Melvin Gordon value

[ericanadian]

Those knocking Gordon and complaining about his 3.9 ypc should look into Whisenhunts history. He ran with way worse averages as a coach in Tennessee and cast aside efficient RBs like Sankey. He cut his teeth in
Pittsburgh with 3 yards and a cloud of dust when Bettis was still playing. He continues to run that offense and he's rarely gotten much ypc from his lead back. Willie Parker was the one consistent exception and his career was 3 years and a cloud of dust.

[maxhyde]

Pretty funny we as fantasy people have bitched about lack of bell cow RB's for years and Gordon has become that very guy and people don't want him.
He gets touches and you need touches to score points. Who cares if he isn't uber efficient or you don't like his style or think he sucks? He has back to back years of being an RB1 at a cost of much less than rookie 1.01. Not sure what else you want

[Vcize]

Pretty funny we as fantasy people have bitched about lack of bell cow RB's for years and Gordon has become theat very guy and people don't want him.
He gets touches and you need touches to score points. Who cares if he isn't uber efficient or you don't like his style or think he sucks? He has back to back years of being an RB1 at a cost of much less than rookie 1.01. Not sure what else you want

Well, potentially his coaches, which becomes relevant as to whether or not he keeps that volume (which is the entirety of his value) going forward.

You can't use last year's points this year. There are a lot of RBs that have put together good fantasy seasons with volume and poor efficiency, and they have a pretty tenuous record of holding on to that volume long term without that efficiency improving pretty quickly. Zac Stacy is still only 26 years old, and people once made this same argument for him among many others (hello Trent Richardson). Obviously Gordon is better than Stacy, but there's a reason there aren't many examples of guys holding on to their job long term with efficiency that is this poor. It's pretty much just Eddie George but that was a long time ago for a pretty weird coach, and even he had cracked 4ypc by this point in his career.

[Phaded]

I have to ask - why the arbitrary focus on 4.0YPC? It's not that much different from 3.9YPC; you are literally talking about the difference of 1 yard every 10 carries.

And if you think his coaches have soured on him; read this.

[Goddard]

With Gordon, it's not just about his ypc. You can compare him to other RBs that averaged less than 4ypc if you want, but he probably does so many other things better than those other RBs that we just don't see on paper. Not even mentioning his pass catching ability and scoring TDs, the coaches and Rivers trust him. He can pass block, doesn't turn the ball over, and plays smart. If you're just talking about RBs who averaged under 4ypc and were also bad at other parts of the game, then there's a reason they got benched and you can't compare Gordon to them. Guys like Stacy and Richardson weren't really known for catching passes, not sure how they were in pass protection, but also had a lot of other negatives going for them that Gordon probably doesn't. Playing RB is no longer about just taking the handoff and trying to gain as many yards as you can. We already know one of the biggest reasons Gordon's ypc is low is due to the offensive line. If you can't see that, you're just not watching the games...I don't care what the numbers say or rank their o-line. But he does so many other things well, that he'll continue getting touches even if his ypc doesn't improve drastically.

[Jason3123]

He's the new Matt Forte. Forte had 2 years of sub 4.0 YPC before climbing it to 4.5. Gordon has 3 years sub 4, I bet he gets over that hump with the improvements of their line. He will continue to be a 220+ carry guy and probably 40-50 catches as well as Rivers has always historically thrown to RB's.

[ericanadian]

He's the new Matt Forte. Forte had 2 years of sub 4.0 YPC before climbing it to 4.5. Gordon has 3 years sub 4, I bet he gets over that hump with the improvements of their line. He will continue to be a 220+ carry guy and probably 40-50 catches as well as Rivers has always historically thrown to RB's.

Beat me there. Was just about to point that out.

[Jason3123]

Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.

[dynastyninja]

I have to ask - why the arbitrary focus on 4.0YPC? It's not that much different from 3.9YPC; you are literally talking about the difference of 1 yard every 10 carries.

And if you think his coaches have soured on him; read this.

4.0 is just an easy number to look at. Even 4.0 isn't good, though. I want 4.5+ if I'm going to truly invest in a guy.

[dynastyninja]

Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.

What is this based off of?

[Jason3123]

Also, similar guys to Gordon's career arc so far:

Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Ray Rice
Duece McCallister

Very confident in saying he'll have at least 1 more RB1 season, but most likely multiple.

What is this based off of?

Fantasy rankings.

[Jason3123]

Additionally,

the list of RB's with >2,500 rushing yards, >1,000 receiving yards through their first 3 seasons since 1999 sorted by rush yards:

1. Chris Johnson
2. LaDanian Tomlinson
3. Edgerrin James
4. Frank Gore
5. Todd Gurley
6. Steven Jackson
7. Matt Forte
8. Domanick Williams
9. Ricky Williams
10. Deuce McCallister
11. Arian Foster
12. LeSean McCoy
13. Ray Rice
14. Jamaal Charles
15. Le'Veon Bell
16. Melvin Gordon
17. Maurice Jones-Drew

[Phaded]

Quite the list, that's for sure..

[Vcize]

He's the new Matt Forte. Forte had 2 years of sub 4.0 YPC before climbing it to 4.5. Gordon has 3 years sub 4, I bet he gets over that hump with the improvements of their line. He will continue to be a 220+ carry guy and probably 40-50 catches as well as Rivers has always historically thrown to RB's.

Well the obvious difference is that Forte increased his YPC all the way up to 4.5 in his 3rd year, while Gordon languished away at the same 3.9 without really showing any improvement in his 3rd year.

The further we go into the career the worse things get. There are a good handful of guys that had one sub-4ypc season and then turned it around and held onto the job long-term, though the percentages still aren't exactly good even when talking about one year. There are a small handful of guys that had multiple sub-4ypc seasons and then turned it around and held on to the job long-term, though at this point the odds are getting pretty long. There are virtually no guys that got significant carries for 3 years at sub-4ypc and were still their team's starter long-term.

I'm willing to play long odds, but not at short prices. It's certainly possible that Gordon improves his YPC by almost a full yard suddenly like Forte did, but it seems like a pretty low percentage play for a guy being valued relatively high.

[Phaded]

I think another thing you have to consider is the injuries that Gordon dealt with all year - and instead of sitting out, he opted to play through them which no doubt limited him some (by how much, no one can really say though).

I mean, he was literally listed with an injury to his shoulder, foot, knee and ankle at different points throughout the year.