Stop calling Sammy Watkins a stud

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TryingToWin
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:55 am

I think this is a damn good signing for the Chiefs, Watkins, and Mahomes.

After more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first 2 seasons, Watkins has been a patience play since 2015 with 9 missed games and a significant drop in production in Buffalo and with the Rams. Watkins goes to Kansas City with a strong-armed, bold-throwing quarterback and Andy Reid, 2 ingredients for a rebound (at minimum). Tyreek Hill is more speed-based ancillary receiver than a lead option, thrusting Watkins into the centerpiece role of the receiver corps.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:57 am

TryingToWin wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:55 am I think this is a damn good signing for the Chiefs, Watkins, and Mahomes.

After more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first 2 seasons, Watkins has been a patience play since 2015 with 9 missed games and a significant drop in production in Buffalo and with the Rams. Watkins goes to Kansas City with a strong-armed, bold-throwing quarterback and Andy Reid, 2 ingredients for a rebound (at minimum). Tyreek Hill is more speed-based ancillary receiver than a lead option, thrusting Watkins into the centerpiece role of the receiver corps.
This is the optimistic take. I'm admittedly biased but don't hate it.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady, K. Cousins
RB: M. Gordon, D. Cook, T. Coleman, J. McKinnon, I. Smith
WR: B. Cooks, J. Jones, A.J. Green, S. Watkins, M. Williams, M. Valdes-Scantling, J. Ross, M. Lee, T. Taylor, P. Richardson
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
TAXI: B. Snell, M. Weber, K. Warring
2021: 3rd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:07 pm

btv802 wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:57 am
TryingToWin wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:55 am I think this is a damn good signing for the Chiefs, Watkins, and Mahomes.

After more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns over his first 2 seasons, Watkins has been a patience play since 2015 with 9 missed games and a significant drop in production in Buffalo and with the Rams. Watkins goes to Kansas City with a strong-armed, bold-throwing quarterback and Andy Reid, 2 ingredients for a rebound (at minimum). Tyreek Hill is more speed-based ancillary receiver than a lead option, thrusting Watkins into the centerpiece role of the receiver corps.
This is the optimistic take. I'm admittedly biased but don't hate it.
Agreed. That's a sexy narrative, I just hope it comes to fruition!
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Kaz » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm

I'm sticking with the opinion that this is a massive overpay. There's just no way that Sammy is worth 16m a year. He can't stay on the field, and I'm thinking at best he's going to be a 60-75 catch, 1k yards guy. You could have likely signed both M.Lee and P.Richardson for that price and got the same production from either one or the pair of them.
QB: Brees, Ryan
RB: J.Taylor, K.Hunt, R.Jones, Dillon, McKinnon
WR: D.Adams, T.Hill, A.Rob, Lockett, Anderson, P.Campbell, C.Samuel
TE: Kittle, Olsen, D.Sample
DL: Ngakoue, E.Griffen, J.Sweat, Bowser
LB: Mosley, D.Jones, Warner, Treviathan, R. Evans, Okereke, M.Harrison
DB: J.Johnson, T.Mathieu, T.Walker, J.Jones, X.Woods

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm

Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm He can't stay on the field
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady, K. Cousins
RB: M. Gordon, D. Cook, T. Coleman, J. McKinnon, I. Smith
WR: B. Cooks, J. Jones, A.J. Green, S. Watkins, M. Williams, M. Valdes-Scantling, J. Ross, M. Lee, T. Taylor, P. Richardson
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
TAXI: B. Snell, M. Weber, K. Warring
2021: 3rd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm

Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm I'm sticking with the opinion that this is a massive overpay. There's just no way that Sammy is worth 16m a year. He can't stay on the field, and I'm thinking at best he's going to be a 60-75 catch, 1k yards guy. You could have likely signed both M.Lee and P.Richardson for that price and got the same production from either one or the pair of them.


Why is it that fantasy football guys will justify overpaying for potential and talent all day long on their dynasty teams, but when an NFL team does it those same guys shake their heads?
This guy is a legitimate top 10 talent. That means his ceiling is ridiculously higher than the other guys out there. That’s not a guarantee, but is anything?

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby cweds » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:32 pm

Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm I'm sticking with the opinion that this is a massive overpay. There's just no way that Sammy is worth 16m a year. He can't stay on the field, and I'm thinking at best he's going to be a 60-75 catch, 1k yards guy. You could have likely signed both M.Lee and P.Richardson for that price and got the same production from either one or the pair of them.
Is it that crazy to believe the Chiefs paid Sammy a top 3 receiver salary because they think he's actually good? It's not like they have cap space to burn. Clearly, they see him as a talented player and have a vision for his role (likely an important one at this price).
Team 1 (3rd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Jamal Williams, Carson, AP, Lindsay, RJ
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, Trequan Smith, Pettis, MVS, J'mon Moore, C. Williams
TE: Olsen, Gescicki, Ebron, J. Smith
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th

Team 2 (2nd season):
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Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: DJ, Guice, Penny, Royce Freeman, Conner, Carson, Kelly, Dixon, Morris
WR: Allen, JJSS, Landry, Robinson, Watkins, Godwin, Callaway, Allison, Doctson, J. Moore, MVS
TE: Kelce, Njoku

