Alvin Kamara Regression

[Titans95]

Why are so many people convinced kamara will regress in 2018? Peoples only argument is that there is no away he will sustain 7.7 yards per touch. He consistently made all pro players look average at best all year long. He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO. On top of that I don't think people realize but Kamara is actually BIGGER than Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. There's no reason not to think he can carry the rock 200-250 times per year. Ingram began to seem fewer and fewer snaps towards the end of the year, all the way to the point I think it was something like 65/35% in kamara's favor in the playoffs. If he carries the ball within that range and still catches the ball 80 times a year now all of a sudden we are looking at Gurley, DJ, and Bell level of production even if his yards per touch come down to 6 or 5.5.

Thoughts?

[FantasyFreak]

Why are so many people convinced kamara will regress in 2018? Peoples only argument is that there is no away he will sustain 7.7 yards per touch. He consistently made all pro players look average at best all year long. He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO. On top of that I don't think people realize but Kamara is actually BIGGER than Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. There's no reason not to think he can carry the rock 200-250 times per year. Ingram began to seem fewer and fewer snaps towards the end of the year, all the way to the point I think it was something like 65/35% in kamara's favor in the playoffs. If he carries the ball within that range and still catches the ball 80 times a year now all of a sudden we are looking at Gurley, DJ, and Bell level of production even if his yards per touch come down to 6 or 5.5.

Thoughts?

That's up for debate as well. Also, guys like Gurley, Lev Bell and DJ were below type backs in college. Kamara never carried the ball more than 107 times in college. He may be able to carry the ball like these guys, but he may not be able to. We haven't seen it.

[GridironGuerilla]

He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO.

Congratulations on your Kamara share.

[Titans95]

Why are so many people convinced kamara will regress in 2018? Peoples only argument is that there is no away he will sustain 7.7 yards per touch. He consistently made all pro players look average at best all year long. He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO. On top of that I don't think people realize but Kamara is actually BIGGER than Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. There's no reason not to think he can carry the rock 200-250 times per year. Ingram began to seem fewer and fewer snaps towards the end of the year, all the way to the point I think it was something like 65/35% in kamara's favor in the playoffs. If he carries the ball within that range and still catches the ball 80 times a year now all of a sudden we are looking at Gurley, DJ, and Bell level of production even if his yards per touch come down to 6 or 5.5.

Thoughts?

That's up for debate as well. Also, guys like Gurley, Lev Bell and DJ were below type backs in college. Kamara never carried the ball more than 107 times in college. He may be able to carry the ball like these guys, but he may not be able to. We haven't seen it.

Thats fair, but Kamara always had Jalen Hurd as the bellcow back in front of him at UT and Butch Jones has gotten so much flak for not using kamara more in college even though he was way more efficient than Jalen Hurd.

[Titans95]

He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO.

Congratulations on your Kamara share.

just starting a conversation

[joeya2001]

well you have your opinion, as we do as well.

Most of us find it un realistic that hes the next Jamal Charles.

Is he talented. Yes.

Is he in a good situation. Yes.

could he have done this with the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Giants, ect.. Probably not.

Don't worry what ppl think, and just enjoy it. im sure 100% of us here would gladly take him, but to expect that year in and out, your setting your self up for disappointment.

[GridironGuerilla]

He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO.

Congratulations on your Kamara share.

just starting a conversation

I'm totally just messing around with you. And I have no shares so I'm just jealous lol.

[Titans95]

Congratulations on your Kamara share.

just starting a conversation

I'm totally just messing around with you. And I have no shares so I'm just jealous lol.

Neither do I but I really want to trade for him because I think its very realistic for him to average 1400-1500 total yards a season. I think the 13 touchdowns he had this year are the big regression risk. But my main issue is I feel like if I trade for him I'd be trading him at an all time high instead of when his value comes down a little bit.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

He's not bigger than Kareem Hunt. And he'll regress for the same reason Hunt regressed... he's not going to avg. 6.1 YPC for his career. Kamara had 3 games of over 10 carries and averaged less than 4 YPC in 2 of them.

well you have your opinion, as we do as well.

Most of us find it un realistic that hes the next Jamal Charles.

Is he talented. Yes.

Is he in a good situation. Yes.

could he have done this with the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Giants, ect.. Probably not.

Don't worry what ppl think, and just enjoy it. im sure 100% of us here would gladly take him, but to expect that year in and out, your setting your self up for disappointment.

this pretty much sums it up.

[Titans95]

He's not bigger than Kareem Hunt. And he'll regress for the same reason Hunt regressed... he's not going to avg. 6.1 YPC for his career. Kamara had 3 games of over 10 carries and averaged less than 4 YPC in 2 of them.

well you have your opinion, as we do as well.

Most of us find it un realistic that hes the next Jamal Charles.

Is he talented. Yes.

Is he in a good situation. Yes.

could he have done this with the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Giants, ect.. Probably not.

Don't worry what ppl think, and just enjoy it. im sure 100% of us here would gladly take him, but to expect that year in and out, your setting your self up for disappointment.

this pretty much sums it up.

whether e can do it with the browns or jets is irrelevant is it not? He's on the saints, that part of the appeal. I'm not saying he will put up 315 ppr fantasy points every year but is it not realistic to assume he will be up in that range if he can up his carries into the 180-200 per year while still catching 70-80 balls? Of course his efficiency will go down but its not like he is a chris thompson who cant carry the ball more than 5 times a game. he just needs to be in the 10-15 carries a game range.

