him the ball to tough out those difficult yards in the 4th at the expense of his YPC. 2nd and 7 isn't a short yardage situation, but in the 4th quarter with a lead, the situation gives the defense license to stack the box and make gaining even a few yard extremely difficult compared to a 2nd and 7 in the first quarter.

[Vcize]

I would like a source of the alleged "debunking" - because the logic makes zero sense.

Do almost all RBs have worse efficiency in the red zone than they do the rest of the field? Yes, aside from like I said earlier; Jordan Howard for some reason (how he is more productive in the red zone - beats me).

However - more carries would mean more rushes at a less productive YPC which would influence it greater.

I also believe that it is more difficult to produce rushing yards in these situations as the "coaching handbook" says you run in these situations, so teams are ready for it. Which is why in almost all cases - running backs have a lower YPC in the red zone or in short yardage situations.

I just looked and you are correct that the redzone as a whole, not just goal to go situations does negatively impact a player's YPC. I was surprised, but YPC did decrease between the 10-20 yard line as well.

As to how the logic works, part of it may be that the study was done early this year, so there have been more games played since then (it was referencing mostly the 2016 seasons, which was the most recent at the time). Part of it is also probably that all starting RBs have a lot of carries in this situation and having 10-15 more carries in them just doesn't have the impact against 250 carries that you think it might. And of course, the obvious, which is that MG's non-RZ YPC was already lower than the other guys, so naturally a collection of low YPC runs is going to have less negative impact on his YPC. A 2 yard run hurts a guy who averaged 6ypc in other scenarios a lot more than it hurts a guy only averaged 4ypc in other scenarios.

Regardless, looking specifically at what you're referencing and looking only at RZ carries in 2017, it still doesn't seem to have the impact you are implying (hoping?).

If you remove all of MG's redzone carries, his YPC improves by only 0.3. Which just as referenced before, looks pretty much right on the average. Here's how the top fantasy back's YPC changes if you remove all of their RZ carries from last year (IE you would read this as Gurley's YPC would be 0.6 higher if you remove all of his redzone carries).

Gurley: +0.6
Ingram: +0.5
Freeman: +0.5
Ajayi: +0.4
Kamara: +0.4
Hyde: +0.4
McCoy: +0.3
Gordon: +0.3
Bell: +0.3
Hunt: +0.3
Fournette: +0.2
Elliott: +0.2
Lewis: +0.2
Howard: -0.2

I got tired of doing that math at that point but as you can see, MG isn't some outlier in terms of how much his RZ carries impacted his YPC.

[Jfever]

I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.