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby Kaz » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:53 pm

btv802 wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm
Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm He can't stay on the field
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
Playing one full season does not erase several seasons worth of problems that either kept him off the field or severely limited him.
TryingToWin wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm Why is it that fantasy football guys will justify overpaying for potential and talent all day long on their dynasty teams, but when an NFL team does it those same guys shake their heads?
This guy is a legitimate top 10 talent. That means his ceiling is ridiculously higher than the other guys out there. That’s not a guarantee, but is anything?
We can justify it because our dynasty leagues are hobbies. Usually, the worst you'll be out is a couple hundred dollars if you are playing in the expensive money leagues. However, GMs are gambling with millions of dollars of cap, ticket sales, and other attendance base things. It's safe to say they are putting their jobs on the line, so it's up to them whether they want to risk it on paying for potential. Paying for potential and being right wins your superbowls. Being wrong wins you first spot in the unemployment line. I also disagree that he's a top 10 talent.
cweds wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:32 pm Is it that crazy to believe the Chiefs paid Sammy a top 3 receiver salary because they think he's actually good? It's not like they have cap space to burn. Clearly, they see him as a talented player and have a vision for his role (likely an important one at this price).
Not at all. I simply think they are wrong. Now, only time will tell who is right, but I will be mildly surprised if he plays all three years of his contract. I simply think Sammy is a middling #2 WR who will sometimes produce like a low end #1. I feel like the dynasty community has become so enraptured based on his physical stats and "potential" that they aren't reconciling it with his actual production. To me, he is the WR C.Mike, though a bit more productive. At 16m, that's simply too expensive for me to gamble on, especially for a team that had salary cap troubles coming into this FA.
QB: Brees, Ryan
RB: J.Taylor, K.Hunt, R.Jones, Dillon, McKinnon
WR: D.Adams, T.Hill, A.Rob, Lockett, Anderson, P.Campbell, C.Samuel
TE: Kittle, Olsen, D.Sample
DL: Ngakoue, E.Griffen, J.Sweat, Bowser
LB: Mosley, D.Jones, Warner, Treviathan, R. Evans, Okereke, M.Harrison
DB: J.Johnson, T.Mathieu, T.Walker, J.Jones, X.Woods

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby TryingToWin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:57 pm

Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:53 pm
TryingToWin wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:18 pm Why is it that fantasy football guys will justify overpaying for potential and talent all day long on their dynasty teams, but when an NFL team does it those same guys shake their heads?
This guy is a legitimate top 10 talent. That means his ceiling is ridiculously higher than the other guys out there. That’s not a guarantee, but is anything?
We can justify it because our dynasty leagues are hobbies. Usually, the worst you'll be out is a couple hundred dollars if you are playing in the expensive money leagues. However, GMs are gambling with millions of dollars of cap, ticket sales, and other attendance base things. It's safe to say they are putting their jobs on the line, so it's up to them whether they want to risk it on paying for potential. Paying for potential and being right wins your superbowls. Being wrong wins you first spot in the unemployment line. I also disagree that he's a top 10 talent.
I took that into account before writing my post. I don't think your reasoning is solid because if the Chiefs believe he is a top tier WR and the market drives his price to $16 milli, then the teams that believe in his talent will pay that price. Real life football GMs included.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby hankmurphy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:35 pm

I'm excited!

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby btv802 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:39 pm

Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:53 pm
btv802 wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
Playing one full season does not erase several seasons worth of problems that either kept him off the field or severely limited him.
Lol sure, but it's closer to the truth than saying he can't stay on the field. The most recent thing we've seen him do is exactly that.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, T. Brady, K. Cousins
RB: M. Gordon, D. Cook, T. Coleman, J. McKinnon, I. Smith
WR: B. Cooks, J. Jones, A.J. Green, S. Watkins, M. Williams, M. Valdes-Scantling, J. Ross, M. Lee, T. Taylor, P. Richardson
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
TAXI: B. Snell, M. Weber, K. Warring
2021: 3rd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby spotxc » Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:44 pm

I hope mahomes is the truth and sammy becomes a favorite since all these guys are starting rapport with mahomes

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby dipANDglide » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:33 pm

btv802 wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:27 pm
Kaz wrote: Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:19 pm He can't stay on the field
He just played a full season. I think we can put the foot issue in the rear-view.
Ty!!! This narrative has gotten out of hand.

I like this spot more than LAR and CHI. Reid and KC didn't pay him 16m/yr to give him 70 targets. Hill was great this year and I think he and Watkins can coexist and each get 100-125 targets. I expect WR2 as his ceiling year 1 with room to grow as Mahomes matures. I'm excited to see Mahomes and co.

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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:46 pm

Anyone on this forum should know by now, I am a HUGE Sammy truther. I love his talent.

But every time someone says "They wouldn't have paid him $16M/y to be an ancillary piece", I can't help but think "Ok but didn't we say the same thing about the Rams paying a 2nd for him??".

2nd round picks are real capital. Teams don't just throw them around lightly.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
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TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
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TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
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TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
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KITTLE, Goedert
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TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
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TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
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TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
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Re: Watkins to Chiefs

Postby ericanadian » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:38 pm

Watkins was brought in to replace Maclin. Reid was pissed over what happened with Maclin getting cut and this is the result. Watkins is definitely capped in KC. Reid spreads the ball around a lot and bringing in an Air Raid QB doesn't suggest a change in plans. How this effects guys like Hill will depend on how effective the offense is. Mahomes is going to need to spread the ball around to be effective and Reid can make that offense happen, but I think guys are going to disappear regularly.
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WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
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LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
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K - Just a stupid kicker


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