[Lssd2012]

Why are so many people convinced kamara will regress in 2018? Peoples only argument is that there is no away he will sustain 7.7 yards per touch. He consistently made all pro players look average at best all year long. He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO. On top of that I don't think people realize but Kamara is actually BIGGER than Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. There's no reason not to think he can carry the rock 200-250 times per year. Ingram began to seem fewer and fewer snaps towards the end of the year, all the way to the point I think it was something like 65/35% in kamara's favor in the playoffs. If he carries the ball within that range and still catches the ball 80 times a year now all of a sudden we are looking at Gurley, DJ, and Bell level of production even if his yards per touch come down to 6 or 5.5.

Thoughts?

Since you compared him to Jamaal Charles, let's look at his yards per touch values over the course of his prime years:

2008: 6.69
2009: 6.16
2010: 7.04
2011: 5.41
2012: 5.45
2013: 6.02
2014: 5.38
2015: 5.88

In his career, Jamaal Charles averaged a YPT of 6.00 which is roughly ~22% less efficient than the 7.7 YPT Kamara posted. Thus if you think Kamara's ceiling is Jamaal Charles, you should expect his YPT to similarly decrease down to Jamaal Charles levels, which is a 22% decrease in production. So it seems that even you yourself believe Kamara will regress as well haha.

Taking into account this 22% decline in YPT down to Jamaal Charles level (your comparison), Kamara would need a 22% increase in touches just to match last year's production which is possible but will be difficult with Ingram still back there.

[joeya2001]

He's not bigger than Kareem Hunt. And he'll regress for the same reason Hunt regressed... he's not going to avg. 6.1 YPC for his career. Kamara had 3 games of over 10 carries and averaged less than 4 YPC in 2 of them.

well you have your opinion, as we do as well.

Most of us find it un realistic that hes the next Jamal Charles.

Is he talented. Yes.

Is he in a good situation. Yes.

could he have done this with the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Giants, ect.. Probably not.

Don't worry what ppl think, and just enjoy it. im sure 100% of us here would gladly take him, but to expect that year in and out, your setting your self up for disappointment.

this pretty much sums it up.

whether e can do it with the browns or jets is irrelevant is it not? He's on the saints, that part of the appeal. I'm not saying he will put up 315 ppr fantasy points every year but is it not realistic to assume he will be up in that range if he can up his carries into the 180-200 per year while still catching 70-80 balls? Of course his efficiency will go down but its not like he is a chris thompson who cant carry the ball more than 5 times a game. he just needs to be in the 10-15 carries a game range.

I guess well have to see once teams game plan around him now!

[Space Cowboy]

Honestly, I feel like he was just so incredibly good last year that people are just expecting a natural regression. Not because of size or talent, just because the NFL isn't supposed to be that easy. He did it all and was silky smooth.

[Titans95]

Why are so many people convinced kamara will regress in 2018? Peoples only argument is that there is no away he will sustain 7.7 yards per touch. He consistently made all pro players look average at best all year long. He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO. On top of that I don't think people realize but Kamara is actually BIGGER than Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. There's no reason not to think he can carry the rock 200-250 times per year. Ingram began to seem fewer and fewer snaps towards the end of the year, all the way to the point I think it was something like 65/35% in kamara's favor in the playoffs. If he carries the ball within that range and still catches the ball 80 times a year now all of a sudden we are looking at Gurley, DJ, and Bell level of production even if his yards per touch come down to 6 or 5.5.

Thoughts?

Since you compared him to Jamaal Charles, let's look at his yards per touch values over the course of his prime years:

2008: 6.69
2009: 6.16
2010: 7.04
2011: 5.41
2012: 5.45
2013: 6.02
2014: 5.38
2015: 5.88

In his career, Jamaal Charles averaged a YPT of 6.00 which is roughly ~22% less efficient than the 7.7 YPT Kamara posted. Thus if you think Kamara's ceiling is Jamaal Charles, you should expect his YPT to similarly decrease down to Jamaal Charles levels, which is a 22% decrease in production. So it seems that even you yourself believe Kamara will regress as well haha.

Taking into account this 22% decline in YPT down to Jamaal Charles level (your comparison), Kamara would need a 22% increase in touches just to match last year's production which is possible but will be difficult with Ingram still back there.

Just based on not having AP there for the first 3 games will increase his touches without an change in usage. All I'm saying is he literally only carried the ball 120 times last year. He was better that ingram in practically every metric besides for goal line carries and he is the same size as kareem hunt who carried the ball 270+ times last year. Do I think Kamara will be a bellcow back next year? No. Do I think he could easily go from 120 carries to 200 and still be in a 50/50 timeshare with Ingram? Yes. Everyone keeps screaming regression when hardly anyone is talking about the potential of increased usage. Ingram is 28 years old on his way out the door in new orleans, why is it so crazy to assume kamara will start to take a larger role within the offense.

[James McGhee]

People hyping Kamara as the next stud RB are going to be disappointed. We've already seen his ceiling. He's not going to be as efficient as he was in '17 with more touches. That's just pure fantasy driven by this absurd desire for bell cow running backs. We need more cow bells! I mean bell cows.

Buy if you want but an unrealistic and borderline impossible ceiling has been fantasized and cooked into his price already. "He's better than Ingram" "He's going to get more touches" "Imagine if you project his efficiency to 250 touches!"

Good luck.