Stop calling Sammy Watkins a stud

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:04 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.


edit: oh my god https://www.google.com/search?client=op ... 8&oe=UTF-8

Sammy is now dead to me.
In terms of total points, Crabtree was WR12 in PPR last season.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:08 pm

Yes, but full-PPR is a minority format.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:10 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:08 pm Yes, but full-PPR is a minority format.
Full PPR is gradually becoming the default format. Either way, Crabtree put up WR1 numbers in some fashion last season.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby cweds » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm

Dynasty24 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm
ninotoreS wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby skip » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:08 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:10 pm
ninotoreS wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:08 pm Yes, but full-PPR is a minority format.
Full PPR is gradually becoming the default format. Either way, Crabtree put up WR1 numbers in some fashion last season.
Gradually??? It should be referred to as "standard" as it is the majority format from my experience. In the last 10+ years I've played in one half ppr league and all of the rest are full ppr.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:44 pm

skip wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:08 pm
Gradually??? It should be referred to as "standard" as it is the majority format from my experience. In the last 10+ years I've played in one half ppr league and all of the rest are full ppr.
Give it another couple of years and it will be the standard. The rise of DFS is pushing PPR that way. Even ESPN converted to it as the default.

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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ericanadian » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:53 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm
Dynasty24 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm
ninotoreS wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm Crabtree was not a WR1 last year.

Anyway...

My early optimism regarding Watkins to LA has cooled. Mainly because Jared Goff still isn't flashing any sort of credible deep-ball. In fact, his worst throws are usually deep shots outside the hashmarks. This isn't good for Sammy Watkins.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
Technically not true as two of the targets you're considering deep only had a DoT of 18. The PFF article uses a definition of 20+ DoT (or Air Yards). Further, Watkins has a target with a DoT of 14 yards in the second quarter against Indy, which he took for 24 yards

Further, PFR & PFF have differing views on what is considered "deep" and "short". If you're looking at the play level detail on PFR, "short" is 15 yards or less DoT and "deep" is more than 15 yards DoT. Hence, all Watkins receptions are considered "short".
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Jfever » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:59 pm

Currently in 6 dynasty leagues. 5 are full ppr and one is .75 ppr. I think its safe to say that full ppr is much more the standard than say no ppr.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby StableOfRBs » Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:11 pm

ericanadian wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:53 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm
Dynasty24 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:24 pm

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... -receiving

TL;DR: PFF has Goff charted with completing 6 of his 9 deep pass attempts with a QBR of 146.8 on those attempts.
Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
Technically not true as two of the targets you're considering deep only had a DoT of 18. The PFF article uses a definition of 20+ DoT (or Air Yards). Further, Watkins has a target with a DoT of 14 yards in the second quarter against Indy, which he took for 24 yards

Further, PFR & PFF have differing views on what is considered "deep" and "short". If you're looking at the play level detail on PFR, "short" is 15 yards or less DoT and "deep" is more than 15 yards DoT. Hence, all Watkins receptions are considered "short".
Ah, see I was trying to find the PFR definition for deep and short passes and couldn't find anything, figured they went with the standard NFL definitions where short is <10 yards and deep is >20, don't have a PFF subscription so I don't have access to all their data (also that 18 yarder for Kupp was from the 18-yard line so it's possible that it went 20 yards through the air when factoring in the length of the end zone but that's whatever).

Either way (and even though it's a small sample size) Kupp is getting targeted downfield more than Watkins is and, worse for Watkins owners, it's working.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby ericanadian » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:08 am

StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:11 pm
ericanadian wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:53 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:50 pm

Should also be noted that so far this year all of Watkins's targets have been considered "short" meaning they are all within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Goff has had plenty of success throwing deep in the past two games but he's also done so without targeting Watkins once. It should also be noted that Kupp has 3 "deep" targets, all completions, one of which that went for a TD.
Technically not true as two of the targets you're considering deep only had a DoT of 18. The PFF article uses a definition of 20+ DoT (or Air Yards). Further, Watkins has a target with a DoT of 14 yards in the second quarter against Indy, which he took for 24 yards

Further, PFR & PFF have differing views on what is considered "deep" and "short". If you're looking at the play level detail on PFR, "short" is 15 yards or less DoT and "deep" is more than 15 yards DoT. Hence, all Watkins receptions are considered "short".
Ah, see I was trying to find the PFR definition for deep and short passes and couldn't find anything, figured they went with the standard NFL definitions where short is <10 yards and deep is >20, don't have a PFF subscription so I don't have access to all their data (also that 18 yarder for Kupp was from the 18-yard line so it's possible that it went 20 yards through the air when factoring in the length of the end zone but that's whatever).

Either way (and even though it's a small sample size) Kupp is getting targeted downfield more than Watkins is and, worse for Watkins owners, it's working.
That's a good point and explains why I have one less pass and reception than the PFF article states (had Goff at 5 for 8). PFF is probably measuring the depth into the end zone while the NFL does not. Thanks!

I don't have a PFF subscription either (was like $200 a month, which is ridiculous), but I grab the depth of target data off of NFLGSIS. It's ugly and a bit labour intensive, but it's interesting enough to me to make it worth the effort.

Also, PFR only has short and deep passes, which is why the cutoff is at 15. I suspect they grab the definitions from NFLGSIS, and I have no idea why intermediate passes do not exist in their world.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Plank » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:19 am

so much for a college education ...
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby skip » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:31 am

I'm not going to defend Watkins' position regarding a flat earth, but the insinuation that the education system teaches things that are only factual is patently false. I'm also not sure what it has to do with playing football.
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby StableOfRBs » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:37 am

skip wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:31 am I'm not going to defend Watkins' position regarding a flat earth, but the insinuation that the education system teaches things that are only factual is patently false. I'm also not sure what it has to do with playing football.
It means he's not factoring in the curvature of the earth on his routes, that's why his career catch rate is so low, obviously
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Re: Sammy Watkins to Rams

Postby Jfever » Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:13 am

No need to dig too deep & read into the education system and worry about what it teachs factual or not - here. This really isn't about that. It's about Watkins ability to ignore evidence that is alarming / troubling.

Flat earth...... Give me a break. What.... are we living in the 13th - 15th century now? Um. No. its 2017.
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